Week 12: Meet our new draft pick

What a weekend. First I hit the Turkey Day Hat Trick by picking all three Thanksgiving Day games correctly. Then this little guy made an appearance at 4:46 p.m. on Friday:



When all was said and done, I was 11-5 in the picks for Week 12. I could have gone 14-2 if only the 49ers could finish and Eli Manning and Rex Grossman would quit trying to outdo each other in regressing the farthest the fastest.

CORRECT PICKS
Miami 27, Detroit 10: Deacon Jones once memorably told Peter Brady that a real man can both play tackle football and sing in the glee club, and that a love of making music doesn't mean you're a pussy. Peter Brady lived that advice, and now he's a buff motherfucker peddling workout scams on TV. Miami Dolphins quarterback Joey Harrington also learned this lesson, for better or worse. You know who hasn't learned it? The Detroit Lions. Detroit, a franchise always in search of newer and deeper lows, reached a new one during Week 12 -- a display of childishness, classlessness and scumminess that was all the more appalling because it came on Thanksgiving Day, before a nationally televised game. The Lions, who host (and lose) a Thanksgiving game every fall, this year were facing the Harrington-led Dolphins. There was no question that Harrington was going to be booed by the Detroit fans. Harrington, whom Detroit made the No. 3 overall pick in the 2002 draft, spent four years with the Lions and wound up saddled with a ridiculously outsized portion of the blame for the culture of losing that the franchise has wallowed in for decades. Hell, Harrington himself expected Lions fans to give him an earful. What he probably didn't expect was that the Ford Field gameday operations staff would bend over backwards to try to mock and humiliate him. Actually, maybe he did expect it. He'd spent enough time with the Lions to know what a cesspool this organization is. To sum up what happened: Before each game, a team decides whether it wants its offense or defense introduced over the PA system. The Dolphins chose to introduce their defense. The Detroit PA crew went ahead and introduced the Miami defense ... and Joey Harrington. Cue the boos. Worse, the music chosen for the introductions was Piano Man, mocking Harrington for his once-featured-on-MNF piano playing. Some teams are poorly run. Some teams are poorly managed. Some teams are awful on the field. But the rat-fuck operation in Detroit tops them all. Is it any wonder that the Lions are the worst team in the league? Is it any wonder that no matter who plays quarterback for the Lions, the result is always the same? And is it any wonder that Matt Millen, the Lions' craven, shitty general manager, the man who makes all the decisions, hires the coaches, picks the players, sets the tone for the franchise and yet blames everyone but himself for repeated failure, is a Ford employee?

Dallas 38, Tampa Bay 10: Romo, shlomo. The best news out of Dallas this week is that Bill Parcells finally gave Mike Vanderjagt the boot. And unlike Vanderjagt, Parcells made solid contact. Thus Vanderjagt completes the quickest transition from unflappable-top-drawer kicker to ineffective-head-case kicker since Martin Grammatica. And who did the Cowboys sign to replace Vandy? Martin Grammatica.

Kansas City 19, Denver 10: If there's one thing common to players and coaches around the league, it's the way they bitch about "the media" drumming up controversies based on unsourced reports. So if you're Mike Shanahan and the subject is your (at the time speculative) pending quarterback change, what do you do when the "media" in question is the league-owned and -operated NFL Network?

New Orleans 31, Atlanta 13: Oh, and fuck you, too ya tool.

Cincinnati 30, Cleveland 0: And here I'd given up on the Bengals.

Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 0: I've never really liked the Ravens. Fortunately, Joey Porter got me to dislike the Steelers even more.

Minnesota 31, Arizona 26: A game against the Cardinals is just what it takes to make Brad Johnson feel under 50 again. On the other side, Matt Leinart had thrown for over 400 yards, and yet in the 59th minute, all Arizona had on the board was two Neil Rackers field goals, a freak special teams TD and a freak defensive TD. The Cards are back, baby!

N.Y. Jets 26, Houston 11: I guess I can understand why Texas and cities in the AFC East got this stinker, but what did the Green Bay market do to deserve it?

San Diego 21, Oakland 14: I'm not saying the Raiders are better than teams think they are. I'm saying the Raiders aren't as bad as teams think they are. There's a difference, and it nearly bit the Chargers in the ass.

Indianapolis 45, Philadelphia 21: If Edgerrin James had a little Joseph Addai doll, he'd be sticking pins in it. And bet you didn't know the Eagles defense was riding on Donovan McNabb's knee, too, did you?

Seattle 34, Green Bay 24: Tell me again, what's the value of having Jerramy Stevens on your team? Look, no one expects tight ends to make circus catches or outrun corners in the open field. But they do expect that when a tight end gets open and his quarterback puts the ball right in his hands, he will catch it. Further, when he catches the ball, he will hold onto it when hit by a defender. This is, after all, tackle football. Yet Monday night, as always, Stevens dropped one perfect or near-perfect pass after another. On at least two occasions he caught the ball and tucked it away, only to drop it on contact. When he finally did hold onto a couple passes, first for a 2-point conversion and later for Seattle's clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter, he strutted and pounded his chest like the overvalued clown he was exposed as in the Super Bowl.

INCORRECT PICKS
Washington 20, Carolina 17: You know, even when the Redskins manage to claim a decent victory over a respectable (though directionless) team like the Panthers, all I can think of is how sad the situation is. Washington's defense played solidly, and Jason Campbell and Ladell Betts sort of looked like they knew what they were doing back there. Given a little time and a few tweaks, the Redskins could have the beginnings of something. But they won't get any time and there's no way they'll have only a few tweaks. That's because the Redskins are 4-7, which means they won't be going to the playoffs. Which means at the end of the regular season, this roster will be disassembled, again, and anyone who emerged this year as a solid role player with a promising future will be cut loose in favor of a free agent with more name than talent. Then again, the Skins did that last year, too, even though they made the playoffs. See? Sad.

St. Louis 20, San Francisco 17: If NFL games were 59 minutes long, I'd have gotten this one right. That's true often, it seems. We shouldn't get too excited about the 49ers just yet, but they're beating bad teams and playing mediocre ones close. That's the key to an 8-8 record. Considering the way San Francisco has played this century, this is good news.

Buffalo 27, Jacksonville 24: Does anyone care about the Jaguars anymore? One week after dominating the Giants, they roll over for the sorry Bills.

Tennessee 24, N.Y. Giants 21: You can call this an upset if you like, but Tennessee is capable of beating any team in the league -- or losing to any team by three touchdowns. Just like the Giants are capable of losing to any team in the league -- or beating any team by three touchdowns. (On Sunday, the Giants managed to do both.) I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who realizes that Mathias Kiwanuka let Vince Young escape what would have been the game-clinching sack because he was afraid the referee would flag him for roughing the passer. That makes at least two games this year (Bucs-Bengals being the other) in which the outcome hinged on the officials' increasingly insane interpretation of rules intended to protect owners' investment in their quarterbacks. One of the dullest saws in pro football commentary is the complaint that "they coddle QBs so much they should just wear skirts out there," or somesuch. But this is just getting ridiculous. All that said, considering that the Giants went into the fourth quarter up 21-0, the game should never have come down to that fourth-down play. Question: Is there any quarterback who is unraveling even remotely as quickly as Eli Manning?

New England 17, Chicago 13:Answer: Yes, Rex Grossman!

THIS WEEK: 11-5
SEASON: 107-69 (60.8%)
(2005 through Week 10: 118-58)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 12
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W12 = This week's ranking. W11 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W12	W11	TEAM	POW		W12	W11	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	18	Vikings	39.47
2	2	Patriots	85.86		18	14	Steelers	38.57
3	5	Ravens	83.23		19	23	Jets	34.30
4	3	Chargers	80.62		20	20	Rams	33.17
5	6	Cowboys	77.24		21	17	Falcons	31.63
6	4	Jaguars	70.88		22	22	Bills	30.62
7	9	Colts	65.44		23	25	Redskins	25.68
8	13	Bengals	56.67		24	24	Lions	19.41
9	8	Broncos	56.21		25	26	Packers	19.17
10	12	Saints	53.79		26	28	Titans	18.64
11	7	Eagles	51.87		27	21	Browns	17.45
12	T10	Chiefs	51.86		28	29	Cardinals	16.82
13	T10	Giants	47.52		29	30	49ers	15.74
14	19	Dolphins	42.90		30	27	Texans	14.58
15	15	Panthers	42.88		31	32	Raiders	4.86
16	16	Seahawks	41.35		32	31	Bucs	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Jaguars, Giants, Panthers. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons.

