Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Week 16 with excuses galore

It should be quite clear by now that Down and Distance is not going to finish the 2006 NFL regular season having correctly picked two-thirds of the winners, as was the case last year. This week I went 8-8 in the picks, and with one week left to go in the season, my record stands at 144-96. Last year, by contrast, I was 164-76 at this point. That was 20 games better than I'm faring this year. And it was a better-than-Vegas success rate of 68.3%, compared with a flat 60% this year. Even if I ran the table next week, the best I could do for '06 would be a paltry 62.5%.

But it's not just me, thankfully. Oriole Magic, the front-runner in our picks league for 2006, is, by my reckoning, just 153-87 going into the final week. Last year's leader after 16 weeks, Monsters of the Midway, was 170-70, or 17 games better.

So what's going on? Have we all gotten a lot less prescient, very suddenly? No, the NFL has just gotten a lot less polarized, very suddenly.

"Parity" is a word you hear a lot, one that people use to describe whatever they happen to think is wrong about the NFL. It's commonly used incorrectly to describe the phenomenon of sudden ascendance: for example, the Rams going from 4-12 in 1998 to 13-3 in 1999, or the 2004 Steelers jumping from 6-10 to 15-1, or this year's Saints, who've gone from 3-13 to 10-5. (There's also sudden collapse: The 2002 Super Bowl teams going from 23-9 to 11-21.) That's not parity, however; that's volatility. Parity simply means equality. Under a true parity system, there are no "good teams" and no "bad teams," no haves and have-nots. Everyone is just average.

A generally accepted definition of an "average" team in the NFL is one that finishes a season with 7 to 9 wins. There isn't much difference between a 7-9 record, an 8-8 record and a 9-7 record, except for a few random bounces of the ball. Under that definition, last season produced the fewest "average" teams of any year in the salary cap era, which began in 1994. Here are the number of 7- to 9-win teams in each of the past 15 years:


YEAR
7- to 9-
WIN TEAMS
20055
200411
20036
200215
200110
20009
199913
19989
199710
199613
199515
199413
199312
19926
19917
19907

With only five "average" teams last year (Atlanta at 8-8 and Dallas, Miami, Minnesota and San Diego all at 9-7), the league saw its greatest polarization in recent memory. Most of the franchises were definably "good" or definably "bad," and most matchups had a clear favorite. The pickin' was easy!

This year is totally different It's like the mid-'90s all over again. As of now, there are 12 teams at 8-7 or 7-8 and are thus guaranteed to finish with 7 to 9 wins. (They're evenly divided between the AFC and NFC, by the way) Seven other teams are either 6-9 or 9-6 and could climb into (or fall back into) the "average" pack. When 19 teams out of 32 are decidedly average, picking winners consistently becomes a nightmare. That's why my record -- and everyone's record -- has been so dismal in 2006.

Just for grins, here's my week-by-week record in 2005, and this year:

WK'05'06CHANGE
111-59-7-2
27-912-4+5
39-58-6-1
411-38-6-3
58-612-2+4
610-49-4-1
78-66-7-2
810-46-8-4
912-26-8-6
108-610-6+2
1111-510-6-1
1213-311-5-2
1314-28-8-6
1413-310-6-3
1510-611-5+1
169-78-8-1
178-8???

OK, now that I've used science to prove beyond a doubt that the problem is the National Football League rather than me, let's get to the recaps:

CORRECT PICKS
Green Bay 9, Minnesota 7: I can't imagine this dreadful Thursday night display is going to convince anyone that they just have to have the NFL Network. America loves field goals, even when they're no good!

Kansas City 20, Oakland 9: And for those asking whether the NFL Network could have lined up a game any more desultory than Thursday's Vikings-Packers showdown, the answer is yes: Saturday's Chiefs-Raiders hoedown. The Oakland defense is more or less stout, but the Oakland offense is capable of nothing -- literally, nothing -- so your typical Oakland game involves the Raiders' opponent "jumping out" to a 7-3 or 10-6 lead and then just running out the clock. For like 45 minutes. If there's anyone to feel sorry for in Oakland, I'd pick quarterback Andrew Walter. You can see it all over the poor guy's face: He knows that this is not only the last year he'll start in the NFL, it's probably also the last year he'll even make a roster. Walter rewrote the Pac-10 record book while at Arizona State, but now his football career -- the NFL dreams he's harbored since boyhood -- have dissipated into the chilly night. If I'm Brady Quinn, looking at the possibility of going to the Raiders with the first pick in the draft, my pretty white teeth are chattering uncontrollably.

