Saturday, October 15, 2005

Make my vocabulary error an XL

When is 40 not 40? When it's 39!

The NFL is running a series of image advertising spots on ESPN, the NFL Network and other outlets designed to get fans all lathered up for Super Bowl XL in Detroit. The ads feature the tagline "The Road to Forty" and refer to the coming game as the "40th Anniversary" of the Super Bowl. As someone who works with the language, they piss me off. Anyone else see why?

Super Bowl I was played on Jan. 15, 1967. Imagine you got married on that day. When would your first anniversary be? In January 1968. Now, what game was played in January 1968? Super Bowl II. Thus the first anniversary of the Super Bowl would actually be the second game played. And the 40th anniversary of the Super Bowl will be in 2007, not 2006. The game being played at Ford Field on Feb. 5 is indeed Super Bowl XL, but it's only the 39th anniversary of the Super Bowl.

The designers of the "Road to Forty" campaign will of course argue that the first occurrence of something constitutes the first anniversary, which is patent nonsense. Your wedding day is your wedding day; your first anniversary comes a year later. The word "anniversary" comes to us from the Latin anniversarius, meaning "the turn of the year." By definition, it's not an anniversary unless a year or a multiple of years has passed (and no, there's no such thing as a "six-month anniversary").

A final point I could make is that, strictly speaking, an anniversary is an annual commemoration of an event in the past. Calling this game the 40th -- or even 39th -- anniversary of the Super Bowl is to say the (one and only) Super Bowl occurred 40 (or 39) years ago, and what's happening now is just a commemoration of that game. It'd be accurate to call the game in Detroit the 39th birthday of the Super Bowl. But you know what? I'll let that slide.

(I fought this same battle in 1992 as a rookie copy editor at The Des Moines Register. That newspaper holds an annual bicycle ride across the state. The first RAGBRAI (as it came to be called) took place in 1973. In 1992, we were up to RAGBRAI XX. So naturally, as copy started to come in, story after story referred to the event as "RAGBRAI's 20th anniversary." Though I was a young'un, people actually listened to my higher-math argument that 1992 minus 1973 equals 19, not 20. It was agreed that we would refer to the "20th running" or even "20th year" of RAGBRAI. I was even amenable to saying "RAGBRAI turns 20." I was flexible, dammit. Then we all got nice T-shirts, made by, I think, the marketing department, that said "20th Anniversary RAGBRAI." You win some, you lose some.

Friday, October 14, 2005

Week 6 picks

My picks for Week 6 are posted over at The Writers' Picks. Last week's 8-6 showing wasn't exactly one to write home about, but I nevertheless moved up a spot in the standings. I'm now tied with three others in fourth place. Monsters of the Midway has moved to No. 1. I see I've wandered out rather far onto a limb by picking Detroit at home over Carolina, Cleveland on the road over Baltimore and Oakland at home over San Diego. We'll see.

Stupor Bowl I-XV

Want to start a long, pointless football debate that will probably turn personal? Ask a group of fans: What was the greatest team in NFL history? You're likely to hear the 1972 Dolphins, or the 1985 Bears, or an old-schooler might chime in with the 1962 Packers, and of course someone will have to holler about the Patriots. But I can guarantee you won't get a consensus. OK, now ask: What's the worst team in NFL history? That's no contest: the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at 0-14 the only team in the Super Bowl era to lose every game. Getting a little more abstract: What's the worst "best" team in NFL history? In other words, what was the least impressive team to win the league championship? You can have a lot of fun with that one. My pick would be the 1988 San Francisco 49ers, but you can make a case for any number of teams. Go ahead and try it at home.

All of which is prelude to today's topic: What was the best worst team in NFL history? So much of sports commentary is about identifying the best of the best. Sometimes it's about finding the worst of the worst, and then piling on it with smug superiority. Me, I want to find the worst of the best -- the team that on first glance appears to be down in the absolute pits of the league, but on closer inspection turns out to be ... not as bad.

So where do we start? First, we have to come up with a benchmark for a truly dreadful season. Zero wins would be nice, but in the past 40 years, that's only happened twice: the 0-14 Bucs, mentioned above, and the 0-8-1 Colts in the strike-shortened 1982 season. Obviously the Bucs are the worst of the worst, and it wouldn't be fair to judge the Colts on only nine games (Frank Kush, you owe me).

So we go to the next-best (or next-worst) thing: one win. That hasn't happened often. Since the NFL went to the 16-game schedule in 1978, there have been 729 teams that played a full season. Of those 729, just seven -- fewer than 1% -- have finished 1-15. The only record that's been achieved less often is 15-1, done only four times (1984 49ers, 1985 Bears, 1998 Vikings, 2004 Steelers).

1-15. This is our benchmark. This is the sine qua non of a dreadful football team. And these are the contenders:

  • 1980 New Orleans Saints
  • 1989 Dallas Cowboys
  • 1990 New England Patriots
  • 1991 Indianapolis Colts
  • 1996 New York Jets
  • 2000 San Diego Chargers
  • 2001 Carolina Panthers
As we begin to break down these broken-down teams, we must forget everything we know about what happened to them in later years. Yes, the Cowboys and Panthers were both in the Super Bowl within three years. Yes, the Patriots were in the Super Bowl within six years, and the Colts were in the AFC title game in four. It's all irrelevant. The 1979 Buccaneers were in the NFC Championship Game -- but that doesn't mean the '76 Bucs were any less awful. We are scientists here, and such data is just noise. What we need are charts! Our first table deals with the basic units of success and failure in the NFL: points scored and points allowed. Down and Distance uses a formula of these numbers to produce the POW-R score, a jazzy sounding yet eerily accurate assessment of team strength. (POW-R is point differential as percentage of points scored; for more on the formula, read this.) The higher the POW-R score, the better the team. Since these are all god-awful teams that were each outscored by more than 100 points, their scores are all negative, so the closer to zero, the "better." Here's how they rank:

TEAMP.F.P.A.POW-R
'01 Panthers253410-23.68%
'96 Jets279454-23.87%
'00 Chargers269440-24.12%
'80 Saints291487-25.19%
'89 Cowboys204393-31.66%
'90 Patriots181446-42.27%
'91 Colts143381-45.42%

This gives us a little bit of separation, but just looking at points and POW-R doesn't so much tell us who's the best among them as it helps identify the worst: the '91 Colts. Their 143 points scored vs. 381 allowed means they were outscored an average of 24-9 per game. Ugh. A touchdown and a field goal were all it took to beat the Colts in an average week. As a matter of fact, the anemic 143 points Indy scored in 1991 are the second fewest since the league went to a 16-game schedule:

TEAMYEARPTSREC.
Seahawks 1992 140 2-14
Colts 1991 143 1-15
Browns 2000 161 3-13
Eagles 1998 161 3-13
Patriots 1990 181 1-15
Bengals 2000 185 4-12
Bengals 1998 187 3-13
Colts 1993 189 4-12
Buccaneers 1991 199 3-13
Bills 1985 200 2-14

In a just world, the 1992 Seahawks would be eligible for our little competition here, but they made the mistake of winning two games. And quite a mistake it was. One of the teams they beat was the Patriots, who also finished 2-14 that year. That Seattle victory gave New England the No. 1 pick in the draft, which became Drew Bledsoe. Seattle got Rick Mirer. But that 10-6 victory sure was sweet! Regardless, the fact that the '91 Colts and '90 Patriots both make this sorry list, too, is enough to eliminate them from competition. You can't be considered for Best 1-15 Team Ever if you're also a serious contender for Weakest Offense Ever.

Now that we've dealt with team performance over the course of a season, let's start looking at performance in individual games. The teams have equal 1-15 records, but not all individual losses are equal. Was a team getting blown out week after week, or were they keeping it close? Were they at least putting points on the board, even if it wasn't enough to win? And, most important, were they getting shut out? The POW-R formula detests shutouts and assigns them the lowest possible score: -100%. It doesn't matter whether you get shut out 6-0 or 52-0, you still get a -100% for your efforts. In fact, losing 6-0 is arguably worse than 52-0, because it means all you had to do to win was score one measly touchdown and you couldn't do it.