Week 11? These go to 11

Still waiting for our little one. Four days overdue now. He's gonna have some explaining to do.

CORRECT PICKS
New England 35, Green Bay 0: Another man's pain isn't really funny, but the circumstances can be. Filling in for dented iron man Brett Favre, who has started 251 straight games, Aaron Rodgers broke his foot after 32 whole minutes and is out for the season. Hey, that indignity is considerably more amusing than the one visited on the Packer defense.

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20: Ben Roethlisberger discovers that when you lead your team to a stirring comeback victory over a (vastly inferior) historic division rival, people will let slide the fact that you were the one responsible for digging the hole so deep in the first place. Who said he didn't have anything to learn from Eli Manning?

Tampa Bay 20, Washington 17: The worst possible thing that could have happened to the Redskins on Sunday would have been for them to win the first game of the Jason Campbell era. Instead, the loss to the walking-dead Buccaneers might -- I emphasize might -- signal to the front office that while quarterback play has been a problem this season, it hasn't been the problem. What's been the problem this season? The front office! Just like every season.

Carolina 15, St. Louis 0: The Panthers outgained the hapless Rams 411 yards to 111 and controlled the ball nearly twice as long, yet still won by only 15-0. This is why no one fears a kitty-cat with teal fur.

Kansas City 17, Oakland 13: I know it was just Trent Green's first game back, and the Chiefs wanted to ease him back into things, but you can't expect to make the playoffs out of the stacked AFC West if, when facing the Raiders at home, you play the duckie for all but the last couple minutes.

Miami 24, Minnesota 20: The Joey Harrington-led Dolphins have "won" three consecutive games. The only way that could be more amazing is if Harington had played much of a role in winning them. But as Kyle Orton can tell you, this sure beats working.

Chicago 10, N.Y. Jets 0: Bad Rex. Good win!

Baltimore 24, Atlanta 10: Good Vick. Bad loss!

Arizona 17, Detroit 10: I can understand why the network had to serve Arizona and Michigan this shitburger, but what did Toledo, Ohio, ever do to Fox?

Dallas 21, Indianapolis 14: It's the matchups, people. Were I a Colts fan -- and every night I thank the big commissioner in the sky that I am not -- I'd be less concerned about a 7-point loss to Dallas on the road than I would about 1-point victories over Tennessee and Buffalo at home. The consensus appears to be that the Colts needed this loss as much as the Cowboys needed this win. Like it'll matter.

INCORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati 31, New Orleans 16: It's never a good sign when a quarterback throws for 510 yards, especially when 145 of them come on drives that end in interceptions: two in the end zone, and one brought back for a touchdown.

Tennessee 31, Philadelphia 13: All the attention paid to the sad injury to Donovan McNabb obscures the sad reality that the Eagles were well on their way to losing this game before No. 5's knee went pop. The Dolphins, Colts, Redskins and Ravens have already learned this year that you look past the Titans at your own peril. Combine the Eagles' similar lack of focus with their now-standard operating procedure of spotting an inferior opponent the lead, and it'll be another cold, idle January at the Linc. It seems the window of opportunity has finally slammed shut on the Eagles' blunt (5 fumbles) fingers.

Buffalo 24, Houston 21: What does J.P. Losman have in common with Michael Vick? Both were first-round picks. Both spend significant chunks of the season bobbing around in the toilet, then surface from time to time with a solid game. That's about it, really. Sunday was Losman's turn to play reasonably well. He threw three touchdowns, four if you count the interception brought back for what was nearly the TD that cost the Bills the game.

San Francisco 20, Seattle 14: Though Shaun Alexander is back, the Seahawks still--OH MY GOD. The 49ers have won three straight and are now one game behind Seattle in the NFC West.

San Diego 35, Denver 27: If the Chargers can beat the Broncos in Denver, with their two steroidal freaks sitting out, then the AFC West is San Diego's to lose. Speaking of losing games or starting jobs ... I know I can't put all the blame for the Broncos' choke act on Jake Plummer's slumped shoulders, but the guy is a total wreck back there.

Jacksonville 26, N.Y. Giants 10: It was clear going in that the holey Giants defense was going to have some problems with the Jaguars offense. And sure enough, David Garrard on Monday night moved Byron Leftwich a bit closer to the starting job in Minnesota for the 2007 season (mark my words). What I foolishly assumed, however, was that New York's mostly healthy offense, with all its high-performance parts, would keep this game close enough to pull out in the end. The most dangerous part of any vehicle, of course, is the nut behind the wheel, and Eli Manning was by turns too tight, too loose and just not there at all. Your typical analyst watches a performance like Manning's against Jacksonville and declares that Eli looked as if he didn't care that he was killing his team. I can't read minds. All I'll say is that it looked as if Eli didn't notice that he was killing his team, at least until it was too late. And that may be the essential difference between the Manning boys: Peyton can throw three touchdown passes and still won't appear particularly happy. Eli can throw three interceptions brought back for touchdowns and still won't appear particularly upset.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 96-64 (60.0%)
(2005 through Week 10: 105-55)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 11
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W11 = This week's ranking. W10 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W11	W10	TEAM	POW		W11	W10	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	15	Falcons	32.80
2	3	Patriots	82.19		18	18	Vikings	32.03
3	2	Chargers	75.69		19	20	Dolphins	30.92
4	4	Jaguars	70.99		20	19	Rams	26.75
5	5	Ravens	69.56		21	23	Browns	23.26
6	6	Cowboys	66.14		22	25	Bills	23.13
7	7	Eagles	56.59		23	21	Jets	23.11
8	8	Broncos	56.54		24	24	Lions	19.17
9	9	Colts	55.66		25	26	Redskins	18.58
T10	12	Chiefs	44.23		26	22	Packers	15.22
T10	10	Giants	44.23		27	27	Texans	13.50
12	11	Saints	44.06		28	30	Titans	10.78
13	14	Bengals	43.03		29	28	Cardinals	10.73
14	13	Steelers	42.51		30	29	49ers	10.28
15	17	Panthers	39.89		31	32	Bucs	2.46
16	16	Seahawks	32.81		32	31	Raiders	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Jets, Eagles, Falcons. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams.

Week 10: Everyone's a loser

Well, now this is strange. In your typical week this season, I manage to predict all the gimme games correctly and whiff on the difficult matchups. In Week 10, however, I got most of the gimme games wrong -- as did nearly everyone else -- but was perfect on the tough matchups. I have no idea what I'm doing anymore. Wait, yes I do: At one point I had lost or was behind in nine of the 10 early games, and I actually started rooting for my picks to lose. From that point on, I was unbeatable. Next week I start charging $100 to root against your favorite team.

We're still waiting for our baby boy to show up, so let's make this quick.

CORRECT PICKS
San Diego 49, Cincinnati 41: First thirty minutes: Bengals 28, Chargers 7. Final thirty minutes: Chargers 42, Bengals 13. Can't anybody finish?

Baltimore 27, Tennessee 26: First twenty minutes: Titans 26, Ravens 7. Final forty minutes: Ravens 20, Titans 0. Can't anybody finish?

Philadelphia 27, Washington 3: Hey, someone finished! The Redskins learned the hard way, yet again, that when you "find a way to win" that doesn't involve outplaying the other team -- as they did last week against the Cowboys -- it's indicative of exactly nothing. The locals have been howling for the Jason Campbell era to begin but, really, would it make any sort of difference? Probably not. Hey, Campbell's starting next week!

Indianapolis 17, Buffalo 16: The Colts are going to need shovels if they continue playing down to the level of some of these opponents, but "it is what it is." For the second straight year, Indy is 9-0. But while in 2005 they won those games by an average of 14 points, this year they're winning by an average of 7 (take out the Texans game, and it's down to 5). Hell, even the stiffs on the '72 Dolphins won by 15 a game.

Denver 17, Oakland 13: I've never seen a good game that ended 17-13 or 27-10. This was no exception. Denver was supposed to win, but God, not like this.

Dallas 27, Arizona 10: This week's least surprising result.

Seattle 24, St. Louis 22: Hoo-boy. Four straight losses for the Rams. That'll learn me to say that St. Louis could take back the division.