Chicago 26, Detroit 21: Here are some receivers who didn't drop the winning touchdown pass for Detroit as time ran out Sunday: Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Roddy White, Reggie Brown, Vincent Jackson, Chris Henry. They didn't drop the winning touchdown pass for the Lions on Sunday because way back in 2005, the Lions drafted Mike Williams instead of any of them. To be fair, Roddy White and Chris Henry probably would have dropped the pass, too. If I'm Brady Quinn, looking at the possibility of going to the Lions with the first pick in the draft, my pretty white underpants just turned dazzling yellow. I've chosen to focus on the Lions here because there's nothing left worth saying about the Bears.

New Orleans 30, N.Y. Giants 7: There are two definitions of "discipline." One is "punishment," the other is "self-control." The first kind of disciplinarian, then, is someone who subjects his charges to all sorts of ridiculous rules and shitty grudges and punishes them publicly when they don't comply. That's Tom Coughlin. The second kind is someone who lays out specifically how he expects his charges to produce, then holds them accountable for meeting those expectations. That's Sean Payton. Is it any wonder then, that after both teams had a rough first half, the Saints responded with 24 unanswered points, while the Giants simply quit?

New England 24, Jacksonville 21: Look, I've finally become a Patriots fan, and I'm glad to see they're winning, but I don't know. They just look ... unconvincing. I know they can beat anybody, but will they?

San Diego 20, Seattle 17: Seattle can take satisfaction in being the first Super Bowl runner-up in five years to make the playoffs. Then again, if you need a loss by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16 to win the division, you're really only making the playoffs on a technicality. On the San Diego side, Philip Rivers needs to get his shit together pronto. The past couple of weeks, he's played like one of those Garrardesque quarterbacks who "just win games." And you know what happens to them.

Denver 24, Cincinnati 23: We can talk about the botched snap on the extra point all we want. Carson Palmer would probably prefer we do, because something's wrong with his throwing motion. There's no way this game should have even been close. If Palmer had hit his open receivers, this would have been a romp for the Bengals. Well, if the receivers had also caught the balls and held onto them. Which is a big "if."

N.Y. Jets 13, Miami 10: ESPN kept showing us footage from the Second Miracle at the Meadowlands in a vain attempt to fool us into thinking we were eating something besides a rain-basted turd served in an empty stadium. All that stands between the Jets and the playoffs now is the 2-13 Raiders. But don't count on it.

INCORRECT PICKS
Baltimore 31, Pittsburgh 7: The Steelers had "climbed back into playoff contention" by stealing milk money from the Buccaneers, Browns and Panthers by a combined 84-13. So it was refreshing to see the Ravens come into Pittsburgh and, for the second time in five weeks, pull down the Steelers' pants in front of all the girls. And the Steelers weren't wearing any underwear!

St. Louis 37, Washington 31 (OT): Your 2006 Redskins: Beat the 2-1 Jaguars, lose to the 0-5 Titans. Beat the 4-3 Cowboys, lose to the 2-7 Bucs. Beat the 6-4 Panthers, lose to the 5-6 Falcons. Beat the 9-4 Saints, lose to the 6-8 Rams. Oh sure, talk about Marc Bulger if you must. Someone has to play for the NFC in the Pro Bowl.

Tennessee 30, Buffalo 29: You know, I hate it when coaches kick late field goals when they really need to be going for it on fourth down. In the final minute Sunday, however, the Bills needed a 45-yard field goal to win the game, but Dick Jauron instead elected to go for it on fourth down. To go for the touchdown on fourth down. When they were down by 1 point. When their kicker was 5-for-5. The X-factor in this game wasn't Vince Young. It was stupidity and cowardice. I guess that's an X-factor and a Y-factor, actually.

Tanpa Bay 22, Cleveland 7: Remember how Derek Anderson had made Charlie Frye expendable? Well, since this game pretty much locks up the No. 3 draft pick for the Browns, it looks like we'll get the chance to see whether hometown hero Troy Smith will make them both expendable.

