Again with the picks!

For the third year in a row, Down and Distance will be participating in the nomadic NFL picks league for bloggers. The league started at Eric Mirlis' site TheMirl.com in 2005, where we finished an admirable 172-84, a top 10 finish that tied us with the Scramble for the Ball guys at Football Outsiders. Emboldened, we swaggered into the 2006 season, where the league was hosted at Breakaway Beach. We went a desultory 154-102 and swore we would never do this again.

But what the hell. It was fun. This year the league has landed at The Sports Frog. Picks for Week 1 have yet to be posted, but here are mine:

**UPDATE**: Picks are posted here.

INDIANAPOLIS over New Orleans
As much as I think I should, I just can't bring myself to pick against the defending champs at home in the kickoff game.

Philadelphia over GREEN BAY
Remember, Philly doesn't start collapsing until about the fifth game.

Atlanta over MINNESOTA
Everyone expects the Falcons to just fold up this season. They will -- but after all that they've been through, they'll put together enough to win this one game, then go 4-11 the rest of the way. Think New Orleans Saints, 2005.

WASHINGTON over Miami
The Redskins are in the fourth year of a rebuilding project. The Dolphins are in the first year of their fourth consecutive rebuilding project. Advantage: Washington.

HOUSTON over Kansas City
Fitting that the season should start with a dog fight.

Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND
The Steelers looked good in preseason. Good enough to beat the Browns, at least.

Tennessee over JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars will get a glimpse of a real "mobile quarterback," and it isn't David Garrard.

Denver over BUFFALO
A dangerous pick. Denver always shits the bed the first week of the season (losing 18-10 to the Rams last year and 34-10 to the Dolphins in 2005).

ST. LOUIS over Carolina
I'll go with the home team because there's nothing else to go on. Besides, "You know the Rams will score!"

New England over N.Y. JETS
The title run begins in the Meadowlands.

Detroit over OAKLAND
My goodness, two dog fights! Call the commissioner!

SEATTLE over Tampa Bay
Insert interesting comment about teams that came into the league together 30 years ago.

SAN DIEGO over Chicago
A seemingly tough call, but not really.

DALLAS over N.Y. Giants
This is the year the bottom drops out for the Giants. For the Cowboys, too -- just not this week.

CINCINNATI over Baltimore
The first skirmish in the battle for second place in the division behind the Steelers.

SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona
This could go either way. Both teams are supposedly poised to "take the next step," so I'll just go with the home team and shrug my shoulders.

SURVIVOR PICK: Pittsburgh