Pittsburgh 38, New Orleans 31: The Saints are definitely for real, and they'll be playing in January as a result. The Steelers are definitely sloppy and unfocused, and they'll be home in January as a result. But in this game, a close match that went back and forth all afternoon, the difference was the Saints making the kinds of mistakes (hold onto the ball!) that have killed the Steelers all year. I picked the Steelers to win, but not like that.

Chicago 38, N.Y. Giants 20: Forget the 108-yard missed-FG return by the Bears' Devin Hester. This game was already over by then. In ended late in the first half, in Chicago territory. The Giants had the Bears backed up, 3rd-and-22 from their own 28. New York was this close to staking its claim as the team to beat in the NFC. Then Thomas Jones, just trying to gain a little more room for a punt, gains 26 yards. Big Blue goes Big Brown all down its leg, and the momentum moves to Chicago.

Carolina 24, Tampa Bay 10: Well, I should think so.

INCORRECT PICKS
Houston 13, Jacksonville 10: David Garrard: All he does is win! As much as the Texans are capable of owning anyone, they own the Jaguars. In five years in the league, Houston has swept a season series three times; twice, it was against the Jaguars. They've shut out an opponent just once: the Jaguars. They've won a game by 20 points just twice: both times, against the Jaguars. They're 6-4 against Jacksonville, 15-48 against the rest of the league. The Texans stink, and the Jaguars are their leedle beaches.

San Francisco 19, Detroit 13: Taking nothing away from the 49ers, who are clearly improving -- after all, in the past couple years, they couldn't even be counted on to beat bad teams -- but who in Detroit thought that Jon Kitna was going to be the answer? What was the question? Forget I asked.

N.Y. Jets 17, New England 14
Miami 13, Kansas City 10
So which is more surprising: the Dolphins' two-game winning streak, considering their level of play in the first half of the season, or the Patriots' two-game losing streak, considering they hadn't dropped consecutive games since 2002? Well, the Pats' losses were to rivals, both recent (Colts) and traditional (Jets), and you just never know what's gonna happen in rivalry games. The Dolphins, meanwhile, beat the Bears and the Chiefs. Despite what happened in 1985, before any of us were even born, there is no Dolphins-Bears rivalry. Sorry. Maybe Miami caught Chicago sleeping. It happens. But you'd think that the Dolphins' surprising win would have given the Chiefs a heads-up, but with a Herm Edwards-coached team, you never know what you're going to get. Moving on, the idea of Joey Harrington winning two straight is at least as surprising as Tom Brady losing two straight. So in the final analysis, I guess I'll go with the Dolphins' streak as the more surprising.

Cleveland 17, Atlanta 13: Here's a two-game streak that isn't terribly surprising: consecutive putrid performances from Michael Vick. On Sunday, he was 16-of-40 for 197 yards, 1 TD and two interceptions. Plus, he fumbled the ball away with the game on the line without even being touched. Vick had two good games in a row before tanking vs. Detroit and Cleveland, so maybe that's it for the year.

Green Bay 23, Minnesota 17: I think this is three straight Vikings-Packers games that I've blown.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 86-58 (59.7%)
(2005 through Week 10: 94-50)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 10
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W10 = This week's ranking. WK9 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W10	WK9	TEAM	POW		W10	WK9	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	21	Panthers	36.08
2	2	Chargers	80.50		18	16	Vikings	36.06
3	3	Patriots	73.31		19	18	Rams	34.72
4	5	Jaguars	69.55		20	20	Dolphins	30.93
5	4	Ravens	68.97		21	22	Jets	29.71
6	7	Cowboys	68.54		22	23	Packers	29.49
7	10	Eagles	68.17		23	25	Browns	26.14
8	6	Broncos	67.86		24	24	Lions	23.64
9	9	Colts	62.17		25	26	Bills	22.64
10	8	Giants	53.69		26	19	Redskins	20.96
11	11	Saints	52.83		27	32	Texans	14.78
12	12	Chiefs	45.93		28	27	Cardinals	9.03
13	15	Steelers	44.36		29	29	49ers	8.99
14	13	Bengals	41.15		30	28	Titans	3.88
15	14	Falcons	41.08		31	31	Raiders	1.41
16	17	Seahawks	37.61		32	30	Bucs	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Bengals, Vikings, Rams. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers.

Week 9, PDQ

Another week, another detestable 6-8 record. You know, just once it'd be nice for NFC teams to aspire to something besides an 8-8 record. My son is due any day now, so we'll keep this short.

CORRECT PICKS
Baltimore 26, Cincinnati 20: The CBS microphones caught one of the head coaches in a profanity-laced tirade (1 "god-damned," 1 "fucking"). The crazy thing is, it wasn't even Marvin Lewis.

Jacksonville 37, Tennessee 7: After the Jaguars beat Houston next week, it's going to be next to impossible for Jack Del Rio to put Byron Leftwich back in. I'm not saying he shouldn't.

New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 14: Every week I'm going to remind Jimmy Johnson that after seeing Bruce Gradkowski play all of one half, against the Saints in Week 4, he said Gradkowski may have taken Chris Simms' starting job for good.

N.Y. Giants 14, Houston 10: I can't decide which I liked better: Total ass Jeremy Shockey having his head all but caved in at the goal line, or total ass Jeremy Shockey dropping yet another sure TD catch as a result.

San Diego 32, Cleveland 25: It shouldn't be so damned hard for as good a team as the Chargers to put away as sorry a team as the Browns. Unless the Chargers aren't so good or the Browns aren't so sorry, or a sliding scale of the two.

Seattle 16, Oakland 0: Oakland gives up nine sacks, Randy Moss drops everything thrown his way, the Raiders' only noteworthy play was a knee to the balls, and the Seahawks only win 16-0? I've just got a bad feeling about this.

CORRECT PICKS
Miami 31, Chicago 13: The come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals proves that even when they don't play their best, even when they turn the ball over six times, the Bears still find a way to win. They're gonna go undefeated!

Kansas City 31, St. Louis 17: The Chiefs are always tough to beat in Missouri.

Detroit 30, Atlanta 14: Remember, we were all supposed to think Michael Vick had turned the corner based on his performance against Pittsburgh (now 2-6) and Cincinnati (4-4).

Buffalo 24, Green Bay 10: Remember, we were all supposed to thing the Packers had turned the corner based on their performance against Miami (now 2-6) and Arizona (1-7).

Washington 22, Dallas 19: Bill Parcells gave his whole team mono.

Denver 31, Pittsburgh 20: Ben Roethlisberger keeps throwing those passes up there as if the laws of physics apply differently when you're the defending champion.

San Francisco 9, Minnesota 3: There's disappointment, but not really shame, in getting shut down by the New England defense on a Monday night. There's really nothing but shame in getting shut down by the San Francisco defense on a Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis 27, New England 20: I turned on the radio today only long enough to hear Colin Cowherd, the most superfluous blowhard in all of sports talk, argue that until Peyton Manning wins the Super Bowl, he's always going to say Tom Brady is the better quarterback. What a startlingly original line of thinking. What a cutting-edge argument. What a controversial stance.

THIS WEEK: 6-8
SEASON: 76-52 (59.4%)
(2005 through Week 9: 86-44)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 9
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK9 = This week's ranking. WK8 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

WK9	WK8	TEAM	POW		WK9	WK8	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	19	Seahawks	36.49
2	2	Chargers	85.04		18	17	Rams	35.03
3	3	Patriots	76.90		19	22	Redskins	30.01
4	4	Ravens	72.57		20	24	Dolphins	29.09
5	9	Jaguars	72.32		21	20	Panthers	28.98
6	6	Broncos	67.79		22	21	Jets	27.98
7	5	Cowboys	63.79		23	18	Packers	26.31
8	7	Giants	63.13		24	25	Lions	25.24
9	8	Colts	62.80		25	23	Browns	23.40
10	10	Eagles	59.89		26	28	Bills	21.81
11	11	Saints	57.50		27	26	Cardinals	14.24
12	16	Chiefs	47.38		28	29	Titans	12.66
13	13	Bengals	44.57		29	32	49ers	5.29
14	12	Falcons	42.91		30	31	Bucs	4.01
15	14	Steelers	38.85		31	30	Raiders	0.65
16	15	Vikings	36.49		32	27	Texans	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Steelers, Packers. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers.

