Week 17: And that's a wrap

So here we are, another regular season in the books. I went a respectable 10-6 in my picks for Week 17, and finished the year at 154-102, pretty much in the middle of the pack. Well, toward the bottom half of the middle of the pack, really. On the other hand, I finished with the highest score in our survivor pool. You had to pick a team to win each week, but you could only use each team once. If you picked incorrectly, your score went back to 0. I finished with 7. My survivor picks, by week:

WK	PICK	OPPONENT	RESULT	TOTAL
1	Seattle	Detroit	W, 9-6	1
2	Cincinnati	Cleveland	W, 34-17	2
3	Philadelphia	San Francisco	W, 38-24	3
4	Atlanta	Arizona	W, 32-10	4
5	Chicago	Buffalo	W, 40-7	5
6	Washington	Tennessee	L, 22-25	0
7	Jacksonville	Houston	L, 7-27	0
8	N. Y. Giants	Tampa Bay	W, 17-3	1
9	San Diego	Cleveland	W, 32-25	2
10	Detroit	San Francisco	L, 13-19	0
11	Kansas City	Oakland	W, 17-13	1
12	Indianapolis	Philadelphia	W, 45-21	2
13	New Orleans	San Francisco	W, 34-10	3
14	Tennessee	Houston	W, 26-20	4
15	Baltimore	Cleveland	W, 27-17	5
16	New England	Jacksonville	W, 24-21	6
17	N.Y. Jets	Oakland	W, 23-3	7

I picked five teams to both win and lose: Detroit, Philadelphia, Jacksonville and Tennessee. I was right both times only with Philly and the Titans. I have no idea what that means.

CORRECT PICKS
N.Y. Jets 23, Oakland 3: Two AFC teams had the chance to claim wildcard spots simply by winning on Sunday. Both were playing at home, and both were going up against Bay Area All-World Chumps. Denver couldn't take care of business against the 49ers. But the Jets, facing the chumpiest of all chumps, got it done with baseball bats to the knees. Man, could anyone have predicted 10 weeks ago that the Jets would beat out all the other strong AFC contenders for a wildcard spot? I'm sure some reedy football blogger did.

St. Louis 41, Minnesota 21: What else is there to say? Minnesota was once 4-2, with victories over Washington, Carolina and Seattle, all playoff teams in 2005, and a close loss to Chicago. We've since learned that Washington, Carolina and Seattle aren't particularly good this year, and Chicago might be a mirage, too. Still, you could say the Vikes have "come a long way" since then. A team that hasn't gone anywhere, on the other hand, is the Rams. They finished the 2006 season just as they started it: with a win over a team that wasn't nearly as good as it had been made out to be in the preseason. After that opening victory over the Broncos, St. Louis' season consisted of two three-game win streaks against middling-to-lousy teams (Cardinals-Lions-Packers and Raiders-Redskins-Vikings) and, in between, a whole lot of losses to everybody else.

Pittsburgh 23, Cincinnati 17: The beauty of this game was that the Bengals couldn't lock up a playoff spot just by winning. They had to win, and then hope for Kansas City to beat Jacksonville, which wasn't going to be easy, and for San Francisco to win at Denver, which was so remote a possibility as to be ridiculous. Every year you see teams in this situation go out and win their own game, only to watch, dejected, as the teams they need to come through end up losing. But in a fun twist, the Bengals choked, at home, against a division rival that had nothing to play for, then went into the locker room and watched as K.C. held off Jacksonville and the 49ers blew everyone's mind by knocking off the Broncos. And so the Bengals take off the vertical black-and-orange stripes for another offseason and put on the horizontal black-and-white ones.

New England 40, Tennessee 23: Last season, the Patriots went into the final game aware that if they lost, they'd be the No. 4 seed in the playoffs rather than the No. 3. If the seeding had held up, that would have meant games against the paper-tiger Jaguars and the hollow Colts rather than the red-hot Steelers and the Broncos, the one team Bill Belichick can't seem to beat. I'm not saying they took a dive in that game, but they did start Matt Cassel, and they sent out ancient quarterback Doug Flutie to drop-kick a PAT just for giggles. This season, as the Patriots went into the final game, it wasn't clear which seed would be better for them, as the wildcards would be in doubt until Denver played later in the day. So the Patriots went ahead and played to win, starting Tom Brady and all those guys. However, that didn't stop them from giving another Reagan-era QB the opportunity to mess around with history: They sent in Vinny Testaverde (d.o.b. 11/13/1963) to throw a touchdown with less than 2 minutes left, thus giving him a TD pass in 20 straight seasons. Titans fans, of course, claim this was excessive and poor sportsmanship because New England was already up by 10, but you know what? Fuck 'em. They've spent the entire season telling us how Vince Young is this epochal game-breaker who can take a nothing play and suddenly make it all seem worthwhile. Well, then I don't blame the Pats for trying to extend the lead to three scores.

Kansas City 35, Jacksonville 30: Instead of just calling the game as it unfolds in front of them, some announcers insist on concocting "story lines" and flogging them repeatedly regardless of what's going on down on the grass. (This was why you had Chris Collinsworth on NFL Network cooing in clueless awe Saturday as Eli Manning found the occasional acorn against one of the league's worst pass defenses.) In the Jaguars-Chiefs game, CBS's Gus Johnson decided in the third quarter that the story line was going to be Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio's ("gutsy") decision to bench quarterback David Garrard for third-stringer Quinn Gray. Don't get me wrong: Gray played well. But that doesn't excuse Johnson's full-throated exclamation, "WHERE IS BARBRA STREISAND, BECAUSE I THINK A STAR HAS BEEN BORN!" First of all, it's interesting that Johnson would reference the Streisand remake of A Star Is Born rather than the clearly superior and far more enduring Judy Garland version. Of course, neither would have been the sort of reference you'd expect your typical NFL viewer to appreciate, even if they understood it, and I'm sure Steve Tasker was getting pretty fidgety next to Johnson in the booth. Regardless, Johnson, who confessed that he has long been a Quinn Gray fan, banged this drum for the rest of the game. Which means he had no psychic space left over to discuss how Gray fits into Jacksonville's abysmal QB management. Remember, Del Rio let it be known earlier in the year that he preferred Garrard to Byron Leftwich, based on Garrard's "production" (that is, wins that occurred on Garrard's watch, regardless of his role in them). Pretty soon, though, the rest of the league had assembled a book on Garrard and began taking him apart piece by piece (culminating in the disaster in Nashville). So Del Rio tossed Garrard overboard and ran Gray out there against K.C. Now what had been a run-of-the-mill, two-way QB controversy is now a three-way. Was it the right move to go to Gray? I'm not saying it wasn't. But Gus Johnson wasn't saying anything except that Quinn Gray is the CUTEST boy in the WHOLE SCHOOL. In a secondary story, Kansas City won and advanced to the playoffs.

Houston 14, Cleveland 6: Coming into the weekend, this was the only game in which both teams had already been eliminated from playoff contention, so you can imagine why CBS broadcast it to about as close to zero percent of the country as it could without violating the terms of its contract. Each team's schedule each year is determined by formula and includes games against the other teams in the conference who finished in the same place in their divisions. That means first-place teams play first-place teams and, for the purposes of our discussion here, last-place teams play last-place teams. The Browns, playing in the stacked AFC North, and the Texans, playing in the suddenly stacked AFC South, will probably get quite familiar with each other in the coming years.

San Diego 27, Arizona 20
Baltimore 19, Buffalo 7
Imagine that: Two teams with the top playoff seeds still playing to win on the last weekend of the season. The Chargers, who had already clinched a first-round bye but needed to stay ahead of the Ravens for home field, saw both Philip Rivers and LaDanian Tomlinson leave the game with injuries. Some idiot somewhere will say one or both shouldn't have played -- it was the Cardinals, after all. But playing them and getting them dinged is still better than letting them sit for this game, then letting them sit for two more weeks while their fire dies out, then getting humiliated in the playoffs. (For more, see the Carolina-New Orleans game below.) In Baltimore, meanwhile, don't let that game-clinching interception by Samari Rolle fool you. He smelled of toast for most of the game, and the Colts will be throwing at him all day in the divisional round of the playoffs. Assuming the Colts make it that far, which may be assuming a lot.

Indianapolis 27, Miami 22: Last year the Colts finally won home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, only to spit up all over themselves in the first game. So this year it's back to the wildcard round with them. This game was too close for too long for Indianapolis fans to feel good about it (Cleo Lemon! Cleo Lemon!), but for once we got through Week 17 without having to endure the Jim Sorgi Explosion.

Philadelphia 24, Atlanta 17: OK, when a team sends out its third-string quarterback against you? And that quarterback didn't even know he was going to play until the game had already started? And then that QB throws three TD passes to backup receivers? And you lose the game? Yeah, that's going to cost you.

