We have a Houston problem

Every NFL season, in about Week 6, one club is crowned "The Year's Surprise Team." Traditionally, that designation goes to a club that has crawled out of the toilet to win four of its first six games after having finished 5-11 or 6-10 the previous season. If this were Week 6, we would be tickling ourselves with a discussion of who is "The Year's Surprise Team," and we would be concluding that it's the Washington Redskins. The team that's selected as "The Year's Surprise" in Week 6 usually stumbles through the rest of the schedule (Redskins: Check!) and finishes somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7.

This isn't Week 6, however; it's Week 14, and the bar is set much higher. When we get into December, to qualify as "The Year's Surprise Team," a club must have defied all expectations. It can't just exceed the projections; it has to blow them away. Observers must look at the team, shake their heads and say: I never saw that coming. That's why the Bengals and Bears don't qualify. Perhaps most people didn't expect them to be this good, but their success wasn't entirely unforeseeable, either.

So who's really "The Year's Surprise Team"? First, let's remember that most surprises -- and the biggest surprises -- aren't pleasant. Don't believe me? OK, remember how your computer crashed and you lost all that work? Or how that SUV rear-ended your car? Surprise!

This season's surprise club defied all expectations not by being better than anyone imagined but by being far, far worse. It isn't the Packers, the Eagles or even the Jets. The injuries that cracked those teams were unexpected, but the effects were all too predictable. The Vikings started awful but bumbled their way back into contention. One team, however, stands below all others. A team that fully expected this to be the year it all came together. A team that stormed into the season prepared to kick in the door to the NFL elite's clubhouse. A team that planned to charge through the league like the head of cattle depicted in the bloodless corporate logo on its letterhead and also its helmets. A team that ... Guess I gave it away there, didn't I?

"The Year's Surprise Team" for 2005 is the Houston Texans.

The NFL's newest team, the Texans had steadily improved in their first three years in the league, going from 4-12 in 2002, their inaugural season, to 5-11 in 2003 and 7-9 last year. With their young playmakers coming of age and their defense set to jell, the Texans had Houston abuzz as the season began. Though making the playoffs in the stacked AFC would be a challenge, this team would at least be fully in the hunt. After three years as a loser, an also-ran, this franchise would be a winner, a contender, a factor.

And they are a factor, of sorts, because the road to the No. 1 pick in next year's draft now goes through Houston, proud home of the 1-11 Texans. The Texans have fielded what is unquestionably the worst team in the National Football League this year -- and that's saying something, considering how well the 49ers, Saints, Ravens and Jets have been "playing."

What went wrong in Houston? Oh, there are plenty of places you could look for answers to that question: the locker room, the owner's suite, even the league offices. But all you'd find there are scapegoats. Do you want the truth, or do you want a fall guy? At Down and Distance, we'll take the truth probably six or seven times out of ten. We're really less a football blog than a peer-reviewed journal, except without the peers or the reviewing. And as football scholars, we look for answers not in men but in history. Because if there's one thing that's immune from manipulation, misinterpretation, "spin" or out-and-out lies, it's history.

The story of the Texans begins in 1997, when Houston found itself without professional football for the first time since the Houston Oilers became a charter member of the American Football League in 1960. The Oilers, whose very name evoked Houston as the place where a hardworking man could get just about anything oiled, had moved to Tennessee after years of stadium-related antagonism between the city and franchise owner Bud Adams. Having defiantly told Adams that he'd get a new stadium costing hundreds of millions of dollars only over their cold, dead bodies, the city's movers and shakers began laying plans to secure another NFL franchise and to build a new stadium costing hundreds of millions of dollars.

Once the Oilers left, the NFL was so eager to see pro football return to Houston that in March 1999 its expansion committee voted overwhelmingly to award the league's 32nd franchise to Los Angeles. The deal was contingent on approval of a stadium plan, so the NFL might as well have awarded the franchise to the moon. Seven months later, with no deal in Southern California, the NFL was back in H-Town.

Once you get a franchise in place, the first thing you have to do is come up with a nickname. It's simple, right? Just call yourself the Gorillas or Juggernauts or something and start printing up T-shirts? Not so fast, pardner! Franchise owner Bob McNair was determined to come up with the rootin'est, tootin'est, focus-group'inest nickname this side of the Pecos. According to the team's official website, the name "Texans" was chosen following ...

" ... several months of research conducted jointly by Houston NFL 2002 and National Football League Properties. That research included multiple focus group studies performed in both English and Spanish in not only Houston, but also in numerous surrounding markets such as San Antonio, Austin, Galveston and Beaumont."

It took several months of research. In two languages. In several cities. To come up with "Texans." For a team in Texas. Actually, this process initially produced five possible nicknames for the team:

• Apollos, after the moon-landing program directed from Houston.
• Stallions, which was the name of the fictional franchise in The Last Boy Scout, though the team in the movie was in Los Angeles. (Ha!)
• Wildcatters, which has nothing to do with wild cats but rather refers to oil exploration, a historic, signature industry for Houston.
• Bobcats, which has nothing to do with oil exploration, a historic, signature industry in Houston, but rather refers to wild cats.
• Texans, which refers to people from Texas.

The names were eventually "narrowed down," and after nearly a year of study on the matter, the club was finally christened the "Texans" in September 2000. It took so long because with a cutting-edge name like Texans, you can't just do this willy-nilly.

The name "Texans" brought with it a considerable amount of football history, almost none of it good. In the preceding half-century, no fewer than three professional teams in three leagues had gone by the name Texans.

The first of these was the original Dallas Texans, an NFL franchise that existed for one dismal season, 1952. Playing home games in a virtually empty Cotton Bowl, these Texans went 1-11 (hey!) and were outscored 427-182. The 1952 Texans hold the proud distinction of being the last NFL team to go out of business. The league transferred the franchise rights to a group in Baltimore, which established the Colts.

The second set of Texans also played in Dallas, from 1960 to 1962. Like the Oilers, they were an original AFL franchise, and like the Oilers, they would leave Texas and enjoy their greatest success elsewhere. Though these Texans had settled in Dallas before the Cowboys, they were eventually run out of town by their NFL rival and settled in Kansas City.

The third Texans franchise was the 1974 Houston Texans of the World Football League. The what? The WFL was a get-rich-quick scheme disguised to look like a football league when viewed from the street. The attendance figures were padded, the players' paychecks bounced, the uniforms were hideous and the team names (Philadelphia Bell, Southern California Sun) were ridiculous. Franchises switched cities without notice and sometimes disappeared altogether. The Texans began the WFL's inaugural 1974 season in Houston, then fled to Louisiana in the middle of the schedule. They re-emerged as the Shreveport Steamer. Not Steamers. Steamer. The franchise, like the WFL itself, died in the middle of the 1975 season, impaled on a Dicker Rod.

Despite this half-century of bad hoodoo, the team went ahead and chose "Texans." In doing so, they were testing that old football adage: Don't expect sharp, inspired play from a team with a dumb, uninspired name.

The club then set about assembling personnel. First on board was head coach Dom Capers, who took the Carolina Panthers to the NFC Championship Game in just their second season -- but who had more recently been fired for taking the Panthers from there to 4-12 in just two more years. Capers hired as his offensive coordinator Chris Palmer, who had just been fired as head coach of the Cleveland Browns after compiling a 5-27 record over two seasons, during which his offense was last in the league in both yardage and points.

Next came players. In the expansion draft, the Texans resisted the temptation to snap up one of the B-list skill players available and instead used their first pick on Jacksonville Pro Bowl tackle Tony Boselli. Then, in the 2002 regular draft, they chose Fresno State quarterback David Carr. It was an inspired pair of choices: the young, talented quarterback and the veteran lineman who could offer him the protection he would need to grow into the job.

Unfortunately for Houston -- but mostly for Carr -- Boselli came with a full set of the kind of pre-existing conditions your insurance might not cover. He moved swiftly to injured reserve and never played a down for the Texans. Carr's fate would rest with a relatively inexperienced line, and with offensive coordinator Palmer, who had presided over the slow-motion destruction of former No. 1 pick Tim Couch. In such able hands, Carr was sacked 140 times over the next three years. And that's just counting the times the other team got to him while he still had the ball.

The Texans won their inaugural game 19-10 over the Dallas Cowboys on the way to a 4-12 record. In 2003, they added impact players such as wideout Andre Johnson and rookie-of-the-year tailback Domanick Davis, and they improved to 5-11. In 2004, the Texans won consecutive games for the first time and recorded their first shutout, 21-0 over the Jaguars. Their 7-9 finish led all manner of prognosticators, fans and good ol' boys to declare that 2005 would be the Texans' year ...

And now, sweet dreams and flying machines in pieces on the ground.

Boselli is gone, obviously. Palmer has been fired. Capers will be fired. Some people are starting, unfairly, to whisper "bust" around Carr. The league still wants a team in Los Angeles, and the Texans are playing worse than they did in their expansion year -- and quite possibly worse than any expansion team since the legendary 0-14 Buccaneers of 1976.

What'll it take for the Texans to become "The Year's Surprise Team" for 2006? They don't have to do anything. Because if next year's club resembles anything like this year's disaster, I'll be surprised. No, I'll be shocked. And Houston fans -- on the hook for $300 million worth of stadium for 75 cents worth of team -- will be appalled.

Week 14 picks

With just four weeks left in the season -- NOOOOOOOOOO! -- the Down and Distance analysis and prognostication staff has compiled a healthy 132-60 record in picking games straight up. That's 68.75%, a couple notches above the magic two-thirds line that separates the champions from the chumpions. The Mirl has posted this week's slate and updated standings on The Writers' Picks. As we slide toward the postseason and more games become true must-wins, we're seeing an increase in unanimous or near-unanimous picks, some of them surprising: Carolina over Tampa Bay, Minnesota over St. Louis, New England over Buffalo, Green Bay over Detroit, Atlanta over New Orleans. I picked all those teams to win, too, but I think any of the games could easily go the other way, so it surprises me that more people didn't take a flyer on underdogs. Don't expect me to. I'm a coward.