So let's look at how they lost. Here are the number of times each team was shut out; the number of times they scored fewer than 10 points; the number of times they lost by a field goal or less; the number of times they lost by a touchdown or less; and the number of times they were blown out by at least three touchdowns:


TEAM
SHUT
OUT
SCORED
-10 PTS
LOST BY
1-3 PTS
LOST BY
1-7 PTS
LOST BY
21+ PTS
'80 Saints 03342
'89 Cowboys 34143
'90 Patriots15446
'91 Colts 211034
'96 Jets 03375
'00 Chargers04664
'01 Panthers05684

(Note the Colts' horrid offense and the Patriots' weak defense. Further evidence of why they've already been eliminated.) The three shutouts on the '89 Cowboys are what dragged down their POW-R rating the most and, frankly, are enough to disqualify them at this stage. True, the shutouts came at the hands of the 12-4 Giants (15-0), the 11-5 Eagles (27-0) and the 9-7 Saints (28-0), but the '96 Jets, '00 Chargers and '01 Panthers played a lot of winners (at least eight games each against playoff teams) and never got shut out. The Panthers played both Super Bowl teams, including the Rams twice, and kept the goose egg off the scoreboard.

Moving across the chart, we see pretty good evidence of which teams represent the cream of this ragged crop. The Panthers and Chargers came within a field goal of victory in six of their 15 losses. Further, the Panthers came within a touchdown in more than half their losses, and the Jets were within a TD in seven of 15. The Saints? They scored more points than the other teams, but they gave up a lot more, too. They didn't come close all that often; they didn't get blown out all that often. They just lost a lot of games by 14 or so points. They aren't serious contenders.

This brings us to the final variable: strength of schedule. Let's take each team's opponents and combine their records -- minus, of course, the 16 games played against our Magnificent Seven. We find that the opponents' records are clustered pretty close to each other, with one notable and predictable exception:

TEAMOPP REC.PCT.P.O. TMS
'90 Patriots137-103 .5719
'89 Cowboys 134-105-1.5606
'01 Panthers132-108 .5508
'96 Jets 130-110 .5429
'00 Chargers130-110 .5428
'80 Saints 124-116 .5175
'91 Colts 114-126 .4757

(Good gravy, the Colts!) The last column is the number of games each club played against teams that made the playoffs. Those numbers are roughly equal when you consider that from 1990 on, there were 12 teams instead of 10 in the playoffs. And some of those teams made the playoffs only because they had one of these 1-15 patsies on their schedules. In 1996, for example, the Colts got to go to the playoffs at 9-7 only because they beat up on the hapless Jets twice. What I'm saying is, the number of playoff teams on the schedule isn't as reliable an indicator as the overall strength.

So what's our conclusion? Of our final three contenders, the '01 Panthers had the toughest schedule. Playing that schedule -- which was only a hair easier than those at the top of the chart -- they were within a touchdown of victory in more than half the games. Their POW-R score is tops among the 1-15 clubs. Ladies and gentlemen, the best worst team in modern NFL history, your 2001 Carolina Panthers.

That's right. The only team to lose 15 consecutive games in a season is also the best team to lose 15 games in a season. I'm sure George Seifert feels vindicated.

Wednesday, October 12, 2005

What's 52-3 adjusted for inflation?

How bad was the beating the Packers laid on the Saints on Sunday? Let's put it this way: The 52-3 final score was Green Bay's most lopsided victory in almost 40 years and the second-biggest win in team history. Think about that a second. The Packers are one of the NFL's oldest franchises, coming into the league in 1921. In 84 seasons, the Pack has won only one game by a wider margin, and that was against an expansion team in the middle of losing its first nine games: Green Bay 56, Atlanta 3 in 1966.

So now you're wondering: What's the biggest win my team has ever posted, and how long ago was it? Glad you asked! Here are the NFL teams' largest victory margins. Listed are the team, their best margin, the final score of the game, the opponent and the year. Remember, these are the teams' top margins of victory, not necessarily the most points they have ever scored in a game. The Rams, for example, scored 70 in a game against the Colts in 1950 but also allowed 27, for a margin of "only" 43. Teams are ranked according to the size of their biggest wins, for a reason we'll get into below:

TeamPts.ScoreOpp.YearNote
Bears 73 73-0 WSH 1940 (1)
Eagles 64 64-0 CIN 1934 (2)
Cardinals 60 60-0 RCH 1923 (3)
Rams 59 59-0 ATL 1976 (4)
Browns 59 62-3 WSH 1954
Colts 56 56-0 GB 1958 (5)
Giants 56 56-0 PHI 1933
Steelers 56 63-7 NYG 1952
Falcons 55 62-7 NO 1973
Jaguars 55 62-7 MIA 1999 (6)
Titans 55 55-0 OAK 1961 (7)
Bengals 54 61-7 HOU 1989 (8)
Packers 53 56-3 ATL 1966
Patriots 53 56-3 NYJ 1979
Chiefs 52 59-7 DEN 1963
Dolphins 52 52-0 NE 1972
Raiders 51 51-0 DEN 1967
49ers 49 49-0 DET 1961
Cowboys 49 56-7 PHI 1966
Bills 48 51-3 LAR 1990 (9)
Vikings 48 51-3 CLE 1969
Chargers 46 53-7 NYJ 1963
Redskins 45 45-0 DET 1991
Seahawks 45 45-0 KC 1984
Lions 45 59-14 CLE 1957 (1)
Broncos 43 46-3 NYJ 1976
Saints 42 42-0 DEN 1988
Jets 42 45-3 HOU 1983 (8)
Bucs 41 41-0 DET 2001
Ravens 38 44-6 SF 2003
Panthers 32 45-13NO 1999 (10)
Texans 21 21-0 JAX 2004
NOTES: 1) NFL Championship Game. 2) vs. Cincinnati Reds. 3) as Chicago Cardinals, vs. Rochester Jeffersons. 4) as Los Angeles Rams. 5) as Baltimore Colts. 6) divisional playoff game. 7) as Houston Oilers. 8) vs. Houston Oilers. 9) AFC Championship Game. 10) the Panthers also beat the Rams by an identical 45-13 score in 1996.

Notice that the teams at the top of the list are among the NFL's oldest franchises: the Bears and Cardinals (entered the league in 1920), Giants (1925), Eagles and Steelers (1933), and Rams (1937). There are a couple reasons for that. First is just simple probability: The older the team, the more games it has played and the more opportunities it has had to blow someone out.

More important is the nature of the league in its formative years. At the start, the NFL wasn't a league at all. It was an association (the American Professional Football Association) -- and a loose association at that. Some teams were truly professional. Others were merely club teams of college and semipro players. Some were all-star squads that barnstormed the country. (The Los Angeles Buccaneers of 1926, for example, played 10 games, all on the road. The Kansas City Cowboys of 1925-26 played two home games and 18 on the road.)

In the early years, teams would pop up, play a couple years, then drop out, sometimes in mid-season. When a "real" team met one of these traveling circuses, the results were usually grisly. Take the Cardinals' 60-0 victory in 1923. Their opponent was the Rochester Jeffersons, who played all of four games that year and lost them all by a combined score of 141-6. In their six years in the league, 1920-25, they put up a record of 2-25-2, were shut out 17 times and were outscored 580-150. Take out their 45-0 victory over the Tonawanda Kardex in 1921 -- and you should, because it's the only game the Kardex ever played -- and they were 1-25-2 and were outscored 580-105. Regardless, the Jeffersons were recognized as an NFL franchise, and the Cardinals' 60 points are therefore recognized in the record books.

It's kind of fitting, because today the Cardinals are one of those semipro franchises that the real teams pad their stats against.

Similarly, the team that the Eagles beat 64-0 in 1934 wasn't the Cincinnati Bengals (they wouldn't come along until 1968), but the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds played only two years, 1933-34. In their 18 games they were 3-14-1, got shut out 11 times and were outscored 353-48. You know, a real powerhouse.

Speaking of the Cincinnati Reds: It was common for teams in the upstart NFL to adopt the name of the local baseball team; sometimes the clubs were even affiliated. At various times in the 1920s and '30s, the NFL had teams named the Washington Senators, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees. The Brooklyn Dodgers of the NFL played from 1930 to 1944. The Washington Redskins began life in 1932 as the Boston Braves, sharing a name with the baseball team that eventually moved to Milwaukee, then Atlanta. After one year, the football Braves went ahead and picked an even more inflammatory nickname. They moved to Washington in '37. The Steelers spent their first eight years (1933-40) as the Pittsburgh Pirates. The only remnant of this trend is the New York Giants, who shared a name and the Polo Grounds with the baseball Giants before that club decamped to San Francisco. The history lives on in the phrase "New York football Giants." From 1960 to 1987, St. Louis had both a baseball team and a football team named the Cardinals. That was a coincidence. The Cardinals spent their first 40 years in Chicago before parking in St. Louis en route to Arizona. (Oh, and the Rams that St. Louis then "stole" from Los Angeles? Los Angeles stole them from Cleveland. Franchises following the money is hardly a new development. More on that in the future.)