Houston 27, Indianapolis 24: The Colts had six possessions and scored on four of them. Unfortunately, the Texans had seven possessions and scored on five of them. The Colts have always had the ability to score on two-thirds of their possessions; the difference this year is that even bottom-scrapers like the Texans, with washouts like Ron Dayne, can run the ball at will and outscore them. Who looks the worst after this game? Probably the Bengals.

Carolina 10, Atlanta 3: Last week Michael Vick threw four touchdown passes, but all anyone wanted to talk about was the fact that he took himself off the field with two minutes remaining and the game still somewhat within reach. The week Michael Vick became the first quarterback to amass 1,000 yards rushing in a season, but all anyone wants to talk about is the fact that the game was within reach all damn day and Atlanta's offensive juggernaut could put up just 3 measly points. A Falcons fan reading this might get disgusted and say, "Whatever Vick does, he gets criticized. Vick just can't win." I agree!

Arizona 26, San Francisco 20: After all the "Leinart + Edge = Super Bowl" excitement and all the "Arizona-is-turning-it-around" talk this year, the Cardinals this week improved to 5-10. After next week's presumptive loss at San Diego, they'll be 5-11. Last year, before they turned the whole franchise around, they were 5-11. The year before that? 6-10. That's the Way Of The Cardinals. If in the offseason they can sign the entire Indianapolis offensive line, the bulk of Chicago's special teams, and the entire Baltimore defense, they might well go winless in 2007.

Philadelphia 23, Dallas 7: Heh. Eagles fans think Jeff Garcia is the answer. That's like thinking Tony Romo is going to get you to the Super Bowl.

THIS WEEK: 8-8
SEASON: 144-96
(60.0%)
(2005 through Week 16: 164-76)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 16
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W16 = This week's ranking. W15 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
W16W15TEAMPOWW16W15TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001717Seahawks 45.10
24 Ravens 95.131818Dolphins 47.48
32 Chargers 91.481920Vikings 43.15
43 Patriots 89.982021Rams 42.51
55 Jaguars 80.202119Falcons 42.42
67 Saints 75.522223Panthers 36.41
76 Cowboys 70.482322Titans 35.87
811Eagles 66.172424Redskins 33.83
99 Colts 64.842525Cardinals33.46
1010Bengals 62.882626Packers 28.64
118 Steelers59.312727Lions 24.12
1212Broncos 55.742830Texans 21.61
1315Chiefs 53.96292949ers 21.20
T1416Jets 51.083028Browns 18.75
T1414Bills 51.083131Bucs 11.34
1613Giants 47.483232Raiders 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): None. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Saints.

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Week 15, when everyone gets blown out

Down and Distance went 11-5 in the picks this week. Not bad. Not terribly good, either. I don't know where I got Arizona over Denver, but I totally predicted that Vince Young would lead the Titans to victory over the Jaguars. He just wins!

CORRECT PICKS
Dallas 38, Atlanta 28: Many media historians say that TV network news came of age with the JFK assassination, and that cable news did so with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. From watching Saturday's post-game coverage, it appears that the NFL Network views Terrell Owens spitting on DeAngelo Hall as its equivalent of JFK and the Gulf War, plus Pearl Harbor, 9/11 and that girl who fell down the well in Texas.

N.Y. Jets 26, Minnesota 13: We'd all been expecting the Vikings to bench Brad Johnson, but we weren't expecting shitty defense to be the precipitating factor.

Buffalo 21, Miami 0: I've finally figured out where I've seen these Bills before: they're the Green Bay Packers of the early 1980s. Capable of beating anybody, capable of losing to anybody, capable of shutting out an opponent, capable of getting shut out. And never a real threat to make the playoffs. J.P. Losman is Lynn Dickey, Lee Evans is James Lofton, Mike Mularkey is Bart Starr, and Dick Jauron is Forest Gregg. Willis McGahee is both Gerry Ellis and Eddie Lee Ivery. I've seen these Dolphins, too: the Buffalo Bills of the late 1990s.

Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 17: Well, of course. As soon as the Jaguars franchise puts all its eggs in David Garrard's basket, Garrard goes and pees in it. With this game, Vince Young made a run at Garrard for the title of "quarterback most likely to get credit for victories that were achieved in spite of him, not because of him." Also known as the Kyle Orton Trophy.