Green Bay's thin silver lining

I'm beginning to suspect that Brett Favre doesn't actually spend his evenings reading Down and Distance, but that won't keep me from trying to make him "feel better" about his beat-up and beat-down Green Bay Packers. After Sunday's 19-7 loss at Chicago, the Packers fell to 2-10, their worst record at this point in a season since 1988, the dark days of the Lindy Infante Age. But though the '88 Packers and the '05 Packers had equally dismal won-loss records after 12 games, there is a stark difference in the quality of their play. That difference is most apparent in The Only Stats That Matter: points scored and points allowed. A look at those numbers shows us this year's Green Bay team -- yes, the sorry 2-10 Packers -- have a chance to make history.

We can use the 1988 Packers as a benchmark because that team's numbers are fairly typical for a club that loses 10 of 12. In stumbling to their 2-10 record, the '88 Packers were outscored by 64 points, 246-182; the '05 version, meanwhile, has been outscored by just 3 points, 242-239. As has been remarked upon (too) many times, this year's Packers had actually scored more points than their opponents until the Chicago game. Of course, we all remember that one of this year's Green Bay wins was a 52-3 dismantling of the New Orleans Saints. Take that game out of the equation, and they've been outscored by 52 points, 239-187. That's closer to the 1988 Packers. But wait: One of the '88 team's victories was a 45-3 throttling of the New England Patriots. Take that game away, and their deficit widens to almost 100 points: 243-137.

In fact, if we remove each team's two victories and just count the 10 losses, we find that the '88 team was outscored 229-103, while this year's Packers are down 214-154. Translating that to a per-game basis, the 1988 team lost its 10 games by an average of about two touchdowns, 23-10. The 2005 Green Bay team has lost its 10 games by less than a touchdown: 21-15. That's the remarkable thing about the 2005 Packers: They're losing game after game, but just barely. Compare the two teams' margins of defeat in each of their 10 losses (an asterisk denotes a shutout loss):

1988:	27	3	7	18	3	3	28*	20*	7	10
2005:	14	2	1	3	3	7	10	3	5	12

What the numbers mean is that the 1988 Packers lost all kinds of games, both close ones and blowouts, but the 2005 Packers have been "in" every game. Indeed, the 12-point loss to the Bears on Sunday was their largest defeat since falling 17-3 to Detroit in Week 1. That Detroit game, meanwhile, was their biggest loss this year, and it was by just 14 points. Of the 31 other teams in the NFL, only six have yet to lose a game by 14 points or more: the 12-0 Colts (obviously), the 10-2 Seahawks, the 9-3 Jaguars, the 9-3 Panthers, the 8-4 Chargers and the 7-5 Cowboys. (The 9-3 Bengals' biggest loss was also by 14, as was, oddly, the 4-8 Browns'.)

The Packers' remaining games are against Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago and Seattle. The Lions are bleeding from every opening at this point, so it's entirely conceivable, if not exactly probable, that the Packers could beat them and/or the Ravens by enough that Green Bay could finish 3-13 or 4-12 yet still outscore their opponents. If they pulled that off, it would be an unprecedented feat. So Brett, if you're still reading, here's what you're playing for: HIStory, baby.

How rare is it for a losing team to score more points than its opponents over the course of a season? Since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, just 24 teams (out of 729) have done it (excluding the strike-skewed years of 1982 and 1987). Of those two dozen teams, 18 finished 7-9, which isn't all that different from 8-8, really. Those 7-9 teams ranged from the 1986 Saints and 2000 Chiefs, both of whom scored exactly 1 point more than they allowed, to the 1981 Falcons, who outscored their opponents by a remarkable 71 points.

Six other teams did even "better," outscoring their opponents despite finishing worse than 7-9. Those teams:

Year	Team	Rec.	PF	PA	Diff.
2001	Chargers	5-11	332	321	11
1990	Chargers	6-10	315	281	34
1990	Vikings	6-10	351	326	25
1983	Chiefs	6-10	386	367	19
2002	Jaguars	6-10	328	315	13
2001	Jaguars	6-10	294	286	8

The Packers have the opportunity to overtake the 2001 Chargers as the losingest team ever to come out ahead in points over a 16-game schedule. As Rocky Balboa said to Ivan Drago: Go for it!

Suppose the Packers do set this dubious and utterly obscure mark. What does it mean for their future? Uh, Brett, you might want to look away at this point. When a losing team outscores its opponents, it means it lost a lot of close games. Just look at the Packers this year. Or take those 2001 Chargers, whose offense was keyed by a rookie tailback named Tomlinson and an ancient QB named Flutie. Their five wins came by 27, 17, 14, 11 and 3 points. Their 11 losses came by 10, 10, 10, 7, 5, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3 and 3 points.

Now, when a team repeatedly winds up on the short end of close games, we inevitably hear that that team is "just a few players away" from "taking the next step" and becoming a serious contender the following season. It's a warm and fuzzy idea, but it isn't really borne out by the history. Of the 24 teams cited earlier, 12 had a better record the next year (including this year's Panthers and Chiefs, who have already put up more wins than they did in 2004) -- but six of those teams improved only to 8-8. Ten of the teams had a worse record the next year -- including two that dropped to 2-14 and two that went 4-12. Two teams finished with the same number of wins the next year. Not much to dance about there.

But for Brett Favre and others reading this in the northern Wisconsin gloom, take heart: The Green and Gold is on the precipice of accomplishing something unprecedented. That ought to warm up the ice-fishing hut. Yeah. Sure it will.

Week 13 recap

Late heroics by the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens pushed Down and Distance to an improbable 14-2 record in this week's picks. We're still trying to determine which was more exciting: the three TDs by the Seahawks defense or the five field goals by Texans kicker Kris Brown. We're leaning toward Brown, because the Seattle D could have had four TDs but came up three yards short. I mean, show a little effort out there, guys. What I got right, and what I got wrong:

CORRECT PICKS
Minnesota over Detroit: Yeah, Joey Harrington was the big problem in Detroit. The Lions have now placed their fate in the hands of 36-year-old china doll Jeff Garcia, whom we remember from Week 9, when he gave up a game-ending interception in OT against the Bears. With the cool-headed veteran Garcia at the wheel, Detroit's going to get this ship turned around, right, matey? Problem is, when a ship's already halfway to the ocean floor, you're just not going to get it going the other way. Down 14-3 late in the first half, the Lions had first down on the Vikings' 8 yard line. If they could punch it in, they'd be right back in it. Not only did Our Saviour proceed to throw three straight incomplete passes, on third down he threw the ball away even though the pressure had yet to reach him, he had room to run and even a sack would have left the Lions well within FG range. Then, down 21-16 late in the game, the Lions had the ball on the Vikings' 46. Though it was only second down, though there was still a minute to play, though the Lions were moving the ball well on the drive -- they'd already advanced from their own 7 -- Our Saviour uncorked a panicky, needless Hail Mary that came down into Viking hands. Thank God Harrington wasn't playing! Not to put too fine a point on it, but if you're looking to Jeff Garcia to be your X-Factor, your season is doomed. On the Minnesota side, quarterback Brad Johnson has celebrated his return to stardom by getting himself a Private Pyle haircut, and wide receiver Koren Robinson has somehow succeeded in making the good people of Seattle even angrier.

Chicago over Green Bay: Another remarkable display by the Bears defense to balance out utter ineptitude by the Bears offense. Picking Green Bay here would have been reasonable: The difference in the game proved to be two bad throws by Brett Favre, not anything Kyle Orton did. Orton ain't even Dilferrific anymore, and that hurts. The Down and Distance '85 Bears vs. '05 Bears Season Tracker has been updated. See latest results here.

Indianapolis over Tennessee: I don't know whether I could pick against the Colts in any game for the rest of the year. However, I also don't know whether I could pick the Colts as a Best Bet in any game for the rest of the year. See, the law of averages is leaning hard against my fortress of arrogance, and the walls are creaking and squeaking. Take this game: Indy may be looking ahead to San Diego and Seattle, and Tennessee has long been a thorn in Peyton Manning's side, and blah blah blah. Even when the Colts are coasting, they score five touchdowns.

Tampa Bay over New Orleans: Ugh. Went quickly, at least.

Carolina over Atlanta: Might want to just pick the home team in every NFC South matchup for the rest of the year. Except when that home team is the Saints.

Baltimore over Houston: Bam! Bam! Bam Bam Bam! What? Oh, I was just pounding the last nail into Dom Capers' coffin. All done. Bam! Bam Bam! What? No, now I'm working on Brian Billick's coffin. You didn't think a last-minute, 16-15 win over the Texans was going to save his job, did you?

Jacksonville over Cleveland: Is it cause for concern that the David Garrard-led Jaguars beat the Browns by only 6? Jacksonville's nine wins have been by 12, 6, 3, 6, 7, 27, 3, 7 and 6 points, so: No, not really. The Jags play just about everyone close. By the way, the benching of Browns QB Trent Dilfer, combined with the writing all over the wall outside Billick's office in Baltimore, makes it clear that the Ravens' Super Bowl victory has moved from the recent past to the distant past.