INCORRECT PICKS
N.Y. Giants 34, Washington 28: One moron in the stands for Saturday's game held up a sign that proclaimed of Tiki Barber, who was playing the final regular season game of his career, "You will be missed but not forgotten." Huh? By definition, if you are missed, you are not forgotten, and if you are forgotten, you cannot be missed. Some dumbass with a Magic Marker thinks he's a poet, and NFL Network puts him on national television. OK, it was great to see Barber have such a monster performance (23 rushes, 234 yards, 3 TDs) in his final regular season game, but as I watched him run around and over the Keystone Skins, I could already hear Sports Illustrated's designated Tiki-fluffer, Peter King, chiseling this game into a cornerstone of his one-man campaign to sneak Barber into the Hall of Fame. Whenever King makes his case, which is often, he comes at it from a different direction, but each time, it comes down to this: Barber plays in New York, and he plays well, therefore he deserves to be in Canton. Fine, Pete. Barber gets into the Hall when Ricky Watters, who has more yards and more touchdowns in just as many seasons, plus a Super Bowl ring, gets in. Actually, no, scratch that. I'd take Watters before I'd take Barber. Why? Because my standard for the Hall of Fame is that when you walk away from the game, you do it with nothing to prove. Barber is retiring as the 17th-leading rusher in NFL history. You have to respect that. And he's leaving while he's still in top form and still has his health. You really have to respect that. He's seen Jerome Bettis essentially crippled at age 36 and has decided that's not for him. But Bettis is going into the Hall because he gave it everything he had. Even if he hadn't earned a Super Bowl ring, he'd still go in, because he left it all out there on the field. Two more good seasons could get Barber to No. 7 on the all-time rushing list, and three more could get him to No. 4. If he wants to be in the Hall as the equal of Emmitt and Sweetness and Barry Sanders, he needs to prove he's their equal on the field. Hey, what about Barry Sanders? Didn't he retire before he was "done," too? Yes, but he did so as the No. 2 rusher, and it was clear that with just one more average season, he would be No. 1. Everyone knew it; everyone acknowledged it. Sanders had nothing left to prove. A Super Bowl ring? With Detroit? It was never gonna happen, and everyone knew and acknowledged that, too. But the Giants have every opportunity in the next few years to compete for a ring, provided a few characters get their heads screwed on right. Barber is passing on the opportunity. Again, he's doing it for his health, and there is nothing objectionable about that. But a Hall of Famer doesn't just give up on the Super Bowl dream. If he doesn't have the ring, he has to be dragged off the field, completely used up. Think Dan Marino. Think Warren Moon. Think Bettis, who got his championship only after he had made the decision to retire. So no, while we all wish Barber well, he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame. Now, let's talk about the actual game: There was nothing here to make you think the Giants are going anywhere but down in flames in the playoffs. Moving on ...

Seattle 23, Tampa Bay 7: While the meek were inheriting the Earth in Dallas and Denver, they were up to their same, sad old tricks down in Tampa. You just knew that at least one playoff contender would trip over a doormat this week, and I picked the Bucs with the assumption that Seattle was pretty much the worst the NFC had to offer. The only difference between Seattle and an 8-8 team is ... well, a 23-7 victory over Tampa Bay.

Detroit 39, Dallas 31: If I'm Lions general manager Matt Millen, I'm up in my luxury box wearing my big clown coat and thundering in impotent rage that my team went and won this game, thus depriving me of the chance to squander the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft. Since Millen took over the Lions in 2001, he's pissed away the No. 2 overall pick (Collarbone Rogers in 2003) and the No. 3 overall pick (Joey Harrington, who lives on in Honolulu blue here, in 2002), but never has he had the chance to work his magic with the No. 1 (unless he's advising the Texans on the side). Lions fans who had dreamed that Brady Quinn or some kind of top-flight quarterback would be coming to Detroit can find solace in knowing that Millen would have done something weird with the top pick anyway.

San Francisco 26, Denver 23 (OT): Denver choked away a playoff spot, but within hours, it didn't seem like such a big deal anymore.

Carolina 31, New Orleans 21: It was a shame to see the Saints pull their starters out of the game before the first quarter had even ended. They'd had such a fantastic run in 2006, and it was a pity that their season should end that way. Yes, they'll host a playoff game at the Superdome in two weeks. But one thing we've learned about Week 17 in the past few years is: Teams that lack recent playoff success must play to win in the final game of the season, especially if they have a first-round bye. Three weeks is too long for most players to go without seeing any meaningful action. They lose focus, they aren't as sharp. They puff themselves up, and then when it's go time, they're flat. Want examples? Chicago, 2005 (threw final game, lost at home in playoffs). Indianapolis, 2005 (threw final two games, lost at home in playoffs). Pittsburgh, 2004 (tried to throw final game, barely beat Jets at home in playoffs, then lost at home). Compare these with the 2003 and 2004 Patriots, who absolutely killed their final opponents, and last year's Steelers, who had been playing full-tilt for six weeks before ass-kicking the Colts and Broncos en route to the Super Bowl. Sometimes you can throw your last game and succeed -- but only if you've been to the elite level before. The Saints haven't been anywhere in years. When they're getting rolled by the Eagles in two weeks, I'll be smoking a fat cigar and laffing my fatter ass off.

Green Bay 26, Chicago 7: Then there's the Chicago Bears. Whereas the Saints' starters played for only a quarter, but played well, the Bears starters played for a full half, and looked horrible. The offense is back where it was in 2005, the defense has fallen apart, even Devin Hester is gimpy. If Rex Grossman is looking for consolation after going 2-of-12 for 33 yards, no TDs and 3 interceptions, it's that Brian Griese wasn't all that better (5-of-15, 124 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) and Kyle Orton is still the No. 3, so it's not like they've got Vince Young ready to take his job away. The Packers, meanwhile, played like a team fighting for its playoff life. At about 2:30 p.m. ET, the DirecTV Sunday Snap channel put up a graphic that declared: "Green Bay can clinch a wildcard berth with a win + ARI win + DET win + MIA win + MIN win + SF win + CAR loss + HOU loss + TB loss." So the Packers' hopes rested on the outcome of nine games involving 18 teams, or more than half the league. Alas, Detroit, San Francisco and Tampa Bay did their part, but Arizona, Miami, Minnesota, Carolina and Houston did not. By game time, the Packers had nothing to play for, although I guess there was something about this being an emotional game for their quarterback. I didn't catch all of it. Like, he's from Chicago, maybe? Or was close friends with Gerald Ford? Whatever it was, he was all choked up afterwards.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 154-102 (60.2%)
(2005 for the season: 172-84)

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FINAL KA-POWER RANKINGS FOR 2006
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS have wrapped up their second year with Baltimore overtaking Chicago at the wire. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: FIN = final ranking. W16 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score. P? = team in playoffs?)

FIN	W16	TEAM	PWR	REC.	P?
1	2	Ravens	100.00	13-3	Y
2	1	Bears	96.32	13-3	Y
3	4	Patriots	93.95	12-4	Y
4	3	Chargers	93.92	14-2	Y
5	5	Jaguars	79.42	8-8
6	6	Saints	75.01	10-6	Y
7	7	Cowboys	70.52	9-7	Y
8	8	Eagles	70.46	10-6	Y
9	9	Colts	68.58	12-4	Y
10	10	Bengals	64.36	8-8
11	11	Steelers	63.90	8-8
12	t14	Jets	60.16	10-6	Y
13	13	Chiefs	58.56	9-7	Y
14	12	Broncos	58.18	9-7
15	17	Seahawks	52.98	9-7	Y
16	16	Giants	52.83	8-8	Y
17	t14	Bills	51.46	7-9
18	20	Rams	51.34	8-8
19	18	Dolphins	47.42	6-10
20	21	Falcons	44.81	7-9
21	22	Panthers	44.35	8-8
22	19	Vikings	42.18	6-10
23	26	Packers	38.27	8-8
24	24	Redskins	37.68	5-11
25	23	Titans	37.03	8-8
26	25	Cardinals	36.74	5-11
27	27	Lions	32.49	3-13
28	28	Texans	28.49	6-10
29	29	49ers	27.80	7-9
30	30	Browns	21.47	6-10
31	31	Bucs	12.65	4-12
32	32	Raiders	0.00	2-14

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): None. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Saints.

Teams still eligible for Super Bowl championship consideration: Chargers, Ravens, Bears, Colts, Patriots.

Notes about the final rankings
Be aware that the KA-POWER RANKINGS system considers the year in totality, just as the NFL playoff system does. The Tennessee Titans, for example, weren't just handed a playoff spot because they played so well in the second half of the season. They started 0-5; that's what's keeping them home in January -- and what's keeping them at No. 25 in these rankings. (Because you were wondering, going just on the final 11 games of the season, the Titans would rank at No. 15 with a centigrade score of 54.14. Still pretty low for an 8-3 team, huh? Well, consider: Those eight wins came by 3, 6, 18, 3, 3, 6, 7 and 1 points, for a total of 47. The three losses were by 30, 1, and 17 points, for a total of 48. Tennessee's resurgence was one of this year's remarkable stories, but they could have easily gone 6-10, 5-11, even 4-12.)

If there were one more week in the season, the top four teams in the rankings might well get shuffled again; they're that close. The big story at the top is the fall of the Bears, who had sat in the top spot since Week 4. Their slide reflects mostly the collapse of the defense. The Bears gave up at least 21 points in each of their last four games, compared with only twice in their first 12.

There are four teams that did not make the playoffs that finished higher in the rankings than teams that did. The Jaguars this year were a case study in inconsistency. One week they'd dominate a good team (41-0 over the Jets, 37-7 over the later-season Titans, 44-17 over the Colts). The next, they'd eke out a nail-biter over another good team (24-17 over the Cowboys, 9-0 over the Steelers, 13-6 over the Eagles). And the next they'd lay an egg against a clearly inferior opponent (36-30 to the Redskins, 27-7 to the Texans, 27-24 to the Bills). They're higher in the rankings than every team they beat, except New England. Of course, they're higher than every team they lost to, too. Statistically, the Bengals and Steelers are interchangeable, and they're right where they belong. The Jets aren't as strong a team, but they had a far easier schedule. The Broncos are indeed better than the Seahawks and the Giants, which isn't saying much.