Chicago 34, Tampa Bay 31 (OT): Devin Hester's fumble on a kick return let the Buccaneers back in the game, and yet you didn't see it anywhere in the highlights. Gee, wonder why. Speaking of media darlings, the Bears defense gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter. In their three previous games, the Bucs scored a total of 19.

Pittsburgh 37, Carolina 3: Turns out quitters really don't win. When you see how Chris Weinke and Brad Basanez have spun their wheels in the absence of Jake Delhomme, you have to ask again why Carolina was so quick to cut Stefan LeFors.

New England 40, Houston 7: Like just about everybody except Jacksonville, the Patriots take a welcome break from their struggles by kicking the shit out of the Houston Texans.

Green Bay 17, Detroit 9: It's just sad to see what's happened to this classic rivalry. It's become just a matchup of two also-rans, whereas not too long ago it was a twice-yearly clash of a perennial league powerhouse and ... well, and a perennial also-ran. It's sad if you're a Packer fan, I guess. If you're a Lions fan, it's just life as you know it.

Baltimore 27, Cleveland 17: Watching former Ravens starting QB Kyle Boller come into the game after Steve McNair's injury, I thought about the 2001 AFC Championship Game, when Drew Bledsoe, who had also lost his starting job, led the Patriots to victory while subbing for the injured Tom Brady. And I thought to myself, "This isn't like that at all."

St. Louis 20, Oakland 0: It's the third time this year the Raiders have been shut out. How bad is it in Oakland? Aaron Brooks is their best hope at quarterback.

San Diego 20, Kansas City 9: Even people who have LaDanian Tomlinson in their fantasy leagues are tired of hearing from guys who have LaDanian Tomlinson in their fantasy leagues.

INCORRECT PICKS
San Francisco 24, Seattle 14: Here's how the Seahawks finished in the first seven years of Mike Holmgren's tenure: 9-7, 6-10, 9-7, 7-9, 10-6, 9-7, 13-3. Hmm, which one is the fluke? Some may say that this game shows that the 49ers of old are making a comeback. Others (me) say that the Seahawks of old are merely reasserting themselves.

Washington 16, New Orleans 10: In the Washington victory, Ladell Betts once again demonstrated everything that's wrong with the Redskins. Wait: Betts ran for 119 yards and had another 43 yards receiving, so what's the problem? The problem is that when Clinton Portis went down with an injury in preseason, the Redskins panicked and traded two high draft choices for T.J. Duckett. The problem is that Duckett has barely seen the field because Betts has played so well. The problem is that the Redskins threw away draft picks because they had no clue about the talent level of the guy who has been on their roster for more than five years. Still, nice win, Skins!

Philadelphia 36, N.Y. Giants 22: Eagles fill-in QB Jeff Garcia has reportedly said he's playing for a starting position somewhere next year. He certainly played like a second-stringer in Detroit last year, and look where that got him. I'd say something about the game, which I watched from start to finish, but I just don't care.

Denver 37, Arizona 20: It was worth taking a shot on the Cardinals, regardless of the outcome. If I'm Matt Leinart, I'm standing on the sidelines thinking about all the national championships I won and all the starlets I sqwanked in college and wondering how the hell I wound up on Arizona's Souped-Up Scooter to Hell while Jay Cutler -- Vanderbilt alumnus Jay Cutler -- gets to sling it around in Denver.

Indianapolis 34, Cincinnati 16: Despite the 9-0 start, Indianapolis had been having trouble all year because opposing defenses were stacking their coverages to take away the deep passing game, forcing the Colts to rely on short throws and runs. That meant more plays per drive, which meant more opportunities for error, which contributed to the Colts losing three out of four games. Monday night, however, the Colts embraced the new reality and didn't even try throwing downfield. Think the Monday Night Football crew made the connection? Ha. Kornheiser was too busy telling us (over and over) that Colts, who have already clinched their division title, "needed this game more" than the Bengals, who are struggling to make the playoffs as a wild card. Also, Matthew McConaughey was in the booth, which gave everyone up there a chance to indulge their man-crushes.