Miami over Buffalo: The last time I saw hair like J.P. Losman's, it was on a classmate at an editing seminar in 1991. Her name was Naomi. For the first quarter of Sunday's game, Losman and the plucky Bills appeared to forget that they were on the road, and they wound up leading 21-0. And for the first three quarters of the game, the Dolphins appeared to forget that they were at home against the Bills, and they wound up trailing 23-3. Eventually, however, everyone got on the same page. The Bills fell apart, and the Dolphins gave Sage Rosenfels ("He has a great big heart," my wife reminds us) a story to tell his grandchildren.

New York Giants over Dallas: For a Great Big Important Game, this was just crappy. The Giants even look like the 1984 Patriots in their home uniforms now. Those aren't throwbacks. They're throw-ups. And they've got Eli Manning so distracted, he couldn't hit the open man all day. Watching this game taught me that Roy Williams is just going to keep on horse-collaring people and no one's going to do anything about it.

Arizona over San Francisco: Looking at my Sunday Ticket schedule, I see this was the only Fox game this week that wasn't offered in HD. I wonder why. With Alex Smith starting for the 49ers, this pick was automatic. That's not really a dig at Smith; he's still learning to be a pro quarterback, and all his teammates are still learning to be pro everything elses. If it's any consolation, here are Sunday's stats for the last five No. 1 overall draft picks, all of them quarterbacks:

Player	C-A	Yds	TD	Int	Rtng	W/L
A. Smith, SF	16-24	185	0	3	50.1	L
E. Manning, NYG	12-31	152	0	2	27.8	W
C. Palmer, CIN	22-38	227	3	0	101.4	W
D. Carr, HOU	17-37	165	0	1	47.7	L
M. Vick, ATL	17-35	171	0	2	39.1	L

Looks like a lot of Chosen Ones were stinking up the league there (but there I go kissing Palmer's ass again). As for the Cardinals: What kicker had a worse week than Jay Feely? Arizona's Neil Rackers, who seemed on pace to set a batch of scoring records before tearing a muscle in practice. Ouch.

New England over New York Jets: Best Bet. The Jets defense gets thumbs-up for holding the Patriots to six points in the first half. But the offense has to do its part and come up with more than three. Didn't.

Washington over St. Louis: It's the 5-6 Redskins vs. the 5-6 Rams in ... the ... zzzzzz. Clinton Portis for a touchdown! And now ... the .... zzzzzz. Hey, Ryan Fitpatrick ... He's ... really ... zzzzzz.

San Diego over Oakland: As Paul Maguire would say: "You wanna talk about why the ESPN Sunday night crew is by far the worst team on NFL broadcasts?" In the first quarter, the boys in the booth observed that Chargers corner Quentin Jammer was giving Randy Moss a 10-yard cushion on every play. Mike Patrick suggested that Raiders QB Kerry Collins should just keep throwing 10-yard hitches to Moss until Jammer played him tighter. Joe Theismann responded that Collins would do that, except: "Remember, it's only his second year with Norv Turner. I think that this offense will evolve that way." Collins has now been Turner's quarterback for 28 games. If he doesn't get the system now, he never will. But whatever. The important thing is that no one argued the point that Collins will grow in Turner's offense next year. Then, in the fourth quarter, Maguire said of Collins' salary-cap situation: "There's a lot of money (that) has to go out to this guy. I just don't see him coming back to the Raiders next year." What the?

Seattle over Philadelphia: Flipping through the dictionary, I can't seem to find the right words for Monday night's performance by the Eagles. Embarrassment. Travesty. Abomination. Scourge. That's it! Scourge. Three weeks ago, Donovan McNabb ended Philly's season by throwing an interception that was brought back for a TD. The Eagles liked the results so much, it appears they put it in the playbook. I've never seen a stadium go from full to empty in the middle of a game like that. With more than 20 minutes left, the Linc was a tomb, and Al Michaels and John Madden were spinning yarns to pass the time.

INCORRECT PICKS
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati: If I have to miss a pick, this was a nice game to be wrong about. It's not that I'm a Steeler (Steela) hater (hayta) -- I like Ben Roethlisberger, really. But the Pittsburgh Steelers have become the NFL's Atlanta Braves, and I'd prefer not to have to watch them disintegrate in the playoffs yet again. It'd just be refreshing to see someone else crowned Miss AFC North. But you make picks with your head, not your heart, and in my head the Bengals had given me no reason to think they could beat the Steelers. I never said my head was right. A lot had happened since the Steelers steamrolled the Bengals in Cincinnati in Week 7, the most important of which was the Bengals' wild 45-37 loss to the Colts two weeks ago. That game taught the Bengals that they could hang in with the league's best, and they came into Heinz Field on Sunday expecting to win. Faced with a choice of getting into a defensive battle with the Steelers or getting into a shootout, they went after the shootout. In the first meeting, Pittsburgh made the Bengals play the Steelers' game. In this game, Cincinnati forced the Steelers to play the Bengals' game. That's why they won. (An aside: This game featured this week's Down and Distance Amusing Indicator of How the Game Is Really Played. Hines Ward, running an end-around, had the ball stripped out of his hands at the Bengals' 25. The customary scrum formed as half a dozen guys leaped on the football and started rasslin. Cincinnati safety Ifeanyi Ohalete had his back to the play the whole time and could not possibly have seen what had happened or who had leaped on the ball first. Nevertheless, when he turned around and saw the pile, he immediately started signaling Bengals' ball. I laffed out loud. None of these guys ever have a clue who's got the ball. They just start pointing.)

Denver over Kansas City: I suppose it was inevitable that after all the talk about how Denver may really be better than Indianapolis, the Broncos would go out and lose their next game. As the Bengals did with the Steelers, the Chiefs showed the value of a) getting ahead of the Broncos early, and b) forcing them into a shootout. I wrote a few weeks ago that the Denver running game allows Jake Plummer to be the best quarterback he can be: one who doesn't have to throw a lot. If you can force Plummer to throw a lot of passes, you can force him into errors, which is what happened Sunday. But just as this game showed other teams how Denver can be beaten, it also showed the Broncos how they can be beaten. Expect these matters to be addressed. Trick-Play-That-Wasn't-Really-a-Trick-Play of the Day: Inside the K.C. 10 yard line, Denver put Bradlee Van Pelt in at QB and moved Plummer to the wideout position. The Chiefs were so busy trying to figure out what Plummer was up to that they let Van Pelt take a QB draw untouched into the end zone.

THIS WEEK: 14-2
SEASON: 132-60

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POW-R-'ANKINGS FOR WEEK 13
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet, Ethernet, ARPANET, Aqua Net or any other -net. Honed by master mathematicians, lauded by football enthusiasts, the formula behind them predicted 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners, and 14 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the POW-R-'ANKINGS system. Get it? I mean, spaceships go to the moon with wider error margins than this. If Galileo or Copernicus had had science like this on his side, he'd have been Pimp No. 1 for all time. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: W13 = This week's ranking. W12 = Last week's ranking. PWR = POW-R centigrade score)

W13	W12	TEAM	PWR		W13	W12	TEAM	PWR
1	1	Colts	100.00		17	22	Patriots	37.65
2	6	Seahawks	78.45		18	19	Dolphins	37.18
3	2	Bears	76.63		19	21	Browns	32.48
4	4	Chargers	75.59		20	18	Raiders	31.30
5	7	Panthers	72.67		21	20	Rams	30.99
6	5	Giants	71.18		22	25	Vikings	27.88
7	3	Broncos	68.20		23	17	Eagles	27.24
8	8	Bengals	66.44		24	26	Cardinals	26.90
9	12	Jaguars	61.05		25	24	Lions	26.63
10	10	Cowboys	59.07		26	23	Titans	22.99
11	9	Steelers	58.11		27	27	Bills	22.58
12	13	Chiefs	55.30		28	28	Ravens	14.90
13	11	Falcons	55.15		29	29	Saints	9.77
14	14	Bucs	53.07		30	30	Jets	0.61
15	16	Redskins	46.29		31	31	49ers	0.19
16	15	Packers	42.93		32	32	Texans	0.00

Teams eliminated this week* from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Steelers, Cowboys, Falcons. Teams previously eliminated: Texans, Titans, Packers, Saints, 49ers, Jets, Bills, Ravens, Browns, Vikings, Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders, Lions, Eagles, Rams, Redskins.
*Though the Patriots have posted five losses, they've proved they can win the Super Bowl with an 11-5 record. So they get a pass for now.

Monsters and Midgets of the Midway

The most talked-about team in professional football this season has been, of course, the Miami Dolphins. More specifically, the increasingly sad-sack 1972 Miami Dolphins, who are stocking up on Depends in case Indianapolis goes undefeated. A close second is the Chicago Bears. More specifically, the 1985 Chicago Bears, who have become such a unit of legend that it's easy to forget they won only one Super Bowl.

The 1985 Bears are all up in our national face because the 2005 Bears have assembled a defense that could rival that legendary (see?) squad in defensive ferocity. Hard-core football scholars look at today's swarming, bloody-knuckled Bears D, and they recall the days of Buddy Ryan's 46, which bled opponents to death by sacking the quarterback, forcing interceptions and clawing away fumbles. Even casual fans will bend your ear with the parallels between the 1985 team of Dent, Singletary and the Fridge and today's team of Urlacher, That Guy and That Other Guy. Because of these similarities, little men in sports bars and jails across the country are right now chewing over the NFL Question of the Week: Could we be seeing the greatest defense of all time?

Kick-starting this discussion is the fact that, through 11 games, the Bears have surrendered an average of just 10.9 points a game (UPDATE THROUGH 16 GAMES: 12.6). The '85 Bears, by comparison, allowed 12.4 points a game. The only other team allowed to participate in greatest-defense-of-all-time pageants, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, gave up 10.3 points a game. So clearly these 21st-century Bears, if they can keep it up, could earn themselves a nummy slice of gridiron immortality.