We'll see in February how well the KA-POWER RANKINGS system holds up this year, but in the meantime, all shall hail!

Week 16 with excuses galore

It should be quite clear by now that Down and Distance is not going to finish the 2006 NFL regular season having correctly picked two-thirds of the winners, as was the case last year. This week I went 8-8 in the picks, and with one week left to go in the season, my record stands at 144-96. Last year, by contrast, I was 164-76 at this point. That was 20 games better than I'm faring this year. And it was a better-than-Vegas success rate of 68.3%, compared with a flat 60% this year. Even if I ran the table next week, the best I could do for '06 would be a paltry 62.5%.

But it's not just me, thankfully. Oriole Magic, the front-runner in our picks league for 2006, is, by my reckoning, just 153-87 going into the final week. Last year's leader after 16 weeks, Monsters of the Midway, was 170-70, or 17 games better.

So what's going on? Have we all gotten a lot less prescient, very suddenly? No, the NFL has just gotten a lot less polarized, very suddenly.

"Parity" is a word you hear a lot, one that people use to describe whatever they happen to think is wrong about the NFL. It's commonly used incorrectly to describe the phenomenon of sudden ascendance: for example, the Rams going from 4-12 in 1998 to 13-3 in 1999, or the 2004 Steelers jumping from 6-10 to 15-1, or this year's Saints, who've gone from 3-13 to 10-5. (There's also sudden collapse: The 2002 Super Bowl teams going from 23-9 to 11-21.) That's not parity, however; that's volatility. Parity simply means equality. Under a true parity system, there are no "good teams" and no "bad teams," no haves and have-nots. Everyone is just average.

A generally accepted definition of an "average" team in the NFL is one that finishes a season with 7 to 9 wins. There isn't much difference between a 7-9 record, an 8-8 record and a 9-7 record, except for a few random bounces of the ball. Under that definition, last season produced the fewest "average" teams of any year in the salary cap era, which began in 1994. Here are the number of 7- to 9-win teams in each of the past 15 years:

YEAR	7- to 9- WIN TEAMS
2005	5
2004	11
2003	6
2002	15
2001	10
2000	9
1999	13
1998	9
1997	10
1996	13
1995	15
1994	13
1993	12
1992	6
1991	7
1990	7

With only five "average" teams last year (Atlanta at 8-8 and Dallas, Miami, Minnesota and San Diego all at 9-7), the league saw its greatest polarization in recent memory. Most of the franchises were definably "good" or definably "bad," and most matchups had a clear favorite. The pickin' was easy!

This year is totally different It's like the mid-'90s all over again. As of now, there are 12 teams at 8-7 or 7-8 and are thus guaranteed to finish with 7 to 9 wins. (They're evenly divided between the AFC and NFC, by the way) Seven other teams are either 6-9 or 9-6 and could climb into (or fall back into) the "average" pack. When 19 teams out of 32 are decidedly average, picking winners consistently becomes a nightmare. That's why my record -- and everyone's record -- has been so dismal in 2006.

Just for grins, here's my week-by-week record in 2005, and this year:

WK	'05	'06	CHANGE
1	11-5	9-7	-2
2	7-9	12-4	+5
3	9-5	8-6	-1
4	11-3	8-6	-3
5	8-6	12-2	+4
6	10-4	9-4	-1
7	8-6	6-7	-2
8	10-4	6-8	-4
9	12-2	6-8	-6
10	8-6	10-6	+2
11	11-5	10-6	-1
12	13-3	11-5	-2
13	14-2	8-8	-6
14	13-3	10-6	-3
15	10-6	11-5	+1
16	9-7	8-8	-1
17	8-8	???

OK, now that I've used science to prove beyond a doubt that the problem is the National Football League rather than me, let's get to the recaps:

CORRECT PICKS
Green Bay 9, Minnesota 7: I can't imagine this dreadful Thursday night display is going to convince anyone that they just have to have the NFL Network. America loves field goals, even when they're no good!

Kansas City 20, Oakland 9: And for those asking whether the NFL Network could have lined up a game any more desultory than Thursday's Vikings-Packers showdown, the answer is yes: Saturday's Chiefs-Raiders hoedown. The Oakland defense is more or less stout, but the Oakland offense is capable of nothing -- literally, nothing -- so your typical Oakland game involves the Raiders' opponent "jumping out" to a 7-3 or 10-6 lead and then just running out the clock. For like 45 minutes. If there's anyone to feel sorry for in Oakland, I'd pick quarterback Andrew Walter. You can see it all over the poor guy's face: He knows that this is not only the last year he'll start in the NFL, it's probably also the last year he'll even make a roster. Walter rewrote the Pac-10 record book while at Arizona State, but now his football career -- the NFL dreams he's harbored since boyhood -- have dissipated into the chilly night. If I'm Brady Quinn, looking at the possibility of going to the Raiders with the first pick in the draft, my pretty white teeth are chattering uncontrollably.

Chicago 26, Detroit 21: Here are some receivers who didn't drop the winning touchdown pass for Detroit as time ran out Sunday: Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Roddy White, Reggie Brown, Vincent Jackson, Chris Henry. They didn't drop the winning touchdown pass for the Lions on Sunday because way back in 2005, the Lions drafted Mike Williams instead of any of them. To be fair, Roddy White and Chris Henry probably would have dropped the pass, too. If I'm Brady Quinn, looking at the possibility of going to the Lions with the first pick in the draft, my pretty white underpants just turned dazzling yellow. I've chosen to focus on the Lions here because there's nothing left worth saying about the Bears.

New Orleans 30, N.Y. Giants 7: There are two definitions of "discipline." One is "punishment," the other is "self-control." The first kind of disciplinarian, then, is someone who subjects his charges to all sorts of ridiculous rules and shitty grudges and punishes them publicly when they don't comply. That's Tom Coughlin. The second kind is someone who lays out specifically how he expects his charges to produce, then holds them accountable for meeting those expectations. That's Sean Payton. Is it any wonder then, that after both teams had a rough first half, the Saints responded with 24 unanswered points, while the Giants simply quit?

New England 24, Jacksonville 21: Look, I've finally become a Patriots fan, and I'm glad to see they're winning, but I don't know. They just look ... unconvincing. I know they can beat anybody, but will they?

San Diego 20, Seattle 17: Seattle can take satisfaction in being the first Super Bowl runner-up in five years to make the playoffs. Then again, if you need a loss by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16 to win the division, you're really only making the playoffs on a technicality. On the San Diego side, Philip Rivers needs to get his shit together pronto. The past couple of weeks, he's played like one of those Garrardesque quarterbacks who "just win games." And you know what happens to them.

Denver 24, Cincinnati 23: We can talk about the botched snap on the extra point all we want. Carson Palmer would probably prefer we do, because something's wrong with his throwing motion. There's no way this game should have even been close. If Palmer had hit his open receivers, this would have been a romp for the Bengals. Well, if the receivers had also caught the balls and held onto them. Which is a big "if."

N.Y. Jets 13, Miami 10: ESPN kept showing us footage from the Second Miracle at the Meadowlands in a vain attempt to fool us into thinking we were eating something besides a rain-basted turd served in an empty stadium. All that stands between the Jets and the playoffs now is the 2-13 Raiders. But don't count on it.

INCORRECT PICKS
Baltimore 31, Pittsburgh 7: The Steelers had "climbed back into playoff contention" by stealing milk money from the Buccaneers, Browns and Panthers by a combined 84-13. So it was refreshing to see the Ravens come into Pittsburgh and, for the second time in five weeks, pull down the Steelers' pants in front of all the girls. And the Steelers weren't wearing any underwear!

St. Louis 37, Washington 31 (OT): Your 2006 Redskins: Beat the 2-1 Jaguars, lose to the 0-5 Titans. Beat the 4-3 Cowboys, lose to the 2-7 Bucs. Beat the 6-4 Panthers, lose to the 5-6 Falcons. Beat the 9-4 Saints, lose to the 6-8 Rams. Oh sure, talk about Marc Bulger if you must. Someone has to play for the NFC in the Pro Bowl.

Tennessee 30, Buffalo 29: You know, I hate it when coaches kick late field goals when they really need to be going for it on fourth down. In the final minute Sunday, however, the Bills needed a 45-yard field goal to win the game, but Dick Jauron instead elected to go for it on fourth down. To go for the touchdown on fourth down. When they were down by 1 point. When their kicker was 5-for-5. The X-factor in this game wasn't Vince Young. It was stupidity and cowardice. I guess that's an X-factor and a Y-factor, actually.

Tanpa Bay 22, Cleveland 7: Remember how Derek Anderson had made Charlie Frye expendable? Well, since this game pretty much locks up the No. 3 draft pick for the Browns, it looks like we'll get the chance to see whether hometown hero Troy Smith will make them both expendable.

Houston 27, Indianapolis 24: The Colts had six possessions and scored on four of them. Unfortunately, the Texans had seven possessions and scored on five of them. The Colts have always had the ability to score on two-thirds of their possessions; the difference this year is that even bottom-scrapers like the Texans, with washouts like Ron Dayne, can run the ball at will and outscore them. Who looks the worst after this game? Probably the Bengals.

Carolina 10, Atlanta 3: Last week Michael Vick threw four touchdown passes, but all anyone wanted to talk about was the fact that he took himself off the field with two minutes remaining and the game still somewhat within reach. The week Michael Vick became the first quarterback to amass 1,000 yards rushing in a season, but all anyone wants to talk about is the fact that the game was within reach all damn day and Atlanta's offensive juggernaut could put up just 3 measly points. A Falcons fan reading this might get disgusted and say, "Whatever Vick does, he gets criticized. Vick just can't win." I agree!

Arizona 26, San Francisco 20: After all the "Leinart + Edge = Super Bowl" excitement and all the "Arizona-is-turning-it-around" talk this year, the Cardinals this week improved to 5-10. After next week's presumptive loss at San Diego, they'll be 5-11. Last year, before they turned the whole franchise around, they were 5-11. The year before that? 6-10. That's the Way Of The Cardinals. If in the offseason they can sign the entire Indianapolis offensive line, the bulk of Chicago's special teams, and the entire Baltimore defense, they might well go winless in 2007.

Philadelphia 23, Dallas 7: Heh. Eagles fans think Jeff Garcia is the answer. That's like thinking Tony Romo is going to get you to the Super Bowl.

THIS WEEK: 8-8
SEASON: 144-96 (60.0%)
(2005 through Week 16: 164-76)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 16
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W16 = This week's ranking. W15 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W16	W15	TEAM	POW		W16	W15	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	17	Seahawks	45.10
2	4	Ravens	95.13		18	18	Dolphins	47.48
3	2	Chargers	91.48		19	20	Vikings	43.15
4	3	Patriots	89.98		20	21	Rams	42.51
5	5	Jaguars	80.20		21	19	Falcons	42.42
6	7	Saints	75.52		22	23	Panthers	36.41
7	6	Cowboys	70.48		23	22	Titans	35.87
8	11	Eagles	66.17		24	24	Redskins	33.83
9	9	Colts	64.84		25	25	Cardinals	33.46
10	10	Bengals	62.88		26	26	Packers	28.64
11	8	Steelers	59.31		27	27	Lions	24.12
12	12	Broncos	55.74		28	30	Texans	21.61
13	15	Chiefs	53.96		29	29	49ers	21.20
T14	16	Jets	51.08		30	28	Browns	18.75
T14	14	Bills	51.08		31	31	Bucs	11.34
16	13	Giants	47.48		32	32	Raiders	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): None. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Saints.

Week 15, when everyone gets blown out

Down and Distance went 11-5 in the picks this week. Not bad. Not terribly good, either. I don't know where I got Arizona over Denver, but I totally predicted that Vince Young would lead the Titans to victory over the Jaguars. He just wins!

CORRECT PICKS
Dallas 38, Atlanta 28: Many media historians say that TV network news came of age with the JFK assassination, and that cable news did so with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. From watching Saturday's post-game coverage, it appears that the NFL Network views Terrell Owens spitting on DeAngelo Hall as its equivalent of JFK and the Gulf War, plus Pearl Harbor, 9/11 and that girl who fell down the well in Texas.

N.Y. Jets 26, Minnesota 13: We'd all been expecting the Vikings to bench Brad Johnson, but we weren't expecting shitty defense to be the precipitating factor.

Buffalo 21, Miami 0: I've finally figured out where I've seen these Bills before: they're the Green Bay Packers of the early 1980s. Capable of beating anybody, capable of losing to anybody, capable of shutting out an opponent, capable of getting shut out. And never a real threat to make the playoffs. J.P. Losman is Lynn Dickey, Lee Evans is James Lofton, Mike Mularkey is Bart Starr, and Dick Jauron is Forest Gregg. Willis McGahee is both Gerry Ellis and Eddie Lee Ivery. I've seen these Dolphins, too: the Buffalo Bills of the late 1990s.

Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 17: Well, of course. As soon as the Jaguars franchise puts all its eggs in David Garrard's basket, Garrard goes and pees in it. With this game, Vince Young made a run at Garrard for the title of "quarterback most likely to get credit for victories that were achieved in spite of him, not because of him." Also known as the Kyle Orton Trophy.

Chicago 34, Tampa Bay 31 (OT): Devin Hester's fumble on a kick return let the Buccaneers back in the game, and yet you didn't see it anywhere in the highlights. Gee, wonder why. Speaking of media darlings, the Bears defense gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter. In their three previous games, the Bucs scored a total of 19.

Pittsburgh 37, Carolina 3: Turns out quitters really don't win. When you see how Chris Weinke and Brad Basanez have spun their wheels in the absence of Jake Delhomme, you have to ask again why Carolina was so quick to cut Stefan LeFors.

New England 40, Houston 7: Like just about everybody except Jacksonville, the Patriots take a welcome break from their struggles by kicking the shit out of the Houston Texans.

Green Bay 17, Detroit 9: It's just sad to see what's happened to this classic rivalry. It's become just a matchup of two also-rans, whereas not too long ago it was a twice-yearly clash of a perennial league powerhouse and ... well, and a perennial also-ran. It's sad if you're a Packer fan, I guess. If you're a Lions fan, it's just life as you know it.

Baltimore 27, Cleveland 17: Watching former Ravens starting QB Kyle Boller come into the game after Steve McNair's injury, I thought about the 2001 AFC Championship Game, when Drew Bledsoe, who had also lost his starting job, led the Patriots to victory while subbing for the injured Tom Brady. And I thought to myself, "This isn't like that at all."

St. Louis 20, Oakland 0: It's the third time this year the Raiders have been shut out. How bad is it in Oakland? Aaron Brooks is their best hope at quarterback.

San Diego 20, Kansas City 9: Even people who have LaDanian Tomlinson in their fantasy leagues are tired of hearing from guys who have LaDanian Tomlinson in their fantasy leagues.

INCORRECT PICKS
San Francisco 24, Seattle 14: Here's how the Seahawks finished in the first seven years of Mike Holmgren's tenure: 9-7, 6-10, 9-7, 7-9, 10-6, 9-7, 13-3. Hmm, which one is the fluke? Some may say that this game shows that the 49ers of old are making a comeback. Others (me) say that the Seahawks of old are merely reasserting themselves.

Washington 16, New Orleans 10: In the Washington victory, Ladell Betts once again demonstrated everything that's wrong with the Redskins. Wait: Betts ran for 119 yards and had another 43 yards receiving, so what's the problem? The problem is that when Clinton Portis went down with an injury in preseason, the Redskins panicked and traded two high draft choices for T.J. Duckett. The problem is that Duckett has barely seen the field because Betts has played so well. The problem is that the Redskins threw away draft picks because they had no clue about the talent level of the guy who has been on their roster for more than five years. Still, nice win, Skins!

Philadelphia 36, N.Y. Giants 22: Eagles fill-in QB Jeff Garcia has reportedly said he's playing for a starting position somewhere next year. He certainly played like a second-stringer in Detroit last year, and look where that got him. I'd say something about the game, which I watched from start to finish, but I just don't care.

Denver 37, Arizona 20: It was worth taking a shot on the Cardinals, regardless of the outcome. If I'm Matt Leinart, I'm standing on the sidelines thinking about all the national championships I won and all the starlets I sqwanked in college and wondering how the hell I wound up on Arizona's Souped-Up Scooter to Hell while Jay Cutler -- Vanderbilt alumnus Jay Cutler -- gets to sling it around in Denver.

Indianapolis 34, Cincinnati 16: Despite the 9-0 start, Indianapolis had been having trouble all year because opposing defenses were stacking their coverages to take away the deep passing game, forcing the Colts to rely on short throws and runs. That meant more plays per drive, which meant more opportunities for error, which contributed to the Colts losing three out of four games. Monday night, however, the Colts embraced the new reality and didn't even try throwing downfield. Think the Monday Night Football crew made the connection? Ha. Kornheiser was too busy telling us (over and over) that Colts, who have already clinched their division title, "needed this game more" than the Bengals, who are struggling to make the playoffs as a wild card. Also, Matthew McConaughey was in the booth, which gave everyone up there a chance to indulge their man-crushes.

THIS WEEK: 11-5
SEASON: 136-88 (60.7%)
(2005 through Week 14: 155-69)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 15
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W15 = This week's ranking. W14 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W15	W14	TEAM	POW		W15	W14	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	16	Seahawks	44.04
2	2	Chargers	90.59		18	14	Dolphins	43.93
3	5	Patriots	90.14		19	18	Falcons	42.78
4	3	Ravens	88.12		20	17	Vikings	42.04
5	4	Jaguars	81.46		21	22	Rams	38.52
6	6	Cowboys	73.30		22	24	Titans	32.77
7	7	Saints	69.03		23	21	Panthers	32.40
8	12	Steelers	64.78		24	25	Redskins	32.21
9	9	Colts	64.74		25	23	Cardinals	29.21
10	8	Bengals	62.24		26	28	Packers	26.28
11	10	Eagles	60.97		27	27	Lions	22.22
12	15	Broncos	54.16		28	29	Browns	20.49
13	11	Giants	51.83		29	30	49ers	19.48
14	20	Bills	49.80		30	26	Texans	16.97
15	13	Chiefs	49.17		31	32	Bucs	3.24
16	19	Jets	48.58		32	31	Raiders	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Saints. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks.

Week 14: Two TDs down, one FG to go

A 10-6 record in the picks this week doesn't look too hot on its face, but it was better than most. Nearly everyone picked Indianapolis, New England, Seattle, San Francisco, Dallas and the Jets to win. But I'm surprised at how many also expected the Lions to beat the Vikings and Baltimore to lose in K.C.

CORRECT PICKS
Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 7: The Browns weren't going to win in any event, but had their receivers been able to hold onto the ball, they might have been able to last past the first quarter.

N.Y. Giants 27, Carolina 13: The Unfulfilled Expectations Bowl. I said before the season even started that the Panthers would regret cutting Stefan LeFors for Chris Weinke. And look what happened. Weinke's now 1-15 lifetime as a starter.

Philadelphia 21, Washington 19: On the "Blitz" segment of ESPN's SportsCenter, bald idjit Chris Berman said that when it comes to the Eagles' current QB, there's a simple truth: "Jeff Garcia wins." Except, of course, in Cleveland (3-7 as a starter) and Detroit (1-5). In this game the Redskins had 20 first downs to the Eagles' 14, outgained Philadelphia 415 yards to 263, and held the ball for 15 minutes longer. So why did they lose? Because they're the Redskins.

Tennessee 26, Houston 20: Vince Young's incredible game-winning scramble for a touchdown in overtime spared his coach, Jeff Fisher, from scrutiny for his weak-kneed game management at the end of regulation. On fourth-and-2 at midfield with the score tied and less than a minute on the clock, Fisher elected to punt and play for overtime. You've put your season on Young's shoulders, but you won't put the game in his hands? It's a good thing Tennessee won the coin toss in OT.

Cincinnati 27, Oakland 10: The Raiders intercepted Carson Palmer three times, which increased Palmer's INT total for the year nearly 40%. It was the first time Palmer had been picked thrice since 2004, when he was functionally a rookie. And yet you'll note that the Bengals still won by three scores. That's because giving the ball to the Oakland offense is like giving the Glengarry leads to Shelley Levene: "To give them to you is just throwing them away."

Minnesota 30, Detroit 20: Earlier this year the Lions gave up 201 yards and a touchdown pass to Brad Johnson's 38-year-old arm. There's no shame in that. Sunday, the Lions gave up a touchdown run to Johnson's 38-year-old legs. Shame? Someone ought to get publicly flogged for that. The guy's even older than me, and I'm ancient. He hadn't run for a TD in five years.

Baltimore 20, Kansas City 10: Kansas City fans will likely holler for the return of Damon Huard. It's easier than facing the truth.

Atlanta 17, Tampa Bay 6: If you can't win the game yourself, it helps to have a division opponent who'll just hand it to you.

San Diego 48, Denver 20: For one quarter (the third), Jay Cutler looked like John Elway, then he went back to looking like Jake Plummer. A young Jake Plummer.

Chicago 42, St. Louis 27: Who cares that Devin Hester returned two kickoffs for touchdowns, making the difference for the Bears amid another shaky performance by their defense? The important thing, according to the Monday Night Football crew, is that Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman didn't shoot any of his teammates in the face. All the Bears' problems are solved! Judging by the crowd shots and the noise in the Edward Jones Dome, the Bears continue to "travel well," as they say in college, but man, are their fans an ugly lot. If I saw one more waxy, red-faced fuck in a Brian Urlacher jersey dumping another 18-ounce beer over his triple chin, I was going to turn off the TV in disgust. But Joe Theismann ("Torry Holt can make those plays, and he does make those plays") chased me away just in time.

INCORRECT PICKS

Miami 21, New England 0
Jacksonville 44, Indianapolis 17
The Manning-Brady debate takes an interesting turn: They both suck! Which loss was the ugliest? Seeing as how the Dolphins have been giving the Patriots fits for years (remember?) and also how the Colts have been allowed to skate with a rep for always "finding a way to win" against the Jaguars, I'll go with Indy's embarrassing ass-kicking in Jacksonville. It was a total meltdown, and it was totally inevitable. Both these teams were thoroughly outcoached, but only one would say so publicly ... and it was Bill Belichick who did the admitting.

Green Bay 30, San Francisco 19: Man, this was like watching those great Packers-Niners duels of the mid-1990s, when they were slugging it out for NFC dominance. I mean, you had Brett Favre out there slinging it around. And you had ... Well, you had Brett Favre out the slinging it around. And they were playing at Candlestick. And it was Sunday. Hey, look: Balloons!

Buffalo 31, N.Y. Jets 13: The road to the playoffs was laid out in front of the Jets, and they immediately slipped on dog feces. And they did it at home. Against the Bills. Maybe the Jets got caught looking ahead, but to whom? The Vikings? The Raiders?

Arizona 27, Seattle 21: Heh.

New Orleans 42, Dallas 17: The Cowboys were the quasi-official team to beat in the NFC for exactly seven days. New Orleans wrested the front-runner's sash from Dallas with a convincing Sunday night victory, but the Saints wore it for just a day, before Chicago put away the hapless Rams and were declared cured by conventional wisdom.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 125-83 (60.1%)
(2005 through Week 14: 145-63)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 14
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W14 = This week's ranking. W13 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W14	W13	TEAM	POW		W14	W13	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	19	Vikings	44.82
2	4	Chargers	85.57		18	20	Falcons	44.26
3	3	Ravens	84.24		19	14	Jets	43.54
4	6	Jaguars	82.57		20	21	Bills	42.18
5	2	Patriots	79.01		21	17	Panthers	42.07
6	5	Cowboys	70.26		22	22	Rams	32.59
7	8	Saints	68.63		23	23	Cardinals	32.18
8	9	Bengals	65.98		24	26	Titans	29.68
9	7	Colts	59.20		25	24	Redskins	29.66
10	11	Eagles	56.37		26	27	Texans	25.08
11	13	Giants	54.47		27	28	Lions	23.91
12	15	Steelers	54.04		28	29	Packers	23.66
13	12	Chiefs	51.14		29	25	Browns	22.00
14	18	Dolphins	49.96		30	30	49ers	15.88
15	10	Broncos	47.60		31	31	Raiders	7.30
16	16	Seahawks	45.52		32	32	Bucs	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Cowboys, Seahawks. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos.

Week 13 and no one's lucky

Ugh. 8-8 this week in the picks. I take solace in the fact that no one did better than 10-6. It's cold comfort, but hey, it's December.

CORRECT PICKS
New England 28, Detroit 21: "Frankly, the Lions deserved to beat the Patriots." I don't know that that sentence has been written before, at least not sarcastically. Arizona's win at St. Louis has cleared room in the league cellar, so now Detroit just has to get past Oakland for the right to draft Brady Quinn, who will then bear the blame for everything that's wrong with the Lions.

San Diego 24, Buffalo 21: Just because a team hails from a warm-weather city doesn't mean it's totally incapable of playing north of the equator after Oct. 1.

Chicago 23, Minnesota 21: Remember when the Bears beat the Cardinals, and everyone said it was a wake-up call for the team? How they couldn't keep counting on defense, special teams, and the other teams' errors to bail them out? How they just had to play better on offense? And yet they keep playing worse. Vital stats from Chicago's Week 6 victory at Arizona and Sunday's game vs. the Vikings:

METRIC	vs. ARZ	vs. MIN
Yards gained by Bears	168	107
Yards gained by opponent	286	348
Bears 1st downs	9	6
Opponent 1st downs	17	21
Points by Bears offense	3	7
Points by Bears defense/special teams	21	16
Rex Grossman passer rating	10.7	1.3
Win?	Yes	Yes
Score	24-23	23-21

All Kyle Orton does is win!

Atlanta 24, Washington 14: I had originally written "The Falcons may have saved their season," but in reality they did no such thing.

New Orleans 34, San Francisco 10: There's a guy in your office who picked Reggie Bush way too early in his fantasy draft and had started him every game, hoping each time that it would be the week Bush finally broke out. Then, this Sunday, he finally gave up and benched Bush in favor of, I don't know, Laurence Maroney. Then Bush went for four TDs. But I don't have to tell you any of this, because he won't shut up about it.

Pittsburgh 20, Tampa Bay 3: I thought it was a bit silly for Green Bay to go for the field goal while losing 31-0 in the third quarter. Then I saw Tampa Bay go for a field goal when down 20-0 on the final play of the game. Talk about ridiculous. I wrote last year that putting up only 3 points is even more pathetic than getting shut out, and I stand by it. I'm sure this game was nice and cathartic for Steeler fans, but from a distance, it was just sad. Both these teams were in the playoffs last year, and it's likely that both Fox and the flex-schedule people at NBC at one point saw this as a marquee matchup. Instead, it was just another late-season collision of two buses headed nowhere. Well, only one bus, when you think about it.

Jacksonville 24, Miami 10: Here's how to pick a Jaguars game: Select a number at random. If it's an odd number, multiply by 3; if even, by 2.5. Now double it. Subtract from it from the square of your original number. Now close your eyes and flip a coin.

Dallas 23, N.Y. Giants 20: Sunday's adequate performance aside, everyone in New York is screaming about Eli Manning, but what are the Giants going to do? Bench him? For whom? Elisabeth Hasselbeck's husband is in uniform mostly for self-esteem reasons, and Jared Lorenzen remains on the roster only as a cruel frat prank.

INCORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati 13, Baltimore 7: I heard more than once, "If this game had been played in Baltimore in January, the result would have been different. Yes, but it wasn't. And it wasn't. Me, I'm as guilty as everyone else.

Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 17: This would normally be the space in which the Titans are praised for again devising a game plan that matched their strengths to the Colts' weakness. But I can't get past the powder-blue pants.

Arizona 34, St. Louis 20: Those fantasy owners who took a chance on a certain Arizona Cardinals running back are looking pretty smart today. I mean, I wish I'd had the foresight to pick up Marcel Shipp.

Cleveland 31, Kansas City 28 (OT): Who is Derek Anderson? Suddenly the most popular guy in Cleveland. Just like Charlie Frye was for a few weeks before him, Trent Dilfer for a few weeks before him, Kelly Holcomb for a few weeks before him and Jeff Garcia for those bizarre six or seven weeks in 2003.

Houston 23, Oakland 14: If you can't beat the Texans and their putrid offense (minus-5 yards net passing) when you have an excellent defense and are playing at home, don't even bother coming out.

N.Y. Jets 38, Green Bay 10: CBS has to have a pretty weak slate of games to send its No. 1 announcing team to call the 7-4, probably-not-going-anywhere Jets against the 4-7, definitely-not-going-anywhere Packers. In picking Green Bay, I had this whole "feisty, upset minded Packers playing at home" thing spinning in my head. Then Jim Nantz reminded me that only one team has been shut out at home twice this year: the Packers. Thanks, dick.

Seattle 23, Denver 20: The Broncos put Jay Cutler in at quarterback because Jake Plummer kept fumbling snaps and exchanges and throwing costly interceptions.

Philadelphia 27, Carolina 24: Jeff Garcia was this close to being put out of our misery.

THIS WEEK: 8-8
SEASON: 115-77 (59.9%)
(2005 through Week 13: 132-60)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 13
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W13 = This week's ranking. W12 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W13	W12	TEAM	POW		W13	W12	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	15	Panthers	44.50
2	2	Patriots	85.10		18	14	Dolphins	40.63
3	3	Ravens	80.68		19	17	Vikings	39.08
4	4	Chargers	80.26		20	21	Falcons	38.63
5	5	Cowboys	77.14		21	22	Bills	33.80
6	6	Jaguars	75.48		22	20	Rams	33.08
7	7	Colts	65.26		23	28	Cardinals	27.10
8	10	Saints	61.75		24	23	Redskins	27.02
9	8	Bengals	60.12		25	27	Browns	24.92
10	9	Broncos	56.00		26	26	Titans	24.54
11	11	Eagles	54.29		27	30	Texans	23.08
12	12	Chiefs	52.32		28	24	Lions	22.85
13	13	Giants	48.80		29	25	Packers	16.76
14	19	Jets	46.84		30	29	49ers	14.50
15	18	Steelers	46.48		31	31	Raiders	8.61
16	16	Seahawks	45.03		32	32	Bucs	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Chiefs, Broncos. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars, Giants, Panthers.

Week 12: Meet our new draft pick

What a weekend. First I hit the Turkey Day Hat Trick by picking all three Thanksgiving Day games correctly. Then this little guy made an appearance at 4:46 p.m. on Friday:



When all was said and done, I was 11-5 in the picks for Week 12. I could have gone 14-2 if only the 49ers could finish and Eli Manning and Rex Grossman would quit trying to outdo each other in regressing the farthest the fastest.

CORRECT PICKS
Miami 27, Detroit 10: Deacon Jones once memorably told Peter Brady that a real man can both play tackle football and sing in the glee club, and that a love of making music doesn't mean you're a pussy. Peter Brady lived that advice, and now he's a buff motherfucker peddling workout scams on TV. Miami Dolphins quarterback Joey Harrington also learned this lesson, for better or worse. You know who hasn't learned it? The Detroit Lions. Detroit, a franchise always in search of newer and deeper lows, reached a new one during Week 12 -- a display of childishness, classlessness and scumminess that was all the more appalling because it came on Thanksgiving Day, before a nationally televised game. The Lions, who host (and lose) a Thanksgiving game every fall, this year were facing the Harrington-led Dolphins. There was no question that Harrington was going to be booed by the Detroit fans. Harrington, whom Detroit made the No. 3 overall pick in the 2002 draft, spent four years with the Lions and wound up saddled with a ridiculously outsized portion of the blame for the culture of losing that the franchise has wallowed in for decades. Hell, Harrington himself expected Lions fans to give him an earful. What he probably didn't expect was that the Ford Field gameday operations staff would bend over backwards to try to mock and humiliate him. Actually, maybe he did expect it. He'd spent enough time with the Lions to know what a cesspool this organization is. To sum up what happened: Before each game, a team decides whether it wants its offense or defense introduced over the PA system. The Dolphins chose to introduce their defense. The Detroit PA crew went ahead and introduced the Miami defense ... and Joey Harrington. Cue the boos. Worse, the music chosen for the introductions was Piano Man, mocking Harrington for his once-featured-on-MNF piano playing. Some teams are poorly run. Some teams are poorly managed. Some teams are awful on the field. But the rat-fuck operation in Detroit tops them all. Is it any wonder that the Lions are the worst team in the league? Is it any wonder that no matter who plays quarterback for the Lions, the result is always the same? And is it any wonder that Matt Millen, the Lions' craven, shitty general manager, the man who makes all the decisions, hires the coaches, picks the players, sets the tone for the franchise and yet blames everyone but himself for repeated failure, is a Ford employee?

Dallas 38, Tampa Bay 10: Romo, shlomo. The best news out of Dallas this week is that Bill Parcells finally gave Mike Vanderjagt the boot. And unlike Vanderjagt, Parcells made solid contact. Thus Vanderjagt completes the quickest transition from unflappable-top-drawer kicker to ineffective-head-case kicker since Martin Grammatica. And who did the Cowboys sign to replace Vandy? Martin Grammatica.

Kansas City 19, Denver 10: If there's one thing common to players and coaches around the league, it's the way they bitch about "the media" drumming up controversies based on unsourced reports. So if you're Mike Shanahan and the subject is your (at the time speculative) pending quarterback change, what do you do when the "media" in question is the league-owned and -operated NFL Network?

New Orleans 31, Atlanta 13: Oh, and fuck you, too ya tool.

Cincinnati 30, Cleveland 0: And here I'd given up on the Bengals.

Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 0: I've never really liked the Ravens. Fortunately, Joey Porter got me to dislike the Steelers even more.

Minnesota 31, Arizona 26: A game against the Cardinals is just what it takes to make Brad Johnson feel under 50 again. On the other side, Matt Leinart had thrown for over 400 yards, and yet in the 59th minute, all Arizona had on the board was two Neil Rackers field goals, a freak special teams TD and a freak defensive TD. The Cards are back, baby!

N.Y. Jets 26, Houston 11: I guess I can understand why Texas and cities in the AFC East got this stinker, but what did the Green Bay market do to deserve it?

San Diego 21, Oakland 14: I'm not saying the Raiders are better than teams think they are. I'm saying the Raiders aren't as bad as teams think they are. There's a difference, and it nearly bit the Chargers in the ass.

Indianapolis 45, Philadelphia 21: If Edgerrin James had a little Joseph Addai doll, he'd be sticking pins in it. And bet you didn't know the Eagles defense was riding on Donovan McNabb's knee, too, did you?

Seattle 34, Green Bay 24: Tell me again, what's the value of having Jerramy Stevens on your team? Look, no one expects tight ends to make circus catches or outrun corners in the open field. But they do expect that when a tight end gets open and his quarterback puts the ball right in his hands, he will catch it. Further, when he catches the ball, he will hold onto it when hit by a defender. This is, after all, tackle football. Yet Monday night, as always, Stevens dropped one perfect or near-perfect pass after another. On at least two occasions he caught the ball and tucked it away, only to drop it on contact. When he finally did hold onto a couple passes, first for a 2-point conversion and later for Seattle's clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter, he strutted and pounded his chest like the overvalued clown he was exposed as in the Super Bowl.

INCORRECT PICKS
Washington 20, Carolina 17: You know, even when the Redskins manage to claim a decent victory over a respectable (though directionless) team like the Panthers, all I can think of is how sad the situation is. Washington's defense played solidly, and Jason Campbell and Ladell Betts sort of looked like they knew what they were doing back there. Given a little time and a few tweaks, the Redskins could have the beginnings of something. But they won't get any time and there's no way they'll have only a few tweaks. That's because the Redskins are 4-7, which means they won't be going to the playoffs. Which means at the end of the regular season, this roster will be disassembled, again, and anyone who emerged this year as a solid role player with a promising future will be cut loose in favor of a free agent with more name than talent. Then again, the Skins did that last year, too, even though they made the playoffs. See? Sad.

St. Louis 20, San Francisco 17: If NFL games were 59 minutes long, I'd have gotten this one right. That's true often, it seems. We shouldn't get too excited about the 49ers just yet, but they're beating bad teams and playing mediocre ones close. That's the key to an 8-8 record. Considering the way San Francisco has played this century, this is good news.

Buffalo 27, Jacksonville 24: Does anyone care about the Jaguars anymore? One week after dominating the Giants, they roll over for the sorry Bills.

Tennessee 24, N.Y. Giants 21: You can call this an upset if you like, but Tennessee is capable of beating any team in the league -- or losing to any team by three touchdowns. Just like the Giants are capable of losing to any team in the league -- or beating any team by three touchdowns. (On Sunday, the Giants managed to do both.) I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who realizes that Mathias Kiwanuka let Vince Young escape what would have been the game-clinching sack because he was afraid the referee would flag him for roughing the passer. That makes at least two games this year (Bucs-Bengals being the other) in which the outcome hinged on the officials' increasingly insane interpretation of rules intended to protect owners' investment in their quarterbacks. One of the dullest saws in pro football commentary is the complaint that "they coddle QBs so much they should just wear skirts out there," or somesuch. But this is just getting ridiculous. All that said, considering that the Giants went into the fourth quarter up 21-0, the game should never have come down to that fourth-down play. Question: Is there any quarterback who is unraveling even remotely as quickly as Eli Manning?

New England 17, Chicago 13:Answer: Yes, Rex Grossman!

THIS WEEK: 11-5
SEASON: 107-69 (60.8%)
(2005 through Week 10: 118-58)

---

KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 12
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W12 = This week's ranking. W11 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W12	W11	TEAM	POW		W12	W11	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	18	Vikings	39.47
2	2	Patriots	85.86		18	14	Steelers	38.57
3	5	Ravens	83.23		19	23	Jets	34.30
4	3	Chargers	80.62		20	20	Rams	33.17
5	6	Cowboys	77.24		21	17	Falcons	31.63
6	4	Jaguars	70.88		22	22	Bills	30.62
7	9	Colts	65.44		23	25	Redskins	25.68
8	13	Bengals	56.67		24	24	Lions	19.41
9	8	Broncos	56.21		25	26	Packers	19.17
10	12	Saints	53.79		26	28	Titans	18.64
11	7	Eagles	51.87		27	21	Browns	17.45
12	T10	Chiefs	51.86		28	29	Cardinals	16.82
13	T10	Giants	47.52		29	30	49ers	15.74
14	19	Dolphins	42.90		30	27	Texans	14.58
15	15	Panthers	42.88		31	32	Raiders	4.86
16	16	Seahawks	41.35		32	31	Bucs	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Jaguars, Giants, Panthers. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams, Jets, Eagles, Falcons.

Week 11? These go to 11

Still waiting for our little one. Four days overdue now. He's gonna have some explaining to do.

CORRECT PICKS
New England 35, Green Bay 0: Another man's pain isn't really funny, but the circumstances can be. Filling in for dented iron man Brett Favre, who has started 251 straight games, Aaron Rodgers broke his foot after 32 whole minutes and is out for the season. Hey, that indignity is considerably more amusing than the one visited on the Packer defense.

Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20: Ben Roethlisberger discovers that when you lead your team to a stirring comeback victory over a (vastly inferior) historic division rival, people will let slide the fact that you were the one responsible for digging the hole so deep in the first place. Who said he didn't have anything to learn from Eli Manning?

Tampa Bay 20, Washington 17: The worst possible thing that could have happened to the Redskins on Sunday would have been for them to win the first game of the Jason Campbell era. Instead, the loss to the walking-dead Buccaneers might -- I emphasize might -- signal to the front office that while quarterback play has been a problem this season, it hasn't been the problem. What's been the problem this season? The front office! Just like every season.

Carolina 15, St. Louis 0: The Panthers outgained the hapless Rams 411 yards to 111 and controlled the ball nearly twice as long, yet still won by only 15-0. This is why no one fears a kitty-cat with teal fur.

Kansas City 17, Oakland 13: I know it was just Trent Green's first game back, and the Chiefs wanted to ease him back into things, but you can't expect to make the playoffs out of the stacked AFC West if, when facing the Raiders at home, you play the duckie for all but the last couple minutes.

Miami 24, Minnesota 20: The Joey Harrington-led Dolphins have "won" three consecutive games. The only way that could be more amazing is if Harington had played much of a role in winning them. But as Kyle Orton can tell you, this sure beats working.

Chicago 10, N.Y. Jets 0: Bad Rex. Good win!

Baltimore 24, Atlanta 10: Good Vick. Bad loss!

Arizona 17, Detroit 10: I can understand why the network had to serve Arizona and Michigan this shitburger, but what did Toledo, Ohio, ever do to Fox?

Dallas 21, Indianapolis 14: It's the matchups, people. Were I a Colts fan -- and every night I thank the big commissioner in the sky that I am not -- I'd be less concerned about a 7-point loss to Dallas on the road than I would about 1-point victories over Tennessee and Buffalo at home. The consensus appears to be that the Colts needed this loss as much as the Cowboys needed this win. Like it'll matter.

INCORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati 31, New Orleans 16: It's never a good sign when a quarterback throws for 510 yards, especially when 145 of them come on drives that end in interceptions: two in the end zone, and one brought back for a touchdown.

Tennessee 31, Philadelphia 13: All the attention paid to the sad injury to Donovan McNabb obscures the sad reality that the Eagles were well on their way to losing this game before No. 5's knee went pop. The Dolphins, Colts, Redskins and Ravens have already learned this year that you look past the Titans at your own peril. Combine the Eagles' similar lack of focus with their now-standard operating procedure of spotting an inferior opponent the lead, and it'll be another cold, idle January at the Linc. It seems the window of opportunity has finally slammed shut on the Eagles' blunt (5 fumbles) fingers.

Buffalo 24, Houston 21: What does J.P. Losman have in common with Michael Vick? Both were first-round picks. Both spend significant chunks of the season bobbing around in the toilet, then surface from time to time with a solid game. That's about it, really. Sunday was Losman's turn to play reasonably well. He threw three touchdowns, four if you count the interception brought back for what was nearly the TD that cost the Bills the game.

San Francisco 20, Seattle 14: Though Shaun Alexander is back, the Seahawks still--OH MY GOD. The 49ers have won three straight and are now one game behind Seattle in the NFC West.

San Diego 35, Denver 27: If the Chargers can beat the Broncos in Denver, with their two steroidal freaks sitting out, then the AFC West is San Diego's to lose. Speaking of losing games or starting jobs ... I know I can't put all the blame for the Broncos' choke act on Jake Plummer's slumped shoulders, but the guy is a total wreck back there.

Jacksonville 26, N.Y. Giants 10: It was clear going in that the holey Giants defense was going to have some problems with the Jaguars offense. And sure enough, David Garrard on Monday night moved Byron Leftwich a bit closer to the starting job in Minnesota for the 2007 season (mark my words). What I foolishly assumed, however, was that New York's mostly healthy offense, with all its high-performance parts, would keep this game close enough to pull out in the end. The most dangerous part of any vehicle, of course, is the nut behind the wheel, and Eli Manning was by turns too tight, too loose and just not there at all. Your typical analyst watches a performance like Manning's against Jacksonville and declares that Eli looked as if he didn't care that he was killing his team. I can't read minds. All I'll say is that it looked as if Eli didn't notice that he was killing his team, at least until it was too late. And that may be the essential difference between the Manning boys: Peyton can throw three touchdown passes and still won't appear particularly happy. Eli can throw three interceptions brought back for touchdowns and still won't appear particularly upset.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 96-64 (60.0%)
(2005 through Week 10: 105-55)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 11
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W11 = This week's ranking. W10 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W11	W10	TEAM	POW		W11	W10	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	15	Falcons	32.80
2	3	Patriots	82.19		18	18	Vikings	32.03
3	2	Chargers	75.69		19	20	Dolphins	30.92
4	4	Jaguars	70.99		20	19	Rams	26.75
5	5	Ravens	69.56		21	23	Browns	23.26
6	6	Cowboys	66.14		22	25	Bills	23.13
7	7	Eagles	56.59		23	21	Jets	23.11
8	8	Broncos	56.54		24	24	Lions	19.17
9	9	Colts	55.66		25	26	Redskins	18.58
T10	12	Chiefs	44.23		26	22	Packers	15.22
T10	10	Giants	44.23		27	27	Texans	13.50
12	11	Saints	44.06		28	30	Titans	10.78
13	14	Bengals	43.03		29	28	Cardinals	10.73
14	13	Steelers	42.51		30	29	49ers	10.28
15	17	Panthers	39.89		31	32	Bucs	2.46
16	16	Seahawks	32.81		32	31	Raiders	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Jets, Eagles, Falcons. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers, Bengals, Vikings, Rams.

Week 10: Everyone's a loser

Well, now this is strange. In your typical week this season, I manage to predict all the gimme games correctly and whiff on the difficult matchups. In Week 10, however, I got most of the gimme games wrong -- as did nearly everyone else -- but was perfect on the tough matchups. I have no idea what I'm doing anymore. Wait, yes I do: At one point I had lost or was behind in nine of the 10 early games, and I actually started rooting for my picks to lose. From that point on, I was unbeatable. Next week I start charging $100 to root against your favorite team.

We're still waiting for our baby boy to show up, so let's make this quick.

CORRECT PICKS
San Diego 49, Cincinnati 41: First thirty minutes: Bengals 28, Chargers 7. Final thirty minutes: Chargers 42, Bengals 13. Can't anybody finish?

Baltimore 27, Tennessee 26: First twenty minutes: Titans 26, Ravens 7. Final forty minutes: Ravens 20, Titans 0. Can't anybody finish?

Philadelphia 27, Washington 3: Hey, someone finished! The Redskins learned the hard way, yet again, that when you "find a way to win" that doesn't involve outplaying the other team -- as they did last week against the Cowboys -- it's indicative of exactly nothing. The locals have been howling for the Jason Campbell era to begin but, really, would it make any sort of difference? Probably not. Hey, Campbell's starting next week!

Indianapolis 17, Buffalo 16: The Colts are going to need shovels if they continue playing down to the level of some of these opponents, but "it is what it is." For the second straight year, Indy is 9-0. But while in 2005 they won those games by an average of 14 points, this year they're winning by an average of 7 (take out the Texans game, and it's down to 5). Hell, even the stiffs on the '72 Dolphins won by 15 a game.

Denver 17, Oakland 13: I've never seen a good game that ended 17-13 or 27-10. This was no exception. Denver was supposed to win, but God, not like this.

Dallas 27, Arizona 10: This week's least surprising result.

Seattle 24, St. Louis 22: Hoo-boy. Four straight losses for the Rams. That'll learn me to say that St. Louis could take back the division.

Pittsburgh 38, New Orleans 31: The Saints are definitely for real, and they'll be playing in January as a result. The Steelers are definitely sloppy and unfocused, and they'll be home in January as a result. But in this game, a close match that went back and forth all afternoon, the difference was the Saints making the kinds of mistakes (hold onto the ball!) that have killed the Steelers all year. I picked the Steelers to win, but not like that.

Chicago 38, N.Y. Giants 20: Forget the 108-yard missed-FG return by the Bears' Devin Hester. This game was already over by then. In ended late in the first half, in Chicago territory. The Giants had the Bears backed up, 3rd-and-22 from their own 28. New York was this close to staking its claim as the team to beat in the NFC. Then Thomas Jones, just trying to gain a little more room for a punt, gains 26 yards. Big Blue goes Big Brown all down its leg, and the momentum moves to Chicago.

Carolina 24, Tampa Bay 10: Well, I should think so.

INCORRECT PICKS
Houston 13, Jacksonville 10: David Garrard: All he does is win! As much as the Texans are capable of owning anyone, they own the Jaguars. In five years in the league, Houston has swept a season series three times; twice, it was against the Jaguars. They've shut out an opponent just once: the Jaguars. They've won a game by 20 points just twice: both times, against the Jaguars. They're 6-4 against Jacksonville, 15-48 against the rest of the league. The Texans stink, and the Jaguars are their leedle beaches.

San Francisco 19, Detroit 13: Taking nothing away from the 49ers, who are clearly improving -- after all, in the past couple years, they couldn't even be counted on to beat bad teams -- but who in Detroit thought that Jon Kitna was going to be the answer? What was the question? Forget I asked.

N.Y. Jets 17, New England 14
Miami 13, Kansas City 10
So which is more surprising: the Dolphins' two-game winning streak, considering their level of play in the first half of the season, or the Patriots' two-game losing streak, considering they hadn't dropped consecutive games since 2002? Well, the Pats' losses were to rivals, both recent (Colts) and traditional (Jets), and you just never know what's gonna happen in rivalry games. The Dolphins, meanwhile, beat the Bears and the Chiefs. Despite what happened in 1985, before any of us were even born, there is no Dolphins-Bears rivalry. Sorry. Maybe Miami caught Chicago sleeping. It happens. But you'd think that the Dolphins' surprising win would have given the Chiefs a heads-up, but with a Herm Edwards-coached team, you never know what you're going to get. Moving on, the idea of Joey Harrington winning two straight is at least as surprising as Tom Brady losing two straight. So in the final analysis, I guess I'll go with the Dolphins' streak as the more surprising.

Cleveland 17, Atlanta 13: Here's a two-game streak that isn't terribly surprising: consecutive putrid performances from Michael Vick. On Sunday, he was 16-of-40 for 197 yards, 1 TD and two interceptions. Plus, he fumbled the ball away with the game on the line without even being touched. Vick had two good games in a row before tanking vs. Detroit and Cleveland, so maybe that's it for the year.

Green Bay 23, Minnesota 17: I think this is three straight Vikings-Packers games that I've blown.

THIS WEEK: 10-6
SEASON: 86-58 (59.7%)
(2005 through Week 10: 94-50)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 10
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: W10 = This week's ranking. WK9 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

W10	WK9	TEAM	POW		W10	WK9	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	21	Panthers	36.08
2	2	Chargers	80.50		18	16	Vikings	36.06
3	3	Patriots	73.31		19	18	Rams	34.72
4	5	Jaguars	69.55		20	20	Dolphins	30.93
5	4	Ravens	68.97		21	22	Jets	29.71
6	7	Cowboys	68.54		22	23	Packers	29.49
7	10	Eagles	68.17		23	25	Browns	26.14
8	6	Broncos	67.86		24	24	Lions	23.64
9	9	Colts	62.17		25	26	Bills	22.64
10	8	Giants	53.69		26	19	Redskins	20.96
11	11	Saints	52.83		27	32	Texans	14.78
12	12	Chiefs	45.93		28	27	Cardinals	9.03
13	15	Steelers	44.36		29	29	49ers	8.99
14	13	Bengals	41.15		30	28	Titans	3.88
15	14	Falcons	41.08		31	31	Raiders	1.41
16	17	Seahawks	37.61		32	30	Bucs	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Bengals, Vikings, Rams. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers, Steelers, Packers.

Week 9, PDQ

Another week, another detestable 6-8 record. You know, just once it'd be nice for NFC teams to aspire to something besides an 8-8 record. My son is due any day now, so we'll keep this short.

CORRECT PICKS
Baltimore 26, Cincinnati 20: The CBS microphones caught one of the head coaches in a profanity-laced tirade (1 "god-damned," 1 "fucking"). The crazy thing is, it wasn't even Marvin Lewis.

Jacksonville 37, Tennessee 7: After the Jaguars beat Houston next week, it's going to be next to impossible for Jack Del Rio to put Byron Leftwich back in. I'm not saying he shouldn't.

New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 14: Every week I'm going to remind Jimmy Johnson that after seeing Bruce Gradkowski play all of one half, against the Saints in Week 4, he said Gradkowski may have taken Chris Simms' starting job for good.

N.Y. Giants 14, Houston 10: I can't decide which I liked better: Total ass Jeremy Shockey having his head all but caved in at the goal line, or total ass Jeremy Shockey dropping yet another sure TD catch as a result.

San Diego 32, Cleveland 25: It shouldn't be so damned hard for as good a team as the Chargers to put away as sorry a team as the Browns. Unless the Chargers aren't so good or the Browns aren't so sorry, or a sliding scale of the two.

Seattle 16, Oakland 0: Oakland gives up nine sacks, Randy Moss drops everything thrown his way, the Raiders' only noteworthy play was a knee to the balls, and the Seahawks only win 16-0? I've just got a bad feeling about this.

CORRECT PICKS
Miami 31, Chicago 13: The come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals proves that even when they don't play their best, even when they turn the ball over six times, the Bears still find a way to win. They're gonna go undefeated!

Kansas City 31, St. Louis 17: The Chiefs are always tough to beat in Missouri.

Detroit 30, Atlanta 14: Remember, we were all supposed to think Michael Vick had turned the corner based on his performance against Pittsburgh (now 2-6) and Cincinnati (4-4).

Buffalo 24, Green Bay 10: Remember, we were all supposed to thing the Packers had turned the corner based on their performance against Miami (now 2-6) and Arizona (1-7).

Washington 22, Dallas 19: Bill Parcells gave his whole team mono.

Denver 31, Pittsburgh 20: Ben Roethlisberger keeps throwing those passes up there as if the laws of physics apply differently when you're the defending champion.

San Francisco 9, Minnesota 3: There's disappointment, but not really shame, in getting shut down by the New England defense on a Monday night. There's really nothing but shame in getting shut down by the San Francisco defense on a Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis 27, New England 20: I turned on the radio today only long enough to hear Colin Cowherd, the most superfluous blowhard in all of sports talk, argue that until Peyton Manning wins the Super Bowl, he's always going to say Tom Brady is the better quarterback. What a startlingly original line of thinking. What a cutting-edge argument. What a controversial stance.

THIS WEEK: 6-8
SEASON: 76-52 (59.4%)
(2005 through Week 9: 86-44)

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KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 9
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK9 = This week's ranking. WK8 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)

WK9	WK8	TEAM	POW		WK9	WK8	TEAM	POW
1	1	Bears	100.00		17	19	Seahawks	36.49
2	2	Chargers	85.04		18	17	Rams	35.03
3	3	Patriots	76.90		19	22	Redskins	30.01
4	4	Ravens	72.57		20	24	Dolphins	29.09
5	9	Jaguars	72.32		21	20	Panthers	28.98
6	6	Broncos	67.79		22	21	Jets	27.98
7	5	Cowboys	63.79		23	18	Packers	26.31
8	7	Giants	63.13		24	25	Lions	25.24
9	8	Colts	62.80		25	23	Browns	23.40
10	10	Eagles	59.89		26	28	Bills	21.81
11	11	Saints	57.50		27	26	Cardinals	14.24
12	16	Chiefs	47.38		28	29	Titans	12.66
13	13	Bengals	44.57		29	32	49ers	5.29
14	12	Falcons	42.91		30	31	Bucs	4.01
15	14	Steelers	38.85		31	30	Raiders	0.65
16	15	Vikings	36.49		32	27	Texans	0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Steelers, Packers. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers.