Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Week 16 with excuses galore

It should be quite clear by now that Down and Distance is not going to finish the 2006 NFL regular season having correctly picked two-thirds of the winners, as was the case last year. This week I went 8-8 in the picks, and with one week left to go in the season, my record stands at 144-96. Last year, by contrast, I was 164-76 at this point. That was 20 games better than I'm faring this year. And it was a better-than-Vegas success rate of 68.3%, compared with a flat 60% this year. Even if I ran the table next week, the best I could do for '06 would be a paltry 62.5%.

But it's not just me, thankfully. Oriole Magic, the front-runner in our picks league for 2006, is, by my reckoning, just 153-87 going into the final week. Last year's leader after 16 weeks, Monsters of the Midway, was 170-70, or 17 games better.

So what's going on? Have we all gotten a lot less prescient, very suddenly? No, the NFL has just gotten a lot less polarized, very suddenly.

"Parity" is a word you hear a lot, one that people use to describe whatever they happen to think is wrong about the NFL. It's commonly used incorrectly to describe the phenomenon of sudden ascendance: for example, the Rams going from 4-12 in 1998 to 13-3 in 1999, or the 2004 Steelers jumping from 6-10 to 15-1, or this year's Saints, who've gone from 3-13 to 10-5. (There's also sudden collapse: The 2002 Super Bowl teams going from 23-9 to 11-21.) That's not parity, however; that's volatility. Parity simply means equality. Under a true parity system, there are no "good teams" and no "bad teams," no haves and have-nots. Everyone is just average.

A generally accepted definition of an "average" team in the NFL is one that finishes a season with 7 to 9 wins. There isn't much difference between a 7-9 record, an 8-8 record and a 9-7 record, except for a few random bounces of the ball. Under that definition, last season produced the fewest "average" teams of any year in the salary cap era, which began in 1994. Here are the number of 7- to 9-win teams in each of the past 15 years:


YEAR
7- to 9-
WIN TEAMS
20055
200411
20036
200215
200110
20009
199913
19989
199710
199613
199515
199413
199312
19926
19917
19907

With only five "average" teams last year (Atlanta at 8-8 and Dallas, Miami, Minnesota and San Diego all at 9-7), the league saw its greatest polarization in recent memory. Most of the franchises were definably "good" or definably "bad," and most matchups had a clear favorite. The pickin' was easy!

This year is totally different It's like the mid-'90s all over again. As of now, there are 12 teams at 8-7 or 7-8 and are thus guaranteed to finish with 7 to 9 wins. (They're evenly divided between the AFC and NFC, by the way) Seven other teams are either 6-9 or 9-6 and could climb into (or fall back into) the "average" pack. When 19 teams out of 32 are decidedly average, picking winners consistently becomes a nightmare. That's why my record -- and everyone's record -- has been so dismal in 2006.

Just for grins, here's my week-by-week record in 2005, and this year:

WK'05'06CHANGE
111-59-7-2
27-912-4+5
39-58-6-1
411-38-6-3
58-612-2+4
610-49-4-1
78-66-7-2
810-46-8-4
912-26-8-6
108-610-6+2
1111-510-6-1
1213-311-5-2
1314-28-8-6
1413-310-6-3
1510-611-5+1
169-78-8-1
178-8???

OK, now that I've used science to prove beyond a doubt that the problem is the National Football League rather than me, let's get to the recaps:

CORRECT PICKS
Green Bay 9, Minnesota 7: I can't imagine this dreadful Thursday night display is going to convince anyone that they just have to have the NFL Network. America loves field goals, even when they're no good!

Kansas City 20, Oakland 9: And for those asking whether the NFL Network could have lined up a game any more desultory than Thursday's Vikings-Packers showdown, the answer is yes: Saturday's Chiefs-Raiders hoedown. The Oakland defense is more or less stout, but the Oakland offense is capable of nothing -- literally, nothing -- so your typical Oakland game involves the Raiders' opponent "jumping out" to a 7-3 or 10-6 lead and then just running out the clock. For like 45 minutes. If there's anyone to feel sorry for in Oakland, I'd pick quarterback Andrew Walter. You can see it all over the poor guy's face: He knows that this is not only the last year he'll start in the NFL, it's probably also the last year he'll even make a roster. Walter rewrote the Pac-10 record book while at Arizona State, but now his football career -- the NFL dreams he's harbored since boyhood -- have dissipated into the chilly night. If I'm Brady Quinn, looking at the possibility of going to the Raiders with the first pick in the draft, my pretty white teeth are chattering uncontrollably.

Chicago 26, Detroit 21: Here are some receivers who didn't drop the winning touchdown pass for Detroit as time ran out Sunday: Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Roddy White, Reggie Brown, Vincent Jackson, Chris Henry. They didn't drop the winning touchdown pass for the Lions on Sunday because way back in 2005, the Lions drafted Mike Williams instead of any of them. To be fair, Roddy White and Chris Henry probably would have dropped the pass, too. If I'm Brady Quinn, looking at the possibility of going to the Lions with the first pick in the draft, my pretty white underpants just turned dazzling yellow. I've chosen to focus on the Lions here because there's nothing left worth saying about the Bears.

New Orleans 30, N.Y. Giants 7: There are two definitions of "discipline." One is "punishment," the other is "self-control." The first kind of disciplinarian, then, is someone who subjects his charges to all sorts of ridiculous rules and shitty grudges and punishes them publicly when they don't comply. That's Tom Coughlin. The second kind is someone who lays out specifically how he expects his charges to produce, then holds them accountable for meeting those expectations. That's Sean Payton. Is it any wonder then, that after both teams had a rough first half, the Saints responded with 24 unanswered points, while the Giants simply quit?

New England 24, Jacksonville 21: Look, I've finally become a Patriots fan, and I'm glad to see they're winning, but I don't know. They just look ... unconvincing. I know they can beat anybody, but will they?

San Diego 20, Seattle 17: Seattle can take satisfaction in being the first Super Bowl runner-up in five years to make the playoffs. Then again, if you need a loss by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16 to win the division, you're really only making the playoffs on a technicality. On the San Diego side, Philip Rivers needs to get his shit together pronto. The past couple of weeks, he's played like one of those Garrardesque quarterbacks who "just win games." And you know what happens to them.

Denver 24, Cincinnati 23: We can talk about the botched snap on the extra point all we want. Carson Palmer would probably prefer we do, because something's wrong with his throwing motion. There's no way this game should have even been close. If Palmer had hit his open receivers, this would have been a romp for the Bengals. Well, if the receivers had also caught the balls and held onto them. Which is a big "if."

N.Y. Jets 13, Miami 10: ESPN kept showing us footage from the Second Miracle at the Meadowlands in a vain attempt to fool us into thinking we were eating something besides a rain-basted turd served in an empty stadium. All that stands between the Jets and the playoffs now is the 2-13 Raiders. But don't count on it.

INCORRECT PICKS
Baltimore 31, Pittsburgh 7: The Steelers had "climbed back into playoff contention" by stealing milk money from the Buccaneers, Browns and Panthers by a combined 84-13. So it was refreshing to see the Ravens come into Pittsburgh and, for the second time in five weeks, pull down the Steelers' pants in front of all the girls. And the Steelers weren't wearing any underwear!

St. Louis 37, Washington 31 (OT): Your 2006 Redskins: Beat the 2-1 Jaguars, lose to the 0-5 Titans. Beat the 4-3 Cowboys, lose to the 2-7 Bucs. Beat the 6-4 Panthers, lose to the 5-6 Falcons. Beat the 9-4 Saints, lose to the 6-8 Rams. Oh sure, talk about Marc Bulger if you must. Someone has to play for the NFC in the Pro Bowl.

Tennessee 30, Buffalo 29: You know, I hate it when coaches kick late field goals when they really need to be going for it on fourth down. In the final minute Sunday, however, the Bills needed a 45-yard field goal to win the game, but Dick Jauron instead elected to go for it on fourth down. To go for the touchdown on fourth down. When they were down by 1 point. When their kicker was 5-for-5. The X-factor in this game wasn't Vince Young. It was stupidity and cowardice. I guess that's an X-factor and a Y-factor, actually.

