Friday, December 30, 2005

Blows to the head: Opportunity cost

Blows to the Head

"Indianapolis gave Peyton Manning a $35 million signing bonus? Oh, don't you think maybe teachers and firefighters could have used a little of that money?"

Whenever an athlete signs for an ungodly amount of money, the organ grinders of social indignation crank up some variation of this little tune. It was played loudest in December 2000 when shortstop Alex Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers. The lyrics to this number go like this: With so many far more deserving people -- starving children! crossing guards! conjoined twins! -- how could the owner of the Rangers commit a quarter of a billion dollars to a baseball player?

The reasoning behind that statement is deeply flawed, and it involves a concept economists call "opportunity cost": When you spend money in one place, you are forgoing the opportunity to spend it somewhere else. When you purchase one thing, you are surrendering your ability to get something else. For example, when you buy that brand-new, ice-blue Jaguar, the monetary cost may be $60,000, but the opportunity cost may be a down payment on a house, a shiny boat, or a college education for an orphan. (Shame on you, by the way.) Whenever any of us spends money, we are calculating our own opportunity costs, and we tend to do it efficiently. But few of us are very good at recognizing anyone else's opportunity costs, let alone evaluating them.

Those who bemoan the fact that athletes are pooping in solid-gold toilets while teachers are eating dog food are saying society's priorities are out of whack. Not exactly a novel observation. However, to say that the money the Colts paid Peyton Manning (or at least a portion of it) should instead be distributed to teachers, firefighters, soldiers and the like is to assume that the opportunity cost of paying Manning $35 million is not paying public servants $35 million. That's not the case. The $35 million paid to Manning wasn't just sitting there in the Irsay family's bank account waiting to be spent any old way. The Colts received that money from a number of sources -- broadcast contracts, licensing agreements, stadium revenue, etc. -- all of which are contingent on the Colts fielding a football team. No team, no money. Further, unless you are the Arizona Cardinals, the point of fielding a professional football team is to win football games, and hopefully championships. The Colts organization believes that having Manning as their quarterback gives them the best chance to win, and they allocate their resources accordingly.

If it makes people feel better (but it probably won't), we could step back a few rows and look at the millions the Colts receive in revenue. That money comes from TV networks, licensees, concessionaires and others. And where did they get that money? From you and me, of course. When you buy a Peyton Manning replica jersey (or, really, any player's jersey), a tiny but nevertheless real percentage of the sale goes to the Colts, who use it to pay Manning. When you buy a bottle of Gatorade or a thing of Viagra or anything else advertised during NFL games, a tiny percentage goes to ESPN to buy advertising time during Sunday night football. Part of that ad fee ends up going to the Colts via the league's TV contract, and the Colts use it to pay Manning. Same thing with game tickets, big foam hats and any other consumer spending related to the NFL. So don't ask why the Colts are paying Manning $35 million rather than giving it to starving children. It's not an opportunity cost for the team. Instead, try asking why 1 million people are spending $35 apiece on Manning jerseys -- or Tom Brady jerseys or Donovan McNabb bobbleheads or Snickers bars or whatever -- instead of giving that money to starving children. Because if the Colts didn't have football players to give $35 million to, then they wouldn't have $35 million to give to football players. Sounds circular, right? Welcome to Earth.

All that said, don't get me wrong. There is definitely an opportunity cost associated with paying one player $35 million. Namely: That's $35 million you can't use to pay other players. Three years after signing his ridiculous contract with the Rangers, Rodriguez wanted out of Texas because he was tired of losing 90 games a year on a team that appeared to have no hope of improvement. The team, of course, had no hope of improvement because it had committed so much money to Rodriguez that it didn't have any left over to pay for pitching. Oops. Later, Rodriguez would say he didn't understand why people thought all he cared about was money. Turns out he wanted to make $252 million and win World Series titles. They don't pay these boys for their big brains.

(This is the first entry in Blows to the Head, an occasional series on the most common "thinking" errors committed by those who follow sports -- be they fans, journalists, analysts or just That Guy who says he could have made in the pros, too, if he'd really wanted to.)

Week 17 picks

She's only SEVENTEEN ... And here we are: the final weekend of the NFL regular season. I'm not kidding when I say it's depressing. All season long I've been looking forward to Sundays at 1 p.m., when I can plant myself on the couch, turn on the Ticket and forget about life for a few hours. And now it's almost over. I have my routine for Sunday afternoons: Two one-liter bottles of Diet Pepsi -- one for the early games, one for the late games. A printout of the day's lineup with my picks highlighted. I pick two games to watch for the first half, one on each tuner of the TiVo. By pausing one while I watch the other and fast-forwarding through the commercials, I can pretty much stay up to speed on both. If one ends up not being very interesting (blowout, sloppy play), I find another. Over the course of the day, I try to check in on each game at least once. Good times.

The final picks of the regular season are posted on The Writers' Picks over at The Mirl. Standings are also posted. Still hanging in at a respectable sixth out of 30-plus. I appear to be in the mainstream on all of these. Houston-San Francisco is, surprisingly, shaping up to be one of the more compelling games of the weekend. The picks are split dead even.

I'm just a wreck ...

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

Chicago's magic season -- ruined!

Going into Sunday's game at Green Bay, the Chicago Bears had allowed a total of 151 points in 14 games. They were well within sight of the record, set by the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, for the fewest points allowed in a 16-game season: 165. In the middle of the fourth quarter, the Bears were sitting on a 24-7 lead over the dispirited Packers, whose last six drives had produced three punts, one missed field goal and two interceptions, one of which Chicago linebacker Lance Briggs brought back for a touchdown. Green Bay was going nowhere, and the Bears were one step closer to the record.

After a 34-yard, five-and-a-half-minute drive stalled out at the Packers' 40, Bears punter Brad Maynard tried to drop a short kick inside the Green Bay 20, but the Bears gunners overran the punt, and Antonio Chatman brought it back 85 yards for a touchdown. The runback sparked a mini-rally, and the Packers added a field goal before the game was over. And just like that, the Ravens' record was safe.

(Perhaps inspired, the Ravens went out and rolled the Vikings that very night, knocking Minnesota out of playoff contention. What's especially interesting -- not ironic -- is that the Bears play the Vikings in the season finale. If Chicago had held Green Bay to 7 points, it would have gone into Week 17 needing to hold the Vikes to 6 points to break the record. Would that have been easier or harder now that neither Chicago, which is locked into the No. 2 playoff seed, nor Minnesota "has anything to play for"? But hey, if the Bears had held the Packers to just 7, would the Ravens have been similarly inspired? Probably, considering that both the Ravens' QB and their coach were playing to save their jobs. And that making the connection at all was a ridiculous overreach. But it's always fun and irresponsible to ask. I like to "stir" things "up.")

Anyway, for the past few weeks, we've been tracking the progress of the 2005 Bears vs. that of the team to which they are most often compared: the 1985 Bears. Our chart has been updated through Week 16 and can be seen here. The Super Bowl-winning team of '85 allowed 198 points, so unless the Bears let Brad Johnson go nuts and hang 30 on them, this year's club should come out ahead.

What many people (including me) forget, however, is that the stingiest Bears team of the 1980s was not the 1985 team, but rather the 1986 version. The '86 Bears gave up 187 points (though the defense did allow 1 more yard per game, which is statistically insignificant). If this year's team can hold the Vikings to fewer than 19, they'll set the team record -- and post the second-lowest total since the NFL went to the 16 game season in 1978. (The only other teams to allow fewer than 200 points in a season: 2000 Titans, 191; 1978 Steelers, 195; 2002 Buccaneers, 196; 1978 Broncos, 198.)

But those confounded special teams. You hear all the time about kickers missing field goals that could have won the Super Bowl. Oh, boo-hoo. Blown punt coverage on Sunday cost the 2005 Bears the chance at the most prominent historical footnote in the history of footnotes. Bah!

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Week 16 recap

Holiday obligations kept me away from the Sunday Ticket this weekend -- and that's probably for the best, because I went 9-7 in the picks, definitely my worst showing of the year. (I was 7-9 in Week 2, but at that point we were all just guessing on a lot of games. I mean, San Francisco was 1-0 and Denver was 0-1. I'm surprised I got anything right that week.) This Christmas weekend, I was on the road between Virginia and Connecticut during the bulk of Saturday's early games. When we got to our hotel and I turned on the TV, I was behind in eight of the 10 games underway. Things got better, but not much.

I saw snippets of Chargers-Chiefs, Giants-Redskins and Colts-Seahawks; the second half of Bears-Packers; and most of Vikings-Ravens and Patriots-Jets. Having seen so little, I lack the material for the usual recap. But guess what? Because I have such an enormous brain, my preview last week already contains everything you need to know about every game. You just have to know where to look. In keeping with the season, I have used GREEN to highlight the relevant words in the games I got right, and RED to highlight the relevant words in the games I got wrong. All I want to add is that I don't know where my head was at when I wrote about J.P. Losman starting for Buffalo. Losman is hurt and didn't start. So that's why the Bills beat the Bengals ...
  • Dallas at Carolina: The Redskins' defense bottled and throttled Drew Bledsoe. The Panthers' front seven is even better. I pick Carolina, but if the Panthers lose, their season is done, regardless of whether they make the playoffs.

  • Buffalo at Cincinnati: The Bengals are just itching to kick the crap out of someone in their final home game. Over/under on J.P. Losman interceptions: 5.

  • Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The Steelers are way too motivated. Pittsburgh by 10.