Week 8 in the former East Germany

Remember last week's dismal 6-7 record? No way we can sink lower than that! This week: 6-8. Heh. We'll get into the particulars in a second, but first let's note the most remarkable thing about this weekend's games. At one point Sunday, there were two Iowa State alumni on the field playing quarterback: Sage Rosenfels of the Texans and Seneca Wallace of the Seahawks. The only other schools with two QBs getting real* playing time this weekend: Arizona State, with Jake Plummer (Broncos) and Andrew Walter (Raiders); and Southern California, with Carson Palmer (Bengals) and Matt Leinart (Cardinals). Yes, USC, which has produced three Heisman Trophy winners and two national championships since 2002, had as many QBs on the field as Iowa State, which last year lost the game formerly known as the Galleryfurniture.com Bowl. (*"Real" means Brian Griese's garbage time with the Bears doesnt count.)

Let's do it.

CORRECT PICKS
Green Bay 31, Arizona 14: The Packers are going nowhere in a great green hurry, but at least they're having a little fun humiliating the downtrodden on the way there. Like Romeo Crennel in Cleveland and Brian Billick in Baltimore, Cardinals coach Denny Green scapegoated his offensive coordinator after a recent embarrassing loss. Unlike Crennel and Billick, however, all Green got was this lousy sweat-stained T-shirt and another embarrassing loss. The Cardinals' total collapse against the Bears a couple weeks back is getting more watershed-y all the time.

Chicago 41, San Francisco 10: There's no better cure for the nearly-got-our-asses-kicked-by-Arizona blues than to haul the 49ers into the boys' room and stick their heads in the toilet. And you can always count on the Niners to ratchet up the pathos even further. Last year against the Eagles, the 49ers were down by four touchdowns in the third quarter -- and kicked a field goal. Sunday against the Bears, the 49ers were down by six touchdowns in the fourth quarter -- and kicked a field goal. The only unanswered question is whether 49ers.com will try to slip in a reference to "outscoring opponents in the second half" when it puts together the season recap. I'll be watching.

N.Y. Giants 17, Tampa Bay 3: Every time Jermey Shockey drops a pass, an angel gets his wings.

Kansas City 35, Seattle 28: We're halfway through the season, so it's as good a time as any to quote myself and a bunch of other blogtards: "The Super Bowl losers' curse ends with this year's Seahawks." I'm paraphrasing there, but that's the gist of it. Yeah, Hasselbeck and Alexander are hurt. So what? It's always something with these ... defending conference champions. But forget Seattle. The Kansas City Chiefs -- starring Damon Huard in the role everybody else made famous -- are 4-3 and in as good a position as anyone to claim that sixth playoff spot that know-nothings like me were so willing to award the Jets. No one builds a winner and then destroys it quite like Herm Edwards.

San Diego 38, St. Louis 24: San Diego just keeps improving. So does St. Louis.

New England 31, Minnesota 7:Fifteen rushes, forty-three passes. What is this, the Indianapolis Colts? It took a few weeks for Tom Brady and his receivers to find a rhythm, but now they have one, and it appears to be a bossa nova. The newspapers in the Twin Cities must have been full of stories about the Vikings' new tougher-than-leather defense, because that defense went into the Metrodome on Monday night and topped off their underpants on national TV. (I absolutely love defecating-in-the-pants references! At least one a week!) I've said it many times before: No one reads their own press clippings like the Minnesota Vikings. Trust Bill Belichick to not just identify an opponent's weakness, but identify a weakness that can't be corrected during the game. Who knew the Vikings were helpless against the underneath passing game? Besides him, I mean.

INCORRECT PICKS
Jacksonville 13, Philadephia 6: You don't have to live under a tarp at Alltel Stadium to know what's coming. I call quarterback controversy! With Byron Leftwich under center, the Jaguars have lost to the no-account Redskins and the account-in-default Texans. With David Garrard subbing for an injured Leftwich on Sunday, the Jaguars "dominated" the Eagles, in Philadelphia. Thus Garrard -- say it with me -- "just knows how to win." Hmm. Here's Garrard's line Sunday: 10-of-17 for 87 yards, no TDs, no INTs; 8 rushes for 36 yards. By comparison, here's inveterate loser Donovan McNabb's line from the same game: 18-of-34 for 161 yards, no TDs, no INTs; 5 rushes for 37 yards. If McNabb's receivers had simply done a better jobs of catching the passes he put on their palms, it would be McNabb who just knows how to win. But they dropped those passes, so McNabb doesn't just know how to win. Who does just know how to win? I guess Fred Taylor and, to a lesser extent, Maurice Jones-Drew. I put the word dominate in quotes above because I heard the word used at least a dozen times in relation to Jacksonville's performance against the Eagles. But how dominant can a team be putting up just 13 points? And the Eagles played the Jaguars to a draw for the final 51 minutes of the game. That's dominance? This is not to say Jacksonville didn't deserve to win. For the third game in a row, the Eagles left their very pretty skirts on until the middle of the fourth quarter. That's no way to go through a season.

Tennessee 28, Houston 22: I'm losing the will to live. No, wait, I'm losing the will to care. That's right. Sorry.

Atlanta 29, Cincinnati 27: I'm going to have to apologize to Michael Vick and his fans at some point. Let's see ... The Falcons play the Lions next week and the Browns after that. You can't exactly praise a guy for carving up those turkeys. Ooh, here we go: Nov. 19 against Baltimore. If Vick chews up the Ravens the way he chewed up the Steelers and Bengals, I'll have my fat ass on the bandwagon right next to the driver. Except my son is supposed to be born on or around the 17th, so I might not be able to watch. Sorry, Mike! As for the Bengals? Eh. The aroma of 8-8 is starting to get mighty pungent. That must be what a fluke smells like when you leave it out too long.

Baltimore 35, New Orleans 22: Oh crap. Up to Sunday, Ravens coach Brian Billick had spent eight years pissing away the "offensive genius" reputation he built on the backs of other people. Just when it seemed he had peed himself into a corner with another anemic offense in Baltimore, he cut Jim Fassel's throat and assumed play-calling duty himself. And the Ravens promptly went out and had their highest-scoring game of the year. Does it matter that 14 of the 35 points came from the defense? Does it matter that the Saints' offense outscored the Ravens' offense? Does it matter that the Ravens benefited greatly from Reggie Bush entering the declining phase of his career? (He does everything fast!) No. All that matters is that Billick looks right this week, and if there's one thing that Billick and his smug little smile and his round little sunglasses and his receding little hairline can tell you, it's better to look right than to be right. Right?

Cleveland 20, N.Y. Jets 13: Did Jets tight end Chris Baker catch the tying touchdown on fourth down with a minute left, as Jets fans assert? Was he pushed out of bounds? Did the Jets get screwed by replay rules that say force-outs are judgment calls that can't be reviewed. Oh God, could I care any less? We said last week (in not so many words) that the Jets' path to the playoffs was clearly laid out before them, freshly paved with shit the color of the Cleveland Browns. If you're not man enough to win a gimme against the Browns, you can't be helped.

Oakland 20, Pittsburgh 13: There is nothing -- nothing -- I can say that hasn't already been said about this game. (Which, funny enough, was exactly the same thing we said about Tampa's win over Philadelphia last week and Chicago's over Arizona the week before.) Having demonstrated that they can win the Super Bowl from the sixth seed, the Steelers are now out to prove that they can do it without even making the playoffs.

Indianapolis 34, Denver 31: Whoa, whoa, whoa. Peyton Manning is suddenly clutch? I've got all sorts of papers and media guides and scouting magazines printed on low-grade stock here, and none of it says anything about clutch. The comeback, or whatever it was, was a real ring-a-ding-ding, but I'm less focused on the 34 points the Colts scored against their perennial donkey boys than on the 31 the Broncos were able to hang on their supposed betters. If they'd have just taken the ball out of Jake Plummer's hands completely and just run straight at the Colts, they'd have likely won. Because Indianapolis couldn't stop the run with an electrified fence. Whichever way it sorts itself out, it's starting to look like these boys could meet -- oh God, not again -- in the playoffs. A win's a win, and the Colts will take it, but I do have to wonder about the celestial wisdom of it all. Last year Indy started out 13-0, and as much as they deny it, the fact of their losslessness got inside their collective head and rotted it from the inside out. Maybe it would've been better to lose this one? You know: Get all of Denver puffed up about how "This Is The Year The Broncos Finally Beat The Colts." Then playoff time comes around, and the Broncos are so giddy for another crack at the Colts that they eat their own gun against some other team. The Ravens or someone. Hey, it happened to the Colts last year. It still could happen to the Colts this year. They do play the Patriots, in Foxboro, this weekend.