Tanpa Bay 22, Cleveland 7: Remember how Derek Anderson had made Charlie Frye expendable? Well, since this game pretty much locks up the No. 3 draft pick for the Browns, it looks like we'll get the chance to see whether hometown hero Troy Smith will make them both expendable.

Houston 27, Indianapolis 24: The Colts had six possessions and scored on four of them. Unfortunately, the Texans had seven possessions and scored on five of them. The Colts have always had the ability to score on two-thirds of their possessions; the difference this year is that even bottom-scrapers like the Texans, with washouts like Ron Dayne, can run the ball at will and outscore them. Who looks the worst after this game? Probably the Bengals.

Carolina 10, Atlanta 3: Last week Michael Vick threw four touchdown passes, but all anyone wanted to talk about was the fact that he took himself off the field with two minutes remaining and the game still somewhat within reach. The week Michael Vick became the first quarterback to amass 1,000 yards rushing in a season, but all anyone wants to talk about is the fact that the game was within reach all damn day and Atlanta's offensive juggernaut could put up just 3 measly points. A Falcons fan reading this might get disgusted and say, "Whatever Vick does, he gets criticized. Vick just can't win." I agree!

Arizona 26, San Francisco 20: After all the "Leinart + Edge = Super Bowl" excitement and all the "Arizona-is-turning-it-around" talk this year, the Cardinals this week improved to 5-10. After next week's presumptive loss at San Diego, they'll be 5-11. Last year, before they turned the whole franchise around, they were 5-11. The year before that? 6-10. That's the Way Of The Cardinals. If in the offseason they can sign the entire Indianapolis offensive line, the bulk of Chicago's special teams, and the entire Baltimore defense, they might well go winless in 2007.

Philadelphia 23, Dallas 7: Heh. Eagles fans think Jeff Garcia is the answer. That's like thinking Tony Romo is going to get you to the Super Bowl.

THIS WEEK: 8-8
SEASON: 144-96
(60.0%)
(2005 through Week 16: 164-76)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 16
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W16 = This week's ranking. W15 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
W16W15TEAMPOWW16W15TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001717Seahawks 45.10
24 Ravens 95.131818Dolphins 47.48
32 Chargers 91.481920Vikings 43.15
43 Patriots 89.982021Rams 42.51
55 Jaguars 80.202119Falcons 42.42
67 Saints 75.522223Panthers 36.41
76 Cowboys 70.482322Titans 35.87
811Eagles 66.172424Redskins 33.83
99 Colts 64.842525Cardinals33.46
1010Bengals 62.882626Packers 28.64
118 Steelers59.312727Lions 24.12
1212Broncos 55.742830Texans 21.61
1315Chiefs 53.96292949ers 21.20
T1416Jets 51.083028Browns 18.75
T1414Bills 51.083131Bucs 11.34
1613Giants 47.483232Raiders 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): None. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Saints.

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Week 15, when everyone gets blown out

Down and Distance went 11-5 in the picks this week. Not bad. Not terribly good, either. I don't know where I got Arizona over Denver, but I totally predicted that Vince Young would lead the Titans to victory over the Jaguars. He just wins!

CORRECT PICKS
Dallas 38, Atlanta 28: Many media historians say that TV network news came of age with the JFK assassination, and that cable news did so with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. From watching Saturday's post-game coverage, it appears that the NFL Network views Terrell Owens spitting on DeAngelo Hall as its equivalent of JFK and the Gulf War, plus Pearl Harbor, 9/11 and that girl who fell down the well in Texas.

N.Y. Jets 26, Minnesota 13: We'd all been expecting the Vikings to bench Brad Johnson, but we weren't expecting shitty defense to be the precipitating factor.

Buffalo 21, Miami 0: I've finally figured out where I've seen these Bills before: they're the Green Bay Packers of the early 1980s. Capable of beating anybody, capable of losing to anybody, capable of shutting out an opponent, capable of getting shut out. And never a real threat to make the playoffs. J.P. Losman is Lynn Dickey, Lee Evans is James Lofton, Mike Mularkey is Bart Starr, and Dick Jauron is Forest Gregg. Willis McGahee is both Gerry Ellis and Eddie Lee Ivery. I've seen these Dolphins, too: the Buffalo Bills of the late 1990s.

Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 17: Well, of course. As soon as the Jaguars franchise puts all its eggs in David Garrard's basket, Garrard goes and pees in it. With this game, Vince Young made a run at Garrard for the title of "quarterback most likely to get credit for victories that were achieved in spite of him, not because of him." Also known as the Kyle Orton Trophy.

Chicago 34, Tampa Bay 31 (OT): Devin Hester's fumble on a kick return let the Buccaneers back in the game, and yet you didn't see it anywhere in the highlights. Gee, wonder why. Speaking of media darlings, the Bears defense gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter. In their three previous games, the Bucs scored a total of 19.

Pittsburgh 37, Carolina 3: Turns out quitters really don't win. When you see how Chris Weinke and Brad Basanez have spun their wheels in the absence of Jake Delhomme, you have to ask again why Carolina was so quick to cut Stefan LeFors.

New England 40, Houston 7: Like just about everybody except Jacksonville, the Patriots take a welcome break from their struggles by kicking the shit out of the Houston Texans.

Green Bay 17, Detroit 9: It's just sad to see what's happened to this classic rivalry. It's become just a matchup of two also-rans, whereas not too long ago it was a twice-yearly clash of a perennial league powerhouse and ... well, and a perennial also-ran. It's sad if you're a Packer fan, I guess. If you're a Lions fan, it's just life as you know it.

Baltimore 27, Cleveland 17: Watching former Ravens starting QB Kyle Boller come into the game after Steve McNair's injury, I thought about the 2001 AFC Championship Game, when Drew Bledsoe, who had also lost his starting job, led the Patriots to victory while subbing for the injured Tom Brady. And I thought to myself, "This isn't like that at all."

St. Louis 20, Oakland 0: It's the third time this year the Raiders have been shut out. How bad is it in Oakland? Aaron Brooks is their best hope at quarterback.

San Diego 20, Kansas City 9: Even people who have LaDanian Tomlinson in their fantasy leagues are tired of hearing from guys who have LaDanian Tomlinson in their fantasy leagues.

INCORRECT PICKS
San Francisco 24, Seattle 14: Here's how the Seahawks finished in the first seven years of Mike Holmgren's tenure: 9-7, 6-10, 9-7, 7-9, 10-6, 9-7, 13-3. Hmm, which one is the fluke? Some may say that this game shows that the 49ers of old are making a comeback. Others (me) say that the Seahawks of old are merely reasserting themselves.

Washington 16, New Orleans 10: In the Washington victory, Ladell Betts once again demonstrated everything that's wrong with the Redskins. Wait: Betts ran for 119 yards and had another 43 yards receiving, so what's the problem? The problem is that when Clinton Portis went down with an injury in preseason, the Redskins panicked and traded two high draft choices for T.J. Duckett. The problem is that Duckett has barely seen the field because Betts has played so well. The problem is that the Redskins threw away draft picks because they had no clue about the talent level of the guy who has been on their roster for more than five years. Still, nice win, Skins!

Philadelphia 36, N.Y. Giants 22: Eagles fill-in QB Jeff Garcia has reportedly said he's playing for a starting position somewhere next year. He certainly played like a second-stringer in Detroit last year, and look where that got him. I'd say something about the game, which I watched from start to finish, but I just don't care.

Denver 37, Arizona 20: It was worth taking a shot on the Cardinals, regardless of the outcome. If I'm Matt Leinart, I'm standing on the sidelines thinking about all the national championships I won and all the starlets I sqwanked in college and wondering how the hell I wound up on Arizona's Souped-Up Scooter to Hell while Jay Cutler -- Vanderbilt alumnus Jay Cutler -- gets to sling it around in Denver.