In the leather-bound books of football history, however, records like "fewest points allowed" are really just footnotes. The chapters are always named after the champions. Indeed, had the '85 Bears and '00 Ravens not actually won their respective Super Bowls, the historic performance of their defenses would be remembered with grudging respect but, ultimately, disapproval. They'd be the defensive equivalent of the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, a 15-1 juggernaut that blew away one offensive record after another but is known today mostly as the team that couldn't put it together when it counted most.

Unfortunately, the only lesson the Vikings' experience holds for this year's Bears is "Don't choke" -- and I'm betting the Bears already have that one jotted on the locker-room blackboard. Two teams that the Bears could really learn something from are the 1981 San Diego Chargers and the 1992 New Orleans Saints. Both of those teams made the playoffs because they absolutely dominated on one side of the ball, and both teams have since faded into history because they had nothing to offer on the other side of the ball. The '81 Chargers were all about offense, leading the NFL in scoring at 30 points a game. But the Chargers had a J.V. defense that allowed 24 points a game, 26th out of 28 teams in the league. Thus Dan Fouts' Super Bowl dreams were destined to die on the Cincinnati riverfront in the January cold. The '92 Saints, meanwhile, had a huge defense that allowed only 13 points a game, best in the league, but their offense defined the term "nothing special" and was only good for 21 a game. It wasn't enough, and they were one and done in the playoffs.

So we come back to the 2005 Bears, and we realize that, despite that fantastic defense, this team faces extremely long odds of winning the Super Bowl. Because once we start looking beyond that fantastic defense, we see that there ain't much else.

The Bears offense is, in a word, terrible. Don't be distracted by all that's been written (including by, uh, me) about Kyle Orton's evolution into a "game manager." So far he has shown next to no ability to move the team -- certainly not against a competent defense. Take the Bears' past two games, both of them victories: 13-3 at home against Carolina and 13-10 on the road against Tampa Bay. Now, wins are wins, period, and no one should, could or would ever take these two extremely important conference victories away from the Bears. But look at how Chicago scored the deciding points in those games:

• Bears 13, Panthers 3: The Bears' lone touchdown came after Carolina turned the ball over on its own 8 yard line on its first possession. The Bears added a field goal after Carolina turned the ball over on its own 18.
• Bears 13, Buccaneers 10: The Bears' lone touchdown came after Tampa turned the ball over on its own 1 yard line on its first possession.

Chicago's defense, of course, deserves credit for coming up with the turnovers that led to the points. But the fact remains that it's been three weeks since the Bears have been able to score a touchdown without the ball having been handed to them inside the opponents' 10 yard line. As I wrote in my Week 12 recap, at some point the Bears are going to run into a team that's able to score 14 or 17 or 21 points on them, and they won't be able to rely on the opposing QB turning it over in the red zone or, as happened in Tampa, the opposing kicker shanking an easy field goal. Who knows who that team may be. It may be the Giants, Cowboys or Seahawks in the playoffs. It may be the Colts, Broncos or Bengals (shut up!) in the Super Bowl. Or maybe it'll be the Packers this weekend. Regardless, unless the team gets improvement out of the offense, and gets it soon, 2005 will not be Chicago's year.

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Whenever the 1985 Bears come up, all we ever hear about is that awesome defense. But a team doesn't go 15-1 on the strength of defense alone. The 2000 Ravens, remember, were 12-4 and lost three straight games in which they failed to score a touchdown. The 1992 Saints also went 12-4. The Bears, however, were able to go 15-1 because their offense was a worthy complement to their defense. See, what usually gets overlooked about the '85 Bears is that in addition to having the No. 1 defense, they were also the No. 2 scoring team in the NFL. They held teams to 12 points a game -- but they also scored close to 30 points a game (just like the 1981 Chargers). So on those occasions when an opponent was able to throw a couple touchdowns on the board, the Bears were coming back with four of their own. The defense played a huge role there, too, scoring six touchdowns and often setting the offense up in great field position. But the offense converted those opportunities and it sustained drives of its own. That's something today's Bears are not doing but next year's probably will.

There have been so many comparisons between the '85 and '05 Bears teams, yet rarely is the whole picture being taken into account. The following chart breaks down the week-by-week performance of both Bears teams in terms of The Only Stats That Matter (a phrase I'm thinking of copyrighting): points scored and points allowed. For each week it gives the 1985 and 2005 teams' margins of victory (or loss, in parentheses), plus the scores of that week's games. At bottom are the season averages (rounded to "real" points). I'll be updating this chart as the season progresses (NOW UPDATED THROUGH 16 GAMES):

GM	1985 MGN	1985 SCR	2005 MGN	2005 SCR
1	10	38-28	(2)	7-9
2	13	20-7	32	38-6
3	9	33-24	(17)	7-24
4	35	45-10	(10)	10-20
5	8	27-19	25	28-3
6	16	26-10	4	10-6
7	16	23-7	6	19-13
8	18	27-9	3	20-17
9	6	16-10	8	17-9
10	21	24-3	10	13-3
11	44	44-0	3	13-10
12	36	36-0	12	19-7
13	(14)	24-38	(13)	9-21
14	7	17-10	13	16-3
15	13	19-6	7	24-17
16	20	37-17	(24)	10-34
AVG.	17	29-12	3	16-13

Week 13 picks

After this weekend's games, the NFL regular season will be three-quarters of the way through. That means if you climb a high, high mountain, you'll be able to see the first streaks of off-season melancholy faintly visible on the horizon. For now, however, we'll put such mortal thoughts out of our minds and ride shotgun as the season churns along and our story lines wrap around each other like, I don't know, spaghetti, maybe.

The week's biggest story line, of course, was Lions cornerback Dre' Bly, who did to quarterback Joey Harrington the same thing that the Vikings tried to do to a boatload of let's-call-them-ladies a couple months back. And, whoa, this week the Lions host the Vikings! Spooky! Meanwhile, Brett Favre, who has beaten the Bears eight of the last nine times he's faced them, will tow the smoldering wreck of the Green Bay franchise into Soldier Field. There, the Packers will stare into the two faces of the Chicago Bears: the ravenous defense, and an offense that plays like it overindulged at the taco bar right before game time. And that's just the NFC North.

My predictions for all of this week's winners and losers are posted on The Writers' Picks at The Mirl. Do I think the Titans can beat the Colts this weekend? Yes I do. Do I think the Texans can beat the Ravens this week? Yes I do. Am I willing to go out on a limb on either game? Yeah, right. The farthest I'll go is to not make either game the week's Best Bet. Hard cheese. Did I mention I picked Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh a couple weeks back? Make sure to check the standings, as Down and Distance has crawled back into a tie for eighth place out of 31, with a record of 118-58 on the season. For you math majors out there, that's better than two-thirds.

Finally, my entry in the Football Outsiders Loser League -- The Christian Okoye Coalition -- is tied for a respectable 36th place out of 215 entries.

Week 12 recap

On the steel heels of the beatdown Indianapolis laid on Pittsburgh on Monday night, I finished the week 13-3 in my picks. On the scale described last week, that qualifies as remarkable. Awright! I'd like to give the thumbs-up to the kickers who helped me finish 13-3: Billy Cundiff, John Hall, Jay Feely, Jay Feely and Jay Feely. And I'd like to wag a different finger at the kickers who kept me from going 15-1: Matt Bryant and Mike Nugent. What I got right, and what I got wrong:

CORRECT PICKS
Atlanta over Detroit: You could say that the Lions are headed straight down, but that would falsely imply that everyone on the team is pulling in the same direction. Steve Mariucci has already paid with his head. Oh, that Matt Millen could be next ... More on the nationally televised Thanksgiving Day humiliation here.

Denver over Dallas: The conventional wisdom seems to be that this was a game last year's Denver Broncos would have lost. So I guess that means last year's Billy Cundiff would have made that 34-yard field goal?

Minnesota over Cleveland: The Vikings continue their campaign to make the inevitable postseason bloodletting as painful as possible. Brad Johnson, rattling off the rust week by week, brought his "A game." The Browns, predictably, brought their C game (Trent Dilfer) and their D-minus game (Charlie Frye).

Carolina over Buffalo: When Jake Delhomme goes 20-for-27 for 191 yards, one TD and no interceptions, that's a good game, right? And they say stats don't lie. Carolina played another crummy game on the road but lucked out because Buffalo, who's always crummy on the road, played a rare crummy game at home.

Kansas City over New England: I detest the football-players-as-soldiers metaphor. It disrespects real soldiers while it aggrandizes millionaire men in hotpants. But when I see Tom Brady out there, it reminds me of the scene in every war movie where the platoon has been reduced to one guy, and he keeps on firing at the enemy until he runs out of ammo. Four of Brady's passes were intercepted by the Chiefs, sure, but that's because he hasn't got anyone left to throw to on his side.

Tennessee over San Francisco: The Titans stink, but they went into the season knowing they were going to stink, and for whatever reason they can be fun to watch. The 49ers also stink, but not without a certain scraggly appeal. So this was not the worst matchup of 2-8 teams this week. That would be Saints-Jets.

Cincinnati over Baltimore: The Bengals eased up once they were ahead 34-0. Then the Ravens, who hadn't put up 20 points all year, promptly scored three touchdowns to make it 34-21. The Bengals put their ass-kicking shoes back on long enough to put the game away, but not before a couple of very important points were made: 1) It's never enough to just have your foot on the other guy's neck. You've got to bring your heel down and break the bone. 2) There's no such thing as "running up the score" in the NFL. If you're getting stomped, it's on you to make it stop. You're a professional; act like one. Ravens Secondary Item No. 1: Deion Sanders had his first interception of the season. Ravens Secondary Item No. 2: Deion Sanders is still playing for the Ravens? Wow. Shades of Reggie White with the 2000 Panthers. Ravens Secondary Item No. 3: Will Demps tore his ACL, ending his season, when he grabbed T.J. Houshmandzadeh's face mask, wasn't able to let go, and got his own leg caught under him. As he lay crumpled on the ground, the officials flagged him for a 15-yard personal foul. Told you grabbing the face mask was dangerous.

St. Louis over Houston: With less than a minute left in this game, here's what I was planning to write: "Only one team has been sorry enough this year to lose to the Arizona Cardinals, the San Francisco 49ers and the Houston Texans." Then wonderscrub quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had the greatest moment in the NFL by a Harvard graduate since J.B. was named host of the Fox studio show in 1994. All we can say now is that only one team has been sorry enough this year to trail the Cardinals, 49ers and Texans with 34 seconds left in each game. Doesn't have as much oomph, though.

San Diego over Washington: With less than a minute left in this game, here's what I was planning to write: "At some point you have to quit pointing to your tough schedule and go out and win some football games." Then the Redskins missed a field goal, and the Chargers won in overtime. So I'll save that for next week.

Seattle over New York Giants: With less than a minute left in this game, here's what I was planning to write: "I've said that there's no reason Seattle can't gain home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs, but seeing the Seahawks leave Jeremy Shockey uncovered on a two-point conversion has changed my thinking." Then the Giants missed a field goal, and another, and another, and the Seahawks won in overtime. That stuff I was going to write? Yeah, it still stands.

Jacksonville over Arizona: Jacksonville is extra-thankful today that backup QB David Garrard sabotaged his own career by signing an extension. And Kurt Warner ... where is this coming from?

Philadelphia over Green Bay: From 2000 through last season, these teams were a combined 112-48, a .700 record. Shows you just how amazing it was that this game meant almost nothing.

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh: Game after game this year, teams have brought the Full Belichick against the Colts. You know: banging the receivers at every opportunity, getting tuff after the whistle. And game after game, Edgerrin James just kills them. For two years, the question was: When is the rest of the league going to catch on to how the Patriots control Peyton Manning? Now the question is: When is the league going to try something else? Monday night, the Colts didn't beat the Steelers with finesse. They manhandled them both on offense and defense. The Colts beat up the Steelers. Think about how absurd that sentence would have sounded 11 months ago.

INCORRECT PICKS
Tampa Bay over Chicago: After sportswriters gave us two weeks of romantic poetry in which the tender, tousle-haired naïf Chris Simms grew into America's barrel-chested football hero, it was all but inevitable that Simms would give the next game away on the third play from scrimmage. Chicago's astonishing defense continues to insulate the two-legged train wreck yclept Kyle Orton, but at some point the Bears are going to surrender 14 points to an opponent, and they won't be able to count on the opposing QB dropping the ball on his own 1 or the opposing kicker missing a gimme field goal. If the New York Giants aren't that opponent, however, I don't know who it could be in the NFC.

Oakland over Miami: *Shrug*. If this were 1974 or 1983, this would have been a hell of a game. But since it's 2005: Eh. I just noticed that the Raiders' end-zone graphics appear to have been drawn with MacPaint.

New York Jets over New Orleans: All that stuff we read about Chris Simms the past two weeks? Prepare to read it again, except about Brooks Bollinger. This was pretty exciting for the hands-down worst NFL matchup ever offered on prime-time television, including last Monday's Vikings-Packers atrocity. Thanks to Mike Nugent, I came up one yard short of 14-2!

THIS WEEK: 13-3
SEASON: 118-58

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POW-R-'ANKINGS FOR WEEK 12
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet, Ethernet, ARPANET, Aqua Net or any other -net. Honed by master mathematicians, lauded by football enthusiasts, the formula behind them predicted 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners, and 14 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the POW-R-'ANKINGS system. Do you understand? Spaceships go to the moon with wider error margins than this. If Galileo had had science like this on his side, he'd have wiped up the floor with the lot of 'em. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: W12 = This week's ranking. W11 = Last week's ranking. PWR = POW-R centigrade score)

W12	W11	TEAM	PWR		W12	W11	TEAM	PWR
1	1	Colts	100.00		17	19	Eagles	42.22
2	2	Bears	78.23		18	17	Raiders	40.71
3	3	Broncos	76.94		19	23	Dolphins	39.59
4	5	Chargers	76.23		20	22	Rams	37.32
5	4	Giants	75.10		21	18	Browns	37.28
6	7	Seahawks	73.65		22	20	Patriots	37.27
7	8	Panthers	73.23		23	24	Titans	33.78
8	9	Bengals	71.91		24	21	Lions	30.13
9	6	Steelers	67.02		25	27	Vikings	28.20
10	10	Cowboys	66.63		26	25	Cardinals	27.23
11	12	Falcons	65.47		27	26	Bills	23.45
12	11	Jaguars	64.56		28	28	Ravens	14.96
13	13	Chiefs	59.52		29	29	Saints	13.84
14	14	Bucs	54.82		30	30	Jets	5.99
15	15	Packers	50.52		31	31	49ers	2.40
16	16	Redskins	45.20		32	32	Texans	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): None*. Teams previously eliminated: Texans, Titans, Packers, Saints, 49ers, Jets, Bills, Ravens, Browns, Vikings, Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders, Lions, Eagles, Rams, Redskins.

*Though the Patriots posted their fifth loss this week, they've proved they can win the Super Bowl with an 11-5 record. So they get a pass. For now.

Revisionist history

When football is on the television, the network has guys who talk about the game while the men in the helmets scamper about playing it. As I understand it, the idea behind this arrangement is that viewers will learn something because these talky-talky guys are knowledgeable about the game. In practice, however, the effectiveness of the setup varies with the announcing team. When Moose Johnston or Steve Tasker is speaking, I often hear something I didn't know. When Joe Theismann or Randy Cross is speaking, I hear only high-volume blah-blah-blah. And when Bill Maas is speaking, I don't just wonder whether he's watching the same game I am; I wonder whether he's watching the same sport. (Sunday, Maas was belaboring a point about good defensive linemen keeping their "toes" pointed straight up when they're in their stance. Think about the mechanics of that. Toes, toes, toes, he said. Then he showed a still shot and circled a player's heel and said, "See these toes pointed straight up?")

Regardless, you do expect a commentator to say things that make sense, even if they're blatantly obvious (everything Theismann says) or if you have to work a little to decipher what he's trying to say (Maas). And you don't expect him to parrot a line of nonsense that many fans at home know is nonsense. Like what Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden has been peddling in production meetings. Twice in the past couple of weeks, I've heard network announcers describe Gruden discussing the "tuck rule" in those meetings.

Gruden was the Raiders' head coach when they lost to the Patriots in the playoffs after the 2001 season. That was the game, played in a blizzard, in which an apparent game-deciding fumble by Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was reversed after a replay review. The official ruled that Brady lost the ball while bringing it down to "tuck" it after a pump-fake, which means he was in a passing action, which means the "fumble" was an incomplete pass. The Patriots retained possession, scored to tie the game and won in overtime. That game was Gruden's last as coach of the Raiders. Within two months the Buccaneers signed him away, even though he had a year left on his contract with Oakland. As compensation, the Bucs had to give the Raiders two first-round draft picks, two second-rounders and $8 million in cash.

With that history in mind, imagine how annoying it was to hear Fox broadcasters -- not once, but twice -- repeat without question Gruden's assertion that he had been "fired" in Oakland and had to "move across the country" because of the tuck rule.

Gruden had been at loggerheads with Raiders owner Al Davis long before that day in the New England snow. It was clear Gruden wanted out of Oakland, and it was clear that Davis wouldn't mind seeing him go, provided another team would pay Davis' price. The Bucs, who had fired Tony Dungy and been left at the altar by Bill Parcells, were that team. Gruden went to Florida and promptly took the Bucs to the Super Bowl. Gruden gained a certain measure of revenge by beating the Raiders in that Super Bowl. Yet for whatever reason, that story isn't good enough, so Gruden spins this yarn about being fired because of the tuck rule, and the Fox broadcasters wrap that yarn around their own necks and tempt me to strangle them with it.

Davis may have had plans to fire Gruden, may have wanted to fire him, may have dreamed about it, but he never actually did fire him. Even if Davis had canned him, it wouldn't have been over the playoff loss. It wouldn't have been over the tuck rule. Gruden chose to pack up his family and move them across the country, and the Buccaneers had to pay a fat price for the privilege of having him.

Gruden is a smart fellow. I'm willing to at least consider the possibility that he was kidding (or testing) the Fox crews in the production meetings when he said he was fired. Yet the announcers repeated it uncritically and unquestioningly. It's clear that even if Gruden were kidding, these guys didn't catch on. They were fuzzy about the details of the biggest story in the NFL just three and a half years ago. I can't picture any network's A team serving up this regurgitated hash, but the G team plated it right up. If Gruden can tell that story with a straight face, he ought to go into politics. On second thought, maybe he shouldn't! Ar ar.

Thanks for giving so little

Coaches at college football powers have long made it a point to tell high school recruits: You sign with our school, you'll get to play on national TV. Getting on television is so important that smaller conferences -- including the MAC, WAC and Conference USA -- are playing games on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays just so ESPN can spackle the holes in its program schedule with the likes of Bowling Green and Boise State. TV exposure gives college players more opportunities to attract the NFL's attention (see: Ben Roethlisberger). But even kids with neither hopes nor dreams of going pro still get pumped up at the prospect of playing in front of (theoretically, at least) the whole country. Everyone wants to perform on the big stage.