  • Jacksonville at Houston: Houston always plays Jacksonville tough. Unfortunately for the Texans, the Jaguars got caught looking ahead last week and won't let it happen again. I pick the Jaguars.

  • San Diego at Kansas City: Arrowhead is incredibly tough in December, blah blah blah. If I pick K.C. and the Chiefs lose, I have no good explanation. If I pick the Chargers and they lose, I just talk about how tough Arrowhead is for visiting teams in December. San Diego wins.

  • Tennessee at Miami: The Dolphins are shifting their focus to next year; so are the Titans. In both cases, that points to a Miami win.

  • Detroit at New Orleans: Hot loser-on-loser action. Go with the "home" team.

  • San Francisco at St. Louis: There is precedent for the 49ers beating the Rams this season. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Rams.

  • Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons are the dude from The Sixth Sense. Tune in this week as they figure out the secret. Bucs roll.

  • New York Giants at Washington: This one could easily go either way, but I'm not convinced about the Redskins. Plus, 36-0 still makes a convincing argument. It's a big risk taking Eli Manning on the road, but what the hell.

  • Philadelphia at Arizona: Oh God, who cares? Let's say the Cardinals, just because they're at home.

  • Oakland at Denver: The Broncos are in the same mood as the Bengals.

  • Indianapolis at Seattle: I expect Seattle to win, but not because Indy will be distracted by the terrible tragedy that befell the Dungy family. I expect Seattle to win because Indy will be focused on nothing but giving Dungy a Super Bowl championship. So I'll take the Seahawks.

  • Chicago at Green Bay: I think I speak for most of America when I say: We're tired of watching the Packers lose on national TV.

  • Minnesota at Baltimore: One great game on Monday night does not make a team great. The temperature is forecast to be 45-50 degrees, which bodes well for Minnesota. Vikings, I guess. -- especially if Washington and Atlanta both lose on Saturday.

  • New England at New York Jets: Patriots end the ABC Monday night era with a blowout.

THIS WEEK: 9-7
SEASON: 164-76
(68.3%)



POW-R-'ANKINGS FOR WEEK 16
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet, Ethernet, ARPANET, Aqua Net or any other -net. Honed by master mathematicians, lauded by football enthusiasts, the formula behind them predicted 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners, and 14 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the POW-R-'ANKINGS system. Get it? I mean, spaceships go to the moon with wider error margins than this. If Galileo or Copernicus had had science like this on his side, he'd have been Pimp No. 1 for all time. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: W16 = This week's ranking. W15 = Last week's ranking. PWR = POW-R centigrade score)
W16W15TEAMPWRW16W15TEAMPWR
11 Colts 100.001717Dolphins 51.25
22 Seahawks 97.841819Ravens 41.93
39 Steelers 85.011920Packers 36.93
44 Bears 84.712022Rams 34.67
58 Broncos 84.382121Vikings 34.24
63 Chargers 81.012223Eagles 34.03
75 Panthers 79.672325Cardinals33.31
86 Giants 75.982424Raiders 28.70
97 Bengals 75.832527Lions 27.56
1010Jaguars 70.592626Titans 27.45
1112Redskins67.012718Browns 26.70
1211Falcons 62.952828Bills 24.81
1313Patriots62.502929Jets 14.20
1414Chiefs 62.353031Saints 9.05
1515Cowboys 59.113130Texans 8.10
1616Bucs 55.34323249ers 0.00

Teams eliminated this week* from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Giants, Panthers. Teams previously eliminated: Texans, Titans, Packers, Saints, 49ers, Jets, Bills, Ravens, Browns, Vikings, Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders, Lions, Eagles, Rams, Redskins, Steelers, Cowboys, Falcons, Chiefs, Chargers, Buccaneers.
*Though the Patriots have posted five losses, they've proved they can win the Super Bowl with an 11-5 record. So they get a pass for now.

Monday, December 26, 2005

Eyes of history are on NFC West

With one game left in the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks are slumped against the door jamb of history. If Seattle beats Green Bay next weekend and if the other three teams in its division all lose, the Seahwaks will finish the season with more wins than the rest of their division combined. NFC West standings after Week 16:

NFC WESTWL
Seahawks132
Rams 510
Cardinals510
49ers 312

The whole division is really going to have to pull together, but they can do this. Arizona stands a good chance of losing to the Colts' third-stringers this weekend. The Rams are facing a desperate Dallas team. And if the 49ers step up their game, they can lose the Reggie Bush Bowl to the Texans.

Should all the pieces fall into place, the 2005 NFC West will have done something only two other divisions have done in all NFL-AFL history, and it will be the first division to have done it over a 16-game season. The others accomplished it in 14-game seasons:

1975 NFC WEST WL
Rams 122
49ers 59
Falcons410
Saints 212

1961 AFL WESTWL
Chargers122
Texans68
Broncos 311
Raiders212

The 1962 AFL West came close to repeating the feat. The division leader in '62 was the Texans (the Dallas Texans, the precursor to the Kansas City Chiefs), who had a record of 11-3. The Broncos went 6-7; the Chargers, 4-9; and the Raiders, 1-13. So the Texans had the same number of wins as the rest of the division combined, which is where Seattle stands now. The most recent division to make a run at this mark was the 2002 NFC North. That year, the Packers finished at 12-4, the Vikings at 6-10, the Bears at 4-12 and the Lions at 3-13. The Vikings and Lions played each other on the final weekend, and Minnesota won, 38-36. Had those two teams just used their heads, they could have ended the game in a tie and earned a little bit of fame for themselves. But they were too "good" for that.

So this is what's on the line this week for the teams in the NFC West. The Cards, Rams and Niners have nothing to play for except "pride." But if they had any pride, they wouldn't be 5-10 and 3-12, would they? They need to go out there and get their asses kicked. For history's sake.

Scraping the bottom of the bowls

Temple gets a bowl bid

It appears that we are now well into the college football bowl season, when teams that put together a successful regular season (loosely defined) are rewarded with a trip to a beautiful city (again, loosely defined) to play a game in the national spotlight (ditto). Down and Distance doesn't spend a lot of time on college football, of course, but since it's that bowlful time of year, let's take a peek.

We start with math. There are 28 bowl games. Each has two participating teams. Thus, 56 teams make it to a bowl. There are about 120 Division I-A teams. So, every year, close to half of all major college football teams make it to a bowl game. You put that many teams in the postseason, and you're guaranteed to end up with some awful games. Some games, however, are more consistently awfuller than others.

Any clown can tell you what he thinks about the Rose Bowl, which this year doubles as the national championship game. Same with the other BCS bowls -- Sugar, Orange, Fiesta -- or even the bowls that I refer to as second-tier games, such as the Gator, Peach, Capital One or Cotton. These well-known, well-watched games match two strong teams, are played in attractive, warm-weather cities, and offer compelling storylines. I'm not terribly interested in games like that. What really gets the blood pumping are the games at the other end of the spectrum, the awfuller games spit out by our mathematics. Games I like to call the bottom-feeder bowls.

Bottom-feeder bowls are the lowest of the low. Scummy games played in half-empty stadiums, these bowls exist solely to separate fools from their money. No one goes to these games unless their team is playing, which is why they feature either a local team or a 6-5 team from a major school that "travels well." For players, these games aren't so much a reward for a good season ("Win this one and we go to the Fort Worth Bowl!") as they are punishment for a disappointing one ("We have to win this one, or we're going to the MPC Computers Bowl!").

What are the criteria for a bottom-feeder bowl?
  • Quality of matchup is obviously a top consideration. The GMAC Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, has many, many strikes against it, but it also has an affiliation with the Mid-American Conference, the most underrated, underappreciated league in the country. That tie-in ultimately redeems the game. Other bowls aren't so lucky. They're left to scour the standings and scoop up the absolute dregs: the 7-4 and 6-5 teams that barely eked out a winning record playing a slate of chumps and I-AA deadbeats. Put simply, a bottom-feeder bowl doesn't get bowl-worthy teams; it gets bowl-eligible teams.
  • Venue is also important. Good bowls are usually played in good places. Bad bowls are often played in hellholes. And some cities have both a good bowl and a bad one. Orlando has the decent Capital One Bowl and the degenerate Champs Sports Bowl. Before Katrina, New Orleans had both the powerhouse Sugar Bowl and the pathetic New Orleans Bowl. If a bowl is a red-headed stepchild in its own city, it's a good candidate for bottom-feeder status.
  • Sponsorship is critical nowadays. In the 1990s, much fun was made of the Poulan/Weed Eater Independence Bowl. The name was indeed ridiculous, but Weed Eater made perfect sense as a sponsor. It was a nationally known brand that dovetailed perfectly with the target audience for college football. Today, though purists beat their chests about it, nearly every bowl has a title sponsor. (The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, for example, is the perfect marriage of sponsor and bowl.) In fact, sponsorship is such a part of the games that any bowl that doesn't have a title sponsor is probably a mess.
  • History should be taken into account. The Independence, Liberty and Sun bowls may give us plenty of duds, but they've been around for 30, 50 and 70 years. These games have tradition, and that counts for something.
  • TV coverage counts, too! The BCS games are on ABC, of course, and will move to Fox next year. Each broadcast network takes one other game: ABC shows the Capital One Bowl; CBS has been handling the Sun Bowl since 1968; Fox has had the Cotton Bowl since 1999; and NBC does the Gator Bowl. The remainder of the bowls are on ESPN, except for three that have been consigned to the ghetto of ESPN2. The lower a game sits on the TV ladder, the greater the chance it's a bottom-feeder.
  • Payouts are a good barometer. The BCS games pay each school $14 million to $17 million. Second-tier games pay $1.5 million and up. Most bottom-feeders get away with the NCAA's bare minimum: $750,000.
With these factors in mind, we can flush the meaningful bowls and assemble our list of the Ten Worst Bowl Games. Be aware, however, that we are speaking about each bowl as an institution, not just in the context of this year's game. In italics are the site of the bowl, the network showing the game, and the payout to each participating team:

10. Insight Bowl
Phoenix / ESPN / $750,000
This game bills itself as "College Football Like You've Never Seen It Before," and I guess I can't argue with the slogan. I've never seen a bowl game between two middling teams (this year, 6-5 Arizona State and 7-4 Rutgers) played in a baseball stadium (the Arizona Diamondbacks' Chase Field) in the same metro area (Phoenix) that hosts a much larger, eminently more interesting bowl (Fiesta). But that's just me. This game started in Tucson as the Copper Bowl in 1989; Domino's Pizza and Weiser Lock each served as the title sponsor before the Fiesta Bowl bought the game (yes, bought it) in 1997 and later moved it to Phoenix. The name was changed to the Insight.com Bowl in 1997. Five years later, the ".com" disappeared, for obvious reasons, and the game became just the Insight Bowl. Quick quiz: What does Insight.com do? I don't know what it does, but I know what it doesn't do: sponsor a necessary bowl game.

9. Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl presented by Bridgestone
Nashville / ESPN / $780,000
The world was not crying out for another bowl game in 1998, but Nashville had built a huge, expensive stadium for an NFL team and was looking for something else to do with it. So was born the Music City Bowl, with not one but two sponsors on its letterhead. This year's game matched up the crummiest bowl-eligible teams from the Big Ten (seventh-place Minnesota) and the ACC (eighth-place Virginia). The only reason the Music City Bowl doesn't rank lower is that Nashville is a great city and a tourist destination, but no one should have to sit through a game like this.

8. Emerald Bowl
San Francisco / ESPN / $750,000
Now in its third season, this game can always be counted on to feature two barely bowl-eligible teams. This year's winners are Utah (6-5) and Georgia Tech (7-4). The Emerald Bowl is not named after the exquisite green gem but rather for a brand of snack nuts. For this game, a football field has to be shoehorned into a baseball stadium, SBC Park, which forces the two teams to share the same sideline.

7. MPC Computers Bowl
Boise / ESPN / $750,000
Just because there are worse places than Boise, Idaho, to be playing football outside in the dead of winter doesn't mean it makes any sense to play football outside in Boise, Idaho, in the dead of winter. The best thing this game had going for it when it began in 1997 (besides the blue turf) was the name: the Humanitarian Bowl. It was a particularly apt name; it took a special kind of human being -- selfless, giving -- to want to play in this dud. Today, however, it's known as the MPC Computers Bowl, or you could just call it "Boise State's seventh home game," because for the fourth time in nine years, Boise State is one of the teams playing.

6. Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando / ESPN / $862,500
It's played in the same stadium and run by the same organization as the Capital One Bowl, but the resemblance ends there. Whereas Capital One has emerged as an attractive second-tier bowl that draws up to 70,000 people, Champs is an ugly afterthought drawing far less than half as many. In only 15 years, this game has gone through seven names and two cities and has been played anytime from Dec. 20 to Jan. 2. Beginning in Miami, it spent its first three years as the Blockbuster Bowl, then five years as the Carquest Bowl, two as the Micronpc Bowl, and one (1999, during the dot-com boom) as the Micronpc.com Bowl. It then moved to Orlando and became the Visit Florida Tangerine Bowl for one year and the Mazda Tangerine Bowl for two. It became the Champs Sports Bowl last year. "Cialis Bowl" can't be far behind.

5. Meineke Car Care Bowl
Charlotte / ESPN2 / $750,000
Another bowl that exists because a city had a stadium with a lot of open dates on its calendar. Basically, the only difference between this game and the Music City Bowl is that the average American views Nashville as a getaway destination, while Charlotte is where one goes on business. This game is in only its fourth year and has already shed its initial sponsor, so what was the Continental Tire Bowl is now the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Talk about a lateral move. The game has drawn large crowds, thanks to the involvement of regional teams. But a few more games like this year's dreadful offering -- 6-5 South Florida vs. 6-5 North Carolina State -- should put a stop to that.

4. New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans (Lafayette, La.) / ESPN / $750,000
This game was created in 2001 because the Sun Belt Conference had been unable to persuade any other bowls to take its champion. I wonder why: This year's Sun Belt representative, Arkansas State, finished 6-5, the worst record a team can have and still be bowl-eligible. And that's the league champion, mind you. The Sun Belt, if you didn't know, is made up entirely of teams (Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas, Middle Tennessee, etc.) that football factories use to pad out their non-conference schedule with easy wins. Completely overshadowed by the Sugar Bowl, the game has no sponsors (interested?) and even less local interest. Because of Hurricane Katrina, it had to be played this year in Lafayette.

3. Fort Worth Bowl
Fort Worth / ESPN / $750,000
Just three years old, and one can only wonder if it'll make it to five. It's surprising that no one has yet dubbed it "the Fort Worthless Bowl" ... except to do so, that someone would have had to notice it being played. Meaningless in the extreme.

2. EV1.net Houston Bowl
Houston / ESPN2 / $1.2 million
A fat payout allows this 4-year-old bowl to show a higher breed of dog: TCU (10-1 but not nearly that good) vs. Iowa State (7-4 and having choked away a Big 12 Championship Game berth for the second straight year). Nevertheless, an utter waste of time. The best thing you can say about it is that it's no longer known by its original name: the Galleryfurniture.com Bowl.

1. San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego / ESPN2 / $750,000
The very latest in nonessential football. We can debate whether it makes economic sense for a company to spend money sponsoring a bowl game, but doing so definitely generates national exposure. That's why MasterCard, Outback Steakhouse, even the now-defunct Galleryfurniture.com, sponsor games. But you tell me what getting its name on ESPN2 is doing for the San Diego County Credit Union, which serves residents of only two California counties. The matchup for the inaugural game was even less impressive than the rinky-dink name: Navy (7-4) vs. Colorado State (6-5). I love Navy, OK? And I think it's great when a service academy gets to go bowling. But the Middies' seven wins this year came against Temple (0-11), Kent State (1-10), Rice (1-10), Duke (1-10), Tulane (2-9), and Army and Air Force (4-7 each). That's just about the cheapest seven-win season you can imagine. Nevertheless, the Poinsettia Bowl courted Navy hard, and after the Middies won the game, they were invited back to play any year they're eligible. Why? San Diego is a Navy town, and having the academy involved is the only way organizers can generate any local interest for a bowl deep, deep in the shadow of the Holiday Bowl, a San Diego institution for 27 years. The invitation means Navy would get an extra home game any year that it can string together six wins. If it keeps playing such a thin schedule, that shouldn't be a problem.

Friday, December 23, 2005

Week 16 picks

Picks for the penultimate week of the season have been posted on The Writers' Picks at The Mirl. I'll be with my wife's family for Christmas weekend and won't get a chance to see many, if any, games, so I don't expect to have much in the way of a postmortem. Quick hits going into the weekend:
  • Dallas at Carolina: The Redskins' defense bottled and throttled Drew Bledsoe. The Panthers' front seven is even better. I pick Carolina, but if the Panthers lose, their season is done, regardless of whether they make the playoffs.
  • Buffalo at Cincinnati: The Bengals are just itching to kick the crap out of someone in their final home game. Over/under on J.P. Losman interceptions: 5.
  • Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The Steelers are way too motivated. Pittsburgh by 10.
  • Jacksonville at Houston: Houston always plays Jacksonville tough. Unfortunately for the Texans, the Jaguars got caught looking ahead last week and won't let it happen again. I pick the Jaguars.
  • San Diego at Kansas City: Arrowhead is incredibly tough in December, blah blah blah. If I pick K.C. and the Chiefs lose, I have no good explanation. If I pick the Chargers and they lose, I just talk about how tough Arrowhead is for visiting teams in December. San Diego wins.
  • Tennessee at Miami: The Dolphins are shifting their focus to next year; so are the Titans. In both cases, that points to a Miami win.
  • Detroit at New Orleans: Hot loser-on-loser action. Go with the "home" team.
  • San Francisco at St. Louis: There is precedent for the 49ers beating the Rams this season. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Rams.
  • Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons are the dude from The Sixth Sense. Tune in this week as they figure out the secret. Bucs roll.
  • New York Giants at Washington: This one could easily go either way, but I'm not convinced about the Redskins. Plus, 36-0 still makes a convincing argument. It's a big risk taking Eli Manning on the road, but what the hell.
  • Philadelphia at Arizona: Oh God, who cares? Let's say the Cardinals, just because they're at home.
  • Oakland at Denver: The Broncos are in the same mood as the Bengals.
  • Indianapolis at Seattle: I expect Seattle to win, but not because Indy will be distracted by the terrible tragedy that befell the Dungy family. I expect Seattle to win because Indy will be focused on nothing but giving Dungy a Super Bowl championship. So I'll take the Seahawks.
  • Chicago at Green Bay: I think I speak for most of America when I say: We're tired of watching the Packers lose on national TV.
  • Minnesota at Baltimore: One great game on Monday night does not make a team great. The temperature is forecast to be 45-50 degrees, which bodes well for Minnesota. Vikings, I guess. -- especially if Washington and Atlanta both lose on Saturday.
  • New England at New York Jets: Patriots end the ABC Monday night era with a blowout.
Merry Christmas to most. Happy Hanukkah to others. Drive safely to all.

