Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Preseason Super Bowl data dump!

As the 2005 NFL season gets underway, fans of every team have hope. Or so they say. This could be the year your boys will win it all. Or so you say. What many don't realize is that, buried in the regular season, there are clues as to who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy come February. See, it's not who you beat, not how you win. No, it's how you lose.

BIGGEST REGULAR SEASON LOSSES
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER

PTS.SB CHAMP-TO-BELOST TOSCOREWEEK
321994 49ersEagles40-85
312003 PatriotsBills31-01
311976 RaidersPatriots48-174
281979 SteelersChargers35-712
241992 CowboysEagles31-75
241979 SteelersBengals34-107
221988 49ersRams38-1616
202001 PatriotsDolphins30-204
201970 ColtsChiefs44-242
Conclusion: Anyone can have a really bad game. Or in the case of the 1979 Steelers, two really bad games. It's best to get them out of your system early. Unless you're the 1988 49ers and you go into the last week of the season battling for a playoff spot and then get blown out the door by one of the very teams you're battling. In that case, you're just lucky the entire league is playing aimless ball, perhaps still logy from the strike.

FEWEST POINTS IN A REGULAR SEASON GAME
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER

PTS.SB CHAMP-TO-BELOST TOSCOREWEEK
02003 PatriotsBills31-01
01974 SteelersRaiders17-03
32001 PatriotsJets10-32
32000 RavensRedskins10-37
31990 Giants49ers7-313
31988 49ersRaiders9-311
31975 SteelersRams10-314
31973 DolphinsColts16-313
Conclusions: If you're going to go and get shut out, do it early in the season. If all you can muster is a field goal, the other guys can't score more than one touchdown. You're going to need a great defense if your kicker is your offense's fantasy player of the year. (The Ravens scored 6 points or less in four games in 2000 and lost all four.) Cut Lawyer Milloy at the start of camp, not the end. Or cut him in June.

What happens when teams face each other in the regular season and then in the Super Bowl? Well ...

REGULAR SEASON LOSSES AVENGED IN SUPER BOWL
SEASONSB CHAMP-TO-BEOPPONENTRS RESULTWEEKSB RESULT
2001PatriotsRams24-17, STL1020-17, NE
1999RamsTitans24-21, TEN823-16, STL
1993CowboysBills13-10, BUF230-13, DAL
1990GiantsBills17-13, BUF1520-19, NYG
1983RaidersRedskins37-35, WSH538-9, LA
1980RaidersEagles10-7, PHI1227-10, OAK
TEAMS BEATING SAME FOE IN REGULAR SEASON, SUPER BOWL
SEASONSB CHAMP-TO-BEOPPONENTRS RESULTWEEKSB RESULT
199449ersChargers19-16, SF1549-26, SF
1986GiantsBroncos19-16, NYG1239-20, NYG
1985BearsPatriots20-7, CHI246-10, CHI
198149ersBengals21-3, SF1426-21, SF
Conclusion: Hey man, the statistics don't lie. If you think your team might wind up playing a given week's opponent again in the Super Bowl, you're 50% better off losing that regular season game than winning it. Preferably by 3 points or so. So keep this in mind when, say, New England plays Atlanta, or when Minnesota plays Pittsburgh, or when Philadelphia plays ... I don't know, San Diego? This isn't me talking here, it's history.

TEAMS NEVER TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
PanthersBuccaneersRavens
TexansJaguars
Conclusion: You lose to any of these teams, start looking forward to next year.

TEAMS TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
TWICE IN THE REGULAR SEASON

SEASONTEAMSB CHAMP-TO-BERS SCORES
2002SaintsBuccaneers26-20, 23-20
1995RedskinsCowboys27-23, 24-17
1983SeahawksRaiders38-36, 34-21
Conclusion: Hm. I guess it's a good sign if you lose twice to the 2002 Saints, '95 Redskins or '83 Seahawks. What really jumps out at me is that in the seven NFL seasons that I've been living in Washington, the Redskins have gone 1-13 against the Cowboys. They can't beat Dallas even when the Cowboys are dreadful. But in 1995, the 6-10 -- 6-10! -- Redskins beat Dallas twice. Dallas lost four games that year: to the Eagles (10-6, No. 1 Wild Card), to the 49ers (11-5, NFC West champs) and twice to the Redskins. Heath Shuler started one of those games. There's nothing to be learned from this statistic. Science is about recognizing the limits of your data.

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