Dallas 35, Carolina 14: (Remember, Tom Brady didn't win the game in which he replaced Drew Bledsoe, either.) Something funny happened on the way to the Cowboys' implosion. Bill Parcells finally got the cap off the Sambuca and started kissing his charges up one sideline and down the other. This game was sphincter-tight until Carolina achieved the perfect balance of recklessness (long passes thrown by Jake Delhomme) and fecklessness (long passes dropped by Keyshawn Johnson) and churned it into 25 rich, buttery fourth-quarter points for Dallas. I hadn't seen a game turn into a blowout so suddenly since ... well, since the first quarter of the Bears-Niners game.

THIS WEEK: 6-8
SEASON: 70-44 (61.4%)
(2005 through Week 7: 74-42)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 8
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK8 = This week's ranking. WK7 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

WK8	WK7	TEAM	POW		WK8	WK7	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	16	Rams	33.61
2	2	Chargers	75.57		18	22	Packers	25.14
3	4	Patriots	73.78		19	19	Seahawks	23.54
4	5	Ravens	62.99		20	17	Panthers	23.44
5	8	Cowboys	56.77		21	20	Jets	22.59
6	3	Broncos	55.64		22	21	Redskins	21.81
7	11	Giants	52.67		23	T25	Browns	18.58
8	6	Colts	52.51		24	24	Dolphins	12.49
9	12	Jaguars	50.17		25	T25	Lions	12.05
10	7	Eagles	50.06		26	23	Cardinals	10.76
11	9	Saints	43.14		27	29	Texans	9.07
12	13	Falcons	42.60		28	28	Bills	8.05
13	15	Bengals	39.79		29	31	Titans	5.98
14	14	Steelers	39.29		30	32	Raiders	5.06
15	10	Vikings	34.80		31	27	Bucs	4.88
16	18	Chiefs	34.31		32	30	49ers	0.00

Teams eliminated this week* from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills.
*Though the Steelers have posted five losses, they've proved they can win the Super Bowl with an 11-5 record. So they get a pass for now.

Week 7 without honor or humanity

This week's gruesome 6-7 showing in the picks makes perfect sense when you understand that no one in the NFL wants to stand out this year. Last season, the Steelers won a Super Bowl championship by futzing around until every game became a must-win. So now everybody wants to stay on the bubble as long as possible. Thus, I lost three games on last-second field goals, one game on a boneheaded end-zone interception, and two games in which allegedly top-drawer teams rolled over for stiffs. And I also picked Arizona to win. That one's entirely on me.

CORRECT PICKS
Denver 17, Cleveland 7: How good are the Broncos? For the fourth week in a row, exactly 10 points better than the opposition. It's what they call "playing to the level of the opponent." Cleveland does it every week, too, except they lose.

New England 28, Buffalo 6: In Week 1, these two teams played in Foxboro, and the Pats barely eked out a 19-17 win. Now, suddenly the Patriots are 5-1, and the Dick Jauron hire continues to pay Buffalo exactly the kind of dividends you would expect.

Green Bay 32, Miami 24: Like I'm proud of this.

N.Y. Jets 31, Detroit 24: The Jets have already matched their win total from 2005. With the Steelers falling to pieces and the Dolphins DOA, what's to say the J-E-T-S couldn't slide into the No. 6 playoff spot in the AFC? They still have the Browns, Texans, Packers, Bills, Dolphins and Raiders to look forward to, so just beating the crappy teams on the schedule would get them to 10-6. If they can take one from the Vikings, Bears or Patriots, suddenly they'd be 11-5.

Indianapolis 36, Washington 22: Yes, Peyton Manning had a huge game, but before we get too excited, let's notice that in the box score, in the space for the visiting team, it says "Washington." These guys lost to the Titans last week. The Titans! Down and Distance isn't big on "conventional wisdom," but we live in Washington, where everybody else swears by it. And the local conventional wisdom holds that "in the offense, you gotta get the ball to your playmakers." With that in mind, some stats -- TD passes thrown to James Thrash: 1. TD passes thrown to Antwaan Randle El, Brandon Lloyd and Santana Moss combined: 0. It's a red herring, sure, but everyone else in town will be dining on it.

N.Y. Giants 36, Dallas 22: Hey, what's going on with that Tiki Barber guy? Haven't heard much about him lately. Why did I pick the Giants on the road here? Because the Cowboys are being consumed from within. Bill Parcells pulling Drew Bledsoe after one interception was the second-least-surprising thing to happen in this game. And he least surprising thing? Tony Romo throwing three interceptions after replacing Bledsoe. No, he actually isn't the answer. You didn't know that?

INCORRECT PICKS
Tampa Bay 23, Philadelphia 21: Donovan McNabb throws a career-high five touchdown passes, but only three of them to his own team, as the Buccaneers "beat" the Eagles the same way the Bears "beat" the Cardinals last Monday.

Cincinnati 17, Carolina 14: In his career, Jake Delhomme had never turned the ball over inside the opponents' 10 yard line. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Bengals could win the AFC North by default.

Atlanta 41, Pittsburgh 38 (OT): And the Steeler bandwagon throws a rod after just one week. In the first half alone we saw both how Pittsburgh rolled to two decisive wins this year -- by moving the ball at will -- and how Pittsburgh chalked up three embarrassing losses -- with all kinds of mental errors. Yet they were still ahead by three, until Ben Roethlisberger broke something else.

Kansas City 30, San Diego 27: On the way to 8-8, you're going to win a couple good ones here and there, especially when you can catch the Chargers sniffing their shorts for a half.

Houston 27, Jacksonville 7: Wow. Not even close. Suddenly the Jaguars' loss to Washington doesn't seem like such a fluke.

Minnesota 31, Seattle 13: Wow. Not even close. Suddenly the Vikings' win over Washington doesn't seem like such a fluke

Oakland 22, Arizona 6: This time the Cardinals tried spotting the other team a 14-point lead in the first quarter, and yet the result was the same. Behold the power of the red bird: Arizona has forced 11 turnovers in their last two games, and still lost both times.

THIS WEEK: 6-7
SEASON: 64-36 (64.0%)
(2005 through Week 7: 64-38)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 7
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK7 = This week's ranking. WK6 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

WK7	WK6	TEAM	POW		WK7	WK6	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	17	Panthers	35.09
2	2	Chargers	81.17		18	19	Chiefs	33.96
3	3	Broncos	72.65		19	18	Seahwaks	27.69
4	7	Patriots	69.53		20	21	Jets	27.52
5	6	Ravens	65.80		21	20	Redskins	25.25
6	9	Colts	58.18		22	28	Packers	19.67
7	8	Eagles	56.39		23	22	Cardinals	18.07
8	4	Cowboys	54.57		24	25	Dolphins	16.07
9	10	Saints	54.48		T25	24	Browns	15.64
10	16	Vikings	51.89		T25	26	Lions	15.64
11	13	Giants	50.97		27	29	Bucs	14.05
12	5	Jaguars	50.65		28	23	Bills	11.70
13	12	Falcons	46.62		29	31	Texans	10.73
14	11	Steelers	46.26		30	27	49ers	10.39
15	14	Bengals	45.22		31	30	Titans	0.84
16	15	Rams	42.63		32	32	Raiders	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Redskins, Browns, Bills. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals.

Week 6, now with Retsin!

I have to say, I'd never spent a Monday night hoping that the team I picked would lose. But seeing Arizona thoroughly dominate the Bears for three quarters made me say, "Hey, this would be a really nice story if the Cardinals won." Yeah, well. Get ready for a week of how-resilient-are-the-Bears stories rather than a week of what-the-fuck-is-wrong-with-Rex stories. With Chicago's ridiculous victory, I finished 9-4 for the week in the picks, which doesn't seem like much, but no one did any better, and 16 out of 22 did worse.

Because this is Week 6, Down and Distance has begun tracking the teams that have been eliminated from consideration for the Super Bowl championship. Why Week 6? See our explanation from last year. The upshot is that no team can be expected to win the Super Bowl after losing five games in the regular season. Two teams have proved themselves exceptions: the Patriots and Steelers. So they get eliminated at six losses.

So as this rap is winding down, it's plain to see I forgot my hat ...

CORRECT PICKS
Seattle 30, St. Louis 28: In Week 3, the Rams were leading by 2 when the Cardinals turned the ball over in field goal range in the final two minutes. The Rams won to improve to 2-1. In Week 4, the Rams were leading by 7 when the Lions turned the ball over in the final two minutes. The Rams won to improve to 3-1. In Week 5, the Rams were leading by 3 when the Packers turned the ball over in field goal range in the final two minutes. The Rams won to improve to 4-1. On Sunday, Week 6, the Rams were trailing by 6 when the Seahawks turned the ball over in field goal range in the final three minutes. The Rams scored, then the Seahawks scored, and the Rams lost. Give St. Louis credit for being better than some people (me) were willing to admit, but don't give them too much credit. When you're up 21-7 on the defending division and conference champions, you have to slam the door. Referee-Administered Beatdown of the Week: Ed Hochuli tells the St. Louis crowd -- and Rams coach Scott Linehan, who's dancing around like a fool on the sideline -- that the offensive penalty against Seattle did not, in fact, end the game. Nonsensical Faux-Insight Quote of the Week: After Deion Branch caught his second TD on a sweet fade from Matt Hasselbeck, Fox commentator Ron Pitts declared, "They'll say it every time, because it's true: A perfect throw will beat perfect coverage all day long." This appears to be an attempt to adapt the baseball adage "good pitching beats good hitting" to football. The problem, Pitts, is that in football a perfect throw is, by definition, one that beats the coverage. It's like saying, "You know, if you want three points, you should kick the ball through the uprights." Idiot.

N.Y. Giants 27, Atlanta 14: I admit that I loves to make me some fun of the fact that when Michael Vick is in one of his little grooves, he couldn't hit a receiver on the hands even if he had a ruler and a nun's habit. (Does that even make any sense?) But Sunday, he ws not in one of those grooves. Five minutes into the first quarter, he laid a pass right on Roddy White's butter-coated fingers; White not only tipped the ball to Giants DB Sam Madison, he also quit on the play as Madison ran the INT back upfield. About seven minutes later, Vick launched a 65-yard rocket that came down square on the damn palms of Michael Jenkins, who dropped it. With Vick's receivers working overtime to screw him, the Giants eventually took the lead. Jeremy Shockey caught two touchdowns; I'm sure we'll all be sorry for that soon enough.

Dallas 34, Houston 6: In the football equivalent of winning the battle but losing the war, the Cowboys got the ball to Terrell Owens for three touchdowns. Here's why the Texans are the Texans: With 34 seconds left in the first half and the game tied 3-3, Houston had 3rd-and-1 at the Dallas 31. Common sense says you either take a shot at the end zone or you throw a quick out to the sideline to try to get the first down and kill the clock. So long as you don't throw an interception, you can only benefit. Houston's call? Ron Dayne off right tackle for no gain. Houston kicks the field goal -- which is all it would have been able to do even if Dayne had gotten the first down -- to go up 6-3. Dallas promptly scores 31 unanswered in the second half.

Detroit 20, Buffalo 17: A total turkey, this game. The only thing that redeemed it was Roy Williams' touchdown celebration at the end of the first half. After catching a 28-yard TD in the back corner of the end zone, Williams made a beeline for a 5- or 6-year-old kid sitting in the front row, hopped onto the rail fronting the stands, handed the kid the ball and tousled his hair. The kid was wearing Williams' No. 11 jersey. Too cute. The only thing missing was a kitty-cat, though Roary tried to stick his sorry flammable ass in there. In the fourth quarter, CBS put up a graphic purporting to show what a clutch quarterback J.P. Losman is. In the fourth quarter of games this season, it said, he had completed nearly 70% of his passes for 231 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions and a 99.4 rating. The graphic left out the fact that in the fourth quarter in Week 1, Losman took a sack in the end zone for a game-losing safety. And that one fourth-quarter TD pass? It came in the final minute against the Bears last week when the Bills were down 40-0. He's like Elway out there!

San Diego 48, San Francisco 19: Probably doesn't make Stan Humphries and Natrone Means feel any better, but there had to have been some longtime Charger fan somewhere whispering "take that" as LaDainian Tomlinson scored his fourth touchdown.

N.Y. Jets 20, Miami 17: What a dog. CBS can send its No. 1 team to the Meadowlands to hype up Jets-Dolphins as a meaningful game, but a dog's a dog.

Pittsburgh 45, Kansas City 7: The Bengals have crumbled. The Ravens, they stumbled. The Browns just bumbled. And Pittsbrugh rumbled! K.C. was humbled. Herm Edwards grumbled. Big Ben mumbled: "So what if I tumbled? It's not like I fumbled." AFC North is jumbled.

Denver 13, Oakland 3: It's always nice to win by 10 points, and Denver has done so each of the past three weeks. But a 17-7 victory over the unbeaten Patriots and a 13-3 victory over the unbeaten Ravens are considerably more impressive than a 13-3 win over the winless Raiders. Something's just wrong in the mountains when Oakland, at 0-5, is the only team to have scored fewer points than the 4-1 Broncos.

Chicago 24, Arizona 23: All week we'd been hearing about how this was going to be an ugly blowout. On offense, we'd see a team move the ball at will and build a big lead. On defense, we'd see them beat the holy hell out of ballcarriers and pressure their opponent's young quarterback into costly mistakes. And for the first three quarters, that team was the Cardinals? Then, in the fourth quarter, when all Arizona needed to do was get a few first downs and keep the clock moving, Dennis Green abandoned the short passing game that had shredded the Bears and instead played the send-Edgerrin-into-the-teeth-of-the-beast-on-every-play card. How was Chicago able to come all the way back? Because Green's play-calling extended the game by a full half-hour. Regardless of all that, what we saw at the Pink Taco was what happens when you get caught looking past an opponent -- any opponent -- in the NFL. You show up on Monday Night Football preening and dancing and flexing your muscles for the cameras and before you know it you're down 20 points -- and you're lucky it's not 30. I've already explained what the lesson of this game for the Cardinals was. You figure out what it should be for the Bears. Probably that they shouldn't let Rex Grossman read about himself in the newspaper anymore.

INCORRECT PICKS
New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24: It's not as if the Eagles were ambushed by some fired-up Division I-AA program here. The Saints were 4-1 coming in and had dismantled the Falcons on national television. Remember? That game with all the people talking about the hurricanes? The president's dad flipped the coin? That one. And yet the Eagles gagged lolly for the whole first and second quarters, showed up briefly for the third, then got their asses delivered to them in the fourth. All right, Philadelphia, laissez la panique rouler! During the game, the Fox crew threw up a graphic that was meant, I guess, to demonstrate that the Saints are the league's most woeful franchise. New Orleans is one of only three NFL teams, the Chyron said, never to have appeared in either a Super Bowl or a pre-merger NFL championship game. The others two clubs are Jacksonville and Houston, both of which are considerably younger than the Saints (and the Jaguars have at least been to a conference championship game twice). This was true, as far as it went, but let's look at it another way: How long have fans of each franchise been waiting for their team to appear in a title game? The longest waits, in years:

TEAM	SEASON / EVENT		YRS
Steelers	2005	Super Bowl	1
Seahawks	2005	Super Bowl	1
Patriots	2004	Super Bowl	2
Eagles	2004	Super Bowl	2
Panthers	2003	Super Bowl	3
Bucs	2002	Super Bowl	4
Raiders	2002	Super Bowl	4
Texans	2002	Expansion	4
Rams	2001	Super Bowl	5
Giants	2000	Super Bowl	6
Ravens	2000	Super Bowl	6
Titans	1999	Super Bowl	7
Broncos	1998	Super Bowl	8
Falcons	1998	Super Bowl	8
Packers	1997	Super Bowl	9
Cowboys	1995	Super Bowl	11
Jaguars	1995	Expansion	11
49ers	1994	Super Bowl	12
Chargers	1994	Super Bowl	12
Bills	1993	Super Bowl	13
Redskins	1991	Super Bowl	15
Bengals	1988	Super Bowl	18
Bears	1985	Super Bowl	21
Dolphins	1984	Super Bowl	22
Vikings	1976	Super Bowl	30
Colts	1970	Super Bowl	35
Chiefs	1969	Super Bowl	36
Browns	1969	NFL Champ.	36
Jets	1968	Super Bowl	37
Saints	1967	Expansion	39
Lions	1957	NFL Champ.	49
Cardinals	1948	NFL Champ.	58

Ah, the usual suspects!