It's the same way in the NFL. The fact that the players are already in the pros, have already "made it," doesn't make the lights of national TV any less bright or alluring. Earlier this year, when Jacksonville beat Cincinnati in a Sunday night nail-biter, Bengals receiver Chad Johnson was inconsolable. Voice cracking and tears running down his cheeks, he said in the locker room afterward, "This is the reason we don't get Sunday (night), Monday night games." Johnson's team had botched its chance to make a statement in prime time, and he was so torn up over it he could barely speak.

Every player wants to be in the nationally televised games. If you're really good (or if the networks were hoping you'd be), you play on Monday night, or in the featured doubleheader game. But Sunday night is good exposure, too, because it's the only game on. It's the same with the occasional Thursday night or Saturday afternoon game. And, of course, Thanksgiving.

If there's one advantage to being a member of the Detroit Lions as opposed to, say, the Arizona Cardinals or Cleveland Browns, it's that you are assured of playing at least one game a year on national TV: on Thanksgiving Day. What's more, you'll get to play that game at home, because the NFL traditionally schedules the Thanksgiving games in Detroit and Dallas. Regardless of whether the Lions are any good, you know that football fans around the country will be eagerly tuning in so they can tune out the relatives they have come hundreds of miles to see for that one day. If the Lions are going to be motivated to play their best for one game a year, it'll be on Thanksgiving.

Notice I said "if."

Detroit lost this year's Thanksgiving Classic to the Atlanta Falcons, 27-7, and as we're all fond of saying, the score wasn't nearly that close. The Lions didn't just lose to the Falcons on Thursday; they humiliated themselves. And they didn't just look like a bad football team; they demonstrated a level of dysfunction that left viewers startled.

Most egregious was the quarterback situation. The Lions' starting QB Thursday was fourth-year player Joey Harrington, who has long been a whipping boy in Detroit but who now is looking more like something out of classical tragedy with each passing week. Harrington began the 2005 season as the starter only because Jeff Garcia, whom everybody knew had been brought to Detroit to take the job away, broke his leg in the preseason. As soon as Garcia was healthy, Harrington was benched. A couple weeks ago, Garcia got hurt again -- because that's what 35-year-old journeyman quarterbacks do -- so Harrington was back as the starter. Got it? Don't get too comfortable.

On their first two plays from scrimmage, the Lions gained two first downs. On the third play, Harrington "threw an interception." We say it that way because that's how it shows up on the stat sheet. What happened on the field, however, was that his receiver, Roy Williams, fell down while running his route and thus wasn't in place to catch the ball. On the first play of the Lions' next possession, Harrington hit tight end Marcus Pollard right in the numbers, and he dropped the ball. A few plays later, Shawn Bryson fumbled. On the Lions' fourth series, Harrington's protection broke down completely, and he was sacked on two straight plays.

At this point it was late in the second quarter, and Atlanta was up 17-0. The Lions' offensive line was letting Falcons rushers hit Harrington on play after play, the receivers were dropping passes, the Detroit running game was going nowhere, the crowd was booing. And Lions coach Steve Mariucci pulled Harrington and sent in Garcia.

Immediately, the questions: If Garcia was healthy enough to play in the second quarter, why didn't Mariucci just start him? And why, as Fox reported, did the Detroit coaches wait until after Garcia came in to urge their receivers to step up their game? Because the entire Lions team dynamic is geared toward making Harrington a scapegoat. The starting pitcher -- Harrington -- gets the loss. The reliever -- Garcia, Mariucci's guy -- comes in to stanch the bleeding. When Garcia throws an interception to a defensive back and there's no receiver within 20 yards of the ball ... hey, he's just trying to "make something happen"! About being benched, Harrington said after the game:

"I've had that cloud hovering over me for, I don't know, as long as I can remember, so when I was replaced I guess I wasn't surprised. But what am I going to do?"

He knows the score. Though Harrington didn't look that bad against the Falcons, I can accept that he might not, in fact, be a very good quarterback. But what we learned Thursday is that it doesn't even matter. All season, NFL fans had been hearing shouts and whispers about how Harrington is the problem in Detroit. Then, when we finally got a chance to watch the Lions, we saw a quarterback set up to fail, and a coach -- an organization -- willing to define failure any way it needed to in order to make it stick to Harrington. No wonder he (allegedly) doesn't have the confidence of his teammates.

The Lions were just getting warmed up.

In the third quarter, leading 17-0 and pushing for another score, the Falcons faced 3rd and 1 at the Lions' 36. Now, on 3rd and 1, it's the job of the defense to prevent the opponent from gaining that one yard. If the offense picks up that one yard, it means the defense has lost the battle on that play. Further, on the 36 yard line, on the cusp of field-goal range, it's absolutely imperative that the defense come up with a stop. So when Falcons running back T.J. Duckett burst across the line for 4 yards and a first down, how would you expect the Lions defenders to react?

The Detroit player who tackled Duckett came out of the pile with a wide grin, howling "Woo!" and doing a little look-at-me dance to commemorate the hit he'd laid on the runner. He was celebrating. After giving up 4 yards on 3rd and 1. The next play, Michael Vick hit Alge Crumpler for a 32-yard TD, and Atlanta was up 24-0.

Flash forward to the fourth quarter. The Falcons were leading 27-0 and were playing soft defense, letting the Lions move the ball but keeping them inbounds to chew up the clock. It was clear to all that Detroit would not win this game. Most of the fans had gone home. From the Atlanta 31, Garcia threw over the middle to Williams, who was streaking toward the end zone. The ball was tipped, first by Williams, then by a defender, before Williams pulled it out of the air and scored. It really was a remarkable catch -- the result of amazing concentration on Williams' part -- but all it did was make the score 27-6. How would you expect Williams to react?

Williams strutted into the end zone, sat down in the lotus position and struck a pose with some little hand gesture that I didn't understand, but then again it wasn't intended for me. He was showboating. After closing the gap to only three touchdowns with less than 10 minutes to play.

You can't get much more damning than what we saw from the Lions in this game. What can you say about an organization that hangs its quarterback out to dry -- a quarterback who, for all his flaws, clearly is most frustrated by being unable to help his team win -- at the same time it allows players to celebrate when the other team gets a first down? What can you say about an organizational culture that would leave a player thinking it's all right to celebrate being down by 21 points?

Lions fans are hoping some good comes out of the Thanksgiving debacle. Perhaps now that the nation has seen just how bad things have gotten in Detroit, Lions owner Bill Ford will reconsider the five-year contract extension he just gave general manager Matt Millen. Maybe. But maybe Millen will just decide the team needs more weapons. Like the ones he's already brought in. Or a new coach. Like the ones he's already brought in.

The Super Bowl is coming to Detroit in a couple months. Oh, the irony.

Week 12 picks

The Writers' Picks are posted early this week because of the Thanksgiving games. Thanks to last week's strongish showing, the updated standings have Down and Distance in a tie for ninth place out of 33. I am still walking around thinking I am a badasssss because I picked both Ravens over Steelers and Browns over Dolphins last week.

Vote frauds

Sportswriters, broadcasters and former Heisman Trophy winners should be making up their minds right about now on this year's recipient of the Heisman, the most coveted award in college athletics, a signature marker of gridiron excellence, and a bronze albatross that has dragged many a man's professional football prospects to the bottom of the cold, merciless sea. Under the bright lights at the Downtown Athletic Club, Heisman winners commonly declare that the day they receive the trophy is "the greatest day of my life." They usually don't add "so far." Nor should they.

This past NFL weekend gave us a matchup of two quarterbacks who have sat in the front row at the Heisman ceremony: Peyton Manning of the Colts and Carson Palmer of the Bengals. Both are now certifiable NFL superstars, but which one had the harder path to stardom? Palmer, obviously. He actually won the Heisman in 2002, which meant he would begin his pro career shrouded in the foul vapor of incipient failure. Manning, on the other hand, was the runner-up in 1997, which meant he could enter the league with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove while the vastly inferior, critically flawed player who won the Heisman had nowhere to go but down. That player: Charles Woodson, the ultimate triumph of Heisman hype over talent.

The award that I like to call the Powerade Heisman Trophy is cursed -- or, more specifically, the selection process is cursed. The curse is never more evident than when a quarterback takes home the trophy and puts it on his mantel, where he can admire it every evening when he gets home from his insurance agency, real-estate office, car dealership or work-release program. In the past 20 years, 11 quarterbacks have won the Heisman. Only Palmer and maybe Vinny Testaverde (1986) became NFL stars. Ty Detmer (1990) has enjoyed a long NFL career because he's never had to do anything but carry a clipboard and come in for two plays to kill the clock. Chris Weinke (2000) played one year as a starter and went 1-15. NFL teams didn't even consider Charlie Ward (1993) and Jason White (2003) worth a draft pick. Eric Crouch (2001) flunked out of training camp twice and washed ashore in Europe. Andre Ware (1989) and Danny Wuerffel (1996) were utter disasters. The less said about Gino Toretta (1992), the better. In this light, perhaps 2004 winner Matt Leinart was smart to stay in school another year. The NFL might forget he won the award, and the stink might blow onto his USC teammate, Reggie Bush.

Of course, as we hear every year about this time, the Heisman is not supposed to identify the brightest NFL star-in-the-making. The marketing materials make clear that the trophy goes to the "most outstanding college football player." In other words, the recipient doesn't have to be particularly good, he just has to stand out. Maybe with wicked sideburns or something. And it's college success that counts, not pro prospects. Fine, fine. But the fact that so many of these guys come out with no NFL hopes whatsoever strongly suggests that they just aren't all that good.

The college game is different from the pro game, no doubt about it. Some players who excel at quarterback in college just aren't cut out for QB success in the pros. But if those guys are great players, great athletes, they'll find a spot in the NFL. Antwaan Randle El broke every QB record Indiana could throw at him, but when he got to Pittsburgh, the Steelers decided he'd be better at receiver. And the Steelers were more than qualified to make this call, having just spent five years trying to determine whether Kordell Stewart could be a pro quarterback (answer: not really). This year's example is Matt Jones, a beast of a QB at Arkansas whom the Jacksonville Jaguars have turned into a promising wideout. Contrast their experiences with those of Crouch, whom the St. Louis Rams drafted in the third round with the intention of having him play wide receiver. Crouch pouted around the Rams' training camp for a bit, "retired" when things got rough, came back with the Packers to try to be a QB, "retired" again, and was last seen learning to play safety in NFL Europe. Kinda sad for a guy whose official Heisman-candidacy website (still online) declared him "destined for greatness."

Of late, quarterbacks win the Heisman simply by default, because they happen to be the most recognizable name on a national championship contender. (The voters, however, credit "leadership" and say he "makes his teammates better." No. QBs are leaders because they're good, not the other way around.) That's why Leinart probably won't win it this year. As good as Leinart may be, Bush is now the bigger name at USC. Further, quarterback Vince Young of No. 2 Texas is also a bigger name, so if Bush doesn't win the Heisman, Young is the next-best bet.

Palmer is the exception. Yes, he played on a title contender and was its most recognizable member, but he was also the best player on the team. Had he played at Fresno State or Minnesota or UCLA, he'd still have been a top prospect. Had Weinke or Ward played somewhere other than Florida State, you'd never have heard of them (as football players, at least; Ward is now in the NBA). Same with Toretta (Miami), Wuerffel (Florida), Crouch (Nebraska) and White (Oklahoma).

The quarterback for a college football powerhouse has to be sound, but he doesn't have to be especially good. He has the best line to keep defenders away. He has the best receivers to throw to. He has the best coaches drawing up schemes. Put me in there, I might throw you some touchdowns. This is why White's phone never rang on draft day 2004, despite all the wins he had at Oklahoma. Meanwhile, guys who had succeeded with "lesser" teams -- Eli Manning (Mississippi), Philip Rivers (N.C. State), Ben Roethlisberger (Miami of Ohio) -- were drafted in the first round. Matt Cassel, the backup to Palmer and then Leinart at USC, was drafted after throwing fewer than 40 passes in college, while White stayed home. Devastating.

What about Ware (Houston) and Detmer (Brigham Young)? Detmer teaches us the value of having a schedule full of cupcakes. He threw for thousands of yards and dozens of touchdowns in the WAC back when the WAC was whack. BYU ran up the score on chumps like New Mexico and Utah State. In the Holiday Bowl, after Detmer had taken home the Heisman, BYU was brutally exposed and royally pounded by Texas A&M, 65-14. Ware, meanwhile, had an undeniably great year in 1989 playing in a run-and-shoot offense. He was drafted by the Lions, who at the time were also playing the run-and-shoot, but he couldn't crack the starting lineup. Just as well: The run-and-shoot has yet to work in the NFL. (Not saying it can't!)

When you look at the results of the Heisman voting, you're peeking into an insane parallel football universe. In that topsy-turvy, head-spinning dimension, the 2001 NFL draft is marked by two of the biggest scouting blunders of all time -- front-office boners of epic proportions. That year, the Chargers traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Falcons, who used it on Michael Vick. The Chargers then took Drew Brees with the first pick in the second round. Which quarterback was the better choice? Trick question: neither! The right choice, of course, was Weinke, and both teams left him on the board for Carolina to snap up. No wonder the Panthers have been to the Super Bowl since then, while the Chargers and Falcons have not, hmm?

This is how it works in the Heisman Underverse. Voters beware! Those who do not learn from history (Crouch) are doomed to repeat it (White).

Week 11 recap

With the byes now behind us, we're back to 16 games per week, which means we can judge performance in the picks with the same scale we use to judge a team's performance in the regular season:

• 16-0: impossible
• 15-1: unbelievable
• 14-2: improbable
• 13-3: remarkable
• 12-4: commendable
• 11-5: admirable
• 10-6: acceptable
• 9-7 and below: wait till next week

For the week, Down and Distance was an admirable 11-5, thanks to two gut-feeling calls: Baltimore over Pittsburgh and Cleveland over Miami. So I feel a little better after last week's wipeout. A couple QB notes before we get rolling: Though Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer are popping eyes all over the place with their big fat numbers, the MVP discussion should start with Tom Brady. Sunday's game wasn't his best, obviously, but he's all his team has left, and the Patriots are still 6-4. And I'll say this again: Ben Roethlisberger should be considered for the simple reason that the Steelers can't accomplish anything with anyone else at QB.

CORRECT PICKS
New England over New Orleans: Tom Brady and Heath Evans and not much else ... and yet it was still more than the Saints could handle. This one's for the ol' Navy coach. Unbelievably, it took the Patriots 11 weeks to win back-to-back games.

Baltimore over Pittsburgh: How could anyone pick 2-7 Baltimore to beat 7-2 Pittsburgh? I explained the reasoning last week, and the game played out almost exactly as expected.

Cleveland over Miami: Miami's crummy on the road. Does anyone need more of an explanation? Interesting move in this game: Halfway through the second quarter, with the Browns shutting down the Dolphins, Cleveland coach Romeo Crennel decided that what his team really needed was a quarterback controversy.

Jacksonville over Tennessee: The Jaguars need to quit beating crappy teams by a touchdown or less.

Dallas over Detroit: Billy Cundiff, the only Drake alumnus in the NFL, returned to the Cowboys after an injury that kept him out for the first 10 weeks of the year (and also necessitated the gruesome Jose Cortez experiment). Cundiff hit a team-record 56-yard field goal as the Cowboys cruised. Two bits, four bits, eight bits, a dollar / All for the Bulldogs, stand up and holler. Arf!

New York Giants over Philadelphia: Tom Coughlin must be trying to teach some kind of larger life lesson by continuing to give Brandon Jacobs the ball in goal-line situations. He certainly can't be doing it to get touchdowns. Last week the Eagles were all but finished. This week, they're just finished. And Terrell Owens wouldn't have made a difference.

Denver over New York Jets: Best Bet. Duh.

San Diego over Buffalo: Duh II. Chargers are hoping Antonio Gates wasn't seriously injured in the third quarter when his team was already leading by four touchdowns. You gotta keep playing hard, but ouch.

Indianapolis over Cincinnati: The most entertaining game of the year, hands down. Remember all that talk about the Colts' anemic offense? Or, for that matter, the Colts' impenetrable defense? Seems so very long ago. For a team that got 37 points scored on them, the Colts can hold their heads up: The burden was all on them to win their first "real" test, and they did. And for a team that got 45 points scored on them, the Bengals can hold their striped heads up, too: Indy looked like it was about to run away with this one, and Cincy reeled 'em back in.

Seattle over San Francisco: Losses by both Carolina and Atlanta in the early games made this a must-win for Seattle. If the Seahawks are going to make a Super Bowl run, they're going to need home-field advantage. Why? Because when they go on the road, they do things like nearly lose to San Francisco.

Kansas City over Houston: Word up. Larry Johnson sets the Chiefs' single-game rushing record, and we hear the awesome '80s name Barry Word for probably the last time. Are the Texans dispirited? Halfway through the second quarter, Houston WR Andre Johnson fumbled when Chiefs safety Greg Wesley popped him after a 5-yard gain. Neither Johnson nor any other Texan tried to get the ball back. Yeah, they're dispirited. A half-empty stadium can't help, either. The Los Angeles Texans? On an entirely different matter: In the fourth quarter, the ESPN broadcast team started making poop jokes. I didn't need to know that Paul Maguire farts when he eats chili. I really, really didn't.

INCORRECT PICKS
St. Louis over Arizona: Can't feel bad about missing this one. The Cardinals win at random, and you'll never get anywhere by picking them. Kurt Warner, playing his first game in St, Louis since the Rams ran him off, played his best game anywhere since the Rams ran him off. The 3-7 Cardinals have found their quarterback of the future, I guess. The Rams, whose usual uniforms are among the NFL's sharpest, came out in a regrettable all-blue ensemble Sunday. They looked like a WAC team, and they played like one.

Carolina over Chicago: Well, the Panthers clearly can't win tough games on the road, especially when their quarterback keeps turning it over. They really needed this one, but they couldn't deliver. Fortunately, Atlanta also lost.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay: Well, the Falcons clearly can't win tough games at home, especially when their quarterback keeps turning it over. They really needed this one, but they couldn't deliver. Fortunately, Carolina also lost.

Washington over Oakland: I think the Redskins saw Norv Turner on the field and lost by reflex. After last week's shootout in Tampa, I was wondering when we were next going to see the Official Final Score of the Washington Redskins. And there it is: Opponent 16, Redskins 13.

Green Bay over Minnesota: The Vikings took another step in their inspired quest to nail down the 16th pick in the 2006 draft. The Packers' defense helped out by being utterly unable to tackle, cover kicks, cover receivers short, cover receivers long or defend even uncatchable passes without grabbing on like a pervert on an escalator. The Packers' offense helped out by abandoning the run, dropping the ball when they did run and (over- or under-)throwing downfield on every play, triple coverage be damned. Will Brett Favre come back next year? Why would he want to? Why would the Packers want him to?