So there's the football history lesson for the day. Hanging 52 points on a hapless team that is spending the entire season on the road? That's old school, man.

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Week 5 postmortem

Considering that at one point during Sunday's early games I was ahead in only one game and behind in seven, finishing 8-6 in my picks for Week 5 isn't so bad. Still, it would have been nice if the San Diego defense had shown a little more backbone 'round midnight.

What I got right and what I got wrong:

CORRECT PICKS
Green Bay over New Orleans: I'm going to start renting out my opinions. Whenever I declare a player or team "done," they totally ring it up. It was happy-making to see Brett Favre get his first win of the season in such jumbo fashion, but it was melancholy-making to watch those scrappy Saints lose by 49 points. Which is pretty telling about the state of affairs on the Gulf Coast, because I used to enjoy seeing Jim Haslett's team get pounded into a fine paste.

Detroit over Baltimore: It's going to be a long, long year for the Ravens. Their offense is going nowhere. Their defense has sniffed its own fumes so deeply that when the Lions weren't sufficiently intimidated -- see Kevin Jones go right through Ray Lewis? -- they freaked. Twenty-one penalties, one shy of the NFL record. Two ejections. The Broadcaster Line of the Day came after Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs bumped referee Mike Carey. "Take my word for it," said CBS analyst Steve Tasker, who was tossed by Carey in the last game of his 13-year career. "Mike Carey will throw you out of the game." And throw Suggs out Carey did. Soon after, Ravens DT Maake Kemoeatu was flagged for what Carey called an "unsightly gesture." And so on and so on and so on. Joey Harrington had another grisly outing, but somehow I never doubted it was going to be enough. Those who believe in karma might say this is what Brian Billick gets for calling that timeout late against the Colts.

Tennessee over Houston: Houston Oilers owner Bud Adams demanded that the city build his franchise a new stadium. The city stood on principle and told him to go pound salt. So Adams took his team to Tennessee. And the city, left without football, caved in and built a brand new stadium for a brand new team. Four years in, that brand new team is even worse than it was the day it first took the field -- so bad that it gets steamrolled by a Tennessee club gutted by cap problems and essentially playing at the expansion level. Good on ya, Houston taxpayer!

Cleveland over Chicago: No one thought it would be pretty. Quick: Which team will be the first to score 30 offensive points in a game this year: the Browns, the Bears or the Redskins? The answer ...

Denver over Washington: ... is none of the above! My wife called me from work to say that she'd heard people on the radio speculating about what it'll take for the Redskins to make the playoffs. Outbreaks of food-borne illness in New York, Philadelphia and Dallas, for starters. Last year, the Redskins could have been 13-3 if they had scored 22 points a game. This year, they'd be 4-0. Nice numbers on Mark Brunell, I must say.

Indianapolis over San Francisco: Running poor Alex Smith out there wasn't going to be the answer. Not Sunday, and not against the Colts. Smith was running for his life from the first snap, and he's lucky he was only sacked five times. He'll need the bye week, because next up are the Redskins, Bucs, Giants and Bears. As crummy as Smith's line was Sunday, the other quarterback in the game struggled, too. I'm guessing he bounces back.

Carolina over Arizona: For once Carolina was literally wandering in the desert. And another Kurt Warner Experiment leaves scorch marks on another city.

Jacksonville over Cincinnati: If I was had to get one wrong this week, I was hoping it'd be Jags-Bengals. Good signs for the Bengals: They weren't satisfied merely with playing it close, they felt they let a game get away that they should have won, and they were angry about it. Bad sign for the Bengals: Chad Johnson's pointing fingers. Despite all of it, if Palmer's fumble isn't accidentally kicked away by his own guy, the Bengals are in a spot to win.

INCORRECT PICKS
Miami over Buffalo: QB Substitutions Make Me Glad I'm Not a Gambler, Part I: Had I known J.P. Losman's career was, well, over, I might not have been so quick to pick the Dolphins. Mike Mularkey played coy about starting Kelly Holcomb, leaving me outta the loop until after I'd made my picks. I also didn't get the memo that said Miami planned to turn the ball over five times, plus set a franchise record for penalties in a game with 14 minutes to spare. Great job, boys!

Atlanta over New England: QB Substitutions Make Me Glad I'm Not a Gambler, Part II: Had I known Michael Vick was going to sit, I'd have definitely picked the Patriots. As it is, this is the fourth consecutive Patriots game that I've gotten wrong. Further thoughts: 1) On Atlanta's second series, Matt Schaub put passes onto the hands of Dez White and Michael Jenkins in New England territory. The receivers dropped both passes, and the Falcons had to punt. They make either of those catches, this is a completely different game -- one Schaub would have won. 2) Are we required to fawn all over Tom Brady and Adam Vinatieri for another miracle comeback if the Patriots defense had to blow a 15-point fourth-quarter lead to make it all possible? 3) After the game, Falcons coach Jim Mora said, "When a player is not ready to play, you are not going to put him out there in harm's way. To which Brady responded: "Don't think this team won't remember that, Mora."

Tampa Bay over N.Y. Jets: I forgot that this week Chad Pennington would be doing what he does best: standing on the sidelines with his arm in a sling, waving a towel. Dude was in the zone.

St. Louis over Seattle: First of all, the Seahawks never win on the road. Second of all, the Rams have owned the Seahawks for about two years now. Third of all, this is the NFC West, so I might as well have just flipped a damn coin. Meanwhile, watching the reply of the Rams' Chris Johnson running the opening kickoff back 99 yards, I noticed a Rams coach come running off the sidelines in celebration long before Johnson crossed the plane. The coach was 15 to 20 yards into the field of play when Johnson was still 15 yards out. Attention, league office: that phone you hear ringing and ringing? It's Mike Shanahan. Might as well pick up.

Philadelphia over Dallas: Last week, I wrote about how when the Eagles are down by three scores on the road, they don't panic; they just get to work. This week? Not so much. I really believed that when the Eagles went down 17 to the Cowboys in the first quarter, they had Dallas right where they wanted them. Heh. Oh, and enough on Bledsoe vs. Keyshawn.

San Diego over Pittsburgh: I can't stand it.

THIS WEEK: 8-6
SEASON: 46-28




POW-R-'ANKINGS FOR WEEK 5
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet or any other -net. The formula behind them predicted 10 of the past 15 Super Bowl winners, and 14 of the past 15 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the POW-R-'ANKINGS system. Get it? Unlike with other, lesser ranking systems, no opinion is involved. None. This is hard-core science in a parlor full of poseurs. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: WK5 = This week's ranking. WK4 = Last week's ranking. PWR = POW-R centigrade score)
WK5WK4TEAMPWRWK5WK4TEAMPWR
11 Colts100.00 1717Jaguars40.89
22 Bengals75.93 18T15Chiefs40.27
33 Steelers69.65 1928Lions37.40
44 Bucs61.50 2023Browns33.49
58 Giants57.28 2120Patriots32.85
67 Chargers55.12 2218Rams32.69
721Packers54.14 2319Raiders32.02
86 Falcons53.75 2424Bills29.87
9T15Cowboys51.27 2526Titans29.76
105 Eagles50.14 2627Jets23.06
1112Seahawks48.812725Cardinals21.90
1211Broncos48.07 2829Vikings13.94
13T9Dolphins47.802930Ravens9.02
1414Panthers45.013022Saints6.37
1513Redskins43.76313149ers4.79
16T9Bears42.87 3232Texans0.00

Monday, October 10, 2005

No. 1 bad, boy

As 49ers rookie quarterback Alex Smith went under center in the second quarter against the Colts, CBS's Dick Enberg observed, "There's a lot to like about this young guy." On cue, Smith zipped a beautiful pass to wide-open Indianapolis linebacker Cato June, who ran it back for a touchdown. That was the kind of day Alex Smith had Sunday. Smith, the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft, was making his first start, and it appeared the Colts defense was going to make him earn his $51 million one nickel at a time. The numbers were brutal: 9 completions on 23 attempts for 74 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions.

Every rookie quarterback has rough days, as the former No. 1 pick on the other side of the field from Smith could attest. Peyton Manning would probably tell Smith that there's no place for him to go but up. Lord knows, with an 8.5 passer rating, there certainly isn't much room to fall. Here's how Smith's first start stacks up against the six other QBs who were picked No. 1 overall since the elder Manning in 1998:

QBC/AYdTDIntRtngFSOppW/L
2005A. SmithSF9-23740 48.5 1/5INDL
2004E. ManningNYG17-371621 245.0 1/10ATLL
2003C. PalmerCIN18-272482 1105.2 2/1at NYJL
2002D. CarrHOU10-221452 178.7 1/1DALW
2001M. VickATL4-12321 070.1 1/9DALW
1999T. CouchCLE12-241341 080.8 1/2at TENL
1998P. ManningIND21-373021 358.6 1/1MIAL
(FS=Season and game of first start. Opp=opponent in first start.)