Tennessee 25, Washington 22: Washington started out looking great, but then, as usual, they filled their underwear as soon as they fell behind. The Redskins, like the Eagles, can't say they couldn't have seen it coming. The Titans very nearly beat the Colts last week -- although nearly beating the Colts doesn't really seem to be as difficult as it once was. What made this one a real huckleberry was that it wasn't No. 1 USA Superstar Vince Young who ran wild on the Redskins, but Travis Henry. Travis Henry! I don't know what's wrong with the Redskins, though everyone else in town seems to. (Brandon Lloyd's theory: Not enough Brandon Lloyd in the gameplan. And he may be right.) It's either too many stars, or not enough stars, or not enough stars in the right places. I'll wait for the local hive mind to weigh in on Redskins Lunch. One post-game caller, though, opined that the 2-4 record is the fault of "all these defensive coordinators they keep bringing in." Has someone told Gregg Williams about these guys?

Carolina 23, Baltimore 21: I'd have picked the Panthers if I'd known Steve McNair was going to get hurt! Heh. Touchdown passes in five-plus games this year by McNair, who was brought in because Kyler Boller sucks: 5. Touchdown passes Sunday by Kyle Boller: 3. The best thing about statistics like these is that you can't tell when they've been twisted grotesquely out of context. Carolina does this to me every year: They come out and crap their pants in the opener, stumble around unimpressively for a few weeks, and then all of a sudden are 4-2. You don't want to say it's all Steve Smith, but ... you don't have to, because I just said it.

Tampa Bay 14, Cincinnati 13: I'm not saying that wasn't a touchdown on the play that got reviewed right at the end, but if there was indisputable visual evidence, I didn't see it. I watched maybe 10 minutes of this game over the course of the afternoon, and it was 10 minutes too many. Pee-yoo. Cincy appears to have peaked. The question in: Has Tampa?

THIS WEEK: 9-4
SEASON: 58-29 (66.2%)
(2005 through Week 6: 56-32)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 6
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: WK6 = This week's ranking. WK5 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

WK6	WK5	TEAM	POW		WK6	WK5	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	17	Panthers	45.06
2	2	Chargers	95.71		18	18	Seahawks	44.57
3	9	Broncos	72.95		19	7	Chiefs	40.24
4	12	Cowboys	70.56		20	19	Redskins	38.87
5	6	Jaguars	70.46		21	24	Jets	32.76
6	3	Ravens	70.45		22	22	Cardinals	32.60
7	8	Patriots	65.95		23	23	Bills	30.94
8	5	Eagles	65.38		24	21	Browns	30.32
9	11	Colts	61.91		25	26	Dolphins	27.42
10	10	Saints	60.66		26	28	Lions	25.99
11	20	Steelers	58.37		27	25	49ers	22.57
12	4	Falcons	55.85		28	27	Packers	21.87
13	16	Giants	54.16		29	30	Bucs	19.06
14	13	Bengals	52.12		30	31	Titans	14.32
15	14	Rams	50.42		31	29	Texans	9.52
16	15	Vikings	50.40		32	32	Raiders	0.00

Teams eliminated from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals.

In defense of Harrington ... or maybe I mean Culpepper

The Miami Dolphins have benched Daunte Culpepper -- possibly for the rest of the season -- and will be starting Joey Harrington at quarterback. This tells us:

A) Harrington is a better quarterback than Culpepper.
B) Culpepper's knee is not fully healed after he tore his ACL, his MCL ... pretty much every CL except NaCl.
C) The 2004 Detroit Lions offensive line was worse than the 2004 Minnesota Vikings offensive line.

The answer, obviously, is C. Because whenever a multiple-choice answer is a total non sequitur like that, it has to be the correct one. Congratulations. You just learned one of the secrets of journalism and mass communication.

In the Dolphins' first four games -- a sluggish loss to the Steelers, a shocking loss to the Bills, a gruesome win over the Titans and a humiliating loss to the Texans -- Culpepper was sacked 21 times. Last Sunday, in a predictable loss to the Patriots, Harrington was sacked just once. The numbers make sense if you noticed the subtle differences in the way they played. For example, when the rush closed in on Culpepper, he'd hold the ball, hold the ball, hold the ball, then do a little cha-cha-cha before going down in an embarrassing pile. When the rush closed in on Harrington, on the other hand, his eyes would get big like pie plates and he would dump the ball off or throw it away. Neither quarterback was making Miami fans forget Dan Marino, or even Jay Fiedler, but our pal Joey at least helped the cause by not losing 12 yards every other time he dropped back. Hell, if Harrington hadn't thrown two interceptions, the Dolphins might have even beaten the Patriots. Which is sort of like saying that except for that business at Dealey Plaza, Jackie had a great time in Dallas.

The question has been circulating for a year now: What's wrong with Culpepper? The conventional wisdom -- the kind of thinking Down and Distance sneers at unless we can get a funny joke out of it -- held that Culpepper was lost without his longtime favorite target, Randy Moss, who was run out of Minnesota for miscreant behavior a season before Culpepper had the same thing done to him. (To be fair, if I had to pick a player to live in my neighborhood, I'd rather have the one who played dice on a boat full of strippers rather than the one who tried to run over a meter maid. But I'm a native Minnesotan.) And yes, Culpepper did indeed go ass-up as soon as he had to play without Moss: Coming off an incredible season in 2004, he opened 2005 with 8 interceptions and no touchdowns in his first two games. Last year, in games against teams that weren't living out of suitcases in San Antonio, he threw just three touchdowns and 12 interceptions before his knee was destroyed (a medical term) against Carolina in the seventh game of the season.

The most significant difference between the 2004 Vikings and the 2005 Vikings, however, wasn't the disappearance of Randy Moss; it was the loss of four-time Pro Bowl center Matt Birk, who sat out the year recovering both from hip surgery and from the team's well-thought-out, cheap-ass way of doing business. Without Birk to keep the bad guys out of the pocket, Culpepper was missing a critical element of his success: not Moss, but time. Facing the kind of relentless pocket pressure he had never before experienced, he started off dreadfully in 2005. And just when he seemed to be adjusting -- we forget that the week before his injury, he had a passer rating of 123.1 against the Packers -- he was out for the year.

So we zip forward to 2006, and here's Culpepper in Miami. Remember? The Dolphins were going to challenge the Pats for the AFC East title? They had an outside shot at the Super Bowl? And then the season started, and Miami went plunk! right into the toilet, and the first thing we heard was the old Victrola playing Culpepper Can't Do It Without Moss (which is a Lindy, I think). The second thing we heard was "Culpepper is no good if he can't run." Which is pretty silly, too, because even if he didn't have a knee rebuilt out of an Erector Set, where's he going to run to? A "mobile" quarterback, however you want to define that, isn't out there by himself. He has to have a line in front of him holding off the rush so he either has the time to wait for a receiver to get open or has an escape route should he pull the ball down and run with it. Michael Vick is an exciting guy and a tough little bastard, but if he didn't have a halfway-decent line, his career would be over by now. (It'll be short enough as it is.) Culpepper wasn't getting any protection from his line, but he didn't seem to realize it. This is not a guy who's used to the pocket collapsing around him. In Minnesota, pre-2005, he occasionally experienced protection problems and from time to time took a "coverage sack." But in Miami he's been stuck behind the Maginot Line. He holds the ball too long because throughout his career he's never had to get rid of it in a hurry. He tries to run because he thinks there's going to be someplace to go. And, of course, on some level he doesn't realize that the knee still ain't right. Oh yeah, and no Randy Moss. Put it together, and you've got a disaster.

And this all leads us back to Harrington, who still, resolutely, goes by "Joey" when it's really got to be easier in the locker room if you're a "Joe." Down and Distance has always been something of a Joey Harrington fan, though not really for his play. The guy is probably a career backup, and there's no shame in that. What you have to respect about Harrington, though, is that he hung in there as long as he did in Detroit, where he was set up to fail from the time he arrived as the third overall pick in the 2002 draft. (Please note that he went to Oregon, the school that hyped the Smith brothers, Akili and Onterrio, all the way into the NFL. Oregon's mascot should probably be the Red Herring rather than the Duck.) Once Harrington got into the league, Detroit Lions resident genius Matt Millen stuck him first with a coach who didn't know what he was doing (Marty Mornhinwheg), then one who never had any intention of giving him a shot (Steve Mariucci). Millen supplied Harrington a cadre of receivers whose egos were as fragile as their clavicles, plus a twelfth-rate offensive line. And when Harrington proved himself only an average quarterback, which, considering the circumstances, was not too shabby, Millen let him take all the blame for the franchise's pathetic condition.

But as it turns out, Harrington may get the last laugh. (Or, he would if anyone in Miami can laugh anymore.) As it turns out, three-and-a-half years running for your life in Detroit prepares you perfectly to play quarterback for the 2006 Miami Dolphins. As it turns out, the Dolphins didn't need a quarterback who won games with a good team; they needed one who lost games on a bad team. Culpepper put up fantastic numbers in Minnesota by throwing the ball to trapeze artists from behind the Berlin Wall. Harrington put up mediocre numbers in Detroit by throwing the ball sideways as the building collapsed around him. Who do you think is better prepared for the job in Miami?

Week 5 recap, mostly T.O.-free

After two weeks in which I barely kept my head above water at 8-6, I turned in a solid 12-2 this week in The Writers Picks, posted here. Of course, I wasn't the only one at 12-2. And several people went 14-0, so it's not like I climbed in the standings. I could have gone 14-0, too. If, say, Brett Favre had not gone Kurt Warner and fumbled the ball away in field goal range. And if, say, Drew Bledsoe had thrown fewer passes to a) Terrell Owens, and b) Eagles defenders. Then I would have been undefeated, and everyone else would be looking up at me. Now, if you'll excuse me. I have some tile to regrout in the bathroom.

CORRECT PICKS
Indianapolis 14, Tennessee 13: The Colts continue to crumble. You can any-given-Sunday this all you want, but a come-from-behind victory over a Titans team that got waxed by Dallas last week is even less impressive than last week's come-from-behind victory over a Jets team that got waxed by the Jaguars this week. Don't let 5-0 fool you: Indianapolis is falling apart. The line on this game, by the way, was Colts by 18 1/2 points. Only the worst kind of sucker would fall for that.

Chicago 40, Buffalo 7: The Bears are the anti-Colts. Both teams are 5-0, but while Indianapolis is eking out increasingly tiny victories over increasingly lousy teams, Chicago is kicking the crap out of all comers, from the defending NFC champions of Seattle to the meandering boys of Buffalo. There are as yet no visible weaknesses. The defense eats children 5 and up for breakfast. The running game is clomping waffle marks into opposing linebackers. Rex Grossman is firing on as many cylinders as you want to give him. And we're getting into the part of the season where Lovie Smith wears that hat so unapologetically. This is the most dominant team the league has had in years. Notice I didn't say the "best" team. It's too early to make that kind of judgment. I said the "most dominant" team. The way they're blowing people into Lake Michigan is incredible.

New York Giants 19, Washington 3: The Redskins are better than this. They have to be. Seeing Eli Manning hang in there and deliver the ball knowing that he was going to get blasted almost makes me want to take back some of the bad things I said about him last year. And last week. (I said almost.) Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora both got a sack Sunday, so we can all shut up about that for a while. It's Mark Brunell -- he's 55 years old. You could sack him from a wheelchair.

Carolina 20, Cleveland 12: This week's least-surprising result.

Minnesota 26, Detroit 17: Purple and fool's gold. This was the first time the Vikings scored more than 20 points this season, no thanks to the offense. You can't count on your defense to score two touchdowns every week, nor can you count on the other team to give the game away in the waning minutes.

New Orleans 24, Tampa Bay 21: At halftime, Fox's Jimmy Johnson declared that when Chris Simms returns, he'll probably do so as Bruce Gradkowski's backup. Maybe so, but jeez. Perhaps we could give Gradkowski more than one TD pass -- and let Simms' body get cold -- before we start bending over backwards with the Tom Brady comparisons. He lost the game, for God's sake.

New England 20, Miami 10: Speaking of the Hollerin' Yokels of Fox NFL Sunday, Terry Bradshaw declared on the pregame: "I never was a Culpepper fan because I thought Randy Moss made him the great quarterback that he was in Minnesota. Without Moss, Culpepper is a just a good quarterback." Actually, without Moss, Culpepper hasn't even been a good quarterback. Without Moss, Culpepper has been the kind of quarterback who makes people in South Florida suggest that Joey Harrington should start for a while. Harrington did start on Sunday, and for about a half he played better than Tom Brady. But only for a half. He'll hold the job until Culpepper recovers from his knee injury (for real, rather than in Dolphins Front Office Fantasy Land), which is the way it should have been back in August.

Kansas City 23, Arizona 20: Having a budding superstar like Matt Leinart taking the snaps is great, but when the clock ticks down to zero, it's the Cardinal on the helmet, not the name on the jersey, that matters most.

Jacksonville 41, N.Y. Jets 0: Watching the Jaguars choke away the game in Washington last week, it was inevitable that they'd come home and take out their aggression on the poor Jets. AP refers to this one as "the worst Jets loss in 20 years." I mean, yeah, it's embarrassing, but is it really worse than that cold January day in Pittsburgh when Doug Brien died? Here's the kind of day it was for Gang Green: Coach Eric Mangini ran quarterback-of-the-future Kellen Clemens out there for the last series just to get his feet wet in what would have been garbage time if the score had been 41-3. But it was 41-0, and the Jags were gunning for the shutout. So Clemens got sacked twice and fumbled the ball away. Welcome to the NFL. Now, kneel before Zod.

San Francisco 34, Oakland 20: The resistible force meets the movable object, and we have our answer: It's better to have a team full of marginal grinders than a team full of talented loafers.

San Diego 23, Pittsburgh 13: No doubt about it, Philip Rivers has made the Chargers "his" team. Meanwhile, his fellow member of the Class of 2004, Ben Roethlisberger, had nowhere to go but down after winning the Super Bowl. And down he goes.

Denver 13, New England 3: Another Monday night shootout. Remember when Steve McNair was going to invigorate the Baltimore offense? Remember when Jake Plummer quit making bad decisions? Regardless, the most important thing about this game is that Chris McAlister's fumble recovery appears to have made the difference in giving me my first-ever (and likely last-ever) fantasy football victory. My team, the Ramshackle Hobos, came into the weekend last in the league at 0-4. Lucky for me, my opponent was also 0-4 and appears to have already given up on his team. I didn't know Randy Moss played fantasy football!

INCORRECT PICKS
St. Louis 23, Green Bay 20: The upset special once again comes up one or two plays short. One of these days I'm gonna look like a genius, and you're all gonna say you knew me back when. Did I mention that I correctly picked the Ravens to upset the Steelers last year? After three straight narrow victories over the likes of the Cardinals, Lions and Packers, suddenly the Rams -- the Rams! -- are 4-1 and leading the NFC West. My, do cupcakes taste delicious!

Philadelphia 38, Dallas 24: The real shame of the T.O.-returns-to-Philly hoax was that it reduced Donovan McNabb, a decent man and a great damn quarterback, to a kind of grotesque sideshow -- one-half of a song-and-dance number of which he never wanted to be a part. So although I called this game wrong, it was pleasing to see McNabb put up ridiculous numbers (18-of-33 for 354 yards and 2 TDs) while Owens metastasized up and down the Dallas sideline.

THIS WEEK: 12-2
SEASON: 49-25 (66.2%)
(2005 through Week 3: 46-28)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 5
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team's ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK5 = This week's ranking. WK4 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score.)

WK5	WK4	TEAM	POW		WK5	WK4	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	22	Panthers	37.57
2	2	Chargers	86.22		18	19	Seahawks	36.77
3	3	Ravens	70.46		19	17	Redskins	33.21
4	6	Falcons	63.20		20	20	Steelers	28.58
5	7	Eagles	61.94		21	23	Browns	25.55
6	16	Jaguars	61.85		22	25	Cardinals	25.32
7	5	Chiefs	60.20		23	14	Bills	24.93
8	10	Patriots	57.77		24	15	Jets	24.54
9	11	Broncos	57.18		25	29	49ers	24.01
10	8	Saints	54.88		26	24	Dolphins	20.74
11	9	Colts	54.11		27	28	Packers	17.91
12	4	Cowboys	52.84		28	26	Lions	17.45
13	12	Bengals	46.61		29	27	Texans	14.45
14	13	Rams	45.75		30	30	Bucs	9.94
15	18	Vikings	43.70		31	31	Titans	2.69
16	21	Giants	42.23		32	32	Raiders	0.00