THIS WEEK: 11-5
SEASON: 136-88
(60.7%)
(2005 through Week 14: 155-69)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 15
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W15 = This week's ranking. W14 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W15W14TEAMPOWW15W14TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001716Seahawks44.04
22 Chargers90.591814Dolphins43.93
35 Patriots90.141918Falcons 42.78
43 Ravens 88.122017Vikings 42.04
54 Jaguars 81.462122Rams 38.52
66 Cowboys 73.302224Titans 32.77
77 Saints 69.032321Panthers32.40
812Steelers64.782425Redskins32.21
99 Colts 64.742523Cardinals29.21
108 Bengals62.242628Packers 26.28
1110Eagles 60.972727Lions 22.22
1215Broncos54.162829Browns 20.49
1311Giants 51.83293049ers 19.48
1420Bills 49.803026Texans 16.97
1513Chiefs 49.173132Bucs 3.24
1619Jets 48.583231Raiders 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Saints. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Week 14: Two TDs down, one FG to go

A 10-6 record in the picks this week doesn't look too hot on its face, but it was better than most. Nearly everyone picked Indianapolis, New England, Seattle, San Francisco, Dallas and the Jets to win. But I'm surprised at how many also expected the Lions to beat the Vikings and Baltimore to lose in K.C.

CORRECT PICKS
Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 7: The Browns weren't going to win in any event, but had their receivers been able to hold onto the ball, they might have been able to last past the first quarter.

N.Y. Giants 27, Carolina 13: The Unfulfilled Expectations Bowl. I said before the season even started that the Panthers would regret cutting Stefan LeFors for Chris Weinke. And look what happened. Weinke's now 1-15 lifetime as a starter.

Philadelphia 21, Washington 19: On the "Blitz" segment of ESPN's SportsCenter, bald idjit Chris Berman said that when it comes to the Eagles' current QB, there's a simple truth: "Jeff Garcia wins." Except, of course, in Cleveland (3-7 as a starter) and Detroit (1-5). In this game the Redskins had 20 first downs to the Eagles' 14, outgained Philadelphia 415 yards to 263, and held the ball for 15 minutes longer. So why did they lose? Because they're the Redskins.

Tennessee 26, Houston 20: Vince Young's incredible game-winning scramble for a touchdown in overtime spared his coach, Jeff Fisher, from scrutiny for his weak-kneed game management at the end of regulation. On fourth-and-2 at midfield with the score tied and less than a minute on the clock, Fisher elected to punt and play for overtime. You've put your season on Young's shoulders, but you won't put the game in his hands? It's a good thing Tennessee won the coin toss in OT.

Cincinnati 27, Oakland 10: The Raiders intercepted Carson Palmer three times, which increased Palmer's INT total for the year nearly 40%. It was the first time Palmer had been picked thrice since 2004, when he was functionally a rookie. And yet you'll note that the Bengals still won by three scores. That's because giving the ball to the Oakland offense is like giving the Glengarry leads to Shelley Levene: "To give them to you is just throwing them away."

Minnesota 30, Detroit 20: Earlier this year the Lions gave up 201 yards and a touchdown pass to Brad Johnson's 38-year-old arm. There's no shame in that. Sunday, the Lions gave up a touchdown run to Johnson's 38-year-old legs. Shame? Someone ought to get publicly flogged for that. The guy's even older than me, and I'm ancient. He hadn't run for a TD in five years.

Baltimore 20, Kansas City 10: Kansas City fans will likely holler for the return of Damon Huard. It's easier than facing the truth.

Atlanta 17, Tampa Bay 6: If you can't win the game yourself, it helps to have a division opponent who'll just hand it to you.

San Diego 48, Denver 20: For one quarter (the third), Jay Cutler looked like John Elway, then he went back to looking like Jake Plummer. A young Jake Plummer.

Chicago 42, St. Louis 27: Who cares that Devin Hester returned two kickoffs for touchdowns, making the difference for the Bears amid another shaky performance by their defense? The important thing, according to the Monday Night Football crew, is that Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman didn't shoot any of his teammates in the face. All the Bears' problems are solved! Judging by the crowd shots and the noise in the Edward Jones Dome, the Bears continue to "travel well," as they say in college, but man, are their fans an ugly lot. If I saw one more waxy, red-faced fuck in a Brian Urlacher jersey dumping another 18-ounce beer over his triple chin, I was going to turn off the TV in disgust. But Joe Theismann ("Torry Holt can make those plays, and he does make those plays") chased me away just in time.