There isn't a very polite way to put this, but these are awful numbers for Smith. But he was out there with an awful team. Carson Palmer had a full year to learn how to be a pro QB. And Eli Manning and Michael Vick got more than half a season. On the other hand, Peyton Manning, David Carr and Tim Couch were pretty much thrown right in the deep end with atrocious teams, and they were able to throw touchdowns (to someone wearing the same color clothes as them, that is). If there's any consolation for Smith, it's that Couch had a nice start but finished disastrously. It could just as easily work in the other direction.

Saturday, October 08, 2005

Stadiums from space

taylorfield
Dropping in from 60,000 feet to catch a game? Make sure you land in the correct spot. A bird's-eye guide to the stadiums of the NFL, via Google Maps satellite photos:

NFC EAST
Cowboys: Texas Stadium
Eagles: Lincoln Financial Field (under construction)
Giants: Giants Stadium
Redskins: FedEx Field

NFC NORTH
Bears: Soldier Field (under reconstruction)
Lions: Ford Field
Packers: Lambeau Field (low-res)
Vikings: Metrodome

NFC SOUTH
Buccaneers: Raymond James Stadium
Falcons: Georgia Dome
Panthers: Bank of America Stadium
Saints: Superdome (as we want to remember it)

NFC WEST
49ers: Monster Park (with game in progress!)
Cardinals: Sun Devil Stadium
Rams: Edward Jones Dome (as Trans World Dome)
Seahawks: Qwest Field

AFC EAST
Bills: Ralph Wilson Stadium
Dolphins: Dolphins Stadium (dressed for 2003 Orange Bowl!)
Jets: Giants Stadium
Patriots: Gilette Stadium (under construction)

AFC NORTH
Bengals: Paul Brown Stadium
Browns: Cleveland Browns Stadium
Ravens: M&T Bank Stadium
Steelers: Heinz Field

AFC SOUTH
Colts: RCA Dome
Jaguars: Alltel Stadium
Texans: Reliant Stadium (under construction)
Titans: The Coliseum (low-res)

AFC WEST
Broncos: Invesco Field at Mile High
Chargers: Qualcomm Stadium
Chiefs: Arrowhead Stadium
Raiders: McAfee Coliseum

In case you're wondering, that's Taylor Field, in Regina Saskatchewan, home of the Saskatchewan RoughRiders. The stadium sits smack in the middle of a residential neighborhood.

Friday, October 07, 2005

Week 5 picks

Oh yeah, we gots 14 more games that's ripe for the picking! My selections are on the board over at The Writers' Picks. Updated standings also posted. Bad muthafooka Down and Distance continues to hover near the top, tied with three others for fourth place out of the 32 or so folks in the game. Thank you so very much, badly flawed instant-replay system! Unlike last week, when no one did worse than 7-7 and two-thirds did 9-5 or better, I suspect Week 5 will be a little more all-over-the-board. There's only one unanimous pick: Colts over 49ers. The field seems evenly split on Ravens-Lions, Bears-Browns, Patriots-Falcons, Titans-Texans and Bengals-Jaguars. And there's significant uncertainty over Dolphins-Bills, Saints-Packers, Seahawks-Rams and Steelers-Chargers. And one brave soul picks the Redskins to beat the Broncos in Denver. Off the Internet, please, Mrs. Snyder!

Thursday, October 06, 2005

Me, Brett, Bart and the boys

I saw Brett Favre talking to the press last Monday night after the hard loss to the Panthers. The man looked awful: haggard, weary, out of answers. Spent. Kind of like the Packers franchise of late.

So much has been written about Favre the Man, Favre the Hero, Favre the Warrior, Favre the Metaphor, that some people are sick of hearing about him, while others are sick of hearing about how some people are sick of hearing about him. I won't get into that, except to say that the guy is two months older than me and looks more like 10 years. Though he's still a solid quarterback -- certainly better than the Anthony Wrights and A.J. Feeleys out there -- it's obvious he's coming to the end of the line. He'll retire, drop out of sight like he says he will, then turn up five years later in Canton.

But what of the Packers franchise?

Green Bay has been a contender for so long -- 12 winning seasons and one 8-8 in 13 years -- it's easy to forget that the team was a league also-ran and/or doormat for two decades. Between 1972, at the tail end of the Titletown years, and 1993, the first full season of the Favre-Holmgren renaissance(!), the Packers made the playoffs just once: in the strike-shortened 1982 season, when the playoffs were temporarily expanded from 10 teams to a 16-team tournament to try to make up lost revenue. Their 5-3-1 record that year was one of only three winning seasons in that 1973-93 span. (The others: 8-7-1 in 1978 and 10-6 in 1989. Neither was good enough for the playoffs.)

Growing up in Minneapolis, I didn't think much about the Green Bay Packers, even though they played in the NFC Central with the Vikings. It would be natural for teams in neighboring states like Minnesota and Wisconsin to have some kind of animosity, but the Packers always had more of a rivalry with the Chicago Bears. Those two had been in the NFL decades before Minnesota even had a team. The Vikes' main rival at the time was the Los Angeles Rams, whom they ran into every year in the playoffs.

Besides, when I started tuning in to football in the mid- to late 1970s, the Packers just weren't any good.

The coach at the time was Bart Starr, the Dave Campo of his day. It's a testament to the aura of the Starr name in Wisconsin that he lasted nine seasons as the Packers' coach. After three years, his teams were 13-29. After five, 32-46-2. And yet every year, here came Bart to lead the Green and Gold to another 5-11 finish. After nearly a decade of this, the Packers finally fired Starr. Come 1984, there was a new coach: Forrest Gregg, another hero of the Lombardi era -- though one who had coached the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl. Green Bay had a little less patience for Gregg, and he was gone after four years and a 25-37-1 record. Next up: Lindy Infante. The highlight of Infante's tenure was a 10-6 record in 1989 that won him NFC coach of the year and got Wisconsin all gassed up. But those wins came by 1, 2, 8, 3, 1, 4, 1, 1, 12 and 10 points. Winning that many close games is not a good sign, and the next two years the Packers were up to their old tricks at 6-10 and 4-12. Infante was fired, Mike Holmgren was brought in, and Green Bay was on its way back.

Throughout the whole brutal run, you could always count on the Packers to play the Vikings tough at home. Especially after the Vikings had moved indoors, and especially when the games in Green Bay (or Milwaukee) were played in November and December. Though the Vikings would usually lose, I still loved watching those games. I don't know why. Something about playing Green Bay -- the old-school nature of the team and the city, the NFL's last living link to the days of the Columbus Panhandles and the Minneapolis Marines and the Rock Island Independents. Company teams in small Midwestern cities, that sort of thing. I suppose it's the reason Chris Berman does his tired, John-Facenda-frozen-tundra-of-Lambeau-Field schtick.

While the Packers were letting coaches hang around way too long, they also tried out and discarded a series of quarterbacks: the immortal Jerry Tagge, the drifter John Concannon, the finished John Hadl, the unsinkable Carlos Brown. Lynn Dickey arrived in 1976 and stayed until 1985, throwing TDs and interceptions in equal numbers and occasionally being spelled by the likes of David Whitehurst and Randy Wright. As Dickey's tenure ended (overall passer rating as Packer: 71.4) in the mid-'80s, Gregg sprinkled in a few fellows whose best years were long ago and far away from northeastern Wisconsin: Jim Zorn, Vince Ferragamo, two-time USFL champ Chuck Fusina. Before the Robbie Bosco era could start, however, the Pack had their Majikal 1989 season.

I was in my sophomore year in college in the fall of 1989 and wasn't as interested in football as I was in getting drunk, getting women and getting drunk women. But it was hard not to notice that fans were abuzz over the Packers, particularly because my alma mater had a healthy Wisconsin contingent, who would gather with a party ball of Coors Light whenever the Packers were on TV (which wasn't often in the days before Sunday Ticket; usually only if they were playing the Bears). As the year wore on, it wasn't just the cheeseheads who were going gaga over the scrappy Packers. They were media darlings.

The '89 Packers are a story in and of themselves: So much hope -- Titletown is back! -- pinned to a team that had really accomplished so very little. Quarterback Don Majkowski -- runner-up for MVP! -- and the boys finished 10-6 on the strength of their Kardiak Komebacks, but no one examined what it meant that the team was always playing from behind or just barely ahead. It meant the same thing for the 1989 Packers that it did for the 1998 Cardinals: This was a bad team masquerading as a slightly-above-average one.

After two sorry seasons, Holmgren arrived from San Francisco in 1992. Majkowski would tear his rotator cuff that season and cede his starting job to Favre (who was going to get it anyway, but the injury was convenient; see the 2001 Patriots). The next year, Reggie White signed as a free agent. As much as Favre and Holmgren, White brought the Packers back to glory. White was one of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit that brought free agency to the NFL, and tiny, small-w-white Green Bay was the last place Reggie White could have been expected to sign. He said himself that he never imagined it. God, he said, had told him his destiny lay in San Francisco. But upon further review, White said, he came to understand that by San Francisco, God meant the core of Bill Walsh disciples that Holmgren had assembled in Wisconsin. So he signed. The first major NFL free agent contract: Reggie White to the Packers, of all damn places.

It was clear that something big was happening in Wisconsin. I'd moved into the work world and had landed at a newspaper full of Packer fans, who were whipping themselves into a frenzy. The national sports media, which had cared little about li'l bitty Green Bay since Joe Namath put on pantyhose, had rediscovered Lambeau Field. John Madden and Pat Summerall were coming 'round more and more frequently. Berman started in with the voice. And the Vikings? Suddenly they were unbeatable at Lambeau, winning 35-21 in 1991, 23-20 in 1992, 21-17 in 1993.

White's signing led to others. He lobbied black players to give Green Bay a chance, and they did: Sean Jones, Santana Dotson, Andre Rison and others. The team got better: 9-7, 9-7, and 11-5. The fan base grew. The team quit playing half its home games in Milwaukee and came home to Green Bay for good. They started beating the Vikings at home and occasionally in Minneapolis. They made the playoffs. They lost to the Cowboys. Everyone said Favre couldn't beat Dallas. Then, in 1996, Carolina beat Dallas, Green Bay beat Carolina, Green Bay beat New England and Titletown really, truly was back.

Remember who was MVP of Super Bowl XXXI? Desmond Howard. Doesn't matter, does it. The iconic image is of Favre, running across the field after the 54-yard TD to Rison, helmet raised high in the air (you used to not get punished for that). He was young, still on the ascent, not yet kicked in the teeth by life. Twenty-six years old. Not a gray hair on his head.

How time flies.

In-D

Last week we discussed the Indianapolis offense's slow start. The Colts were averaging an anemic (for Indy) 16 points per game before coming out of it Sunday and hanging 31 on a Tennessee team still in short pants. Before that, however, in their first three games combined, they scored all of 47 points, very nearly the lowest three-game output of the Peyton Manning era. And yet the Colts won all three of those games, thanks to the defense, which for years had struggled to hold teams to just three touchdowns a game.

The Colts offense reverted to form in Week 4, but the defense kept on playing like a mutha. The Indy D (the "In-D"?) surrendered only 10 points to the Titans -- 7 of them on a meaningless touchdown in the final minutes. In four games, Indianapolis has allowed a total of just 26 points. By comparison, last year the Colts gave up 27 or more in just one game seven times. Yes, it could be reasonably argued that they weren't exactly up against '99-Rams-quality offenses in the Ravens, Jaguars, Browns and Titans. But you can only play the teams on your schedule. And while I hardly think these are the '85 Bears here, I don't believe in pissing all over a team's accomplishments when the players do all you can ask of them. Besides, last year the Colts gave up 85 points -- about three touchdowns a game -- in their four games against the Jaguars and Titans.

That number -- 26 points in four games -- is utterly amazing, especially for this franchise. When's the last time a Colts team allowed so few points over four games? Answer: 1971, when Don McCafferty was the coach, the Colts were still in Baltimore, and the team was the defending Super Bowl champion. In Weeks 1-4 of the 1971 season, the Colts gave up just 17 points. Further, in the first five games of that year, they allowed only 24 points, and in the first six they gave up just 34. However, that's not the best Colts showing of the Super Bowl era. In 1968, under Don Shula, they allowed an astonishing 12 points over four games and 22 over six. (That was the team that got waxed by Broadway Joe in Super Bowl III while Johnny U sat on the bench.)

My point in digging up the Old Colt bodies is that the Colts haven't put up defensive numbers like this in more than 30 years. Since those glory days, it's been much (much, much, much) more common for the Colts to allow more than 100 points in a four-game span that to hold teams under, say, 60. In the 2-14 season of 1981 -- the absolute nadir for the franchise -- the team gave up a legendary 153 points in four straight losses (Chargers, 43-14; Browns, 42-28; Dolphins, 27-10; and Jets, 41-14). In 2001, Jim Mora's last year as coach, the Colts never surrendered fewer than 100 points in any four-game stretch. In the first three years, 2002-05, under Tony Dungy, the team has allowed an average of 83.3 points per four-game span.

'Scuse me for shouting, but: Do you understand now how out-of-character it is for a Colts team to hold its opponents to so few points?

Perhaps another chart will help. It's what we do best! Here are the fewest points allowed by the Colts in a span of four games in the Super Bowl era (1966-2005). Only games within a single season were considered, as personnel and schemes turn over from year to year. Also, in cases of overlapping four-game stretches, I've taken the single best four-game span:

PTS.YEARWKS.OPP.SCOREW/L
12196810-13STL27-0W
MIN 21-9 W
ATL 44-0 W
at GB 16-3 W
1719711-4NYJ 22-0W
CLE 13-14 L
at NE 23-3 W
at BUF 43-0 W
2620051-4at BAL24-7W
JAX 10-3 W
CLE 13-6 W
at TEN 31-10 W
3019706-9BOS 27-3W
MIA 35-0 W
at GB 13-10 W
BUF 17-17 T
32199213-16BUF16-13W
at NE 6-0 W
at NYJ 10-6 W
PHX 16-13 W
3319678-11GB 13-10W
at ATL 49-7 W
DET 41-7 W
at SF 26-9 W
34197110-13at MIA14-17L
at OAK 37-14 W
BUF 24-0 W
MIA 14-3 W

By next week, this chart will either be hopelessly out of date or recognized as so prescient that the Elias Sports Bureau will be knocking on my door with wheels of cheese and sacks of cash.

Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Who needs the next 13 weeks?

Maybe you've heard this nugget since Sunday's games wrapped up: "The Bengals are 4-0 for the first time since 1988, when they made their last Super Bowl appearance." Or this one: "The last time a Joe Gibbs team was 3-0, it was 1991 and the Redskins were on their way to winning Super Bowl XXVI." Or, in the other direction: "The Packers haven't lost their first four games since 1988, when Don Majkowski was their quarterback."

Why do we dig up these bits only for teams that are either unbeaten or winless? Couldn't we look at every team's record, combine it with that team's history and try to imply something about where the club is headed this season? We sure could, but we don't. Otherwise, we'd be pointing out what happened the last time New England started 2-2, and it just ain't fashionable to talk about that right now.

However, Down and Distance isn't afraid to shine the light of truth on tiny piles of insufficient data. Wherever there are numbers to be mined, we grab our canary cage and pickax and set off into the bowels of the Earth. Follow along as we see where your team is most likely to finish, based on how they've started this year:

(Key: '05=2005 start. YR=last year team started with this record. REC.=team's record that year. P?=whether team made playoffs that year)
AFC'05YRREC.P?RESULT
Cincinnati 4-0198812-4Y Lost Super Bowl
Indianapolis 4-0200312-4Y Lost championship game
Denver 3-1200410-6Y Lost wildcard round
Miami 2-1200310-6N
Pittsburgh 2-1200415-1Y Lost championship game
Jacksonville 2-220016-10N
Kansas City 2-220028-8 N
New England 2-2200314-2Y Won Super Bowl
San Diego 2-2200412-4Y Lost divisional round
Baltimore 1-220027-9 N
Cleveland 1-220044-12N
Buffalo 1-3199810-6Y Lost wildcard round
N.Y. Jets 1-320029-7 Y Lost divisional round
Oakland 1-319974-12N
Tennessee 1-320045-11N
Houston 0-3--------- (worst start ever)
NFC'05YRREC.P?RESULT
Tampa Bay 4-0199710-6Y Lost divisional round
Washington 3-0199114-2Y Won Super Bowl
Atlanta 3-1199814-2Y Lost Super Bowl
N.Y. Giants 3-120046-10N
Philadelphia 3-1200212-4Y Lost championship game
Carolina 2-219977-9 N
Dallas 2-220046-10N
New Orleans 2-220048-8 N
St. Louis 2-220048-8 Y Lost divisional round
Seattle 2-220019-7 N
Chicago 1-220045-11N
Detroit 1-220035-11N
Arizona 1-320046-10N
Minnesota 1-320015-11N
San Francisco 1-320037-9 N
Green Bay 0-419884-12N

As we can clearly see, New England and Washington will beat Cincinnati and Atlanta in Super Bowl XL. Another disappointing year for the Colts and the Steelers, as they fall to New England in the AFC Championship Game yet again. And the poor Eagles! Once again a bridesmaid! Finally, watch out for those plucky Houston Texans. They've never played like this before.

Week 4 postmortem

I went 11-3 this week in The Writers' Picks, my best showing of the year at 79% correct. Were it not for botched replay reviews in Cincinnati and Tampa, a missed field goal in Washington and a late decision to play defense by Carolina, I could have gone 7-7. And not just me. What I got right and what I got wrong:

CORRECT PICKS
New Orleans over Buffalo: The Saint Anthony Saints were playing their first real "home" game, against the increasingly feeble Bills. That makes for an easy pick. Buffalo's biggest highlight was also the Down and Distance Ultimately Meaningless Play of the Day: Terrence McGee's 81-yard kickoff return to end the first half. McGee probably covered 120 yards, north-to-south and east-to-west, before being brought down at the Saints' 5 yard line by -- well, by his own guys, really. Remember that year Carolina won its first game and lost the next 15?

N.Y. Giants over St. Louis: Oh sure. The week I stomp on Eli Manning with both feet is the week he goes All-World. The pass that put New York up 24-7, threaded between two Rams and dropped right on Plaxico Burress' shoulder, was astonishing. But what put this game away was the Rams' fumble on the Giants' 6 halfway through the third quarter, when they were down only 10. Yes, you have to get crafty when the field gets short -- but if you get fancy, you lose the ball, then the game: Botched pitch-lateral-reverse-thingee, Giants take over, Manning to Shockey for six.

Indianapolis over Tennessee: About damn time.

Cincinnati over Houston: I certainly wasn't going to pick Houston here, but a Texans win wouldn't really have surprised me. Yes, the Bengals were high and the Texans were low. But the Bengals have the Jags on national TV next week, while the Texans had two weeks' rest. Cincinnati was just asking to get caught looking ahead. That's why I didn't make this game my Best Bet. As it happened, I think the Bengals were looking ahead. They certainly weren't looking sharp. They nearly lost, thanks to a buffet of supid penalties (including a comical 24-yard grounding call on Carson Palmer, which led to 3rd and goal from the Houston 40), but they got a big boost from a botched replay review. With 3:20 left, Cincinnati recovered a David Carr "fumble" at the Houston 35. Though the replay appeared to clearly show that the fumble was in fact an incomplete pass, the ruling on the field stood and Cincy won. That's no way to win a Best Bet! Which leads me to ...

Tampa Bay over Detroit: This was my Best Bet. Tampa was 3-0 and looked impressive doing it. Detroit was 1-1 and looked awful. So of course this one went down to the wire, with Joey Harrington letting it all hang out in a bid to save the game. And his career. Detroit scored the "go-ahead touchdown" with 20 seconds left. Though the replay appeared to clearly show that Marcus Pollard caught the ball and got one butt cheek inbounds (one cheek = two feet), the TD was overturned on review and the Bucs went to 4-0. That's the way to win a Best Bet!

Washington over Seattle: This one played out as expected. I say a lot of cruel things about the Redskins, but their defense is for real. Washington isn't going to score 20 points -- not in regulation, at least -- but neither will most of their opponents. Just like last year. Of course, if Josh Brown makes that kick, we're having a different discussion and half of D.C. is calling for the Jason Campbell era to begin.

Atlanta over Minnesota: The Vikings' rebound lasts all of one game. I think we all saw that coming. Michael Vick gets injured. I think we all saw that coming, too. But I never imagined he'd get hurt because he stayed in the pocket. Matt Schaub ain't much in relief, but against Minnesota, not much is more than enough. Meanwhile, my wife has declared Alge Crumpler her favorite player. Because his name is Alge Crumpler.

Baltimore over N.Y. Jets: Every bit as hideous as expected.

Oakland over Dallas: The Raiders were by far the best winless team in the league. Dallas, meanwhile, had surprised the Chargers, had taken an ill-timed nap against the Redskins and had barely survived the 49ers. The Cowboys were making their third trip to the West Coast in four weeks, and they were facing an Oakland team that was angry -- as angry as Bill Parcells is now, probably. Easy call.

Philadelphia over Kansas City: I just had a feeling. The Eagles have been banged up, and the Chiefs are always tougher than leather at Arrowhead. But the Eagles have had the eye of the tiger since Atlanta. When they were down 24-6, you would have thought it was over. But that's the difference between KC and Philly. When the Chiefs went down by three scores on the road on Monday night, they packed it in. When the Eagles went down by three scores on the road on Sunday, they got it going on. It couldn't have helped the Chiefs to see their fans streaming out when they still were in the game.

Carolina over Green Bay: So far, these are two teams going nowhere, but the Packers appeared to be getting there faster. Until the fourth quarter, when John Fox decided to race 'em.

INCORRECT PICKS
New England over San Diego: A pattern was forming, and I missed it. Week 1: Cool and confident, New England comes from behind and beats Oakland. Week 2: The Patriots are humiliated in a bumbling loss to Carolina. Week 3: Cool and confident, New England comes from behind and beats Pittsburgh. Week 4: The Patriots are humiliated in a bumbling loss to San Diego. I guess the Pats will bounce back against the Falcons, then let Jake Plummer hang 55 on them. Back to this game: I couldn't help but notice Matt Cassel under center for the final series. If his last pass hadn't been intercepted for a TD, Tom Brady might have been suiting up for the Bills next year. Don't think it wouldn't happen.

Jacksonville over Denver: Week 1: Unsure what to do, I went with the Jaguars only because they were at home. They beat Seattle, though not very impressively. Week 2: More sure of what to do, I pick the Jags to lose, and they do, but impressively, taking the Colts to the last play. Week 3: Totally unsure of what to do, I pick the Jaguars to lose in New York. They win, though not very impressively, especially considering the Jets ran out of functioning QBs. So this week, with Jacksonville coming off a dramatic victory and playing at home against a Broncos team that I suspect (but can't prove) is hollow, I cast a confident vote for the Jaguars. And they get their brains beaten in.

San Francisco over Arizona: ¡Los Cardenales son peores que aparecen! I finally give up on the Cards, and look what happens. Ted Nolan, now can Alex Smith start?

THIS WEEK: 11-3
SEASON: 38-22




POW-R-'ANKINGS FOR WEEK 4
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet or any other -net. The formula behind them predicted 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners -- and 14 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the POW-R-'ANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser ranking systems, no opinion is involved. None. It's hard-core science in a parlor full of poseur magicians. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: WK4 = This week's ranking. WK3 = Last week's ranking. PWR = POW-R centigrade score)
WK4WK3TEAMPWRWK4WK3TEAMPWR
12 Colts 100.00179Jaguars46.30
21 Bengals 96.331815Rams 40.95
33 Steelers 86.771922Raiders39.75
45 Bucs 75.262018Patriots36.74
54 Eagles 73.402124Packers35.26
612Falcons 69.062228Saints35.19
711Chargers 66.842325Browns29.81
810Giants 64.862420Bills29.27
T9T6 Dolphins62.822530Cardinals27.59
T9T6 Bears 62.822621Titans25.94
1119 Broncos 56.392723Jets25.40
128 Seahawks56.152829Lions23.59
1313 Redskins55.762926Vikings21.78
1417 Panthers51.613031Ravens20.03
T1514Chiefs 47.95312749ers19.93
T1516Cowboys 47.953232Texans0.00

Sunday, October 02, 2005

George Michael, stat master

Uttered by global gasbag George Michael on this weekend's Redskins Report on Channel 4 in D.C.: "Only two teams in the National Football League have scored fewer points than the Washington Redskins."

These are the four lowest-scoring teams in the NFL, with their number of points scored:
  • Detroit: 23
  • Washington: 23
  • Baltimore: 17
  • Houston: 14
After three weeks of the season, 28 of the 32 NFL teams have played three games. Four teams have played only two games. These are the four teams that have played only two games:
  • Detroit
  • Washington
  • Baltimore
  • Houston

Friday, September 30, 2005

Week 4 picks

My Week 4 picks are up over at The Writers' Picks. Standings are also posted. I'm tied with five others for sixth place out of 34 participants (pickers?). I'd be proud that I'm eight games over .500 at 27-19, but I see that all except one participant are .500 or better. This prognostication is both easier and harder than it looks.

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Carson and Eli

I'm searching my soul trying to understand why I detest so viscerally the millionaire quarterback picked No. 1 in the 2004 draft at the same time I enjoy cheering for the millionaire quarterback picked No. 1 in the 2003 draft. I guess it boils down to an aphorism you might've heard from your grandpa, who would have attributed it to some football coach in the '20s: Winners play the hand they're dealt. Losers whine that the cards are stacked against them.

Going into the 2003 draft, the Cincinnati Bengals held the first pick. Considering their draft history, littered with the likes of Ki-Jana Carter and Peter Warrick, wthe team was more than willing to deal it away, but no one was sufficiently interested. The Bengals kicked the tires on a number of players, including Marshall quarterback Byron Leftwich, Michigan State receiver Charles Rogers and Kansas State corner Terence Newman, before settling on Southern Cal quarterback Carson Palmer.

Now, if any team had a reputation as a Mickey Mouse outfit, it was the Cincinnati Bungles. They'd gone a typically lousy 2-14 the year before and an obscene 19-61 over five years. They'd taken two quarterbacks in the first round -- David Klingler in 1992 and Akili Smith in 1999 -- whom they threw into the deep end as rookies and watched drown. The team was notoriously cheap and hadn't been to the playoffs since 1990.

And if any player had an incentive to ask -- plead -- that he not be that No. 1 pick, it was Carson Palmer. He'd won the Heisman Trophy. He'd helped rebuild Southern Cal into the juggernaut that it remains today. He had spent a lifetime as a winner and probably had little desire to join a group of chronic losers. He was a Southern California kid and probably would have preferred not to settle down to a life of working outdoors in December in sunny southwest Ohio.

Nevertheless, Palmer sent his agent to sit down with the Bengals. (The team with the first pick is the only one allowed to negotiate with a player before the draft.) Two days before the draft, and with a minimum of noise, a deal was in place with close to $20 million in guaranteed money. Some agent, huh? Palmer appeared to think so: "I really didn't get too involved in it," he told NFL.com. "I just kind of went with the flow and did whatever (my agent) told me to do."

That's one way to put it. Look, credit for the particulars of the contract may have gone with the agent, but the person most reponsible for getting this deal done at all was the client himself. If Palmer didn't want to be a Bengal, his agent could have played chicken, and Cincinnati probably would have swerved. But the decision was Palmer's to make, not his agent's. See, despite all the fingers pointed at "difficult" agents -- Drew Rosenhaus, Scott Boras, et al -- the players set the tone for negotiations. Agents take direction from their clients. It's unethical for them to do otherwise. If the player wants to be under contract and in camp at a certain time, he will be. (And if the player doesn't want to sign, or wants more money, or wants out of his contract, or whatever, the agent will work to make it happen -- and will take the heat for it. Think Terrell Owens' holdout was Rosenhaus' idea? Think again.)

On Draft Day 2003, then, Cincinnati announced that Palmer was the first pick, he got up and put on the hat and held up the jersey, and the smile on his face was genuine. He had committed to the team -- and had accepted his role on it. Marvin Lewis told him that he was going to spend his first year as a backup to Jon Kitna. Palmer said OK. From NFL.com:
It will give me a chance to learn instead of being like David Carr and getting thrown in there right away. I think it's great as a quarterback to be able to sit back and learn. It's a lot easier to learn the game on the sideline than it is on the field. To see things unfold and all the defenses and to watch another quarterback make plays and make mistakes, I think you can learn a lot from that. It sounds like I'm going to get that opportunity.
People heard that and said, "Oh, he's just saying the right things." And he was. I have no doubt that he would have preferred to play from Day One. But it wasn't going to happen, and if he had spent his rookie year complaining about sitting on the bench, he'd have poisoned his relationship with the team, alienated the city and earned a reputation around the league as a strong arm connected to a weak head. (Like, say the millionaire quarterback picked No. 1 in the 1990 draft.) Instead, he sat, he practiced, he learned, and today he's the hottest quarterback in the NFL.

Flash forward a year.

Going into the 2004 draft, the San Diego Chargers held the first pick and were looking for their quarterback of the future. Again. The club had been burned in 1998 when it took the unhinged Ryan Leaf as their quarterback of the future with the No. 2 pick. Still smarting three years later, the Chargers traded the No. 1 pick in 2001 to Atlanta, who used it on Michael Vick, their quarterback of the future. The Chargers came out of the deal with LaDanian Tomlinson and Drew Brees, their quarterback of the future. After two years, Brees was still stuck in the nondescript present.

San Diego had gone 4-12 in 2003, the very definition of a non-factor, and 26-54 over five years. Their options at QB in the draft were Eli Manning of Ole Miss and Philip Rivers of North Carolina State. (No one seemed all that impressed with Miami of Ohio's Ben Roethlisberger, so, you know ...) Manning had the pedigree, just like Jeff Kemp, and more important, the hype. San Diego believed that hype. Unfortunately, so did the Manning clan. In a frankly appalling display of the same kind of sense of entitlement that we despise in poor people, Manning decided that San Diego just wasn't the right fit for a future Hall of Famer like himself. So he told the Chargers that. Or, more accurately, he had his agent and daddy tell the Chargers that.

And what team would his highness prefer to play for? The New York Giants, of course, who had also just finished 4-12 and had fired coach Jim Fassel, the quarterback guru who rescued Kerry Collins' career and made a winner out of Danny Kannell. A perfect fit for a young QB! The media exposure one gets in New York as opposed to San Diego had absolutely nothing to do with it, and shame on you for thinking otherwise.

Eli Manning's father, Archie (125 career TDs, 173 interceptions), said this week that he had been told by people within the Chargers organization, "Don't let your son come here." Maybe, but it sounds like something he heard because he was listening for it. As in, "Well, Archie, if it's so important that Eli get a chance to appear on The Bachelor, then don't let your son come here."

Ultimately, the Chargers went ahead and picked Manning, not because they were calling his bluff but because they had worked out a trade deal with the Giants. They appear not to have told Eli, though, and he had to get up there and hold up the Chargers jersey and hat and force a smile and look like a sucker, a punk and a sissy in front of all the hard-core fans watching at home. When he found out what was really going down, he told NFL.com, "I'm a lot happier now than I was 10 minutes ago." That was honest, at least. And: "We wanted a trade to happen." True, true! And: "We never had favorite teams." Liar.

Manning fans will point out that in 1983, John Elway refused to play for the Baltimore Colts, warned them not to choose him with the No. 1 pick, and forced a trade to Denver. Yes, but at least Elway did his own dirty work. And still he spent years trying to live the episode down. Elway was immediately tabbed a crybaby, a label that stuck until he had lost three Super Bowls. Then he was a crybaby and a loser. It wasn't until the twilight of his career, when the Broncos won two NFL titles, that he finally put it behind him. Manning should be so lucky. Even if he makes it to the Super Bowl, he'll have to hear about how his brother should be the one in the big game, and how he got to go only because he plays in the weak NFC.

So Manning got to New York and was told he'd have to sit behind Kurt Warner. Nobody expected him to like it, either, and he didn't. You could see it in his face.

No one can say now who will be the better quarterback, Carson Palmer or Eli Manning. But I can say that one is a hell of a lot easier to pull for.

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Ice Colts

The Elias Sports Bureau reports that the 2005 Indianapolis Colts are just the sixth team since World War II to hold its first three opponents to single digits. My wife loves ridiculous stats like that, but it's nevertheless a hell of an accomplishment -- especially for the Colts, whose "defensive" scheme has traditionally been to put up 20 more points than the other team. How far has the Colts defense come? Indianapolis' opponents have scored a combined 16 points in three games. In the Colts' previous 112 regular season games -- from 1998-2004, the Peyton Manning era -- their opponents scored more than 16 points in a single game 82 times, or 73% of the time. The improvement is stark, and remarkable.

But I ask again, as I have every week: What's up with the offense? I understand that the Colts have faced three tough defenses: the Ravens, the Jaguars and Romeo Crennel's rebuilt Browns. But they've scored only 47 points in three games -- and seven of those points came on an interception return. Teams around the league are finally catching on to what Bill Belichick has been doing for several years. Defenders are bouncing around before the snap, switching looks to confound Manning's audibles. They're jamming Colts receivers repeatedly within the 5-yard contact zone, throwing off their timing. The Colts have responded by going to the run, and Edgerrin James is pounding it out, no doubt. Yet, the team that averaged 33 points a game last year is averaging less than 16 in 2005. The offense has four touchdowns and four field goals. Peyton Manning averaged three passing TDs a game in 2004 but has just two in three games in 2005, none since Week 1.

The 47 points the Colts have scored is their lowest output over a three-game span since the middle of the 2002 season. Here are the bleakest scoring stretches for the Colts since Manning took over as quarterback in 1998:

PTS.YEARWKS.OPP.SCOREW/L
4019981-4MIA15-24L
at NE6-29L
at NYJ6-44L
NO13-19L
4620027-9at PIT10-28L
at WSH21-26L
TEN15-23L
4720051-3at BAL24-7W
JAX10-3W
CLE13-6W
4820013-6at NE13-44L
--bye----bye----bye--
OAK18-23L
NE17-38L

What jumps out here: 1) This is the first time the Colts have been so anemic during a winning streak. That's a credit to the defense. 2) The Manning-led Colts' lowest-scoring stretch of all was the first four games of 1998. Those were also Manning's first four games as a pro. The team finished 3-13 in 1998. (Manning's backup that year was Kelly Holcomb. Suppose the fans in Indy were calling for him? Probably. Memo to J.P. Losman: Holcomb is the most popular guy wherever he doesn't play.) 3) The 48-point stretch in 2001 included two games against the Super Bowl-champions-to-be Patriots. Those were two of the first four games Tom Brady started. Brady may own the Colts, but the Colts made Brady.

The Colts' next four games are against the Titans, 49ers, Rams and Texans. If they can't get the offense back on track against those leaky defenses, there's going to be real trouble when they play New England, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville (again). Of course, they'll also play the Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans (again), Texans (again) and Chargers. So they could stay in the same rut and still go 12-4.

But good Lord, it'd be nice to see some touchdowns.

Week 3 postmortem

This is a little better. I went 9-5 for the week with my picks. A pretty good step up from last week, especially considering that I was on the wrong end of only one blowout. By the end of Sunday, my four losses had come by a combined 20 points. Then Denver-Kansas City came along and doubled that. The Chiefs could have at least tried to look alive out there.

What I got right, what I got wrong:

CORRECT PICKS
Philadelphia over Oakland: If you've ever doubted that the kicker is one of the most critical positions, you know better now. Thanks to David Akers' sore stick, the Eagles missed one extra point, which meant the game would be tied at the end, and their strategy at times was predicated on going for TDs because field goals weren't an option. Speaking of kicks: I've never seen it take three tries to get the game-opening kickoff away. The TV shot of the day came when Akers kicked off the first time, then fell to the ground. Behind him, you could see two grounds crew guys watching. One taps the other on the shoulder and points to the crumpled Akers. Next play, when Akers goes down again, you can see the same guys react again.

Cincinnati over Chicago: Last week I wrote of the Bengals and Carson Palmer's disturbing end-zone interceptions: "One of these days (next Sunday), they'll be playing a team (Bears) much closer, and some DB (Mike Brown) will take one of those back 100 yards." Sunday, up just 7-0 on the Bears, Palmer hit Brown square in the numbers at the goal line. Brown, shocked at having seen his future laid out for him so crisply in Down and Distance, was so rattled that he dropped the ball. Bengals defensive backs weren't as accommodating for Kyle Orton. With 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Orton's line was 5 of 16 for 42 yards, 0 TD, 5 INT. His passer rating was 1.0. Lovie Smith should've pulled him right then. That's the stuff of legend.

Tampa Bay over Green Bay: The Bucs hadn't won at Lambeau since the Lindy Infante era. The Packers haven't been this bad since the Lindy Infante era. What did you think was going to happen? We can keep coming up with these Lambeau-mystique stats, but they don't matter anymore.

Indianapolis over Cleveland: Lot of angles in this game. 1) How do the Browns receivers -- Browns receivers! -- draw two taunting penalties? Who on Earth can they taunt convincingly? 2) How much longer will we focus on the improved Indy defense before we notice that defenses appear to have figured out the Indy offense?

Minnesota over New Orleans: Either Daunte Culpepper got a lot better or Minnesota finally started game-planning for a universe in which Randy Moss isn't in purple. Or maybe it was just the effect of playing the Saints. When fatigue starts to set in, the mind slips before the body. And the Saints made a lot of mental mistakes.

St. Louis over Tennessee: Torry Holt took a certain rookie corner to school: 9 catches for 163 yards, 1 TD. It's like Inky, Pinky, Blinky and Sue were running the routes.

Seattle over Arizona: Season stats: Neil Rackers, 32 points. The other 52 Cardinals, 12 points. And another Kurt Warner experiment closes down for the year.

Dallas over San Francisco: Julian Peterson, stand over there next to Derek Smith. I see neither of you guys is available at FatHead.com. Oughta be.

San Diego over N.Y. Giants: This was a matter of deciding whether the Chargers were really an 0-2 team or the Giants were really a 2-0 team. Losses to Dallas and Denver were just more convincing than victories over New Orleans and Arizona. Sorry. On another matter, I don't easily declare certain penalties ticky-tack. If the rule's in the book, you've got to enforce it. But the roughing-the-passer call on Chargers D-lineman Luis Castillo that cost Drayton Florence a INT-return touchdown was about as close as you can get to letter-of-the-law-but-not-the-spirit. Castillo's hand brushed Eli Manning's facemask while he was being rassled by his blocker. Castillo didn't grab the mask, and he certainly didn't strike Manning in the head. Though God knows he should have.

INCORRECT PICKS
N.Y. Jets over Jacksonville: The theory goes like this: When in doubt, pick the home dog. Bad dog. The only thing that kept this one close was that the Jaguars' offense doesn't play very good defense. As for the Jets, we could spend a long time making a list of what they need. But it's obvious what they don't need: a weak-armed quarterback underthrowing interceptions in his own territory in OT. At least they don't have one of those anymore. A lot of people in the stands are going to have to get new jerseys.

Buffalo over Atlanta: I see now it's foolish to read anything into a victory over the Texans. J.P. Losman's line: 10 of 23 for 75 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. Dink, dunk, punt. If Drew Drew Bledsoe had still been the Bills' quarterback, he'd have gone 23 of 42 for 256 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT. And yet Buffalo still would have lost by eight. That'll learn me.

Carolina over Miami: I can understand getting caught off guard in Week 1. I can understand then coming back fired up for Week 2 and catching the defending champions off guard. But by Week 3, you're supposed to beat "weaker" teams -- if you're a legitimate Super Bowl threat. On the Miami side of the ball, Ronnie Brown's 58-yard run was great, but I couldn't help noticing how it ended. Brown got through the entire Panther defense and had a 5-yard lead on his closest pursuers. Two caught up with him within 20 yards, including linebacker Dan Morgan. When a linebacker, even a first-rounder, can outrun the running back who went No. 2 in the draft, that's not a good thing. Tell me again why Brown was a better pick than Cadillac Williams?

Pittsburgh over New England: The Colts can't beat the Patriots in New England? The Steelers can't beat the Patriots in Pittsburgh. Notes: 1) The hook-and-ladder is more effective when the guy who gets the lateral knows there's a lateral coming. 2) A fourth-quarter comeback is more inspiring when it isn't followed by a complete defensive collapse. 3) A cut block is more useful when the person who throws it (Dan Koppen, NE) takes out the intended opponent (Larry Foote, PIT) rather than injuring his own teammate (Matt Light, NE).

Kansas City over Denver: Going into this one, I would have thought the Chiefs would be fine even if they fell behind by 10. When they actually did fall behind by 10, it was over, and everyone knew it.

THIS WEEK: 9-5
SEASON: 27-19




POW-R-'ANKINGS FOR WEEK 3
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet. The formula behind them predicted 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners -- and 14 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the POW-R-'ANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser ranking systems, no opinion is involved. None. It's hard-core science. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: WK3 = This week's ranking. WK2 = Last week's ranking. PWR = POW-R centigrade score)
WK3WK2TEAMPWRWK3WK2TEAMPWR
14Bengals100.001711Panthers54.49
22Colts97.651816Patriots53.83
31Steelers86.541926Broncos51.02
43Eagles83.412017Bills42.57
56Bucs80.162121Titans40.66
T69Dolphins65.102224Raiders38.47
T65Bears65.102322Jets37.45
819Seahawks63.442425Packers36.40
910Jaguars62.142520Browns35.54
107Giants61.892631Vikings35.42
1118Chargers60.69272949ers29.48
1215Falcons59.932823Saints29.39
1312Redskins58.292927Lions25.57
148Chiefs56.693028Cardinals16.24
1514Rams55.783130Ravens6.59
1613Cowboys55.673232Texans0.00