Thursday, December 22, 2005

Heartbreak in Indianapolis

James Dungy, eldest son of Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy, died Monday at his apartment in Florida. He was 18.

Too often when writing about football, we throw around words like "heartbreaking" or "devastating loss" to describe ultimately trivial events. Then something like this happens to remind us what the words really mean. When we stand before God and he asks us who we are and what we did in our time here, he doesn't want to hear about how we found ways to win. He wants to hear how we found ways to love.

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Put a cork in it

Cold Duck would be even better

The Indianapolis Colts' bid for an undefeated season ended Sunday when they lost to the San Diego Chargers. At 13-0 coming into the game, they were the last NFL team with a perfect record for 2005. Now they're 13-1. And that means it's time for the Champagne Story.

Perhaps you've heard the story: At the beginning of every NFL season, each surviving member of the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the only team ever to go undefeated, puts a bottle of champagne on ice. Then, when that season's last unbeaten team suffers its first loss, they take out the champagne, pop the corks and toast the demise of the latest challenge to their legacy. In some versions of the tale, they actually get together every year for this ceremony.

There are two ways to frame this story, and everyone who tells it must choose one or the other. This first way is to venerate the '72 Dolphins as football royalty, bow before their orange-and-teal throne and raise one's own glass to their eternal glory. Gregg Easterbrook, never one to let up when there's a dead horse to be beaten, takes this tack year after year. Here's how he phrased it in 2000, when the Minnesota Vikings lost to Tampa Bay after opening the season 7-0:
"Gentlemen of 1972, TMQ hopes you enjoyed your Sunday afternoon draught. You earned it and are likely to savor these bubbles annually until the day when the football gods summon you to Asgard for song and feasting."
The other way to handle this story is to hold up the '72 Dolphins as a collection of sad old men desperate to keep the color from bleeding out of their decades-old day in the sun. Monday, on his ESPN show Jim Rome Is Burning, Jim Rome spoke of
"... old 'Phins players, wearing their Dolphin gear over their dress shirts and toasting to another season of bitterness. Close call, eh, fellas? ... If you don't like being depicted like that, stop acting like that. ... Every last one of these guys was on his knees praying for a Charger win, and they got it."
This, er, less sympathetic portrayal has lately become the dominant one.

Every year in October, November or even December, the Champagne Story is pulled out of the archives, updated with the losing team's name (this year, the Colts), its pre-loss record (13-0) and the number of years since '72 (33), and shipped out on the wires. And as soon as the story moves, every one of the old Dolphins becomes That Guy Who Went to High School With Your Dad.

You know That Guy. About 20 years ago, he set all the football records at his high school. Ever since, he's been going to the games, sitting high up in the bleachers and rooting against any kid who might break his records. Nobody likes That Guy, but the bartender puts up with him because he comes in after every game and tips him five bucks to celebrate the kid's heartbreak.

The Champagne Story has become such an albatross weighing on the reputations of the surviving Dolphins that in recent years many of them have publicly denied the story. They say it's been blown way out of proportion (NFL.com stories notwithstanding). When the last team suffers it's first loss, they say, the most any of them really do is use it as an opportunity to reconnect and talk about old times. Within hours of the Colts' loss Sunday, the '72 Dolphins' coach, Don Shula, and their quarterback, Bob Griese, appeared at a news conference to praise Indy's run at history and say that they, too, had been rooting for the Colts to run the table.

So is there a champagne toast or isn't there? As with so many other matters in life, the truth probably lies in the middle. I believe the old Dolphins when they say there's never been a regularly scheduled, annual group celebration (though they can't dispute the footage from their occasional get-togethers staged for the cameras at one of Shula's restaurants). But I also think they never had a problem with the story when it was told in the fawning, Easterbrookian style. So long as the Champagne Story was a paean to ageless titans, rather than an indictment of aging has-beens, it was jake with them. But now that it's doing their image more harm than good, they want it to stop.

This leads us to the question of who's keeping this Fish tale alive if the '72 Dolphins themselves say it's not true. Think about it: What group in America worships 1970s icons most fervently? What group has been conditioned to believe that its heroes are the only ones that count? What group would most identify with 50- to 60-year-old men refusing to let go of their youth?

Baby boomers.

Folks my age and younger have spent our entire lives being lectured by baby boomers that their music was better, their drugs were trippier, their sex was more enjoyable, their ideals were purer, their causes were righter. Their shag carpet was shaggier, their wife swapping was groovier, their family-room paneling was more out-of-sight. Everything the boomers "dug" was the Best That Ever Was. (To this day, they even have a niche magazine dedicated to venerating boomer culture. It's called Newsweek.)

Boomers keep the Champagne Story alive because the 1972 Dolphins are The Greatest Football Team Ever. And in the boomer mind, any group of people their age whose signature accomplishment remains unmatched 30-plus years later should get together as often as possible to wallow in it. (Have you heard? The Rolling Stones are on tour again!) Because if the memory doesn't die, neither will they. The Champagne Story has such a strong appeal to the boomers because it's exactly what they would do. Further, by telling the Champagne Story, they get to experience the party vicariously. It's almost like they've been invited! The fact that it might not be true doesn't get in the way of the telling. I mean, bands agreed to play Woodstock mostly because they were promised enormous paychecks, but you don't hear about that much nowadays, do you?

So, who are these baby boomers recycling the story year after year? Media types, mostly -- but not serious sports journalists. The men and women who know pro football -- the writers, broadcasters and webjockeys who really know its traditions and history -- are all quite aware that the story as told isn't accurate, and they're loath to repeat it. In fact, sports journalists are often the first to point out that the Dolphins' perfect season relied on a lot of wins against 3-11 and 4-9-1 teams. No, the ones responsible for spreading the Champagne Story are the Easterbrooks of the world, the ones on the sports periphery. (Down and Distance excluded, of course!) They've been taken in by what is referred to in the news business as "a story that's too good to check." These people have also somehow gotten a measure of their own self-worth wrapped around the axle of the battered jalopy that is the 1972 Dolphins Bandwagon. In the past 33 years, they've only gotten themselves more tangled.

There's historical precedent for this. In 1961, as Roger Maris was closing in on Babe Ruth's 34-year-old record of 60 home runs in a season, he was the target of vicious attacks, from inside and outside the media. People who had grown up idolizing Ruth, and reporters who'd ridden on Ruth's coattails for years, considered Maris' pursuit of the home run record a desecration of Ruth's legacy. (In a way, they were right: Maris was by all accounts a decent, humble man, while Ruth was a drunkard and a womanizer, though his buddies in the press covered it up.) As Maris closed in on 60, the attacks mounted. By the time he broke the record, nerves had nearly killed him. And baseball commissioner Ford Frick, who had carried Ruth's water for years, added the final insult by putting an asterisk next to Maris' deed in the record book.

Just as Ruth's adoring legions screamed in Maris' ear all through 1961, so do the '72 Dolphin devotees crank up the Champagne Story whenever an NFL team starts a year 6-0: You're nothing unless you go undefeated. It doesn't matter unless you go undefeated. But they don't realize that society has changed, that what it means to be great has changed. Resting on your laurels is just fine, but nowadays, people expect you to rest on them -- not get up off them every year and wag them in everyone's face. Further, when someone comes along with a chance to match (or better) your accomplishments, you're expected to either root for him or keep your damn mouth shut. In the early 1980s, Franco Harris was on the verge of breaking Jim Brown's all-time rushing record, and Brown tore Harris down publicly. He accused Harris of staying in the league way past his prime just for the sake of the record. (It was true, but shut up.) Flash forward 20 years or so, and Emmitt Smith is about to break the rushing record, which was then held by the late Walter Payton. Did Payton's family rip Smith for hanging around just to set the record? No. The Paytons were there to hug Smith and call him their brother and assure him that Walter was looking down and giving him the thumbs-up. Maris' family did the same thing in 1998, when Mark McGwire was bearing down on the home run record. Not only were the Marises cheering the whole way, they were actually at Busch Stadium when McGwire hit No. 62.

Just last year, another storied Dolphins record was threatened: Dan Marino's 48 touchdown passes in 1984. And this one ultimately fell. When Peyton Manning -- Colts quarterback Peyton Manning -- broke the record, Marino was there to congratulate him on live TV. You could tell that Marino would have liked to have held on to the record, but he knew that the right thing to do -- the only thing to do -- was to pay homage to the new king.

After 30 years, the '72 Dolphins may finally be wising up. They may finally understand that it's far, far better for their image for them to be seen rooting for their accomplishment to be matched -- rooting for someone to succeed, rather than fail. They may realize that it's in their interest to be seen talking about how hard it is to go undefeated, and offering advice to the latest team trying to do it. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Because you know what? No team is going to go undefeated again. Not when NFL teams are as evenly matched as they are today. Not with a schedule two games longer and a media climate infinitely more intense than in 1972. Every year from now on, the '72 Dolphins could pop up to be hailed as legends while at the same time being praised as great guys and great sports.

Or they can let the Champagne Story continue, and each year they'll become more marginalized as pissy, burned-out glory junkies desperately craving another fix. It's too bad, really, because the Champagne Story is now out of their hands.

It's in their fans'.

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Week 15 recap

The most amazing thing I saw in the NFL this weekend wasn't the Chargers knocking down the Colts. It wasn't the triumphant return of the Ass-Kicking New England Patriots. It wasn't Tiki Barber running for 800 yards against Kansas City. It wasn't even Kyle Orton's Last Stand. It was the fact that there were five games between teams that had "nothing to play for," and in all but one of those games, the teams slugged it out like a Super Bowl berth was on the line. The games weren't necessarily pretty -- there's a reason the teams in these games had long since been eliminated from the playoffs -- but Jets-Dolphins, Browns-Raiders and Eagles-Rams went down to the wire, and Cardinals-Texans might have, if all of Arizona's quarterbacks hadn't died. (The less said about Packers-Ravens, the better.) Can you imagine two 30-45 NBA teams playing so hard in the last games of the season? Two 70-82 baseball teams? Absolutely not. But in the No Foolin' League you play to win the game.

Now that I've got that little love song out of the way, I'll swear a mean blue streak over the fact that Down and Distance missed four of those five "meaningless" games in this week's picks. Considering that I went 10-6 for the week, It's clear I'm far better at forecasting the outcome of titanic matchups than dinghies.

What I got right, and what I got wrong:

CORRECT PICKS
New England over Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers conducted a clinic on how you can beat the Patriots: Protect your quarterback and let your receivers take advantage of the weak secondary. That clinic lasted all of three plays on the Bucs' first drive. Then the Patriots conducted a clinic on how to beat the Buccaneers: Stack the line of scrimmage to cut off the inside running lanes and pressure the QB. That clinic lasted the rest of the afternoon. With the Bucs' run game shut down and Chris Simms getting the crap knocked out of him, it wasn't a good day to have a Jolly Roger on your hat. Simms didn't really do anything wrong; he just didn't have time to do anything right. And thus the Patriots are close to reclaiming their team-to-beat status, and the Buccaneers are right back where they were two weeks ago: looking up at Carolina.

New York Giants over Kansas City; Neither Good Eli nor Bad Eli showed up for the Giants, just Mediocre Eli. Fortunately for Big Blue, Untouchable Tiki was in the house, so New York could have put Balding Tim in at QB and still won. If I were Dick Vermeil, I'd have my players running tackling drills all week. Those skills will be valuable in the future. Because 2005? Done.

Denver over Buffalo: When I tuned in near halftime, the Broncos were down 7-0 and had done nothing of consequence, and yet I didn't have any doubt that they were going to win because the Bills are that bad.

Jacksonville over San Francisco: As a reward for playing the toughest early-season schedule this side of San Diego, the Jaguars got a playoff stretch consisting of the 49ers, Texans and Titans -- so easy, it made me laff till my belly jiggled like a bowl fulla jelly. Naturally, because these are the Jaguars, they played down (way, way, way down) to their opponent's level. Had San Francisco's quarterback not been Alex Smith, the 49ers might have put up 16 points. Which means Jacksonville would have scored 17.

Miami over New York Jets: Sage Rosenfels wins another one late. Matt Millen, give this man an enormous contract! Earlier in the year, I asked whether coach Nick Saban would be a Jimmy Johnson or a Steve Spurrier after moving from college to the pros. I'm starting to think I have my answer. The question now is: What would he offer, and to whom, to get into position to land a top QB in the draft?

Carolina over New Orleans: You've got to hand it to the Panthers. Well, actually, the Buccaneers just handed it to the Panthers. It being the NFC South title. The question now is whether Carolina will hand it back.

Seattle over Tennessee: You see Seattle come into this game at 11-2, and you see Tennessee come in at 4-9. As the game progresses, you wonder why the Seahawks need a late rally to win. Then you remember how hard it is for West Coast teams to fly all the way across the country to play a game at the equivalent of 10 a.m. Seattle time. Then you understand why that late rally was so important: If the Seahawks can claim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, they won't have to fly all the way across the country to play a game at the equivalent of 10 a.m. Seattle time. Then you see why I'd make a game like this a Best Bet.

Pittsburgh over Minnesota: On the late edition of SportsCenter, Tom Jackson, whom I'm not afraid to admit I like, declared Minnesota's performance his "disappointment" for the week. He said of the Vikings:
"They did all the things they hadn't done during that six-game winning streak. Brad Johnson making mistakes down in the red zone. They had four trips into the red zone; they only scored three points off those four trips. ... They weren't opportunistic on defense. They basically got 'out-physicalled,' if you will, by the Pittsburgh Steelers, something they hadn't done during their winning streak."
Here's something else the Vikings didn't do during their winning streak: play a good football team. (Forget the Giants game. The Giants brought their Z game against the Vikings, which is why Minnesota was even able to complete, let alone win.) Minnesota didn't have a chance Sunday against the Steelers, who have considerable experience playing and winning the kind of games the Vikings were pretending they'd played this year.

Cincinnati over Detroit: This game was finished 12 minutes into the first quarter. The Bengals, long the laughingstock of the league, steamrolled to their first division title, first playoff berth and first winning season since 1990. They've already guaranteed their best record since 1988 and have a solid chance at the best record in team history. But why dwell on the job Marvin Lewis has done in building the Cincinnati franchise when we can continue to rubberneck at the job Matt Millen has done in destroying the Detroit franchise? To wit: I don't actually run a professional football team, so you'll have to excuse me if my ideas are a little "out there." But it would seem to me -- just a fan, mind you! -- that if your team is going to bench its starting quarterback and let him take the blame for five years of your poor draft choices, your inept coaching and your incompetent management, then you should at least be committed to keeping him on the bench. But there was Joey Harrington in the game in the fourth quarter, after Jeff Garcia had once again failed to play any better behind the same awful line and throwing to the same awful receivers.

Chicago over Atlanta: The really amazing thing is that the Bears probably would have won this game even if Lovie Smith hadn't done the absolutely, positively, can't-stress-enough-how-much-it-was-the right thing and yanked Kyle Orton. After a full half of watching Orton miss the open man again and again (repeat again six more times), the whole of Chicago howled with delight as Rex Grossman came out. With his first pass, complete to Muhsin Muhammad for 22 yards, Grossman took the starting QB job back for good ... or at least until he breaks another leg bone. Which should happen, oh, sometime in the second quarter at Green Bay. Meanwhile, poor Michael Vick (13-of-32 for 122 yards, no TDs, two interceptions, 25.7 rating) continues to pay for the hubris of Falcons fans.
(The Down and Distance '85 Bears vs. '05 Bears Season Tracker has been updated. See latest results here.)

INCORRECT PICKS
Indianapolis over San Diego: Though I picked the Colts to win, I'm not exactly shocked by the outcome (explanation). Man, was this game refreshing: For once, a team came into a game with Indianapolis understanding that to beat the Colts, you have to play better football than they do. The Chargers didn't take stupid penalties trying to be tuff. They didn't waste possessions with gadget plays and garbage. They came into Indianapolis and punched the Colts in the mouth. Now if only someone would acknowledge that the Chargers won this game more than the Colts lost it.

Dallas over Washington: When the wheels come off, they pretty much mow down everybody on the visitors' sideline. "If the Cowboys score more than 17," I had said, "they win." Well, they didn't, and they didn't. These teams appeared headed in entirely different directions Sunday. The Redskins' million-year-old quarterback threw four touchdowns. The Cowboys' million-year-old quarterback produced four turnovers. The Redskins defense took a can opener to Drew Bledsoe and made a necklace out of his ears. The Cowboys defense waved cheerily as Washington ball carriers blew past them. Joe Gibbs screamed to the heavens after victory became clear. Bill Parcells screamed at his punter after Dallas was already down by five touchdowns. Considering the opponent and the stakes, it was the biggest game ever played at FedEx Field. Chargers-Colts wasn't Sunday's big surprise. This was.

Oakland over Cleveland: Anyone who rooted for the Redskins in the 1990s could have told the Raiders what kind of coach they were getting when they hired Norv Turner two years ago: the kind of coach who gets seven points out of Kerry Collins, Randy Moss, Jerry Porter and LaMont Jordan. At what point are we allowed to acknowledge that the Cowboys' offense of the Aikman-Smith-Irvin era had more to do with Aikman, Smith and Irvin than with offensive coordinator Turner? Not to take anything away from the devastating arsenal of offensive weapons that is the Cleveland Browns, but ...

St. Louis over Philadelphia: Two, three, four years ago, this would have been a marquee matchup. In 2005, it gets the Sam Rosen/Bill Maas treatment. Gruesome.

Arizona over Houston: It appears the boys in Houston heard all the talk about the Texans taking a dive in order to get the top draft pick. Fun fact: The 2004 49ers and the 2005 Texans have a combined record of 4-26 -- and three of those four wins came against the Cardinals. Every Sunday, I spin the dial and try to check in on each game at least once. When I pulled this one up, Arizona had John Navarre at quarterback. Ugh. Game, and season, over.

Green Bay over Baltimore: One of the cool things about Monday Night Football is that you can get a great game out of a terrible team. A down-on-its-luck club with no chance at the playoffs can get totally amped up for its one and only shot in the national spotlight. Think about the 2-11 Dolphins stunning the 12-1 Patriots a year ago today. But what can you expect when the terrible team in question has already played on MNF twice and another time on Sunday night? Judging by what we saw from the Packers this week ... nothing. The Ravens, however, saw opportunities and jumped on them. Opportunity for Kyle Boller to show he can play at this level. (Thanks, porous Packers secondary!) Opportunity for Jamal Lewis to audition for a new contract. (Thanks, stumblebum Packers D-line!) Opportunity for Brian Billick to save his job by "finishing strong." (Thanks, momentum-killing Packers play-calling!) I'm going to go to my grave wondering why I picked the Packers over and over and over this year. But I'm not the only one. A final note: With their all-black uniforms and bright white shoes and socks, the Ravens looked like a women's aerobics class whenever they huddled up.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 155-69
(69.2%)



POW-R-'ANKINGS FOR WEEK 15
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet, Ethernet, ARPANET, Aqua Net or any other -net. Honed by master mathematicians, lauded by football enthusiasts, the formula behind them predicted 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners, and 14 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the POW-R-'ANKINGS system. Get it? I mean, spaceships go to the moon with wider error margins than this. If Galileo or Copernicus had had science like this on his side, he'd have been Pimp No. 1 for all time. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: W15 = This week's ranking. W14 = Last week's ranking. PWR = POW-R centigrade score)
W15W14TEAMPWRW15W14TEAMPWR
11 Colts 100.001718Dolphins 46.20
22 Seahawks 90.651820Browns 39.77
33 Chargers 80.511928Ravens 38.61
45 Bears 80.272017Packers 38.26
56 Panthers 78.462119Vikings 35.36
64 Giants 77.562221Rams 35.24
78 Bengals 76.272323Eagles 35.01
87 Broncos 76.002422Raiders 33.95
99 Steelers 71.122524Cardinals31.40
1012Jaguars 63.962626Titans 31.07
1110Falcons 62.142725Lions 27.67
1215Redskins61.352827Bills 20.70
1316Patriots58.462929Jets 16.65
1414Chiefs 57.393031Texans 12.46
1511Cowboys 56.523130Saints 11.12
1613Bucs 53.13323249ers 0.00

Team eliminated this week* from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Buccaneers. Teams previously eliminated: Texans, Titans, Packers, Saints, 49ers, Jets, Bills, Ravens, Browns, Vikings, Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders, Lions, Eagles, Rams, Redskins, Steelers, Cowboys, Falcons, Chiefs, Chargers.
*Though the Patriots have posted five losses, they've proved they can win the Super Bowl with an 11-5 record. So they get a pass for now.

Friday, December 16, 2005

Week 15 picks

Though it's our policy to avoid such end-of-game sports radio blah-blah as "crunch time," "put up or shut up" or "gut check" (unless we're being ironic), sometimes it's impossible not to talk along those lines. If it looks like crunch time, sounds like crunch time and quacks like crunch time, we might as well call it crunch time. So I guess it's more a guideline than a policy, then.

It's crunch time, then, for those of us trying to make a name for ourselves in a quixotic quest to pick as many NFL games as possible. When there's only three weeks left in the season, the typical dynamics go kaplooey as playoff-minded teams have to (sigh) put up or shut up and (groan) leave it all out on the field. My selections for this week are posted on The Writers' Picks over at The Mirl. This week it seems like (gnash, gnash) every game counts. Except Monday Night Football, of course, which hasn't had a meaningful late-season game since Joe Namath was in the booth (hyperbole). On closer inspection, 11 of the 16 games this weekend include at least one serious playoff contender, and in six of those 11, both teams are (oh, all right) in the hunt:
  • Tampa Bay at New England: Remember when the knock on the Buccaneers was that they couldn't win in the cold? Chris Simms played his college ball at Texas, and the coldest weather he's played in as a pro was 52 degrees last week at Carolina. Forecast for Saturday in New England: 37 degrees. I don't know if that means anything. I do expect Tom Brady to play. Even if he doesn't, I close my eyes and pick the Patriots.
  • Kansas City at N.Y. Giants: Chiefs back on the road after a tough loss. Let's hope the wildly swinging Manning pendulum is pointing toward "Good Eli." I hold my nose and pick the Giants.
  • San Diego at Indianapolis: If the Colts are going to lose this year, I think this will be the game. But I still can't pick against them. You go 13-0 -- I don't care who it's against -- you deserve the benefit of the doubt.
  • Pittsburgh at Minnesota: Count me among those saying yeah-but about the Vikings' mighty fishy six-game winning streak. And I'm a Minnesota boy! Steelers, for now.
  • Dallas at Washington: The Redskins' propensity for playing pee-wee girls' soccer rather than NFL football in the second half isn't funny anymore. If the Cowboys score more than 17, they win.
  • Atlanta at Chicago: The Falcons have yet to beat anybody who had a winning record at game time. I'm taking the Bearz.
Updated standings are also up. Down and Distance stands alone in second place in the NFL Guru Division and is tied with one other for sixth place overall. It's gut-check time!

Thursday, December 15, 2005

The games they wish they had back

It's like a *soap* opera. Get it?

The postseason hopes of the San Diego Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs took an iceball to the face last weekend when both teams lost, dropping them into a three-way tie with Pittsburgh for the sixth and final AFC playoff spot. In Dallas, the Chiefs lost a heartbreaker to the Cowboys when their kicker pushed the ball wide as time ran out. Across the country in sunny Southern California, the Chargers sleepwalked through the first 58 minutes against Miami before faking a comeback in the final 2.

Both teams are now in high danger of getting locked out of the playoffs. But when they go home to review their seasons and waggle their heads over what could have been, the events of Week 14 will be eminently more painful for the Chargers than for the Chiefs. That seems paradoxical. After all, Kansas City came close enough to spit in the face of fate not once, not twice, not thrice, but four times in the fourth quarter before ultimately losing. The Chargers, meanwhile, spent the entire afternoon with their pants around their ankles. When the final gun sounded, it was a relief.

What makes the difference is that the Chiefs lost on the road to a desperate team that needed this game as much as they did, while the Chargers lost at home to a 5-7 team whose best postseason scenario involved a meteor striking Massachusetts. There's pain, but no shame, in losing to a worthy opponent as the Chiefs did. But losing to a team that you are clearly superior to -- or at least one that you fancy yourself clearly superior to -- is both painful and shameful. And that's why a Chief will look back at Week 14 of 2005 and say, "We came so close ... " while a Charger will look back and say, "What the hell were we doing?"

That said, the Chiefs would not have been forced into that must-win situation in Dallas had they not laid a foul-smelling egg of their own four weeks earlier in Buffalo. That inexcusable 14-3 loss in Week 10 came at the hands of a Bills team that had been thoroughly outplayed by the New Orleans Saints and lost by three touchdowns to the Raiders.

This is the time of year when the playoff bubble is taking on its final shape (round?). Some teams are perched safely in the middle of that bubble (Indianapolis and Seattle). Some sit a tad farther from the center but are still well-situated (Cincinnati and Chicago, for example). Then there are those teams sliding about on the soapy surface of the bubble, hoping to get inside by hook or by crook. Most teams on the bubble will have a game, like San Diego's loss to Miami, that they desperately wish they could have back. That's why they're on the bubble. Even some teams safely in the playoffs are looking back over the schedule and pining for another crack at one or more of their opponents. If we'd have won in Week 3, they say to themselves, we'd be gunning for a division title now rather than a wildcard spot. Or we'd have a shot at a first-round bye. Or home-field advantage.

Call them What-a-Shame Games. They're games that a team should have won but didn't because it underestimated the opponent, or got caught looking ahead, or just read too many of its own press clippings. They generally aren't games between league powers or bitter division rivals. Most often, they pit an "underdog" in overdrive against a "favorite" coasting in neutral. These games aren't lost in the final minutes. They're lost before the coin flip. Down and Distance takes a look at the teams in the playoff hunt and identifies their What-a-Shame Games:

AFC TEAMS
By my count, there are nine teams still alive in the AFC. One of them is undefeated Indianapolis, which has already wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Obviously the Colts don't have a What-a-Shame Game -- and won't have one, even if they lose their last three. This year's feel-good story, Cincinnati, also doesn't have one. They've beaten everyone they were supposed to beat, and their only losses came to playoff-caliber teams (Jaguars, Steelers, Colts). It's the same story with New England. The Patriots have been torn to shreds by injuries, but their only losses have been to the 9-4 Panthers, the 8-5 Chargers, the 10-3 Broncos, the 13-0 Colts and the 8-5 Chiefs. The games that haunt the other six AFC teams:

Denver. Dolphins 34, Broncos 10 (Week 1). Maybe it's a case of first-game butterflies. Maybe it's a matter of needing a couple of games to find out how all the new parts are going to fit into the machine. Whatever the reason, some highly touted, highly talented teams come out flat in the first game of the season. Like the 2005 Broncos. They didn't just lose to a Miami team coming off a 4-12 season, they got blown out. Denver's celebrated running backs could scrape together just 52 yards, and quarterback Jake Plummer threw two fourth-quarter interceptions that killed any chance of a rally. Fittingly, Plummer fumbled when sacked on the last play of the game, and Miami pinup Jason Taylor ran it in for a touchdown. After the loss, the Broncos won nine of their next 10. Denver isn't in great danger of losing the first-round bye, as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Jacksonville -- but what little danger there is can be traced back to this game three months ago.

Jacksonville. Rams 24, Jaguars 21 (Week 8). The Jaguars opened the season 4-2 playing a brutal schedule that included five playoff teams from 2004, plus the resurgent Bengals. After a bye in Week 7, this game marked the beginning of a six-game stretch against the league's C-Squad: the Rams, Texans, Ravens, Titans, Cardinals and Browns. Perhaps the Jags downshifted too far, too early. On their opening drive in St. Louis, the Jaguars gave up a touchdown on a blocked punt. That proved to be the difference against a 3-4 Rams team playing with a backup QB who threw three interceptions. Had Jacksonville won, they'd be neck and neck with Denver for a first-round bye.

Pittsburgh. Ravens 16, Steelers 13 (OT, Week 11). The Steelers were forced to play this game with The Tommy Maddox Experience at quarterback. But they were playing a Ravens team that had lost, convincingly, to the Lions and Titans and hadn't scored a touchdown in more than two full games. Thanks to this game, the Steelers have two losses within the division, compared with just one for the Bengals. That gives the AFC North title -- and a home playoff game -- to Cincinnati.

San Diego. Dolphins 23, Chargers 21 (Week 13). Once in a while, a defense makes Dolphins quarterback Gus Frerotte look like a sharpshooter rather than the broken JUGS machine he usually resembles. The Chargers were that team this week. Coming into the game, San Diego was 8-4, and their playoff hopes rested on losing no more than one of their last four games. Miami was the opponent it never counted on losing to. Now it has to run the table on Indy, Kansas City and Denver. Not bloody likely.

Kansas City. Bills 14, Chiefs 3 (Week 10). In Week 9, the Chiefs beat the Raiders on the last play of the game when Dick Vermeil went for the winning touchdown rather than the tying field goal. (It seems like an even better idea now, considering what happened in Dallas.) Football fans cheered and expected, as I did, that the ballsy move would ignite a K.C. run to the playoffs. That run ran out of steam exactly a week later on the shores of Lake Ontario. Chiefs QB Trent Green threw three interceptions, while his Buffalo counterpart, J.P. Losman, played the last great game of his life: 9-of-16 for 137 yards, two TDs and no interceptions. (For Losman, that qualifies as a great game.) Like the Chargers, the Chiefs probably have to win out against three playoff contenders (Giants, Chargers and Bengals) for a shot at the postseason. Also not bloody likely.

Miami. Browns 22, Dolphins 0 (Week 11). The Dolphins make the list primarily because they are responsible for the Broncos and Chargers being on it. Had it not been for the disastrous trip to Cleveland, Miami would be 7-6 and would have a very real shot at playing New England for the division crown in the season's final week. Instead, they're 6-7 and on the brink of mathematical elimination. Yes, the Dolphins lost to both the Bills and the Jets early in the season, but that was before Miami had put its act together. The Browns game, however, was the nail in the season's coffin.

NFC TEAMS
I count nine playoff-eligible teams here as well. With a two-game edge on the rest of the conference for home-field advantage, Seattle doesn't have any regrets. And with Tennessee and Green Bay still on their schedule, they probably won't have any in the future, even if they lose to Indy in the next-to-last game. I can name only one other NFC team without a What-a-Shame Game, and that team is, surprisingly, Minnesota. The Vikings are the team that the Colts were accused of being before Manning and Company throttled all comers: They've built an 8-5 record by beating bad-to-horrible teams (Packers and Lions twice each, Browns, Saints, Rams), getting blown out by halfway-decent or all-the-way-decent teams (Bucs, Panthers, Falcons, Bengals, Bears) and eking out a fluke W against a team (Giants) they had no business beating. If there's one team this year that definitely hasn't lost to an inferior opponent, it's the Vikings. Where the other seven NFC teams went wrong:

Chicago. Browns 20, Bears 10 (Week 5). Midway through the fourth quarter, the Bears led this game 10-6. They'd completely stymied the Browns offense, intercepting Trent Dilfer twice and limiting Cleveland to two field goals -- one of which came off a Bears fumble deep in Chicago territory. Then, six minutes from a victory that would move them to 2-2, the Bears found the big, orange self-destruct button and punched it. A weak punt gave the Browns the ball at midfield. Dilfer hit Antonio Bryant for 33 yards, and the Browns were up 13-10. Kyle Orton fumbled on the next possession, Dilfer hit Bryant for 28 yards, and the Browns won 20-10. This would be the last game the Bears would lose for nine weeks, but it remains costly. Seattle has two conference losses; Chicago, only one. If the Bears had beaten Cleveland, they'd be 10-3 and only a game down in the race for home field.

Tampa Bay. Jets 14, Buccaneers 12 (Week 5) and 49ers 15, Buccaneers 10 (Week 8). Be glad you're not Jon Gruden's dog, because the Bucs are the only playoff contender with two of these inexplicable, inexcusable losses. In the Jets game, they lost to a team that had run through three quarterbacks in two weeks and had just hauled 54-year-old Vinny Testaverde up from the bottom of the barrel, where he'd been watching football on his couch since the start of the season. The Bucs could manage only four field goals against the Jets; it wasn't enough to win. Three weeks later, five field goals would be enough to win. Unfortunately for the boys in pewter, the team that kicked those five wonderful figgies was the dreadful 49ers. Because the Bucs (9-2 in all other games) couldn't beat the Jets and Niners (3-21 in all other games), Tampa has no shot at home field and only a very slim chance at a first-round bye.

Carolina. Saints 23, Panthers 20 (Week 1). Everything said about the Broncos above applies to the Panthers here. There isn't enough ink, pencil lead or blood in the world to print all the words written about how the Saints rolled into this game high on emotion. That's true, but it's equally true that Carolina came out flat, played flat, and staggered back into the locker room flat. They could have had the inside track for a first-round bye, even with their ugly loss to Tampa last week, but coulda don't pay the gas bill in the long, cold winter. The Panthers lost an early game to the Dolphins, too, but I don't have the heart to go to that well a third time.

New York. Vikings 24, Giants 21 (Week 10). Forget the overtime debacle in Seattle: Tough luck on the road in a hard-fought game between two contenders is not the formula for a What-a-Shame Game. Disgraceful play at home against a 2-5 team that manages only 95 yards of offense in the first 59 minutes of the game? Yup, that's the formula. Eli Manning nearly pulled this game out with one of those fourth-quarter comebacks for which he's already gaining a reputation. But there's a difference between engineering a late scoring drive to close out a seesaw slugfest -- the kind of drives that made Elway and Brady famous -- and leading a desperate comeback made necessary by the four interceptions you threw earlier in the game. Had the Giants won this one, they'd be in position to claim a first-round bye.

Atlanta. Packers 33, Falcons 25 (Week 10). Oh, we remember this one, don't we? After a week in which Atlanta fans took over the Internet demanding that more "props" be bestowed upon their team, the 6-2 Falcons spotted the 1-7 Packers a 14-point first-quarter lead, fumbled the ball six times, committed eight penalties and turned a scrub named Samkon Gado into a superstar. And they did it all at home! The Falcons are fading; this could be the game that KOs them for '05.

Dallas. Raiders 19, Cowboys 16 (Week 4). It's easy to forget this one. While the bulk of the attention in the NFC East was focused on the Giants blowing out the Rams on Eli Manning's four TDs, the Redskins dumping the Seahawks in OT, and the Eagles making a frantic comeback against the Chiefs, the Cowboys were in the Bay Area losing this tiresome battle of field goals. What happens in Oakland stays in Oakland! Except when it makes the difference between playing for the division title and playing for a wildcard bid.

Washington. Raiders 16, Redskins 13 (Week 11). The Redskins are 7-2 against the NFC and 0-4 against the AFC. The way they played against the excellent Broncos, the fine Chiefs and the good Chargers, they deserved to win, but they didn't. The way they played against the torpid Raiders, they deserved to lose, and they did. If Washington could have beaten just one of the AFC West teams, they'd be 8-5 and have a leg up on the rest of the 8-5 teams based on a better conference record. Instead they're 7-6 and talking nonsense about winning their last three against the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles. Even if they do, it probably won't be enough.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Week 14 recap

On the topsy-turviest weekend of the year, I finished 13-3 in the picks, which our scale defines as a remarkable showing. (For the past three weeks, I'm 40-8.) The three games I missed were all consensus upsets. But I nailed both of the day's big undecideds: Pittsburgh over Chicago and Dallas over K.C. (Thank you, Chiefs field-goal unit!), as well as the toss-up Redskins-Cardinals game.

One of the best things I saw this weekend was Jay Glazer's report on Fox NFL Sunday about the toll football has taken on Jerome Bettis' body. The piece didn't build Bettis up as some sort of hero; it simply let him describe in his own words the physical pain an NFL career brings -- and the emotional highs that make the pain worth it. Equally impressive, in-studio idiots Howie Long and Terry Bradshaw actually dropped their I'm-With-Stupid routines long enough to relate their own experiences. Video can be seen here.

One of the worst things I saw this weekend was Sports Illustrated writer Peter King's thinly veiled allegation that the Houston Texans are throwing games:
"I think, if I weren't such a trusting soul, I might start to have some questions about the way Houston is losing these games. Some first draft choice questions."
King is seen here resorting to one of the oldest and cheapest hack tricks in the book: Hey, It's not me saying this. But people out there will be thinking this. I'm just pointing that out. Basically, King is insinuating that Texans kicker Kris Brown missed the game-tying field goal against Tennessee -- possibly taking a huge hit to his career -- so Houston can wrap up the No. 1 pick in the 2006 draft. Gee, are David Carr and Domanick Davis in on the fix, too? I'm sure they'd be totally on board for any strategy that brings Matt Leinart or Reggie Bush to town.

On the same subject, wins by the Jets and Packers cleared the way for the 2-11 San Francisco 49ers and the 1-12 Texans to duke it out for that No. 1 pick in the last game of the season.

