Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Week 17: High tide

The final week of the season is notoriously hard to pick, and yet Down and Distance went 12-4 to finish the season at 171-85, or 66.8%, which is a hair above the two-thirds line that delineates your ass from a hole in the ground. I'll let the boys at Sports Frog figure out where I finished in the final standings, but it may be pretty high. For those out there pulling for D and D, I thank you.

The bizarre nature of every season's Week 17 is best summed up not game-by-game, but rather archetype-by-archetype. There are only a few categories, but every team inevitably fits into one of them.

THE TEAM THAT MUST WIN, AND DOES
Played this year by: Washington, Tennessee, Cleveland
It's not the Browns' fault that their victory was made irrelevant by day's end.

THE TEAM THAT CAN'T TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS
Played this year by: Minnesota, New Orleans
Even if they'd won, the Vikings and Saints still would have been left outside. Tough titty. When you need to win to get in, you win. But the Vikings couldn't do it last week, either.

THE TEAM WITH "NOTHING" TO PLAY FOR, EXCEPT THE JOY OF FUCKING UP SOMEONE ELSE'S PROGRAM
Played this year by: Chicago, Denver
They may have had crappy years, but neither the Bears nor the Broncos are the kind of team to roll over and let someone else come in and claim a playoff spot on their home field. That's the sort of thing the Vikings do.

THE TEAM THAT'S ALREADY IN THE PLAYOFFS, BUT WANTS TO GO OFF ON A GOOD NOTE BY KICKING THE SHIT OUT OF A DIVISIONAL PUNK
Played this year by: Green Bay, San Diego

THE TEAM THAT'S ALREADY IN THE PLAYOFFS, AND SHOULD REST ITS STARTERS
Played this year by: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Dallas
Note that I said these teams should rest the starters. Dallas didn't, and the Cowboys now look even more toothless than they did after losing to the Eagles. Jacksonville didn't need to beat Houston. The Colts didn't need to beat Tennessee, but they could have, if they'd even tried. Considering all the injuries Indy has battled through this year, I guess I'm OK with Manning and the rest taking the second half off, even though it'll probably cost them their shot at repeating. What I'm not OK with (nor was Madden) is the decision to pack it in when down by less than a touchdown with three minutes left. Even if you play your reserves, you still have to try to win the damn game. The only exception is when losing would get you a better playoff opponent (see New England throwing the last game of 2005 so they could get the Jaguars rather than the Steelers). That wasn't the case here. For shame.

THE TEAM THAT'S ALREADY IN THE PLAYOFFS, AND WOULD LIKE TO REST ITS STARTERS, BUT JUST CAN'T FOR REASONS LARGER THAN ITSELF
Played this year by: New England, N.Y. Giants
To the chagrin of the 1972 Dolphins, the Patriots figured they'd made it this far, they might as well go for 16-0. To the everlasting credit of the Giants, they also played this game to win. (Well, except for that period when they tried to sit on a 5-point lead. You do that against the Patriots for even a second, and they'll slit your throat.) Even if it costs the Giants down the road in terms of injuries, it was the right call.

THE TEAM THAT'S ALREADY IN THE PLAYOFFS, BUT REALLY SHOULDN'T REST ITS STARTERS BECAUSE THE LAST THING IT NEEDS IS ANOTHER FLACCID PERFORMANCE
Played this year by: Tampa Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh

THE TEAM PLAYING ONLY FOR PRIDE
Played this year by: Cincinnati, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Atlanta(!), Houston, N.Y. Jets, Carolina, Arizona

THE TEAM THAT DOESN'T EVEN HAVE PRIDE LEFT TO PLAY FOR
Played this year by: San Francisco, St. Louis, Miami, Baltimore, Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit
Well, OK, the Ravens did have Brian Billick's job to play for. Perhaps that's why the Steelers let them win. Didn't work.

CORRECT PICKS
New England 38, N.Y. Giants 35
Chicago 33, New Orleans 25
Cleveland 20, San Francisco 7
Green Bay 34, Detroit 13
Houston 42, Jacksonville 28
Philadelphia 17, Buffalo 9
San Diego 30, Oakland 17
N.Y. Jets 13, Kansas City 10
Washington 27, Dallas 6
Arizona 48, St. Louis 19
Denver 22, Minnesota 19 (OT)
Tennessee 16, Indianapolis 10

INCORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati 38, Miami 25
Atlanta 44, Seattle 41
Carolina 31, Tampa Bay 23
Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 21


PICKS
THIS WEEK: 12-4
SEASON: 171-85 (66.8%)
(2006 through Week 17: 154-102, 60.2%)
(2005 through Week 17: 172-84, 67.2%)




FINAL KA-POWER RANKINGS FOR 2007
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS have wrapped up their third year with -- duh -- New England in the top spot. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 17 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 17 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: FIN = final ranking. W16 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score. P? = team in playoffs?)
FINW16TEAMPWRREC.P?
1 1 Patriots100.0016-0Y
2 2 Colts 83.5713-3Y
3 6 Packers 72.8913-3Y
4 3 Steelers 71.0910-6Y
5 7 Chargers 70.5411-5Y
6 4 Cowboys 67.7313-3Y
7 5 Jaguars 64.9611-5Y
8 8 Seahawks 64.8810-6Y
9 9 Bucs 57.85 9-7Y
1010Vikings 53.61 8-8
1111Eagles 49.82 9-9
1216Redskins 46.68 9-7Y
1312Giants 45.5610-6Y
1413Browns 44.7710-6
1515Titans 41.7010-6Y
1619Cardinals41.63 8-8
1717Bengals 39.55 7-9
1818Texans 39.54 8-8
1914Saints 38.71 7-9
2020Bears 37.28 7-9
2122Broncos 20.75 7-9
2221Lions 20.43 7-9
2324Panthers 19.42 7-9
2423Jets 17.90 4-12
2527Ravens 13.71 5-11
2626Bills 13.23 7-9
2725Raiders 13.14 4-12
2828Chiefs 9.00 4-12
2932Falcons 3.15 4-12
3031Dolphins 1.33 1-15
313049ers 0.15 5-11
3229Rams 0.00 3-13
Teams eliminated this week* from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Steelers, Jaguars. Teams previously eliminated: Dolphins, Rams, Jets, Falcons, Bengals, Texans, Raiders, Bears, Vikings, 49ers, Broncos, Cardinals, Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Panthers, Saints, Bills, Chargers, Redskins, Titans, Lions, Browns, Bucs, Giants, Seahawks.
*The Steelers had posted five losses, but had proved they can win the Super Bowl with an 11-5 record. This week they lost No. 6.
Teams remaining in Super Bowl championship consideration: Patriots, Colts, Cowboys, Packers.

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