THIS WEEK: 11-5
SEASON: 105-55

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POW-R-'ANKINGS FOR WEEK 11
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet, Ethernet, ARPANET, Aqua Net or any other -net. Honed by master mathematicians, lauded by football enthusiasts, the formula behind them predicted 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners, and 14 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the POW-R-'ANKINGS system. Get it? Do you read me? Are you ready to party, Toronto?) Unlike with other, lesser ranking systems, no opinion is involved. None. It's hard-core science screaming to be heard in a parlor full of charlatans. Poseurs! Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: W11 = This week's ranking. W10 = Last week's ranking. PWR = POW-R centigrade score)

W11	W10	TEAM	PWR		W11	W10	TEAM	PWR
1	1	Colts	100.00		17	18	Raiders	47.42
2	7	Bears	81.96		18	24	Browns	45.20
3	8	Broncos	81.78		19	17	Eagles	43.74
4	4	Giants	81.54		20	22	Patriots	43.09
5	9	Chargers	79.58		21	20	Lions	40.45
6	3	Steelers	78.66		22	23	Rams	38.30
7	5	Seahawks	78.11		23	19	Dolphins	37.13
8	6	Panthers	76.08		24	25	Titans	32.46
9	2	Bengals	74.37		25	26	Cardinals	31.53
10	10	Cowboys	73.00		26	21	Bills	27.58
11	11	Jaguars	66.76		27	27	Vikings	24.99
12	12	Falcons	63.37		28	30	Ravens	17.86
13	16	Chiefs	60.60		29	29	Saints	14.19
14	13	Bucs	59.67		30	28	Jets	6.46
15	14	Packers	56.96		31	32	49ers	4.91
16	15	Redskins	50.65		32	31	Texans	0.00

Team eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Redskins. Teams previously eliminated: Texans, Titans, Packers, Saints, 49ers, Jets, Bills, Ravens, Browns, Vikings, Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders, Lions, Eagles, Rams.

Too cool for school

The Nick Saban I know probably isn't locked in his office, peeking out from under his tinfoil hat and questioning whether he was right to leave his throne at Louisiana State University to buckle himself into the captain's chair of the rudderless Miami Dolphins. (And since you asked: No, I don't know Nick Saban.)

Truth is, it will be a while before anyone can judge whether Saban made the right choice. Through nine games, his Dolphins are 3-6, including upset victories over the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers. The defense appears steady, and the running game seems to be developing. But the passing game is unpredictable, and not in a Brett Favre, risk-taking-gunslinger way. More like a whoops-I-forgot-to-set-the-emergency-brake-and-now-where-do-you-suppose-it's-gonna-go way. When Gus Frerotte heaves the ball up, you just kind of hold your breath and hope it gets caught by someone wearing the same color shirt. All we can say with confidence about Saban's new start in Miami is that he throws a mean press conference. Whenever a reporter starts in with the stupid questions -- like, "How is going today, Coach?" -- Saban puts on this look like someone farted in church. Uncomfortable.

As Saban transitions from college head coach to NFL head coach, Dolphins fans are hoping he makes out like Jimmy Johnson with the Cowboys. Like Saban, Johnson won a national championship in college before taking his act to the NFL. Johnson endured a tough first season in Dallas, improved dramatically in Years 2 and 3 and won the Super Bowl in Year 4. Those same Dolphins fans, however, are also well aware that Saban could follow the lead of Steve Spurrier. Like Saban, Spurrier won a national championship in college before taking his act to the NFL. Spurrier enjoyed a fairly successful first season in Washington, tumbled into an open grave in Year 2 and was gone by Year 3.

After nine games, Johnson was 1-8; Spurrier, 4-5. Discuss.

Spurrier. Glad I mentioned him, because this past weekend The Cautionary Tale of Steven Orr Spurrier came full circle. Descending briefly into the boozy world of college football, we see that last Saturday Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks upset the 12th-ranked Florida Gators, for whom Spurrier won the Heisman Trophy in 1966 as a player and the mythical national championship in 1996 as the head coach. The game knocked Florida out of contention for the Southeastern Conference title and signaled that the Gamecocks will hereafter be part of the equation in the SEC East.

The Carolina* victory also affirms two things related to Spurrier. One is that Florida's decision not to rehire him a year ago will loom larger and larger in Gainesville. (According to lore, when Spurrier discussed the job with the Florida brass, he was invited to submit a resume. He allegedly responded by telling the Florida AD to stick his head out into the hall and look at the trophy case. If it's not true, it should be.) The second is that the college game is where Spurrier belongs, because he clearly had no business in the NFL.

Having done just about everything a coach can do in college, Spurrier left Florida abruptly after the 2001 season, put on his prettiest outfit and let it be known he was ready for NFL teams to come courtin'. There was every reason to expect they would. He'd had success at every stop -- first with the USFL's Tampa Bay Bandits (named in honor of co-owner Burt Reynolds), where he went 35-19 in three seasons and made the playoffs twice; then with the eternally sorry Duke Blue Devils, whom he turned into ACC champions (remember, we're talking about football here); and finally at his alma mater.

Washington Redskins owner Dan Snyder had been writing Spurrier's name over and over on the cover of his Trapper Keeper since he bought the team. So when Spurrier finally broke up with the Gators, Snyder was at his locker the next day with an enormous contract. Marty Schottenheimer, whom Snyder had brought home to meet Mom and Dad a year earlier, got the heave-ho. (Chuckling to himself and millions of dollars richer, Marty soon accepted San Diego's invitation to the Sadie Hawkins Dance. And that's as far as that analogy will stretch.)

In Washington, Spurrier was unable to replicate the success he'd had at Florida, in part because he tried to replicate the success he'd had at Florida -- meaning, installing the exact same offense and putting it in the hands of the exact same players, including peashooter QBs Danny Wuerffel and Shane Matthews and lousy WRs Taylor Jacobs and Chris Doering. After two seasons and a 12-20 record, Spurrier resigned and disappeared into America's golf underbelly before resurfacing in South Carolina. Snyder, meanwhile, pulled the last rabbit out of the hat: Joe Gibbs.

(Spurrier's tenure in D.C. is a sore spot in our household. My wife, an Iowa State alumna, resents Spurrier for cutting former Cyclones QB Sage Rosenfels, whom Schottenheimer had drafted. ["He has such a big heart," Tracy says.] Rosenfels now backs up the human spray-bottle Frerotte in Miami; if he's cut again, she can hate Saban, too.)

So Saban is best advised to emulate Johnson rather than Spurrier. Of course, Johnson's run of success began with conning the Minnesota Vikings into trading away their future for Herschel Walker. Saban doesn't have that option with his Heisman-winning running back. A player is limited to one franchise-destroying trade in a career, and Ricky Williams already had his.

Spurrier's experience in the NFL looms as much more common than Johnson's. Should Saban fail, he'd be just the latest college coach to slam into the rocks of the pro game. Butch Davis left Cleveland a very unhappy man. The best you can say about Dennis Erickson is that he was mediocre (and that what happened in San Francisco last year wasn't his fault). Frank Kush turned Arizona State into a national power before his career died in a bean field somewhere between Baltimore and Indianapolis. Spurrier's predecessor at South Carolina, Lou Holtz, was so traumatized by his one season with the New York Jets, which he didn't even finish, that he never seriously considered another pro job, even after winning the national title at Notre Dame.

The allure of the NFL is understandable: the game's biggest stage, the best athletes, the most money. The coach doesn't have to find anyone to write his players' papers, and he can buy them shoes or a bus ticket (HA HA HA!) without worrying about putting his program on probation. Every coach who scores big in NCAA Division I-A dreams that he can be the next Jimmy Johnson, or maybe the next Barry Switzer, who Walter Mitty'd his way to a Super Bowl title with Johnson's players. Or at least the next John Robinson, who left Southern Cal for the Los Angeles Rams and made the playoffs in six of his first seven years there. But those dudes are the exceptions.

Saban had coached in the NFL as an assistant to Bill Belichick before dropping down to the college level to get head coaching experience. I can understand why he would grab at this chance to be The Man in the pros. Just as I'll understand when Charlie Weis leaves Notre Dame and his absurd 10-year contract when the right NFL job opens up. What I don't get is why Pete Carroll would ever consider returning to the NFL. Carroll was a middling NFL coach who had the distinction of heading the Patriots in the years after Bill Parcells took them to the Super Bowl and before Belichick took them to the Super Bowl. Now he's at Southern Cal, where he is pursuing his third straight national title and is the toast of Los Angeles. He'd give that up for what? A chance to lead the Houston Texans to an 8-8 season? To earn a wildcard berth with the Buffalo Bills? Yeah, whatever. I can't save a fool from his fool self.

While some successful college coaches move up to the NFL and get their heads cut off, some unsuccessful NFL head coaches drop down to college and prosper, because that's where their talents are the best fit. Look at Spurrier. Look at Al Groh, a disappointment as Parcells' successor with the Jets who is now thriving at Virginia. Chan Gailey -- replaced by Dave Campo in Dallas -- won a bowl game last year at Georgia Tech. Gene Stallings won a national title at Alabama after crapping out with the Cardinals. Saban's predecessor at Miami, Dave Wannstedt, wasn't an abject failure in the pros, but he wasn't exactly a roaring success, either (and Dolphins fans must still be wondering how exactly he wound up as their coach). Now he's at his own alma mater, Pitt, trying to lead a resurgence.

All of which brings us back to Nick Saban, who is not sitting there in his office, not drumming his fingers, not rocking in the corner consumed by doubt. It was a big step to leave LSU -- but one whose only real risk is to the ego. Should he succeed, he'll have himself a career in the NFL. Should he fail, he'll have his pick of college jobs whenever he wants to go back. And if I know Nick Saban, I know what's in store for him!

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* I love that the South Carolina athletics department stakes as big a claim to the word "Carolina" as the university in Chapel Hill. For that matter, I also love that the University of South Carolina has no problems referring to itself as "USC."