What I got right, and what I got wrong:

CORRECT PICKS:
Indianapolis over Jacksonville: Week 14's most closely watched divisional matchup showed us how fine a line it is between confidence and petulance. The Jaguars came into this game not just believing they could win, but expecting they would win. Usually you like to see that in a team. However, near the end of the first half, when it became clear that Jacksonville was not, in fact, winning, the entire team collapsed on itself in the space of a minute and a half. The Jaguars thus go down as the latest team to blow their own feet off with costly penalties in a vain attempt to rough up the Colts. Ask the Patriots, Steelers and Bengals: Indianapolis can be beaten, but they're not going to be intimidated. By anyone.

Cincinnati over Cleveland: Sunday's passer rating for Carson Palmer: 53.4. Sunday's passer rating for Charlie Frye: 78.1. That's not something I expected. Look, anyone can pick the Bengals to beat the Browns, but to make this game a Best Bet took a certain level of confidence -- dare we say swagger? We do! That's because after the Bengals' allegedly torch-passing victory over the Steelers last week, they were all but assured of a trap game. Frankly, it's better for the Bengals to win this one narrowly than in a blowout, because an ugly victory guarantees that they'll be wearing right-size britches the rest of the way. Cincinnati fans should just be happy to see that when the passing game breaks down, the running game can carry the load. Cleveland fans should just be happy that the Browns looked to Frye as their Draft Day sleeper QB rather than Kyle Orton. Talk about dodging a bullet. A bullet overthrown into triple coverage.

Pittsburgh over Chicago: Kyle Orton has seen the quarterback his team wants him to be, and his name is Ben Roethlisberger. The Bears' loss might allow Chicago to move past the perception of Orton as a quarterback who "just wins games" and have a serious discussion over whether to bench him for Rex Grossman. (I'm not saying they should, but it's better to have the discussion in Week 15 than in the playoff bye week.) The Bears won eight straight on a formula of 75% defense, 25% running game. That's remarkable and commendable, but what happens when they run into a team that pounds the ball and doesn't turn it over? They lose 21-9. The question now is whether Orton's one good drive will be enough to keep him at the wheel another week. Speaking of wheels, the Surprisingly Apt and Remarkably Consistent Metaphor of the Week comes from Bears receiver Muhsin Muhammad: "We don't have to reinvent the wheel. We just have to make the wheel spin a little better."
(The Down and Distance '85 Bears vs. '05 Bears Season Tracker has been updated. See latest results here.)

New England over Buffalo: Uh-oh. Here they come again.

Minnesota over St. Louis: The Ryan Fitzpatrick Story was nice while it lasted, wasn't it? Though Harvard grads can probably do these calculations in their heads, here's a chart the rest of us can clip and save. It shows us the passer rating for a quarterback who goes 26-of-45 for 235 yards, no touchdowns and ...
... 0 interceptions71.9
... 1 interception62.7
... 2 interceptions53.4
... 3 interceptions44.2
... 4 interceptions34.9
... 5 interceptions32.4
... 6-19 interceptions32.4
So, although Fitzpatrick threw only five INTs on Sunday, it's as if he threw many, many more.

Tennessee over Houston: If Houston were winning game after game in the final seconds, we'd dub them the Two-Minute Texans or the Carr-diac Kids or something. But instead they're losing game after game in the final seconds to lousy opponents, so we just refer to them as a horrible football team.

Seattle over San Francisco: Playing two games in the span of seven days, the Seahawks outscored their opponents 83-3. The Eagles and 49ers aren't exactly the stiffest competition, but good teams are supposed to blow out bad teams. If you're going to be taken seriously at this stage of the season, you need to be beating teams like San Fran and Philly by six TDs. You can't just barely beat them in overtime ...

New York Giants over Philadelphia: Multiple choice quiz: Question 1. Three times at the end of regulation or in overtime, this Giants player botched a chance to win and handed control of the game to the opponent. a) Jay Feely. b) Eli Manning. Question 2. This Giants player finally had to take charge and win the game in OT. a) Jay Feely. b) Eli Manning. Show your work. Attach an extra sheet of paper if necessary. Essay question. Tiki Barber, who is expected to do just about everything for the Giants, succeeds time after time. Brandon Jacobs, who is expected only to carry the ball in short-yardage situations, fails time after time. List three reasons why Jacobs should continue to get the rock.

Washington over Arizona: Believe me, I'm torn. If there had been a way for both teams to lose, I'd have taken that option. A Washington loss would have pushed the delusional Redskins fans to the edge of surrender, but now we have to endure another week of sad playoff talk. On the other hand, a Cardinals victory could have tamped down the questions that need to be asked about what Dennis Green is doing. With the loss, however, Arizona is 4-9 and headed for a worse record than last year. Green claims to be reconstructing the franchise from the ground up, and he has assembled a nucleus of fine young players. But if he's building toward the future, why is Kurt Warner still the quarterback? Yes, Warner has been putting up great numbers lately, and yes, he's a great guy. But Warner is 34 years old. You bring a guy like that in to do one of two things: to "win now" or to help groom your quarterback of the future. The team isn't winning now (not really Warner's fault, but that's irrelevant), and the Cardinals don't have a quarterback of the future. Josh McCown was the closest thing they had, but Green benched him as soon as Warner arrived.

Denver over Baltimore: Kyle Boller had just as many touchdown passes as Jake Plummer. *Cough*.

Dallas over Kansas City: Pretend you're a Cowboys defensive back. It's late in the game, and the opposing offense needs a touchdown. A field goal won't do anything. Suddenly there's a receiver streaking past you. What are the chances he's a decoy? About the same in Week 14 as they were in Week 2.

Green Bay over Detroit: Sunday was the sixth time this year I had picked the Packers to win, but only the second time they rewarded me for it. Well, not really rewarded. More like, they just managed to avoid getting in the way of another Lions display of sloppy, stupid football. The highlight of the game wasn't Samkon Gado's 64-yard touchdown run; it was his attempt at a Lambeau Leap. Exhausted by the run, Gado could barely get his head above the end-zone wall, and the fans held him up by his shoulder pads and slapped him on the helmet. And hey, No. 4: Those long bombs you keep throwing? Either you can't throw them accurately anymore or your receivers can't run the routes properly anymore. So stop.

Atlanta over New Orleans: The Falcons had to have this one. If they can win out, they'll make the playoffs. But they won't, so they won't, I'm afraid. Too many mines in that field.

INCORRECT PICKS:
Carolina over Tampa Bay: The Panthers whipped the Buccaneers in Tampa earlier in the season, so this one should have been a Carolina blowout, right? You'd think. There's a reason why I don't watch many NFC South games. After the loss at Chicago, the shaky win at Buffalo and last week's manhandling of the Falcons, I expected the Panthers to come out this week determined to seize control of their division and their destiny. This was supposed to be a statement game, but that statement now appears to have been: WE WILL NOT GO VERY FAR IN THE PLAYOFFS.

Oakland over New York Jets: I turned on this game at the start of the second half, with the Jets ahead 6-3. Both teams were milling about on the field, and the stands were at least half-empty. Then CBS lost its feed when a rat chewed through a power cable or something, and the audience was temporarily switched over to Cleveland-Cincinnati. CBS got everything fixed and switched us back in time to see Sebastian Janikowski miss a short field goal. That's when I decided I'd had my fill of the Jets and the Raiders. For the rest of the season.

San Diego over Miami: Ah, after a five-week delay, I can finally say it: "At some point you have to stop pointing to your tough schedule and go out and win football games." What's so very disheartening is that this was the only "easy" (a relative term, of course) game left on the Chargers' schedule. We could all envision San Diego losing to Indianapolis, Kansas City or Denver, but everyone knew that unless they wanted to spend January playing Tiddly Winks at home, they couldn't afford to lose to a 5-7 team in their own stadium.

THIS WEEK: 13-3
SEASON: 145-63
(69.7%)



POW-R-'ANKINGS FOR WEEK 14
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet, Ethernet, ARPANET, Aqua Net or any other -net. Honed by master mathematicians, lauded by football enthusiasts, the formula behind them predicted 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners, and 14 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the POW-R-'ANKINGS system. Get it? I mean, spaceships go to the moon with wider error margins than this. If Galileo or Copernicus had had science like this on his side, he'd have been Pimp No. 1 for all time. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: W14 = This week's ranking. W13 = Last week's ranking. PWR = POW-R centigrade score)
W14W13TEAMPWRW14W13TEAMPWR
11 Colts 100.001716Packers 48.13
22 Seahwaks 87.981818 Dolphins 42.84
34 Chargers 76.121922 Vikings 37.61
46 Giants 72.972019 Browns 37.32
53 Bears 72.372121 Rams 33.62
65 Panthers 71.552220 Raiders 32.96
77 Broncos 71.162323 Eagles 32.80
88 Bengals 69.042424 Cardinals31.71
911Steelers 64.272525 Lions 31.70
1013Falcons 62.692626 Titans 29.58
1110Cowboys 61.942727 Bills 21.21
12 9Jaguars 61.012828 Ravens 21.07
1314Bucs 59.512930 Jets 14.96
1412Chiefs 57.433029 Saints 13.60
1515Redskins51.463132 Texans 6.94
1617Patriots49.333231 49ers 0.00

Teams eliminated this week* from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Chiefs, Chargers. Teams previously eliminated: Texans, Titans, Packers, Saints, 49ers, Jets, Bills, Ravens, Browns, Vikings, Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders, Lions, Eagles, Rams, Redskins, Steelers, Cowboys, Falcons.
*Though the Patriots have posted five losses, they've proved they can win the Super Bowl with an 11-5 record. So they get a pass for now.