INCORRECT PICKS

Miami 21, New England 0
Jacksonville 44, Indianapolis 17
The Manning-Brady debate takes an interesting turn: They both suck! Which loss was the ugliest? Seeing as how the Dolphins have been giving the Patriots fits for years (remember?) and also how the Colts have been allowed to skate with a rep for always "finding a way to win" against the Jaguars, I'll go with Indy's embarrassing ass-kicking in Jacksonville. It was a total meltdown, and it was totally inevitable. Both these teams were thoroughly outcoached, but only one would say so publicly ... and it was Bill Belichick who did the admitting.

Green Bay 30, San Francisco 19: Man, this was like watching those great Packers-Niners duels of the mid-1990s, when they were slugging it out for NFC dominance. I mean, you had Brett Favre out there slinging it around. And you had ... Well, you had Brett Favre out the slinging it around. And they were playing at Candlestick. And it was Sunday. Hey, look: Balloons!

Buffalo 31, N.Y. Jets 13: The road to the playoffs was laid out in front of the Jets, and they immediately slipped on dog feces. And they did it at home. Against the Bills. Maybe the Jets got caught looking ahead, but to whom? The Vikings? The Raiders?

Arizona 27, Seattle 21: Heh.

New Orleans 42, Dallas 17: The Cowboys were the quasi-official team to beat in the NFC for exactly seven days. New Orleans wrested the front-runner's sash from Dallas with a convincing Sunday night victory, but the Saints wore it for just a day, before Chicago put away the hapless Rams and were declared cured by conventional wisdom.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 125-83
(60.1%)
(2005 through Week 14: 145-63)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 14
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W14 = This week's ranking. W13 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
W14W13TEAMPOWW14W13TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001719Vikings 44.82
24 Chargers 85.571820Falcons 44.26
33 Ravens 84.241914Jets 43.54
46 Jaguars 82.572021Bills 42.18
52 Patriots 79.012117Panthers 42.07
65 Cowboys 70.262222Rams 32.59
78 Saints 68.632323Cardinals32.18
89 Bengals 65.982426Titans 29.68
97 Colts 59.202524Redskins 29.66
1011Eagles 56.372627Texans 25.08
1113Giants 54.472728Lions 23.91
1215Steelers54.042829Packers 23.66
1312Chiefs 51.142925Browns 22.00
1418Dolphins49.96303049ers 15.88
1510Broncos 47.603131Raiders 7.30
1616Seahawks45.523232Bucs 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Cowboys, Seahawks. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos.

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Week 13 and no one's lucky

Ugh. 8-8 this week in the picks. I take solace in the fact that no one did better than 10-6. It's cold comfort, but hey, it's December.

CORRECT PICKS
New England 28, Detroit 21: "Frankly, the Lions deserved to beat the Patriots." I don't know that that sentence has been written before, at least not sarcastically. Arizona's win at St. Louis has cleared room in the league cellar, so now Detroit just has to get past Oakland for the right to draft Brady Quinn, who will then bear the blame for everything that's wrong with the Lions.

San Diego 24, Buffalo 21: Just because a team hails from a warm-weather city doesn't mean it's totally incapable of playing north of the equator after Oct. 1.

Chicago 23, Minnesota 21: Remember when the Bears beat the Cardinals, and everyone said it was a wake-up call for the team? How they couldn't keep counting on defense, special teams, and the other teams' errors to bail them out? How they just had to play better on offense? And yet they keep playing worse. Vital stats from Chicago's Week 6 victory at Arizona and Sunday's game vs. the Vikings:
METRICvs. ARZvs. MIN
Yards gained by Bears 168 107
Yards gained by opponent 286 348
Bears 1st downs 9 6
Opponent 1st downs 17 21
Points by Bears offense 3 7
Points by Bears defense/special teams 21 16
Rex Grossman passer rating 10.7 1.3
Win? Yes Yes
Score 24-23 23-21
All Kyle Orton does is win!

Atlanta 24, Washington 14: I had originally written "The Falcons may have saved their season," but in reality they did no such thing.