Indianapolis 34, Cincinnati 16: Despite the 9-0 start, Indianapolis had been having trouble all year because opposing defenses were stacking their coverages to take away the deep passing game, forcing the Colts to rely on short throws and runs. That meant more plays per drive, which meant more opportunities for error, which contributed to the Colts losing three out of four games. Monday night, however, the Colts embraced the new reality and didn't even try throwing downfield. Think the Monday Night Football crew made the connection? Ha. Kornheiser was too busy telling us (over and over) that Colts, who have already clinched their division title, "needed this game more" than the Bengals, who are struggling to make the playoffs as a wild card. Also, Matthew McConaughey was in the booth, which gave everyone up there a chance to indulge their man-crushes.

THIS WEEK: 11-5
SEASON: 136-88
(60.7%)
(2005 through Week 14: 155-69)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 15
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W15 = This week's ranking. W14 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W15W14TEAMPOWW15W14TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001716Seahawks44.04
22 Chargers90.591814Dolphins43.93
35 Patriots90.141918Falcons 42.78
43 Ravens 88.122017Vikings 42.04
54 Jaguars 81.462122Rams 38.52
66 Cowboys 73.302224Titans 32.77
77 Saints 69.032321Panthers32.40
812Steelers64.782425Redskins32.21
99 Colts 64.742523Cardinals29.21
108 Bengals62.242628Packers 26.28
1110Eagles 60.972727Lions 22.22
1215Broncos54.162829Browns 20.49
1311Giants 51.83293049ers 19.48
1420Bills 49.803026Texans 16.97
1513Chiefs 49.173132Bucs 3.24
1619Jets 48.583231Raiders 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Saints. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Week 14: Two TDs down, one FG to go

A 10-6 record in the picks this week doesn't look too hot on its face, but it was better than most. Nearly everyone picked Indianapolis, New England, Seattle, San Francisco, Dallas and the Jets to win. But I'm surprised at how many also expected the Lions to beat the Vikings and Baltimore to lose in K.C.

CORRECT PICKS
Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 7: The Browns weren't going to win in any event, but had their receivers been able to hold onto the ball, they might have been able to last past the first quarter.

N.Y. Giants 27, Carolina 13: The Unfulfilled Expectations Bowl. I said before the season even started that the Panthers would regret cutting Stefan LeFors for Chris Weinke. And look what happened. Weinke's now 1-15 lifetime as a starter.

Philadelphia 21, Washington 19: On the "Blitz" segment of ESPN's SportsCenter, bald idjit Chris Berman said that when it comes to the Eagles' current QB, there's a simple truth: "Jeff Garcia wins." Except, of course, in Cleveland (3-7 as a starter) and Detroit (1-5). In this game the Redskins had 20 first downs to the Eagles' 14, outgained Philadelphia 415 yards to 263, and held the ball for 15 minutes longer. So why did they lose? Because they're the Redskins.

Tennessee 26, Houston 20: Vince Young's incredible game-winning scramble for a touchdown in overtime spared his coach, Jeff Fisher, from scrutiny for his weak-kneed game management at the end of regulation. On fourth-and-2 at midfield with the score tied and less than a minute on the clock, Fisher elected to punt and play for overtime. You've put your season on Young's shoulders, but you won't put the game in his hands? It's a good thing Tennessee won the coin toss in OT.

Cincinnati 27, Oakland 10: The Raiders intercepted Carson Palmer three times, which increased Palmer's INT total for the year nearly 40%. It was the first time Palmer had been picked thrice since 2004, when he was functionally a rookie. And yet you'll note that the Bengals still won by three scores. That's because giving the ball to the Oakland offense is like giving the Glengarry leads to Shelley Levene: "To give them to you is just throwing them away."

Minnesota 30, Detroit 20: Earlier this year the Lions gave up 201 yards and a touchdown pass to Brad Johnson's 38-year-old arm. There's no shame in that. Sunday, the Lions gave up a touchdown run to Johnson's 38-year-old legs. Shame? Someone ought to get publicly flogged for that. The guy's even older than me, and I'm ancient. He hadn't run for a TD in five years.

Baltimore 20, Kansas City 10: Kansas City fans will likely holler for the return of Damon Huard. It's easier than facing the truth.

Atlanta 17, Tampa Bay 6: If you can't win the game yourself, it helps to have a division opponent who'll just hand it to you.

San Diego 48, Denver 20: For one quarter (the third), Jay Cutler looked like John Elway, then he went back to looking like Jake Plummer. A young Jake Plummer.

Chicago 42, St. Louis 27: Who cares that Devin Hester returned two kickoffs for touchdowns, making the difference for the Bears amid another shaky performance by their defense? The important thing, according to the Monday Night Football crew, is that Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman didn't shoot any of his teammates in the face. All the Bears' problems are solved! Judging by the crowd shots and the noise in the Edward Jones Dome, the Bears continue to "travel well," as they say in college, but man, are their fans an ugly lot. If I saw one more waxy, red-faced fuck in a Brian Urlacher jersey dumping another 18-ounce beer over his triple chin, I was going to turn off the TV in disgust. But Joe Theismann ("Torry Holt can make those plays, and he does make those plays") chased me away just in time.

INCORRECT PICKS

Miami 21, New England 0
Jacksonville 44, Indianapolis 17
The Manning-Brady debate takes an interesting turn: They both suck! Which loss was the ugliest? Seeing as how the Dolphins have been giving the Patriots fits for years (remember?) and also how the Colts have been allowed to skate with a rep for always "finding a way to win" against the Jaguars, I'll go with Indy's embarrassing ass-kicking in Jacksonville. It was a total meltdown, and it was totally inevitable. Both these teams were thoroughly outcoached, but only one would say so publicly ... and it was Bill Belichick who did the admitting.

Green Bay 30, San Francisco 19: Man, this was like watching those great Packers-Niners duels of the mid-1990s, when they were slugging it out for NFC dominance. I mean, you had Brett Favre out there slinging it around. And you had ... Well, you had Brett Favre out the slinging it around. And they were playing at Candlestick. And it was Sunday. Hey, look: Balloons!

Buffalo 31, N.Y. Jets 13: The road to the playoffs was laid out in front of the Jets, and they immediately slipped on dog feces. And they did it at home. Against the Bills. Maybe the Jets got caught looking ahead, but to whom? The Vikings? The Raiders?

Arizona 27, Seattle 21: Heh.

New Orleans 42, Dallas 17: The Cowboys were the quasi-official team to beat in the NFC for exactly seven days. New Orleans wrested the front-runner's sash from Dallas with a convincing Sunday night victory, but the Saints wore it for just a day, before Chicago put away the hapless Rams and were declared cured by conventional wisdom.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 125-83
(60.1%)
(2005 through Week 14: 145-63)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 14
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W14 = This week's ranking. W13 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
W14W13TEAMPOWW14W13TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001719Vikings 44.82
24 Chargers 85.571820Falcons 44.26
33 Ravens 84.241914Jets 43.54
46 Jaguars 82.572021Bills 42.18
52 Patriots 79.012117Panthers 42.07
65 Cowboys 70.262222Rams 32.59
78 Saints 68.632323Cardinals32.18
89 Bengals 65.982426Titans 29.68
97 Colts 59.202524Redskins 29.66
1011Eagles 56.372627Texans 25.08
1113Giants 54.472728Lions 23.91
1215Steelers54.042829Packers 23.66
1312Chiefs 51.142925Browns 22.00
1418Dolphins49.96303049ers 15.88
1510Broncos 47.603131Raiders 7.30
1616Seahawks45.523232Bucs 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Cowboys, Seahawks. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos.

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Week 13 and no one's lucky

Ugh. 8-8 this week in the picks. I take solace in the fact that no one did better than 10-6. It's cold comfort, but hey, it's December.

CORRECT PICKS
New England 28, Detroit 21: "Frankly, the Lions deserved to beat the Patriots." I don't know that that sentence has been written before, at least not sarcastically. Arizona's win at St. Louis has cleared room in the league cellar, so now Detroit just has to get past Oakland for the right to draft Brady Quinn, who will then bear the blame for everything that's wrong with the Lions.

San Diego 24, Buffalo 21: Just because a team hails from a warm-weather city doesn't mean it's totally incapable of playing north of the equator after Oct. 1.

Chicago 23, Minnesota 21: Remember when the Bears beat the Cardinals, and everyone said it was a wake-up call for the team? How they couldn't keep counting on defense, special teams, and the other teams' errors to bail them out? How they just had to play better on offense? And yet they keep playing worse. Vital stats from Chicago's Week 6 victory at Arizona and Sunday's game vs. the Vikings:
METRICvs. ARZvs. MIN
Yards gained by Bears 168 107
Yards gained by opponent 286 348
Bears 1st downs 9 6
Opponent 1st downs 17 21
Points by Bears offense 3 7
Points by Bears defense/special teams 21 16
Rex Grossman passer rating 10.7 1.3
Win? Yes Yes
Score 24-23 23-21
All Kyle Orton does is win!

Atlanta 24, Washington 14: I had originally written "The Falcons may have saved their season," but in reality they did no such thing.

New Orleans 34, San Francisco 10: There's a guy in your office who picked Reggie Bush way too early in his fantasy draft and had started him every game, hoping each time that it would be the week Bush finally broke out. Then, this Sunday, he finally gave up and benched Bush in favor of, I don't know, Laurence Maroney. Then Bush went for four TDs. But I don't have to tell you any of this, because he won't shut up about it.

Pittsburgh 20, Tampa Bay 3: I thought it was a bit silly for Green Bay to go for the field goal while losing 31-0 in the third quarter. Then I saw Tampa Bay go for a field goal when down 20-0 on the final play of the game. Talk about ridiculous. I wrote last year that putting up only 3 points is even more pathetic than getting shut out, and I stand by it. I'm sure this game was nice and cathartic for Steeler fans, but from a distance, it was just sad. Both these teams were in the playoffs last year, and it's likely that both Fox and the flex-schedule people at NBC at one point saw this as a marquee matchup. Instead, it was just another late-season collision of two buses headed nowhere. Well, only one bus, when you think about it.

Jacksonville 24, Miami 10: Here's how to pick a Jaguars game: Select a number at random. If it's an odd number, multiply by 3; if even, by 2.5. Now double it. Subtract from it from the square of your original number. Now close your eyes and flip a coin.

Dallas 23, N.Y. Giants 20: Sunday's adequate performance aside, everyone in New York is screaming about Eli Manning, but what are the Giants going to do? Bench him? For whom? Elisabeth Hasselbeck's husband is in uniform mostly for self-esteem reasons, and Jared Lorenzen remains on the roster only as a cruel frat prank.

INCORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati 13, Baltimore 7: I heard more than once, "If this game had been played in Baltimore in January, the result would have been different. Yes, but it wasn't. And it wasn't. Me, I'm as guilty as everyone else.

Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 17: This would normally be the space in which the Titans are praised for again devising a game plan that matched their strengths to the Colts' weakness. But I can't get past the powder-blue pants.

Arizona 34, St. Louis 20: Those fantasy owners who took a chance on a certain Arizona Cardinals running back are looking pretty smart today. I mean, I wish I'd had the foresight to pick up Marcel Shipp.

Cleveland 31, Kansas City 28 (OT): Who is Derek Anderson? Suddenly the most popular guy in Cleveland. Just like Charlie Frye was for a few weeks before him, Trent Dilfer for a few weeks before him, Kelly Holcomb for a few weeks before him and Jeff Garcia for those bizarre six or seven weeks in 2003.

Houston 23, Oakland 14: If you can't beat the Texans and their putrid offense (minus-5 yards net passing) when you have an excellent defense and are playing at home, don't even bother coming out.

N.Y. Jets 38, Green Bay 10: CBS has to have a pretty weak slate of games to send its No. 1 announcing team to call the 7-4, probably-not-going-anywhere Jets against the 4-7, definitely-not-going-anywhere Packers. In picking Green Bay, I had this whole "feisty, upset minded Packers playing at home" thing spinning in my head. Then Jim Nantz reminded me that only one team has been shut out at home twice this year: the Packers. Thanks, dick.

Seattle 23, Denver 20: The Broncos put Jay Cutler in at quarterback because Jake Plummer kept fumbling snaps and exchanges and throwing costly interceptions.

Philadelphia 27, Carolina 24: Jeff Garcia was this close to being put out of our misery.

THIS WEEK: 8-8
SEASON: 115-77
(59.9%)
(2005 through Week 13: 132-60)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 13
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W13 = This week's ranking. W12 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
W13W12TEAMPOWW13W12TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001715Panthers44.50
22 Patriots 85.101814Dolphins 40.63
33 Ravens 80.681917Vikings 39.08
44 Chargers 80.262021Falcons 38.63
55 Cowboys 77.142122Bills 33.80
66 Jaguars 75.482220Rams 33.08
77 Colts 65.262328Cardinals27.10
810Saints 61.752423Redskins 27.02
98 Bengals 60.122527Browns 24.92
109 Broncos 56.002626Titans 24.54
1111Eagles 54.292730Texans 23.08
1212Chiefs 52.322824Lions 22.85
1313Giants 48.802925Packers 16.76
1419Jets 46.84302949ers 14.50
1518Steelers46.483131Raiders 8.61
1616Seahawks45.033232Bucs 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Chiefs, Broncos. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Week 12: Meet our new draft pick

What a weekend. First I hit the Turkey Day Hat Trick by picking all three Thanksgiving Day games correctly. Then this little guy made an appearance at 4:46 p.m. on Friday:

Quentin, and he ain't no Jammer

When all was said and done, I was 11-5 in the picks for Week 12. I could have gone 14-2 if only the 49ers could finish and Eli Manning and Rex Grossman would quit trying to outdo each other in regressing the farthest the fastest.

CORRECT PICKS
Miami 27, Detroit 10: Deacon Jones once memorably told Peter Brady that a real man can both play tackle football and sing in the glee club, and that a love of making music doesn't mean you're a pussy. Peter Brady lived that advice, and now he's a buff motherfucker peddling workout scams on TV. Miami Dolphins quarterback Joey Harrington also learned this lesson, for better or worse. You know who hasn't learned it? The Detroit Lions. Detroit, a franchise always in search of newer and deeper lows, reached a new one during Week 12 -- a display of childishness, classlessness and scumminess that was all the more appalling because it came on Thanksgiving Day, before a nationally televised game. The Lions, who host (and lose) a Thanksgiving game every fall, this year were facing the Harrington-led Dolphins. There was no question that Harrington was going to be booed by the Detroit fans. Harrington, whom Detroit made the No. 3 overall pick in the 2002 draft, spent four years with the Lions and wound up saddled with a ridiculously outsized portion of the blame for the culture of losing that the franchise has wallowed in for decades. Hell, Harrington himself expected Lions fans to give him an earful. What he probably didn't expect was that the Ford Field gameday operations staff would bend over backwards to try to mock and humiliate him. Actually, maybe he did expect it. He'd spent enough time with the Lions to know what a cesspool this organization is. To sum up what happened: Before each game, a team decides whether it wants its offense or defense introduced over the PA system. The Dolphins chose to introduce their defense. The Detroit PA crew went ahead and introduced the Miami defense ... and Joey Harrington. Cue the boos. Worse, the music chosen for the introductions was Piano Man, mocking Harrington for his once-featured-on-MNF piano playing. Some teams are poorly run. Some teams are poorly managed. Some teams are awful on the field. But the rat-fuck operation in Detroit tops them all. Is it any wonder that the Lions are the worst team in the league? Is it any wonder that no matter who plays quarterback for the Lions, the result is always the same? And is it any wonder that Matt Millen, the Lions' craven, shitty general manager, the man who makes all the decisions, hires the coaches, picks the players, sets the tone for the franchise and yet blames everyone but himself for repeated failure, is a Ford employee?

Dallas 38, Tampa Bay 10: Romo, shlomo. The best news out of Dallas this week is that Bill Parcells finally gave Mike Vanderjagt the boot. And unlike Vanderjagt, Parcells made solid contact. Thus Vanderjagt completes the quickest transition from unflappable-top-drawer kicker to ineffective-head-case kicker since Martin Grammatica. And who did the Cowboys sign to replace Vandy? Martin Grammatica.

Kansas City 19, Denver 10: If there's one thing common to players and coaches around the league, it's the way they bitch about "the media" drumming up controversies based on unsourced reports. So if you're Mike Shanahan and the subject is your (at the time speculative) pending quarterback change, what do you do when the "media" in question is the league-owned and -operated NFL Network?

New Orleans 31, Atlanta 13: Oh, and fuck you, too ya tool.

Cincinnati 30, Cleveland 0: And here I'd given up on the Bengals.

Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 0: I've never really liked the Ravens. Fortunately, Joey Porter got me to dislike the Steelers even more.

Minnesota 31, Arizona 26: A game against the Cardinals is just what it takes to make Brad Johnson feel under 50 again. On the other side, Matt Leinart had thrown for over 400 yards, and yet in the 59th minute, all Arizona had on the board was two Neil Rackers field goals, a freak special teams TD and a freak defensive TD. The Cards are back, baby!

N.Y. Jets 26, Houston 11: I guess I can understand why Texas and cities in the AFC East got this stinker, but what did the Green Bay market do to deserve it?

San Diego 21, Oakland 14: I'm not saying the Raiders are better than teams think they are. I'm saying the Raiders aren't as bad as teams think they are. There's a difference, and it nearly bit the Chargers in the ass.

Indianapolis 45, Philadelphia 21: If Edgerrin James had a little Joseph Addai doll, he'd be sticking pins in it. And bet you didn't know the Eagles defense was riding on Donovan McNabb's knee, too, did you?

Seattle 34, Green Bay 24: Tell me again, what's the value of having Jerramy Stevens on your team? Look, no one expects tight ends to make circus catches or outrun corners in the open field. But they do expect that when a tight end gets open and his quarterback puts the ball right in his hands, he will catch it. Further, when he catches the ball, he will hold onto it when hit by a defender. This is, after all, tackle football. Yet Monday night, as always, Stevens dropped one perfect or near-perfect pass after another. On at least two occasions he caught the ball and tucked it away, only to drop it on contact. When he finally did hold onto a couple passes, first for a 2-point conversion and later for Seattle's clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter, he strutted and pounded his chest like the overvalued clown he was exposed as in the Super Bowl.

INCORRECT PICKS
Washington 20, Carolina 17: You know, even when the Redskins manage to claim a decent victory over a respectable (though directionless) team like the Panthers, all I can think of is how sad the situation is. Washington's defense played solidly, and Jason Campbell and Ladell Betts sort of looked like they knew what they were doing back there. Given a little time and a few tweaks, the Redskins could have the beginnings of something. But they won't get any time and there's no way they'll have only a few tweaks. That's because the Redskins are 4-7, which means they won't be going to the playoffs. Which means at the end of the regular season, this roster will be disassembled, again, and anyone who emerged this year as a solid role player with a promising future will be cut loose in favor of a free agent with more name than talent. Then again, the Skins did that last year, too, even though they made the playoffs. See? Sad.

St. Louis 20, San Francisco 17: If NFL games were 59 minutes long, I'd have gotten this one right. That's true often, it seems. We shouldn't get too excited about the 49ers just yet, but they're beating bad teams and playing mediocre ones close. That's the key to an 8-8 record. Considering the way San Francisco has played this century, this is good news.

Buffalo 27, Jacksonville 24: Does anyone care about the Jaguars anymore? One week after dominating the Giants, they roll over for the sorry Bills.

Tennessee 24, N.Y. Giants 21: You can call this an upset if you like, but Tennessee is capable of beating any team in the league -- or losing to any team by three touchdowns. Just like the Giants are capable of losing to any team in the league -- or beating any team by three touchdowns. (On Sunday, the Giants managed to do both.) I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who realizes that Mathias Kiwanuka let Vince Young escape what would have been the game-clinching sack because he was afraid the referee would flag him for roughing the passer. That makes at least two games this year (Bucs-Bengals being the other) in which the outcome hinged on the officials' increasingly insane interpretation of rules intended to protect owners' investment in their quarterbacks. One of the dullest saws in pro football commentary is the complaint that "they coddle QBs so much they should just wear skirts out there," or somesuch. But this is just getting ridiculous. All that said, considering that the Giants went into the fourth quarter up 21-0, the game should never have come down to that fourth-down play. Question: Is there any quarterback who is unraveling even remotely as quickly as Eli Manning?

New England 17, Chicago 13:Answer: Yes, Rex Grossman!

THIS WEEK: 11-5
SEASON: 107-69
(60.8%)
(2005 through Week 10: 118-58)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 12
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W12 = This week's ranking. W11 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
W12W11TEAMPOWW12W11TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001718Vikings 39.47
22 Patriots 85.861814Steelers 38.57
35 Ravens 83.231923Jets 34.30
43 Chargers 80.622020Rams 33.17
56 Cowboys 77.242117Falcons 31.63
64 Jaguars 70.882222Bills 30.62
79 Colts 65.442325Redskins 25.68
813Bengals 56.672424Lions 19.41
98 Broncos 56.212526Packers 19.17
1012Saints 53.792628Titans 18.64
117 Eagles 51.872721Browns 17.45
12T10Chiefs 51.862829Cardinals16.82
13T10Giants 47.52293049ers 15.74
1419Dolphins42.903027Texans 14.58
1515Panthers42.883132Raiders 4.86
1616Seahawks41.353231Bucs 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Jaguars, Giants, Panthers. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Week 11? These go to 11

Still waiting for our little one. Four days overdue now. He's gonna have some explaining to do.

CORRECT PICKS
New England 35, Green Bay 0: Another man's pain isn't really funny, but the circumstances can be. Filling in for dented iron man Brett Favre, who has started 251 straight games, Aaron Rodgers broke his foot after 32 whole minutes and is out for the season. Hey, that indignity is considerably more amusing than the one visited on the Packer defense.

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20: Ben Roethlisberger discovers that when you lead your team to a stirring comeback victory over a (vastly inferior) historic division rival, people will let slide the fact that you were the one responsible for digging the hole so deep in the first place. Who said he didn't have anything to learn from Eli Manning?

Tampa Bay 20, Washington 17: The worst possible thing that could have happened to the Redskins on Sunday would have been for them to win the first game of the Jason Campbell era. Instead, the loss to the walking-dead Buccaneers might -- I emphasize might -- signal to the front office that while quarterback play has been a problem this season, it hasn't been the problem. What's been the problem this season? The front office! Just like every season.

Carolina 15, St. Louis 0: The Panthers outgained the hapless Rams 411 yards to 111 and controlled the ball nearly twice as long, yet still won by only 15-0. This is why no one fears a kitty-cat with teal fur.

Kansas City 17, Oakland 13: I know it was just Trent Green's first game back, and the Chiefs wanted to ease him back into things, but you can't expect to make the playoffs out of the stacked AFC West if, when facing the Raiders at home, you play the duckie for all but the last couple minutes.

Miami 24, Minnesota 20: The Joey Harrington-led Dolphins have "won" three consecutive games. The only way that could be more amazing is if Harington had played much of a role in winning them. But as Kyle Orton can tell you, this sure beats working.

Chicago 10, N.Y. Jets 0: Bad Rex. Good win!

Baltimore 24, Atlanta 10: Good Vick. Bad loss!

Arizona 17, Detroit 10: I can understand why the network had to serve Arizona and Michigan this shitburger, but what did Toledo, Ohio, ever do to Fox?

Dallas 21, Indianapolis 14: It's the matchups, people. Were I a Colts fan -- and every night I thank the big commissioner in the sky that I am not -- I'd be less concerned about a 7-point loss to Dallas on the road than I would about 1-point victories over Tennessee and Buffalo at home. The consensus appears to be that the Colts needed this loss as much as the Cowboys needed this win. Like it'll matter.

INCORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati 31, New Orleans 16: It's never a good sign when a quarterback throws for 510 yards, especially when 145 of them come on drives that end in interceptions: two in the end zone, and one brought back for a touchdown.

Tennessee 31, Philadelphia 13: All the attention paid to the sad injury to Donovan McNabb obscures the sad reality that the Eagles were well on their way to losing this game before No. 5's knee went pop. The Dolphins, Colts, Redskins and Ravens have already learned this year that you look past the Titans at your own peril. Combine the Eagles' similar lack of focus with their now-standard operating procedure of spotting an inferior opponent the lead, and it'll be another cold, idle January at the Linc. It seems the window of opportunity has finally slammed shut on the Eagles' blunt (5 fumbles) fingers.

Buffalo 24, Houston 21: What does J.P. Losman have in common with Michael Vick? Both were first-round picks. Both spend significant chunks of the season bobbing around in the toilet, then surface from time to time with a solid game. That's about it, really. Sunday was Losman's turn to play reasonably well. He threw three touchdowns, four if you count the interception brought back for what was nearly the TD that cost the Bills the game.

San Francisco 20, Seattle 14: Though Shaun Alexander is back, the Seahawks still--OH MY GOD. The 49ers have won three straight and are now one game behind Seattle in the NFC West.

San Diego 35, Denver 27: If the Chargers can beat the Broncos in Denver, with their two steroidal freaks sitting out, then the AFC West is San Diego's to lose. Speaking of losing games or starting jobs ... I know I can't put all the blame for the Broncos' choke act on Jake Plummer's slumped shoulders, but the guy is a total wreck back there.

Jacksonville 26, N.Y. Giants 10: It was clear going in that the holey Giants defense was going to have some problems with the Jaguars offense. And sure enough, David Garrard on Monday night moved Byron Leftwich a bit closer to the starting job in Minnesota for the 2007 season (mark my words). What I foolishly assumed, however, was that New York's mostly healthy offense, with all its high-performance parts, would keep this game close enough to pull out in the end. The most dangerous part of any vehicle, of course, is the nut behind the wheel, and Eli Manning was by turns too tight, too loose and just not there at all. Your typical analyst watches a performance like Manning's against Jacksonville and declares that Eli looked as if he didn't care that he was killing his team. I can't read minds. All I'll say is that it looked as if Eli didn't notice that he was killing his team, at least until it was too late. And that may be the essential difference between the Manning boys: Peyton can throw three touchdown passes and still won't appear particularly happy. Eli can throw three interceptions brought back for touchdowns and still won't appear particularly upset.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 96-64
(60.0%)
(2005 through Week 10: 105-55)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 11
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W11 = This week's ranking. W10 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
W11W10TEAMPOWW11W10TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001715Falcons32.80
23 Patriots 82.191818Vikings 32.03
32 Chargers 75.691920Dolphins30.92
44 Jaguars 70.992019Rams 26.75
55 Ravens 69.562123Browns 23.26
66 Cowboys 66.142225Bills 23.13
77 Eagles 56.592321Jets 23.11
88 Broncos 56.542424Lions 19.17
99 Colts 55.662526Redskins18.58
T1012Chiefs 44.232622Packers 15.22
T1010Giants 44.232727Texans 13.50
1211Saints 44.062830Titans 10.78
1314Bengals 43.032928Cardinals10.73
1413Steelers42.51302949ers 10.28
1517Panthers39.893132Bucs 2.46
1616Seahawks32.813231Raiders 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Jets, Eagles, Falcons. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Week 10: Everyone's a loser

Well, now this is strange. In your typical week this season, I manage to predict all the gimme games correctly and whiff on the difficult matchups. In Week 10, however, I got most of the gimme games wrong -- as did nearly everyone else -- but was perfect on the tough matchups. I have no idea what I'm doing anymore. Wait, yes I do: At one point I had lost or was behind in nine of the 10 early games, and I actually started rooting for my picks to lose. From that point on, I was unbeatable. Next week I start charging $100 to root against your favorite team.

We're still waiting for our baby boy to show up, so let's make this quick.

CORRECT PICKS
San Diego 49, Cincinnati 41: First thirty minutes: Bengals 28, Chargers 7. Final thirty minutes: Chargers 42, Bengals 13. Can't anybody finish?

Baltimore 27, Tennessee 26: First twenty minutes: Titans 26, Ravens 7. Final forty minutes: Ravens 20, Titans 0. Can't anybody finish?

Philadelphia 27, Washington 3: Hey, someone finished! The Redskins learned the hard way, yet again, that when you "find a way to win" that doesn't involve outplaying the other team -- as they did last week against the Cowboys -- it's indicative of exactly nothing. The locals have been howling for the Jason Campbell era to begin but, really, would it make any sort of difference? Probably not. Hey, Campbell's starting next week!

Indianapolis 17, Buffalo 16: The Colts are going to need shovels if they continue playing down to the level of some of these opponents, but "it is what it is." For the second straight year, Indy is 9-0. But while in 2005 they won those games by an average of 14 points, this year they're winning by an average of 7 (take out the Texans game, and it's down to 5). Hell, even the stiffs on the '72 Dolphins won by 15 a game.

Denver 17, Oakland 13: I've never seen a good game that ended 17-13 or 27-10. This was no exception. Denver was supposed to win, but God, not like this.

Dallas 27, Arizona 10: This week's least surprising result.

Seattle 24, St. Louis 22: Hoo-boy. Four straight losses for the Rams. That'll learn me to say that St. Louis could take back the division.

Pittsburgh 38, New Orleans 31: The Saints are definitely for real, and they'll be playing in January as a result. The Steelers are definitely sloppy and unfocused, and they'll be home in January as a result. But in this game, a close match that went back and forth all afternoon, the difference was the Saints making the kinds of mistakes (hold onto the ball!) that have killed the Steelers all year. I picked the Steelers to win, but not like that.

Chicago 38, N.Y. Giants 20: Forget the 108-yard missed-FG return by the Bears' Devin Hester. This game was already over by then. In ended late in the first half, in Chicago territory. The Giants had the Bears backed up, 3rd-and-22 from their own 28. New York was this close to staking its claim as the team to beat in the NFC. Then Thomas Jones, just trying to gain a little more room for a punt, gains 26 yards. Big Blue goes Big Brown all down its leg, and the momentum moves to Chicago.

Carolina 24, Tampa Bay 10: Well, I should think so.

INCORRECT PICKS
Houston 13, Jacksonville 10: David Garrard: All he does is win! As much as the Texans are capable of owning anyone, they own the Jaguars. In five years in the league, Houston has swept a season series three times; twice, it was against the Jaguars. They've shut out an opponent just once: the Jaguars. They've won a game by 20 points just twice: both times, against the Jaguars. They're 6-4 against Jacksonville, 15-48 against the rest of the league. The Texans stink, and the Jaguars are their leedle beaches.

San Francisco 19, Detroit 13: Taking nothing away from the 49ers, who are clearly improving -- after all, in the past couple years, they couldn't even be counted on to beat bad teams -- but who in Detroit thought that Jon Kitna was going to be the answer? What was the question? Forget I asked.

N.Y. Jets 17, New England 14
Miami 13, Kansas City 10
So which is more surprising: the Dolphins' two-game winning streak, considering their level of play in the first half of the season, or the Patriots' two-game losing streak, considering they hadn't dropped consecutive games since 2002? Well, the Pats' losses were to rivals, both recent (Colts) and traditional (Jets), and you just never know what's gonna happen in rivalry games. The Dolphins, meanwhile, beat the Bears and the Chiefs. Despite what happened in 1985, before any of us were even born, there is no Dolphins-Bears rivalry. Sorry. Maybe Miami caught Chicago sleeping. It happens. But you'd think that the Dolphins' surprising win would have given the Chiefs a heads-up, but with a Herm Edwards-coached team, you never know what you're going to get. Moving on, the idea of Joey Harrington winning two straight is at least as surprising as Tom Brady losing two straight. So in the final analysis, I guess I'll go with the Dolphins' streak as the more surprising.

Cleveland 17, Atlanta 13: Here's a two-game streak that isn't terribly surprising: consecutive putrid performances from Michael Vick. On Sunday, he was 16-of-40 for 197 yards, 1 TD and two interceptions. Plus, he fumbled the ball away with the game on the line without even being touched. Vick had two good games in a row before tanking vs. Detroit and Cleveland, so maybe that's it for the year.

Green Bay 23, Minnesota 17: I think this is three straight Vikings-Packers games that I've blown.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 86-58
(59.7%)
(2005 through Week 10: 94-50)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 10
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W10 = This week's ranking. WK9 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
W10WK9TEAMPOWW10WK9TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001721Panthers 36.08
22 Chargers 80.501816Vikings 36.06
33 Patriots 73.311918Rams 34.72
45 Jaguars 69.552020Dolphins 30.93
54 Ravens 68.972122Jets 29.71
67 Cowboys 68.542223Packers 29.49
710Eagles 68.172325Browns 26.14
86 Broncos 67.862424Lions 23.64
99 Colts 62.172526Bills 22.64
108Giants 53.692619Redskins 20.96
1111Saints 52.832732Texans 14.78
1212Chiefs 45.932827Cardinals9.03
1315Steelers44.36292949ers 8.99
1413Bengals 41.153028Titans 3.88
1514Falcons 41.083131Raiders 1.41
1617Seahawks37.613230Bucs 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Bengals, Vikings, Rams. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Week 9, PDQ

Another week, another detestable 6-8 record. You know, just once it'd be nice for NFC teams to aspire to something besides an 8-8 record. My son is due any day now, so we'll keep this short.

CORRECT PICKS
Baltimore 26, Cincinnati 20: The CBS microphones caught one of the head coaches in a profanity-laced tirade (1 "god-damned," 1 "fucking"). The crazy thing is, it wasn't even Marvin Lewis.

Jacksonville 37, Tennessee 7: After the Jaguars beat Houston next week, it's going to be next to impossible for Jack Del Rio to put Byron Leftwich back in. I'm not saying he shouldn't.

New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 14: Every week I'm going to remind Jimmy Johnson that after seeing Bruce Gradkowski play all of one half, against the Saints in Week 4, he said Gradkowski may have taken Chris Simms' starting job for good.

N.Y. Giants 14, Houston 10: I can't decide which I liked better: Total ass Jeremy Shockey having his head all but caved in at the goal line, or total ass Jeremy Shockey dropping yet another sure TD catch as a result.

San Diego 32, Cleveland 25: It shouldn't be so damned hard for as good a team as the Chargers to put away as sorry a team as the Browns. Unless the Chargers aren't so good or the Browns aren't so sorry, or a sliding scale of the two.

Seattle 16, Oakland 0: Oakland gives up nine sacks, Randy Moss drops everything thrown his way, the Raiders' only noteworthy play was a knee to the balls, and the Seahawks only win 16-0? I've just got a bad feeling about this.

CORRECT PICKS
Miami 31, Chicago 13: The come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals proves that even when they don't play their best, even when they turn the ball over six times, the Bears still find a way to win. They're gonna go undefeated!

Kansas City 31, St. Louis 17: The Chiefs are always tough to beat in Missouri.

Detroit 30, Atlanta 14: Remember, we were all supposed to think Michael Vick had turned the corner based on his performance against Pittsburgh (now 2-6) and Cincinnati (4-4).

Buffalo 24, Green Bay 10: Remember, we were all supposed to thing the Packers had turned the corner based on their performance against Miami (now 2-6) and Arizona (1-7).

Washington 22, Dallas 19: Bill Parcells gave his whole team mono.

Denver 31, Pittsburgh 20: Ben Roethlisberger keeps throwing those passes up there as if the laws of physics apply differently when you're the defending champion.

San Francisco 9, Minnesota 3: There's disappointment, but not really shame, in getting shut down by the New England defense on a Monday night. There's really nothing but shame in getting shut down by the San Francisco defense on a Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis 27, New England 20: I turned on the radio today only long enough to hear Colin Cowherd, the most superfluous blowhard in all of sports talk, argue that until Peyton Manning wins the Super Bowl, he's always going to say Tom Brady is the better quarterback. What a startlingly original line of thinking. What a cutting-edge argument. What a controversial stance.

THIS WEEK: 6-8
SEASON: 76-52
(59.4%)
(2005 through Week 9: 86-44)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 9
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK9 = This week's ranking. WK8 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
WK9WK8TEAMPOWWK9WK8TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001719Seahawks 36.49
22 Chargers 85.041817Rams 35.03
33 Patriots 76.901922Redskins 30.01
44 Ravens 72.572024Dolphins 29.09
59 Jaguars 72.322120Panthers 28.98
66 Broncos 67.792221Jets 27.98
75 Cowboys 63.792318Packers 26.31
87 Giants 63.132425Lions 25.24
98 Colts 62.802523Browns 23.40
1010Eagles 59.892628Bills 21.81
1111Saints 57.502726Cardinals14.24
1216Chiefs 47.382829Titans 12.66
1313Bengals 44.57293249ers 5.29
1412Falcons 42.913031Bucs 4.01
1514Steelers38.853130Raiders 0.65
1615Vikings 36.493227Texans 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Steelers, Packers. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers.

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Week 8 in the former East Germany

Remember last week's dismal 6-7 record? No way we can sink lower than that! This week: 6-8. Heh. We'll get into the particulars in a second, but first let's note the most remarkable thing about this weekend's games. At one point Sunday, there were two Iowa State alumni on the field playing quarterback: Sage Rosenfels of the Texans and Seneca Wallace of the Seahawks. The only other schools with two QBs getting real* playing time this weekend: Arizona State, with Jake Plummer (Broncos) and Andrew Walter (Raiders); and Southern California, with Carson Palmer (Bengals) and Matt Leinart (Cardinals). Yes, USC, which has produced three Heisman Trophy winners and two national championships since 2002, had as many QBs on the field as Iowa State, which last year lost the game formerly known as the Galleryfurniture.com Bowl. (*"Real" means Brian Griese's garbage time with the Bears doesnt count.)

Let's do it.

CORRECT PICKS
Green Bay 31, Arizona 14: The Packers are going nowhere in a great green hurry, but at least they're having a little fun humiliating the downtrodden on the way there. Like Romeo Crennel in Cleveland and Brian Billick in Baltimore, Cardinals coach Denny Green scapegoated his offensive coordinator after a recent embarrassing loss. Unlike Crennel and Billick, however, all Green got was this lousy sweat-stained T-shirt and another embarrassing loss. The Cardinals' total collapse against the Bears a couple weeks back is getting more watershed-y all the time.

Chicago 41, San Francisco 10: There's no better cure for the nearly-got-our-asses-kicked-by-Arizona blues than to haul the 49ers into the boys' room and stick their heads in the toilet. And you can always count on the Niners to ratchet up the pathos even further. Last year against the Eagles, the 49ers were down by four touchdowns in the third quarter -- and kicked a field goal. Sunday against the Bears, the 49ers were down by six touchdowns in the fourth quarter -- and kicked a field goal. The only unanswered question is whether 49ers.com will try to slip in a reference to "outscoring opponents in the second half" when it puts together the season recap. I'll be watching.

N.Y. Giants 17, Tampa Bay 3: Every time Jermey Shockey drops a pass, an angel gets his wings.

Kansas City 35, Seattle 28: We're halfway through the season, so it's as good a time as any to quote myself and a bunch of other blogtards: "The Super Bowl losers' curse ends with this year's Seahawks." I'm paraphrasing there, but that's the gist of it. Yeah, Hasselbeck and Alexander are hurt. So what? It's always something with these ... defending conference champions. But forget Seattle. The Kansas City Chiefs -- starring Damon Huard in the role everybody else made famous -- are 4-3 and in as good a position as anyone to claim that sixth playoff spot that know-nothings like me were so willing to award the Jets. No one builds a winner and then destroys it quite like Herm Edwards.

San Diego 38, St. Louis 24: San Diego just keeps improving. So does St. Louis.

New England 31, Minnesota 7:Fifteen rushes, forty-three passes. What is this, the Indianapolis Colts? It took a few weeks for Tom Brady and his receivers to find a rhythm, but now they have one, and it appears to be a bossa nova. The newspapers in the Twin Cities must have been full of stories about the Vikings' new tougher-than-leather defense, because that defense went into the Metrodome on Monday night and topped off their underpants on national TV. (I absolutely love defecating-in-the-pants references! At least one a week!) I've said it many times before: No one reads their own press clippings like the Minnesota Vikings. Trust Bill Belichick to not just identify an opponent's weakness, but identify a weakness that can't be corrected during the game. Who knew the Vikings were helpless against the underneath passing game? Besides him, I mean.

INCORRECT PICKS
Jacksonville 13, Philadephia 6: You don't have to live under a tarp at Alltel Stadium to know what's coming. I call quarterback controversy! With Byron Leftwich under center, the Jaguars have lost to the no-account Redskins and the account-in-default Texans. With David Garrard subbing for an injured Leftwich on Sunday, the Jaguars "dominated" the Eagles, in Philadelphia. Thus Garrard -- say it with me -- "just knows how to win." Hmm. Here's Garrard's line Sunday: 10-of-17 for 87 yards, no TDs, no INTs; 8 rushes for 36 yards. By comparison, here's inveterate loser Donovan McNabb's line from the same game: 18-of-34 for 161 yards, no TDs, no INTs; 5 rushes for 37 yards. If McNabb's receivers had simply done a better jobs of catching the passes he put on their palms, it would be McNabb who just knows how to win. But they dropped those passes, so McNabb doesn't just know how to win. Who does just know how to win? I guess Fred Taylor and, to a lesser extent, Maurice Jones-Drew. I put the word dominate in quotes above because I heard the word used at least a dozen times in relation to Jacksonville's performance against the Eagles. But how dominant can a team be putting up just 13 points? And the Eagles played the Jaguars to a draw for the final 51 minutes of the game. That's dominance? This is not to say Jacksonville didn't deserve to win. For the third game in a row, the Eagles left their very pretty skirts on until the middle of the fourth quarter. That's no way to go through a season.

Tennessee 28, Houston 22: I'm losing the will to live. No, wait, I'm losing the will to care. That's right. Sorry.

Atlanta 29, Cincinnati 27: I'm going to have to apologize to Michael Vick and his fans at some point. Let's see ... The Falcons play the Lions next week and the Browns after that. You can't exactly praise a guy for carving up those turkeys. Ooh, here we go: Nov. 19 against Baltimore. If Vick chews up the Ravens the way he chewed up the Steelers and Bengals, I'll have my fat ass on the bandwagon right next to the driver. Except my son is supposed to be born on or around the 17th, so I might not be able to watch. Sorry, Mike! As for the Bengals? Eh. The aroma of 8-8 is starting to get mighty pungent. That must be what a fluke smells like when you leave it out too long.

Baltimore 35, New Orleans 22: Oh crap. Up to Sunday, Ravens coach Brian Billick had spent eight years pissing away the "offensive genius" reputation he built on the backs of other people. Just when it seemed he had peed himself into a corner with another anemic offense in Baltimore, he cut Jim Fassel's throat and assumed play-calling duty himself. And the Ravens promptly went out and had their highest-scoring game of the year. Does it matter that 14 of the 35 points came from the defense? Does it matter that the Saints' offense outscored the Ravens' offense? Does it matter that the Ravens benefited greatly from Reggie Bush entering the declining phase of his career? (He does everything fast!) No. All that matters is that Billick looks right this week, and if there's one thing that Billick and his smug little smile and his round little sunglasses and his receding little hairline can tell you, it's better to look right than to be right. Right?

Cleveland 20, N.Y. Jets 13: Did Jets tight end Chris Baker catch the tying touchdown on fourth down with a minute left, as Jets fans assert? Was he pushed out of bounds? Did the Jets get screwed by replay rules that say force-outs are judgment calls that can't be reviewed. Oh God, could I care any less? We said last week (in not so many words) that the Jets' path to the playoffs was clearly laid out before them, freshly paved with shit the color of the Cleveland Browns. If you're not man enough to win a gimme against the Browns, you can't be helped.

Oakland 20, Pittsburgh 13: There is nothing -- nothing -- I can say that hasn't already been said about this game. (Which, funny enough, was exactly the same thing we said about Tampa's win over Philadelphia last week and Chicago's over Arizona the week before.) Having demonstrated that they can win the Super Bowl from the sixth seed, the Steelers are now out to prove that they can do it without even making the playoffs.

Indianapolis 34, Denver 31: Whoa, whoa, whoa. Peyton Manning is suddenly clutch? I've got all sorts of papers and media guides and scouting magazines printed on low-grade stock here, and none of it says anything about clutch. The comeback, or whatever it was, was a real ring-a-ding-ding, but I'm less focused on the 34 points the Colts scored against their perennial donkey boys than on the 31 the Broncos were able to hang on their supposed betters. If they'd have just taken the ball out of Jake Plummer's hands completely and just run straight at the Colts, they'd have likely won. Because Indianapolis couldn't stop the run with an electrified fence. Whichever way it sorts itself out, it's starting to look like these boys could meet -- oh God, not again -- in the playoffs. A win's a win, and the Colts will take it, but I do have to wonder about the celestial wisdom of it all. Last year Indy started out 13-0, and as much as they deny it, the fact of their losslessness got inside their collective head and rotted it from the inside out. Maybe it would've been better to lose this one? You know: Get all of Denver puffed up about how "This Is The Year The Broncos Finally Beat The Colts." Then playoff time comes around, and the Broncos are so giddy for another crack at the Colts that they eat their own gun against some other team. The Ravens or someone. Hey, it happened to the Colts last year. It still could happen to the Colts this year. They do play the Patriots, in Foxboro, this weekend.

Dallas 35, Carolina 14: (Remember, Tom Brady didn't win the game in which he replaced Drew Bledsoe, either.) Something funny happened on the way to the Cowboys' implosion. Bill Parcells finally got the cap off the Sambuca and started kissing his charges up one sideline and down the other. This game was sphincter-tight until Carolina achieved the perfect balance of recklessness (long passes thrown by Jake Delhomme) and fecklessness (long passes dropped by Keyshawn Johnson) and churned it into 25 rich, buttery fourth-quarter points for Dallas. I hadn't seen a game turn into a blowout so suddenly since ... well, since the first quarter of the Bears-Niners game.

THIS WEEK: 6-8
SEASON: 70-44
(61.4%)
(2005 through Week 7: 74-42)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 8
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK8 = This week's ranking. WK7 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
WK8WK7TEAMPOWWK8WK7TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001716Rams 33.61
22 Chargers 75.571822Packers 25.14
34 Patriots 73.781919Seahawks 23.54
45 Ravens 62.992017Panthers 23.44
58 Cowboys 56.772120Jets 22.59
63 Broncos 55.642221Redskins 21.81
711Giants 52.6723T25Browns 18.58
86 Colts 52.512424Dolphins 12.49
912Jaguars 50.1725T25Lions 12.05
107 Eagles 50.062623Cardinals10.76
119 Saints 43.142729Texans 9.07
1213Falcons 42.602828Bills 8.05
1315Bengals 39.792931Titans 5.98
1414Steelers39.293032Raiders 5.06
1510Vikings 34.803127Bucs 4.88
1618Chiefs 34.31323049ers 0.00
Teams eliminated this week* from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills.
*Though the Steelers have posted five losses, they've proved they can win the Super Bowl with an 11-5 record. So they get a pass for now.