New Orleans 34, San Francisco 10: There's a guy in your office who picked Reggie Bush way too early in his fantasy draft and had started him every game, hoping each time that it would be the week Bush finally broke out. Then, this Sunday, he finally gave up and benched Bush in favor of, I don't know, Laurence Maroney. Then Bush went for four TDs. But I don't have to tell you any of this, because he won't shut up about it.

Pittsburgh 20, Tampa Bay 3: I thought it was a bit silly for Green Bay to go for the field goal while losing 31-0 in the third quarter. Then I saw Tampa Bay go for a field goal when down 20-0 on the final play of the game. Talk about ridiculous. I wrote last year that putting up only 3 points is even more pathetic than getting shut out, and I stand by it. I'm sure this game was nice and cathartic for Steeler fans, but from a distance, it was just sad. Both these teams were in the playoffs last year, and it's likely that both Fox and the flex-schedule people at NBC at one point saw this as a marquee matchup. Instead, it was just another late-season collision of two buses headed nowhere. Well, only one bus, when you think about it.

Jacksonville 24, Miami 10: Here's how to pick a Jaguars game: Select a number at random. If it's an odd number, multiply by 3; if even, by 2.5. Now double it. Subtract from it from the square of your original number. Now close your eyes and flip a coin.

Dallas 23, N.Y. Giants 20: Sunday's adequate performance aside, everyone in New York is screaming about Eli Manning, but what are the Giants going to do? Bench him? For whom? Elisabeth Hasselbeck's husband is in uniform mostly for self-esteem reasons, and Jared Lorenzen remains on the roster only as a cruel frat prank.

INCORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati 13, Baltimore 7: I heard more than once, "If this game had been played in Baltimore in January, the result would have been different. Yes, but it wasn't. And it wasn't. Me, I'm as guilty as everyone else.

Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 17: This would normally be the space in which the Titans are praised for again devising a game plan that matched their strengths to the Colts' weakness. But I can't get past the powder-blue pants.

Arizona 34, St. Louis 20: Those fantasy owners who took a chance on a certain Arizona Cardinals running back are looking pretty smart today. I mean, I wish I'd had the foresight to pick up Marcel Shipp.

Cleveland 31, Kansas City 28 (OT): Who is Derek Anderson? Suddenly the most popular guy in Cleveland. Just like Charlie Frye was for a few weeks before him, Trent Dilfer for a few weeks before him, Kelly Holcomb for a few weeks before him and Jeff Garcia for those bizarre six or seven weeks in 2003.

Houston 23, Oakland 14: If you can't beat the Texans and their putrid offense (minus-5 yards net passing) when you have an excellent defense and are playing at home, don't even bother coming out.

N.Y. Jets 38, Green Bay 10: CBS has to have a pretty weak slate of games to send its No. 1 announcing team to call the 7-4, probably-not-going-anywhere Jets against the 4-7, definitely-not-going-anywhere Packers. In picking Green Bay, I had this whole "feisty, upset minded Packers playing at home" thing spinning in my head. Then Jim Nantz reminded me that only one team has been shut out at home twice this year: the Packers. Thanks, dick.

Seattle 23, Denver 20: The Broncos put Jay Cutler in at quarterback because Jake Plummer kept fumbling snaps and exchanges and throwing costly interceptions.

Philadelphia 27, Carolina 24: Jeff Garcia was this close to being put out of our misery.

THIS WEEK: 8-8
SEASON: 115-77
(59.9%)
(2005 through Week 13: 132-60)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 13
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W13 = This week's ranking. W12 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
W13W12TEAMPOWW13W12TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001715Panthers44.50
22 Patriots 85.101814Dolphins 40.63
33 Ravens 80.681917Vikings 39.08
44 Chargers 80.262021Falcons 38.63
55 Cowboys 77.142122Bills 33.80
66 Jaguars 75.482220Rams 33.08
77 Colts 65.262328Cardinals27.10
810Saints 61.752423Redskins 27.02
98 Bengals 60.122527Browns 24.92
109 Broncos 56.002626Titans 24.54
1111Eagles 54.292730Texans 23.08
1212Chiefs 52.322824Lions 22.85
1313Giants 48.802925Packers 16.76
1419Jets 46.84302949ers 14.50
1518Steelers46.483131Raiders 8.61
1616Seahawks45.033232Bucs 0.00
Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Chiefs, Broncos. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers.