Cloudy forecasts

If it's the brink of the NFL season, you're sure to find newspapers, sports magazines and sports-oriented websites offering their predictions for the coming season. All have their picks for division winners, wild cards, league champions and the Super Bowl winner. It's all fodder for debate, and there's nothing wrong with any of it. (But doesn't anyone expect Pittsburgh to be better than Cincinnati this year?)

Some sources go further, however, and try to predict the regular season record of each team. Even the people who make these predictions know they're on a fool's errand. Indianapolis can't win 13 games if Peyton Manning breaks his leg. If Neil Rackers suddenly gets the yips, Arizona finishes with three fewer wins. Some team expected to win 10 games will in fact win five, and a team expected to win maybe five or six games will instead win 11 or 12 and get at least one playoff game at home. The best a prognosticator can hope to do is say Team A should be good, Team B will probably stink and Team C should improve. But that kind of equivocation doesn't sell newspapers, move magazine subscriptions or drive Web traffic. So you get exact forecasts of won-loss records.

Writers have their reasons -- good reasons -- for predicting that, say, Arizona will go 9-7 and win the NFC West. Or that Atlanta will go 13-3. Anything's possible, and I have yet to see a preseason prediction that defies all logic. No one is saying Cleveland will go 14-2 this year. Or predicting a 3-13 finish for New England. So it's pointless to quibble with specific predictions before a down has been played.

All that said, however, there are some things every NFL seer should be taking into account when dishing up his or her predictions for the year about to kick off. Basic stuff that should be central to any attempt to forecast exact records. Whether a season preview gets those things right -- now that's something worth critiquing.

I looked at six sources that predicted final records for the 32 teams: a national magazine, a national newspaper, two local newspapers and two independent websites. They are:

• Sports Illustrated. Picks
• USA Today. AFC | NFC (projected records appeared in print edition; not available online)
• Tampa Tribune. Picks
• Buffalo News. AFC | NFC
• The Sports E-Cyclopedia. Picks
• WhatIfSports.com Insider. Picks

The first issue that must be considered is league-wide record. Get a calculator and go to Doug Drinen's definitive pro-football-reference.com. Pick an NFL season and add up the wins of all the teams in the league. Then add up all the teams' losses. Compare the numbers. Try another year. Or let me save you the trouble: The numbers are always equal. Every game has a winner and a loser. With 32 teams, there are now 256 games in an NFL regular season. Thus, all forecasts of regular season records should total 256 wins and 256 losses. But hey lookee here:

FORECAST	TOTAL WINS	TOTAL LOSSES
Sports Illustrated	256	256
USA Today	282	230
Tampa Tribune	256	256
Buffalo News	264	248
Sports E-Cyclopedia	260	252
WhatIfSports.com	255	257

The results point to the dangers of a) looking at each team, division or conference in isolation, and b) splitting your forecast among several writers. If I'm responsible for breaking down only the AFC East, I'll say New England's going 13-3, the Jets will be 11-5, Buffalo 9-7 and Miami 5-11. Reasonable, right? But that's a division record of 38-26. Somewhere, some team or combination of teams has to lose 12 more games than they win in order to balance it out. Now, if several writers have divvied up the eight divisions, no one is looking at the big picture. And because the tendency is to give teams the benefit of the doubt, the balance sheet becomes skewed in favor of wins. USA Today had several writers assemble its forecast and wound up with a forecast 26 games out of balance. The Buffalo News had one writer for each conference and came out eight games out of whack. The Tampa Tribune, however, had one writer, Ira Kaufman, take on the whole league, and his forecast is balanced. Sports Illustrated also was in balance. Adam Hoff at WhatIfSports.com, a site that pits teams from different areas against each other, came close enough -- one game out of balance -- that it may just be a mistake. (Credit to Hoff for being the only one to err on the side of more losses, though.)

Another element a forecast should consider is the share of winners and losers. Though the number of wins and losses is always equal, the numbers of teams with winning records and losing records are rarely the same. Say you have a four-team league. You could have teams finishing 14-2, 7-9, 6-10 and 5-11. The league would have an even 32 wins and 32 losses, but would have just one winning team and three losing teams. Complicating matters is the fact that the NFL usually has some teams that finish as neither losers nor winners. These are the ones that go 8-8.

For a sense of what an "average" NFL season produces in terms of winners and losers, I looked at the past 15 years, 1990-2004. Raw numbers can't be compared from year to year because for the period in question, the league grew from 28 teams (1999-94) to 30 teams (1995-98) to 31 teams (1999-2001) to 32 teams (2002-present). So for each year, I converted the numbers of winners, losers and 8-8 teams to a percentage of the teams in the league. I then got the average of those percentages over the 15-year span and applied it to the current 32-team league.

On average, over the past 15 years, 45.3% of the teams in a given year finished 9-7 or better; 43.9% finished 7-9 or worse; and 10.9% finished 8-8. Projected to an "average" year in a 32-team league, that comes out to 14.5 winners, 14 losers and 3.5 teams at 8-8. Here's how the six forecasts compare with the hypothetical average year:

	AVG.	SI	USAT	Tampa	Buffalo	E-Cyclo	WhatIf
Winners	14.5	15	17	17	17	15	16
Losers	14	12	8	12	12	11	14
8-8	3.5	5	7	3	3	6	2

The only number here that's completely out of the range seen in the past 15 years is USA Today's multi-writer forecast of eight losers, or only 25% of the teams in the league. But here's what's really remarkable about the table:

Every forecast calls for more winners than losers. In only six of the 15 seasons examined were there more winners than losers. In another six seasons, there were more losers than winners. In the remaining three seasons, the numbers were equal.

Every forecast is for a higher-than-average percentage of winners. All three of the newspapers predict 17 winners this year, or 53.1% of the league. Only once in 15 years has the NFL seen more than half its teams finish 9-7 or better: 2000, when 16 of 31 (51.6%) did it. Sports Illustrated and Sports E-Cyclopedia get as close to the average as possible, yet still go to the high side of it. WhatIfSports goes for an even half of the league finishing above .500. For those interested, the lowest percentage of winners in the past 15 years came in 1999: 11 of 31 teams (35.5%).

All forecasts except one are for a lower-than-average percentage of losers. WhatIfSports hits the 15-year average of 14 losses, or 43.9%. Three sources predict 12 losers, or 37.5%. One picks 11 (34.4%), and we already discussed USAT at 25%. But only once in the past 15 years have fewer than 39% of the league's teams been losers: 1999, when 11 of 31, or 35.5%, finished 7-9 or worse.

(Yes, that's correct about 1999: 11 teams were winners, 11 were losers and nine were 8-8. Now that's parity. Of a sort.)

The last issue I'll bring up related to forecasts is extremes. Generally, if you get 11 or 12 wins, you're good. But if you get 13 wins, you're considered really good. Conversely, if you win only five or six games, you're pretty bad. But you finish 3-13 or worse, you stink. So let's compare how many teams the forecasts say will finish with 13 to 15 wins or 1 to 3 wins, compared with the league averages over the past 15 years:

	AVG.	SI	USAT	Tampa	Buffalo	E-Cyclo	WhatIf
13-15 wins	2.1	1	2	0	1	2	0
1-3 wins	2.2	2	0	2	2	3	2
Combined	4.4	3	2	2	3	5	2

There's something a little misleading about this table: No source predicted that any team would finish with one, 14 or 15 wins, and only one source predicted that any team would finish 2-14 (Cleveland, as picked by Sports E-Cyclopedia). So almost all predictions at the extremes are for 3-13 or 13-3. To top it off, all but one forecast lowballed the number of teams at the extremes. The reason for that is obvious: Forecasters can stand to be wrong, but no one wants to go that far out on a limb. I know I wouldn't.

The intention here is not to mock out the forecasts. They're done in fun, and they provide great grist for football talk. But by adhering to certain rules -- evening out wins and losses, sticking to reasonable ratios of winners to losers -- we could devise forecasts that come closer to reality, and thus would prompt even livelier discussion.

Vikings: 28 next years and counting

Take a look at this chart. It ranks NFL teams by the number of playoff appearances they have made in the 39 years of the Super Bowl era. Also included are the number of conference (or league, pre-1970) championship games the teams have reached, how many Super Bowls they have played in, and the number of Super Bowl titles each has won:

TEAM	PLAYOFFS	CH. GAMES	SUPER BOWLS	SB TITLES
Cowboys	27	16	8	5
Vikings	24	8	4	0
49ers	21	12	5	5
Steelers	21	12	5	4
Raiders	21	14	5	3
Dolphins	21	7	5	2
Rams	21	9	3	1
Broncos	16	7	6	2
Oilers/Titans	16	5	1	0
Eagles	15	5	2	0
Redskins	14	6	5	3
Packers	14	5	4	3
Colts	14	5	2	1
Bills	14	6	4	0
Browns	14	5	0	0
Chiefs	13	3	2	1
Patriots	12	5	5	3
Bears	11	3	1	1
Jets	11	3	1	1
Giants	10	3	3	2
Lions	9	1	0	0
Buccaneers	8	3	1	1
Chargers	8	3	1	0
Falcons	8	2	1	0
Bengals	7	2	2	0
Seahawks	7	1	0	0
Saints	5	0	0	0
Jaguars	4	2	0	0
Cardinals	4	0	0	0
Ravens	3	1	1	1
Panthers	2	2	1	0

The chart is all you need to know about being a Vikings fan.

I grew up in Minneapolis, and the first NFL game I can remember watching was Super Bowl XI: Minnesota Vikings vs. Oakland Raiders. Particularly when you're a 7-year-old kid, your first experience with something becomes your point of reference, so I just assumed that the Vikings were in the Super Bowl every year. This wasn't entirely ridiculous: The 1976 season marked the fourth time the Vikings had reached the Super Bowl, meaning they had appeared in more than one-third of the games to that point, and half of the past eight. (Dallas and Miami had each been there three times.) Midway through the fourth quarter, when Willie Brown intercepted a Fran Tarkenton pass and ran it back 75 yards for the nail-in-the-coffin TD, I thought something along the lines of "we'll get 'em next year."

Twenty-eight next years later, the Vikings have yet to return to the Super Bowl. Purple Power!

The research that produced the chart above came from a hunch. I suspected that the Vikings just had to be the team with the most playoff appearances without a ring. They made the postseason eight times in the 1970s, five times in the '80s and seven times in the '90s. In addition to their four Super Bowl appearances, they played in the NFC Championship Game four times. I assumed that repeat champions like the Steelers, Raiders, Cowboys and 49ers had made more trips to the playoffs, but no one could match the Vikes for the sheer number of postseason trips with nothing to show for them.

When I got all the numbers together, it was even more depressing. The Vikings have been to the playoffs more than any team except Dallas. There are teams with a total of 15 titles weirdly clustered at 21 appearances each, three fewer than the Vikings. The Patriots have been in the playoffs half as many times yet have been to one more Super Bowl and have won three rings. The Redskins and Packers have each been to the dance 10 fewer times, yet each club has three titles.

Now, I have long since quit living and dying by the Vikings. But understand that this is what it's like to be a Minnesotan: Year after year, you think you have a shot, and you get nothing. You can lose big (e.g. Walter Mondale in 1984; or Giants 41, Vikings 0 in the 2000 NFC Championship Game). You can lose narrrowly (Hubert Humphrey in 1968; or Falcons 30, Vikings 27 in overtime in the 1998 NFC Championship Game). You can lose year after year after year (Harold Stassen, the Jerry Burns era). But you will lose. Oh, sure, the Minneapolis Lakers didn't lose; they won several NBA titles. But the state lost the team to L.A. The Minnesota North Stars lost the 1991 Stanley Cup Finals, and the state soon lost that team to the burgeoning hockey hotbed of Dallas/Fort Worth. The Minnesota Twins -- God love 'em, the only team that can still make me cry -- won the World Series twice in five years, and Major League Baseball put out a contract on them, or whatever that was. This is sports life in the Gopher State.

But back to the Viqueens, as Morgan Mundane loved to call them. The deeper you look into the numbers, the more maddening they become. Many of the teams at the top of the list went dry at one time or another. The Rams, for example, made the playoffs in 1989, when they were still in Los Angeles, and didn't get back until 1999, by which time they had moved to St. Louis. The Raiders went in 1993, while they were in Los Angeles, and their next appearance wasn't until 2000, by which time they had moved back to Oakland. The 49ers played in the NFC Championship Game in 1970 and '71, made the playoffs in '73, then disappeared until '81. The Cowboys were out of it from 1986 through 1990. The Vikings' longest stretch without a playoff appearance: four years, 1983-86. That matches the worst stretches of the Dolphins (two rings) and Steelers (four). The Vikings are always a threat to make the playoffs; they just don't do anything to make you proud while there.

The Vikings' postseason futility spans all eras. Since their last Super Bowl, they've lost the conference title game after the 1977 season (under Bud Grant), 1987 (Jerry Burns) and 1998 and 2000 (Dennis Green). The only Vikings coaches (except Norm Van Brocklin in the post-expansion years) who haven't made it to -- and lost -- the NFC Championsip Game are Mike Tice (working on it) and Les Steckel (3-13 in 1984). Further, it wasn't just losing those games; it was the way they were lost:
1977: Defending NFC champion Minnesota goes into Texas Stadium and gets throttled 23-6. Dallas goes on to wipe its shoes with the Denver Broncos.
1987: The Vikings, who had been on strike and unloved while the Twins were becoming World Series champions, win back the hearts of Minnesotans in the playoffs by crushing the Saints 44-10 and shocking the 49ers 36-24, both on the road. They proceed to break those same hearts in the NFC title game when Darrin Nelson drops the tying touchdown in the end zone, the Redskins win 17-10, and Washington disassembles the Broncos in the Super Bowl.
1998: The original Greatest Show on Turf. Randall Cunningham, Cris Carter, Randy Moss, Robert Smith and the rest of the boys in violet set a league record with 556 points scored. They go 15-1, winning games by gaudy scores of 41-7, 50-10 and 31-7. Gary Anderson, who was a million years old even back then, misses only one kick all year: the winning field goal in the NFC Championship Game. Atlanta wins in OT and goes on to face the damn Broncos. At least this time the Broncos win. Cold comfort.
2000: Minnesotans see this loss coming, though not the size: Giants over Vikings, 41-0. Kerry Collins, who two weeks later would turn in the most dreadful appearance by a quarterback in Super Bowl history, looks like Y.A. Tittle in slicing the Vikings to ribbons. At least the Giants, rather than the Vikings, go on to get killed by the Ravens. At least, at least, at least. Even colder comfort.

A reasonable person could say that this is being awfully hard on the Vikings. After all, they've made the playoffs. If the chart above proves something else, it's that the St. Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals are truly the pits of the league. But nowadays, people in Arizona are thinking about going to the playoffs and are excited about the prospect. Vikings fans don't get excited by being in the playoffs. They're like Atlanta Braves fans that way: They want to know, what are you going to DO with this opportunity? I'd venture to say that Vikings fans would trade all those 9-7 seasons, all those losses in the wild-card round, all those shellackings in someone else's stadium, for a single five-year stretch that ends in a Super Bowl victory. Like Tampa Bay in 2002 or Baltimore in 2000. Or, hell, the Minnesota Twins in 1987 and 1991.

As it stands now, Minnesotans know tht the Vikings could make the playoffs this year. They're almost dreading it.

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Note: Yes, the Vikings were officially NFL champions in 1969, the last year before the merger. They even wore a patch on their uniforms to that effect in 1994 (the 25th anniversary season). But they lost the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. The championship was only a technicality.

Weekly picks

This season I'll be taking taking part in The Writers' Picks over at TheMirl.com. We're going to try to find out who's the top prognosticator. The Week 1 picks have been posted. Check it out.

The Ballad of the Redskins QBs

I've quit reading the Washington Post, so I'm not sure of the status of the alleged quarterback controversy here in DC. But considering that Patrick Ramsey looked unimpressive in the preseason while Mark Brunell looked sharp against second-team defenses, I assume Redskins fans will be calling for the hook after Washington's seemingly inevitable slow start. In no city is it more true that the most popular player on the team is the backup QB.

For as long as I've lived in the DC area, it's always been thus. I moved here early in 1998, as the Redskins were coming off one of their infrequent winning seasons -- and at 8-7-1, it was pretty much the least-winningest season that can still be classified as a winning season. Though the Capitals were advancing to the Stanley Cup finals, all the sports talk in DC was about the Redskins, as it always is. Specifically, the talk was about Gus Frerotte.

Since 1994, Frerotte had been strapped in on a quarterback carousel with mad Norv Turner at the controls. First the "competition" was John Friesz. Then it was Heath Shuler, the No. 3 pick in the 1994 draft. (Shuler was an epic bust, sure, but I don't think he was a bad pick. He put up huge numbers at Tennessee in a pro-style offense and was generally labeled a can't-miss. He missed, but at least he wasn't a basket case in the Leaf model. He's since made a fortune in business. Good for him.) After Shuler crapped out, Jeff Hostetler came in to push Frerotte. He didn't push all that hard, and in the 1997 season, it appeared Frerotte had finally won the job.

And so it was that in Week 13 of the 1997 season, trailing the Giants 7-0 on national television on Sunday night, Frerotte took a snap on the goal line. He's gonna take it in himself! Touchdown. And Frerotte chose to celebrate by head-butting the padded wall along the end zone. I can't explain it. It was the first season at Jack Kent Cooke Stadium (now FedEx Field); maybe the walls at RFK had more give. Regardless, Frerotte hurt his neck and was essentially done for the year. The game ended in a tie. (Also notable about the game was that with 48 seconds left in overtime, the reliably petulant Michael Westbrook took off his helmet to argue a call and got flagged for 15, pushing the Skins out of field-goal range. It was his signature moment as a Redskin, except for the time he beat up Stephen Davis in training camp.)

Frerotte was to return for the 1998 season but wouldn't stay long, as the carousel had begun to pick up speed. Over the ensuing seven seasons it would spin madly through five coaches and a dozen quarterbacks. Other teams may have played more quarterbacks during the period, owing to injuries or free-agent losses. But no club switched QBs based on coaches' whims or owner's box pressure more frequently than the Redskins. This team goes through quarterbacks like digital cameras go through batteries.

The 1998 season began with Frerotte the starter. It also started with seven consecutive losses. Paper Bag City in the stands at the Cookie. Frerotte went to the bench, and 28-year-old Trent Green became the starter. Green put up acceptable numbers (55 percent completions, 3400 yards and, most important, 23 TDs against only 11 interceptions), and it appeared the Redskins had their quarterback of the future. So naturally the team lost him in free agency. He signed with St. Louis, which had decided Tony Banks (remember that name) was not the answer.

The loss of Green was tempered somewhat by the signing of Brad Johnson, who had done well in Minnesota before getting thrown off Denny Green's own carousel in favor of Randall Cunningham, who would later be tossed for Jeff George (remember that name), who in turn would lose his job to Daunte Culpepper, but not before Green played footsie with Dan Marino. Got all that? The upshot was that with Brad Johnson at quarterback, Tre Johnson providing Pro Bowl protection, Stephen Davis developing into a featured back, rookie Champ Bailey turning into a shutdown corner, and new owner Dan Snyder not yet ready to start playing with the buttons, the team finished 10-6 and won the NFC East and its first playoff game.

With the Redskins seemingly poised to take the next step in 2000, the team signed as free agents the declining Bruce Smith, the decrepit Mark Carrier, the disinterested Deion Sanders and the disastrous Jeff George (as a "backup"). They thus ensured that that next step would be taken on surgically repaired, arthritic knees. On the first drive in the opening game, the Redskins offense marched straight down the field and scored a TD on the Panthers. And that was about it for 2000. Though the team started 6-2, someone upstairs wanted to see George play. In George went. Down went the season. A 2-6 finish got Turner fired (when the team was still 7-6), and interim coach Terry Robiskie came in to mop up.

George's ridiculous contract meant that the next coach, Marty Schottenheimer, was obligated to make him the starter in 2001. When a quarterback known for a huge arm and a tiny head is asked to run a short passing game, you can predict the results. George, whose most notable accomplishment in Washington was declaring that leadership is an overrated quality in a quarterback, was cut after two games, which the Redskins lost 30-3 and 37-0. The backup was newly signed Tony Banks. A year earlier, the Ravens, like the Rams, had decided that Banks wasn't the answer. And the Ravens, like the Rams, won the Super Bowl after doing so. The Redskins had no choice but to make him their answer. And to make newly signed Kent Graham their backup answer. At this point, rookie Sage Rosenfels, a fifth-round draft choice, had the most experience in Schottenheimer's system. It's no surprise then, that after five games, the team was 0-5 and had been outscored 135-25, including a 45-13 loss in Week 3 to the Trent Green-led Chiefs. The Skins won their next five and finished 8-8. Schottenheimer had patched up his differences with some of the veterans, and the club looked ready to move forward. But Snyder's longtime crush, Steve Spurrier, was looking for an NFL job, so Marty was out.

Banks was out, too, and was off to Dallas, where Bill Parcells made an example of him by cutting him before he even got to camp. For 2002, Spurrier figured that the key to the offense that was so successful in college was putting it in the hands of two quarterbacks who had failed in the NFL: Florida alumni Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerffel. Rookie Patrick Ramsey was also in camp, because Snyder had wanted to pick a quarterback in the first round, regardless of whether there were any QBs worthy of a first-round selection available. Spurrier never seemed to like Ramsey but appeared resigned to having to play him at some point. Rosenfels moved on to Miami, where today he's third on the depth chart behind Gus Frerotte (there he is again!). The University of Florida guys immediately endeared themselves to the city by letting Spurrier give them Joe Theismann's and Sonny Jurgensen's jersey numbers (7 for Wuerffel, 9 for Matthews). That didn't go over well, and they got 17 and 6 instead. Of the two, Matthews showed the most promise, so Spurrier was determined to play Wuerffel. All three quarterbacks got playing time in the Fun N' Gun offense, and the Redskins finished 7-9, despite the Fun N' Gun offense.

By 2003, Matthews and Wuerffel were gone, and Ramsey was the starter. Washington watched with gruesome fascination as Ramsey was beaten within an inch of his life every Sunday and Spurrier slowly came unglued. Ramsey lasted 12 weeks, which frankly was a miracle, and the far-less-talented Hasselbeck brother, Tim, took over. Spurrier tried to talk Wuerffel into coming back. Wuerffel, however, knew he was done, which is the sort of thing you really expect the coach to figure out before the player. The Redskins and their $25 million coach finished 5-11, the team's worst record in nine years. Unable to cut his own throat with his visor brim, Spurrier quit instead.

Joe Gibbs, the legendary Redskins coach and really the only trick Snyder had left to pull out of the hat, returned to the team in 2004. His first acquisition was quarterback Mark Brunell. Though no one else wanted Brunell, though he had replaced by a rookie in Jacksonville, though he was in his mid-30s and five years removed from his last Pro Bowl season, the Redskins gave him an $8.6 million signing bonus that rendered him uncuttable. He was also unplayable. On the season's first play from scrimmage, Brunell handed off to Clinton Portis, who ran 60-some yards for a touchdown. It was Brunell's best work of the year. Pretty soon Ramsey was playing again. It wasn't until the 13th game of the season that the team scored 19 points in a game. The record: 6-10. Better than Spurrier's the year before, at least!

Which brings us to today. The preseason has folks in DC muttering again. Ramsey will start, but Brunell is on the bench, and the Redskins traded up in the draft to get Jason Campbell. Snyder's going to want to see him play, as will Gibbs.

Gus Frerotte, Jeff Hostetler, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Tony Banks, Kent Graham, Shane Matthews, Danny Wuerffel, Patrick Ramsey, Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell. Norv Turner, Terry Robiskie, Marty Schottenheimer, Steve Spurrier, Joe Gibbs. The coaches change, the names change, the seasons change, but the carousel turns, turns, turns.

Pac ... Biggie ... 50 Cent

Look, it's stupid, but that NFL Network commercial is hilarious.

Preseason Super Bowl data dump!

As the 2005 NFL season gets underway, fans of every team have hope. Or so they say. This could be the year your boys will win it all. Or so you say. What many don't realize is that, buried in the regular season, there are clues as to who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy come February. See, it's not who you beat, not how you win. No, it's how you lose.

BIGGEST REGULAR SEASON LOSSES
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER

PTS.	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	LOST TO	SCORE	WEEK
32	1994 49ers	Eagles	40-8	5
31	2003 Patriots	Bills	31-0	1
31	1976 Raiders	Patriots	48-17	4
28	1979 Steelers	Chargers	35-7	12
24	1992 Cowboys	Eagles	31-7	5
24	1979 Steelers	Bengals	34-10	7
22	1988 49ers	Rams	38-16	16
20	2001 Patriots	Dolphins	30-20	4
20	1970 Colts	Chiefs	44-24	2

Conclusion: Anyone can have a really bad game. Or in the case of the 1979 Steelers, two really bad games. It's best to get them out of your system early. Unless you're the 1988 49ers and you go into the last week of the season battling for a playoff spot and then get blown out the door by one of the very teams you're battling. In that case, you're just lucky the entire league is playing aimless ball, perhaps still logy from the strike.

FEWEST POINTS IN A REGULAR SEASON GAME
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER

PTS.	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	LOST TO	SCORE	WEEK
0	2003 Patriots	Bills	31-0	1
0	1974 Steelers	Raiders	17-0	3
3	2001 Patriots	Jets	10-3	2
3	2000 Ravens	Redskins	10-3	7
3	1990 Giants	49ers	7-3	13
3	1988 49ers	Raiders	9-3	11
3	1975 Steelers	Rams	10-3	14
3	1973 Dolphins	Colts	16-3	13

Conclusions: If you're going to go and get shut out, do it early in the season. If all you can muster is a field goal, the other guys can't score more than one touchdown. You're going to need a great defense if your kicker is your offense's fantasy player of the year. (The Ravens scored 6 points or less in four games in 2000 and lost all four.) Cut Lawyer Milloy at the start of camp, not the end. Or cut him in June.

What happens when teams face each other in the regular season and then in the Super Bowl? Well ...

REGULAR SEASON LOSSES AVENGED IN SUPER BOWL

SEASON	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	OPPONENT	RS RESULT	WEEK	SB RESULT
2001	Patriots	Rams	24-17, STL	10	20-17, NE
1999	Rams	Titans	24-21, TEN	8	23-16, STL
1993	Cowboys	Bills	13-10, BUF	2	30-13, DAL
1990	Giants	Bills	17-13, BUF	15	20-19, NYG
1983	Raiders	Redskins	37-35, WSH	5	38-9, LA
1980	Raiders	Eagles	10-7, PHI	12	27-10, OAK

TEAMS BEATING SAME FOE IN REGULAR SEASON, SUPER BOWL

SEASON	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	OPPONENT	RS RESULT	WEEK	SB RESULT
1994	49ers	Chargers	19-16, SF	15	49-26, SF
1986	Giants	Broncos	19-16, NYG	12	39-20, NYG
1985	Bears	Patriots	20-7, CHI	2	46-10, CHI
1981	49ers	Bengals	21-3, SF	14	26-21, SF

Conclusion: Hey man, the statistics don't lie. If you think your team might wind up playing a given week's opponent again in the Super Bowl, you're 50% better off losing that regular season game than winning it. Preferably by 3 points or so. So keep this in mind when, say, New England plays Atlanta, or when Minnesota plays Pittsburgh, or when Philadelphia plays ... I don't know, San Diego? This isn't me talking here, it's history.

TEAMS NEVER TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER

Panthers	Buccaneers	Ravens
Texans	Jaguars

Conclusion: You lose to any of these teams, start looking forward to next year.

TEAMS TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
TWICE IN THE REGULAR SEASON

SEASON	TEAM	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	RS SCORES
2002	Saints	Buccaneers	26-20, 23-20
1995	Redskins	Cowboys	27-23, 24-17
1983	Seahawks	Raiders	38-36, 34-21

Conclusion: Hm. I guess it's a good sign if you lose twice to the 2002 Saints, '95 Redskins or '83 Seahawks. What really jumps out at me is that in the seven NFL seasons that I've been living in Washington, the Redskins have gone 1-13 against the Cowboys. They can't beat Dallas even when the Cowboys are dreadful. But in 1995, the 6-10 -- 6-10! -- Redskins beat Dallas twice. Dallas lost four games that year: to the Eagles (10-6, No. 1 Wild Card), to the 49ers (11-5, NFC West champs) and twice to the Redskins. Heath Shuler started one of those games. There's nothing to be learned from this statistic. Science is about recognizing the limits of your data.

Holding out for a hero

When a player (a drafted rookie, for example) does not have a signed contract, he is under no obligation to report to camp. When a player does in fact have a contract, one that he has signed, he does have a legal obligation to report. It's unfair to use the same term -- "holdout" -- to refer to these dissimilar circumstances.

Adam Smith, TE, London

I believe that NFL players should be well compensated for the punishment they put their bodies through. I believe they are entitled to a substantial chunk of the revenue that their dangerous labor produces. But I have long tired of the demand by NFL players and other pro athletes that they should be allowed to pursue whatever dollar amount they can get in the "free market."

The NFL is not a free market. No sports league is a free market. Never has been. And this has nothing to do with the structure of the collective bargaining agreement.

Say I own a muffler shop. If you're my competitor, you can lure my best installers away by paying them higher salaries. They may then go to work for you, in your shop -- but only in your shop. You can't send them to my shop to install mufflers in front of my customers.

Also, if you're my competitor in the muffler business, your aim is to run me and your other competition out of business. You don't need me to stay in business for you to continue installing mufflers.

And if you're a talented muffler installer, and you don't think you're getting paid enough by me or any other shop, then you can go down the street and start your own shop.

Let's contrast this with the NFL. League rules force me to bring my competitors into my establishment and forces my competitors to let me come into theirs. If the NFL were truly a free market, you couldn't force us to compete with you. I could just decide that I didn't want to play you. Maybe nobody would want to play you. After all, you took our best talent. And then what will all your spending have gotten you?

In the NFL, your aim in taking away my best talent is not to drive me out of business. Indeed, to ruin your competitors is to ruin yourself, because you'll have no one to play. Your team is worthless without mine and the others in the league. We are not separate businesses. We are divisions within the same business.

Finally, there are 32 teams in the NFL. Anyone is welcome to assemble their own pro football team, of course. But good luck trying to get anyone from the NFL to play you. The NFL is a closed economy.

Yes, if the NFL were truly a free market, there would be no salary cap, no franchise tag. But there would also be no union, no guaranteed minimums. Existing teams would be driven out of business, and new ones would be killed on the vine. There would thus be fewer teams, which means fewer jobs, which means greater competition among workers, which means lower salaries.

I write all this because of something I heard on Dan Patrick's radio show last week. Robert Smith, the former Vikings running back, said something I had never heard before. He said that nowhere in the collective bargaining agreement does it say NFL contracts cannot be guaranteed. If all contracts were guaranteed, he said, no one would get anything longer than a one-year contract, because it would be insane to sign a player to seven guaranteed years when he could blow out his knee next week.

Players want both guaranteed money and long-term deals, but owners will never, ever give them both. Ever. Let me say it again: Never. So you get the system we have now: Players get their signing bonus up front. That's their guaranteed money. (Listening, Maurice Clarett?) Hope they enjoy it. They also get a long-term deal, if that's important to them. But they can be cut whenever the team wants. That's the trade-off for the bonus.

Are there ways to a player could cut-proof his contract? Sure. I bet there are. But I doubt agents would be interested in pursuing that option, because it would mean less money up front. Better to keep making noise about the charade of the free market.

But whatever.

Season previews in 50 words or less

BALTIMORE: Unless the Competition Committee votes to let receivers carry lacrosse sticks, it doesn't matter who Kyle Boller is throwing the ball to.
BUFFALO: Fact: J.P. Losman is the reincarnation of Kenny Dorsey
CINCINNATI: 1-0. 1-1. 2-1. 3-1. Palmer for MVP! 3-2. 3-3. 3-4. 4-4. 4-5. Bye week. 4-6. 4-7. 4-8. Kitna for MVP! 5-8. 6-8. 7-8. 8-8. I'm sorry. The numbers don't lie.
CLEVELAND: If Ohio had a mandatory knee-brace law, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
DENVER: The definition of insanity is putting Ron Dayne in the backfield and expecting different results.
HOUSTON: This is the year the Texans take the next step. I guarantee it. Just you watch. 2005. Next step.
INDIANAPOLIS: People keep talking about Marino's Dolphins, but doesn't that just give short shrift to Fouts' Chargers?
JACKSONVILLE: Late in the season, in the thick of the playoff hunt, playing at home in front of 15,000 empty seats.
KANSAS CITY: The Joe Montana era was all of two years long, yet those are "the good old days" in Kansas City.
MIAMI: Scott Mitchell played well for the Dolphins after Marino went down, then cashed in. Hey, look who's here: A.J. Feeley!
NEW ENGLAND: Last season, Corey Dillon came to Foxboro determined to prove he had been unfairly labeled a malcontent. This season, David Terrell came to Foxboro determined to prove he had been unfairly labeled a malcontent. Corey Dillon should have another great year.
NEW YORK: The Jets are high on this Pennington kid and are looking forward to seeing what he can do.
OAKLAND: Randy Moss, blah blah, LaMont Jordan, blah blah. 7-9.
PITTSBURGH: Here's hoping the name Mark Fidrych doesn't mean anything in Pittsburgh this year.
SAN DIEGO: Say Drew Brees starts really slow, then Philip Rivers comes in and pukes in the punch bowl. There's the Chargers we know and love.
TENNESSEE: All that talk about Travis Henry, and he ends up superfluous again.

ARIZONA: If Kurt Warner doesn't do something stupid and get replaced, Denny Green will do something stupid and replace Kurt Warner.
ATLANTA: Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the NFL and will leave a beautiful corpse.
CAROLINA: Wearing throwback '90s uniforms this year, again.
CHICAGO: Expect Kyle Orton to be starting as soon as the Bears are out of playoff contention. What? Imagine that.
DALLAS: If Freeman McNeil were still playing, it'd be in Dallas.
DETROIT: You can't tell me Joey Harrington wasn't pleased to see Steve Mariucci's new best friend break his leg.
GREEN BAY: Aaron Rodgers will learn from the master how to throw the crazy heave-ho when the line can't stop the rush.
MINNESOTA: When "turning it around" means starting 3-6.
NEW ORLEANS: The Saints won't play any better this year, but life has a way of keeping crummy football in perspective. Much love.
NEW YORK: Ken Brett had a fine career, too.
PHILADELPHIA: Many athletes are willing to take less money if it means a chance at a ring. Just saying.
SAN FRANCISCO: There's nothing wrong with sitting a high draft choice in order to "win now." But why are the 49ers sitting Alex Smith?
ST. LOUIS: Mike Martz goes for two in the third quarter, loses by one. Rinse. Repeat.
SEATTLE: 9-7. 6-10. 9-7. 7-9. 10-6. 9-7. This is the year Seattle finally goes 8-8.
TAMPA BAY: Brian Griese and Chris Simms tire of Coach asking whether Dad has anything left in the tank.
WASHINGTON: There's a nascent QB controversy between Patrick Ramsey and Mark Brunell. I mean, think about that.

Lowlights of the preseason

So much happens in the preseason, yet so little means anything.

THROWS LIKE A GIRL: I have no idea how anyone could have looked at the three-headed monster that was the 2004 Chicago Bears' reserve quarterbacking corps and decided that any of these guys was the answer. Regardless of what the qquestion might be. Yet as the preseason opened, all three of these guys had their names on the back of NFL jerseys (good luck finding them at Sports Authority, tho). Chad Hutchinson was penciled in as the Bears' starter after Rex Grossman got hurt. Jonathan Quinn, who spent six years working toward his chance to start and blew it pretty much immediately, was on the Chiefs roster. And Craig Krenzel -- Craig Krenzel! was third on the Bengals depth chart behind Carson Palmer and Jon Kitna.

This is preposterous. As a trio, these boys had a passer rating of 63.9, meaning that all of them, pooling their talents, made for a lousy quarterback. Why would you want one-third of a lousy quarterback?

It appears sanity has two-thirds prevailed. Hutchinson, given his chance to be The Man, promptly threw it to the opposing cornerback and was flushed out the bottom of the depth chart. It's not a good sign when a team keeps four quarterbacks on its 53-man roster, and you aren't one of them. Quinn, meanwhile, did a little bit of this, a little bit of that, and got cut. The Chiefs decided they'd be better off with Damon Huard and Todd Collins backing up the somewhat-wobbly Trent Green, which tells you all you need to know about Jonathan Quinn.

But amazingly, future Nobel Prize winner Craig Krenzel will go into the 2005 regular season drawing a full paycheck. It's tempting to say it doesn't much matter who's No.3 in Cincinnati, because Palmer is starting to look like the real deal and Kitna may well be the best backup in the game, but remember, Krenzel started last year as a glimmer in nobody's eye in Chicago, yet still managed to start a handful of games. The man is a molecular biologist. God knows what he's slipping into the FroYo at the training table.

IT'S NOT THAT DIFFICULT: Here are some things I know ...

I know that when a punt touches a player on the receiving team but that player does not establish possession, then it is a muff, not a fumble. I know that you cannot advance a muff.

I know that pass rushers are not allowed to slap the quarterback in the head. I know that this was once not a penalty, but it is now. (And yes, I know -- I KNOW -- that "pretty soon you're not going to be able to touch the quarterback at all.")

I know that "down by contact" is not subject to replay review, and I know that even when a call is subject to review, if it occurs in the last two minutes of a half, then it is up to the booth official, not coaches, to initiate a replay.

I know these things. You know these things. Why do the ninnies who call the preseason games not know these things? Watching preseason on NFL Network is really something, because you get one team's local announcers in the first half, and the other team's in the second half. Many of these guys are national pros tuning up for the regular season: During the second half of the Bucs-Titans game, you got to hear the Bucs' team of Fox's Chris Meyers and ESPN's Ron Jaworski. But during the first half of the same game, you got Team Titans: Eddie George (who was all right, actually) and some local sports guy. Yee. The locals seem to have trouble grasping the rules. And they seem to judge NFL players by their fantasy value. So too often during the preseason, I found myself screaming at the screen. There's no need to scream during the preseason.

THEY'LL PLAY THE JETS FOR HOMECOMING: Some teams' redesigned uniforms (Broncos, Patriots, Eagles and, surprisingly, Cardinals) are better than what came before. Others are worse (Seahawks, Bills and, not surprisingly, Bengals). But whether the new unis are bootiful are boot-oogly, someone will always declare them to look like college or high school uniforms. That's not always fair, or true. The Lions' new alternate jerseys, with the blue numbers on black, are rather handsome. They really pop. But in the final analysis, they have an air of desperation about them. I say "Arena Football League." The Giants, who last year trotted out ridiculous red home jerseys, now have a road jersey with red numbers and red stripes on white. Look like barber poles out there. Yes, they look like college uniforms, but NAIA.

Great moments in preseason analysis

"That's what Bill Parcells wanted to see from this offense: Taking the ball, moving it down the field and scoring a touchdown."

--John Madden, Cowboys at Seahawks, 2nd quarter

P in his Koffee

Monday Morning Quarterback, Peter King's weekly "football" column on SI.com, is occasionally good, frequently bad, and always -- always -- infuriating. The most dependably infuriating part, of course, is the coffee talk. Every week, King wastes a few sentences discussing his latest infatuation, peeve or observation based on his latest visit to Starbucks. He labels these musings "Coffeenerdness."

Now, the problem is not that a sports columnist or commentator shouldn't be writing about coffee. Tony Kornheiser has made a lucrative second career out of discussing everything except athletes. Jim Rome is always funniest when he's talking about something other than sports. No, the problem is that King is only pretending to write about coffee. What he's really writing about, of course, is his favorite subject: himself. More specifically, what a connoisseur he is.

By labeling these items "Coffeenerdness," King pretends to let us in on a joke: Look at what a geek I am about my coffee! I'm such a nerd that I talk about the right balance of milk flavor and coffee flavor! Laugh along with me! But read closely! Look at how much I know about coffee! Look at what a discriminating palate I have! Recognize how little you know about coffee compared with me!

Coffee talk, I'm fine with. But the phony self-deprecating BS, that's what I can't stand.

Non-football item

I don't expect science fiction to be "realistic." I wouldn't watch a "realistic" science fiction movie. The spaceships couldn't launch in bad weather, or could be destroyed in orbit by a loose ball bearing. It'd take a thousand years to get from one star to the next, even with sequels. But I do expect a science fiction movie to be internally consistent. Set the ground rules however you want -- go ahead and give Jedis telekinesis, or put a spaceship at Area 51 -- but for pete's sake. the characters have to live by them.

I just saw The Chronicles of Riddick on the HBO. At one point, mercenaries take the fugitive Riddick to a prison on the planet Crematoria. We're told that on this planet, it's 700 degrees on the day side and "300 below" on the night side. The only time it's safe to be outside is just before dawn. When the sun rises, the ground cooks and the air catches fire (more or less). When the sun sets, everything freezes solid. Those are the ground rules.

If I demanded realism, I'd wonder how in hell Crematoria has a breathable atmosphere. I'd also ask how anyone managed to build anything on the planet, even an underground prison. But under the ground rules, Crematoria does have breathable air and an underground prison. So I won't quiblble.

The problem comes after Riddick and the other convicts break out of the prison. They light out across the scorched earth (or, the scorched crematoria, I suppose), headed for the hangar where the mercs have parked their ship. The sun rises. The air begins to explode. One of the convicts is vaporized. It's 700 degrees now. Riddick and his surviving compatriots, as well as the fleeing prison guards and the newly arrived Necromongers, survive by staying in the shade.

Now, when it's hot out, it's hot whether you're standing in the sun or not. When it's 700 degrees and the air itself is bursting into flame, standing in the shade is not going to help you. Even if you wear shorts.

Further, in order to rescue a friend who has gotten trapped in the sun, Riddick pours water over his head, which makes him immune to the heat. We've just seen a man have the flesh vaporized off his body, and Riddick fends off 700 degree worth of solar oomph with a bottle of water. Must have been Propel.

By the by, I couldn't help but notice how similar the Necromongers were to the invading aliens(?) of Dean Koontz's The Taking. But to point that out would make me a total science fiction geek, and we can't have that.

Yo, Alex!

I've been watching The Apprentice for three seasons, and last night's show was the first time anyone made reference to the New Jersey Generals. In the "Boardroom" segment (that's when Trump hollers insults at the contestants and eventually throws one over the side), it appeared Trump was about to fire Tana the Iowa Mary Kay Woman. But Tana came on strong in defending her business skills. Trump then turned to Alex the Hopelessly Contrived Attorney and berated him for losing, like, five shows in a row. Alex, who never before showed interest in sports, let alone defunct rebel leagues, busted out with a case study of Trump's experience as owner of the Generals of the United States Football League. ("When you bought the team, it had 4 wins and 14 losses, but you recognized that Herschel Walker could be an MVP blah blah blah ... ")

It was tough to watch, because while Alex was trying to polish the apple, you could tell he wasn't sure just what the hell the New Jersey Generals were. Trump wasn't impressed. For one thing, Alex had it wrong: The Generals didn't go 4-14 the year before Trump bought them; they went 6-12. For another, Trump probably doesn't even want to be reminded: The year after Trump bought the Generals and paid a fortune for the likes of Brian Sipe, Gary Barbaro and Walt Michaels, they team went 14-4 but got stomped, as usual, by the Philadelphia Stars in the playoffs.

If there was a precursor to Daniel Snyder and the recent Redskins, it may well have been Trump and the Generals of the mid-'80s. Oh man. The USFL played its last game 20 years ago this summer. Gotta write about that.

You never can tell

The year grinds closer to draft weekend, the only meager oasis to be found between the Super Bowl and the Hall of Fame Game. For those of us who actually watched combine coverage on the NFL Network (or tried to) and have endured another round of Jaguars Summer (and loved it!), the idea of having honest-to-God football-related material to think about makes us positively giddy. All the chat boards are alive with draft talk, the mock drafts are being drawn up, the post-draft report cards are ready to be filled in.

To say that at this point the only thing certain about the draft is that nothing is certain is, well, obvious. No one can say which players will be superstars and which will be busts. Hell, no one even knows whom the 49ers are going to pick with the first selection, and that's the one thing that's usually nail-down-able by this time. (I don't think the 49ers are faking when they say they have no idea either.) The point is: The mock drafts and report cards? Harmless hokum.

There's a game football fans play regularly in which we look at players who have turned out to be stars, then point to the guys at their position who were drafted ahead of them, and then we cluck our tongues. It's fun, but to an extent, it's unfair, because you can time these guys in the 40, watch 'em bench press hunnerts o pounds and Wonderlic 'em from one end of Indianapolis to the other, and still some of them are going to disappoint to the tune of $45 million over seven years. Others will come out of college with no numbers of note, get taken in a round that doesn't even exist anymore and end up with a league-approved block of ice on their trigger finger. Just ain't no guarantees, mon.

Take our buddy Brad Johnson, for example. BraJo(!) will not be going to the Hall of Fame. This year he won't even be starting, if all goes as planned. But in his career, he's led three teams to the playoffs (including the only postseason appearance by the Snyder-era Skins), played in Honolulu twice, won the Super Bowl and been benched because of an inexplicable management obsession with Jeff George. (Being replaced by George is a reliable but hidden indicator of quarterback excellence, right up with being the guy who replaces Tony Banks.) Johnson, in short, is what you should want out of a quarterback.

Johnson was taken by Minnesota in the ninth round of the 1992 NFL Draft. This is a round, mind you, that doesn't exist anymore. These are the quarterbacks selected ahead of him: David Klingler, Tommy Maddox, Matt Blundin, Tony Sacca, Craig Erickson, Casey Weldon, Will Furrer, Chris Hakel, Jeff Blake, Kent Graham, Bucky Richardson, Mike Pawlawski. Take out Blake -- a guy whose career numbers are better than you may expect -- and the other 11 guys combined threw for just 6,000 more yards than Johnson has in his career. They're also all out of football (sorry, Tommy!) by now. So, was it a mistake to pick them ahead of Johnson? I don't think you can say so. Klingler and Erickson were Heisman contenders. Weldon had played ahead of Johnson at Florida State. Richardson was named Bucky, and that counts for something. In retrospect, sure, Johnson was better than all of them, but no one could have known that at the time. He was a steal in the ninth round, but the Vikings didn't know they were stealing him. (Johnson, however, was picked ahead of Ty Detmer, who had actually won the Heisman, which means he was a disaster waiting to happen.)

Tom Brady, on the other hand ...

In his senior season at Michigan, Brady went 9-2 in the regular season with an NCAA passer rating of 138. He ended his college career at the Orange Bowl. His line: 34 of 46, 349 yards, 4 touchdowns, no interceptions.

Brady wasn't taken till the sixth round. Now, the top quarterback picked in 2000 was Chad Pennington. Reasonable people can argue about whether Pennington was right for the Jets, but this was not a stupid pick. No, the stupid picks came later. I'm not talking about Pittsburgh's selection of Tee Martin in the fifth. Hell, Martin won the national championship at Tennessee that Peyton Manning couldn't. Though how he was going to help a team spinning its wheels between Kordell Stewart and Mike Tomczak is beyond me. I'll also refrain from saying something mean about Marc Bulger, who went before Brady in the sixth and has turned out all right -- though not for the team that drafted him, the Saints.

The real fun in looking at the 2000 draft comes in the third round, when the 49ers picked the first QB since Pennington. They chose, I shit you not, Giovanni Carmazzi. A thumbnail comparison:

PLAYER	GAMES	PASS YDS	TDs	PLAYOFF REC.	S.B. RINGS
Brady	64	13,925	97	9-0	3
Carmazzi	0	0	0	N/A	0

This year the 49ers are once again trying to find the QB of the future. The Patriots are trying to find a trophy case with enough shelves. Other QBs taken ahead of Brady in 2000: Chris Redman (eh). Spergon Wynn (haw!).

Some other notable QBs taken while future Super Bowl starters were still on the shelf. I've left off guys like Heath Shuler ('94) and Jim Druckenmiller ('97), who were busts but nevertheless came out highly rated:
1997 (Jake Delhomme undrafted): Danny Wuerffel, Ronnie McAda, Wally Richardson
1994 (Kurt Warner undrafted): Doug Nussmeier, Perry Klein Jay Walker, Glenn Foley
1991 (Brett Favre, second round): Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich
1983 (Dan Marino goes No. 27): Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien
1979 (Joe Montana, third round): Steve Fuller
Honorable mention and cheap shot: 1967 (Bob Griese goes No. 4): Steve Spurrier

Somebody damn well take a chance on Timmy Chang.

Triple overpass

A recent thread at Football Outsiders discussed players with the greatest potential for a breakout year in 2005. My pick would be Carson Palmer, and I wanted to do a little research about Cincinnati's quarterback carousel in the 12 seasons since Boomer Esiason split as a free agent. That research led me to look at every team's quarterback carousel since the '93 season. Which is all a roundabout way of introducing today's topic: The Three-Headed Monster.

Start with the 2002 Eagles. Donovan McNabb breaks his leg in Week 10. Koy Detmer dislocates his elbow before Week 11 is out. Third-stringer A.J. Feeley goes 4-1 in five starts, and Philly's season is saved. Who's the hero? The numbers don't lie: Koy Detmer. It breaks down like this: McNabb finished the regular season with 361 pass attempts. Feeley had 154 attempts. Detmer, by virtue of getting hurt after just three quarters, threw the ball just 28 times. Thus the Eagles avoided having three passers with more than 100 attempts each. That's the Three-Headed Monster, a leading indicator of a lost season.

Technically, Chicago did not actually field a Monster last season. But the poor bastards it threw out there after Rex Grossman went down -- Chad Hutchinson (161 attempts), Craig Krenzel (127) and Jonathan Quinn (98) -- were close enough to merit special consideration. Because all three were backups, it really wouldn't be fair to declare the 2004 Chicago QB corps as the absolute worst of the past 12 years. I'd drop that honor on the 1998 New Orleans Saints: Billy Joe Tolliver (199), the not-yet-cleaned-up Kerry Collins (191) and Danny Wuerffel (119). The '98 Saints Monster gets an honorary fourth head in Billy Joe Hobert (28 completions). Actually, make it five: Despite this collection of numb arms, Mike Ditka decided that the best thing to do with all his 1999 draft picks is use them on one running back. And the Saints went from 6-10 to 3-13. Two guys named Billy Joe!

The Three-Headed Monster can be born in several ways. A team could just not have an NFL-caliber starting quarterback ('98 Saints, '94 Redskins). Or it could have a decent or even great QB, but he gets hurt and the team can't replace him ('04 Bears, '03 Falcons). Or maybe the team just rips itself apart midseason ('93 Browns). A subjective look at the Three-Headed Monsters of the past dozen years (in descending order, with the most gruesome creatures listed first):

1998 Saints: Billy Joe Tolliver (199),Kerry Collins (191), Danny Wuerffel (119)
1994 Oilers: Billy Joe Tolliver (240), Bucky Richardson (181), Cody Carlson (132)
1996 Jets: Frank Reich (331), Neil O'Donnell (188), Glenn Foley (110)
1994 Redskins: Heath Shuler (265), John Friesz (180), Gus Frerotte (100)
2001 Lions: Charlie Batch (341), Ty Detmer (151), Mike McMahon (115)
1999 Bears: Shane Matthews (275), Cade McNown (235), Jim Miller (174)
1997 Eagles: Ty Detmer (244), Bobby Hoying (225), Rodney Peete (118)
2003 Falcons: Michael Vick (100), Kurt Kittner (114), Doug Johnson (243)
1993 Eagles: Bubby Brister (309), Ken O'Brien (137), Randall Cunningham (110)
1993 Browns: Vinny Testaverde (230), Bernie Kosar (138), Todd Philcox (108)
2002 Rams: Kurt Warner (220), Marc Bulger (214), Jamie Martin (195)
1993 Dolphins: Dan Marino (150), Steve Deberg (188), Scott Mitchell (233)

Some answers: 1) Yes, there are some fine quarterbacks on this list. 2) No, it's not a coincidence that Tolliver and Ty Detmer are on there twice. 3) Yes, the '96 Jets had a much worse record than the '98 Saints. That's not the point.

Pardon the interruption

I realize that it's been more than a month since anything new was added to Down and Distance. My wife and I have had a family emergency. Posting will resume shortly. In the meantime, if anyone's planning to be in northern Delaware the weekend of April 16-17 -- and why wouldn't you be? -- go ahead and stop by the Doubletree Hotel Wilmington for the Wilmington Writers' Workshop. I'm going to be presenting a session on "Precision Editing" the morning of the 17th. The workshop is sponsored by the Wilmington News Journal and the Poynter Institute.

Pros, not poetry

I didn't actually watch the Pro Bowl. I had it on as background music while hanging shelves in the basement. And it wasn't actually this year's Pro Bowl. It was still afternoon, and NFL Network was rerunning last year's game. But really, is there even a difference? The uniforms look like something you'd see in a crummy movie where football is being played in the future. The teams put up 80, 90 points. The players just try not to get hurt. The players don't take the Pro Bowl seriously. No one does.

If anyone were to need evidence, they'd only have to check the play by play of last year's game. The following things happened:

• The NFC was behind 38-13 four minuntes into the third quarter, then rallied to win 55-52. At the time, it was only the third NFL game of any kind to see more than 100 points scored.
• Trent Green started the second half for the AFC and fumbled four times in about a quarter's worth of work. Yes, the center-QB exchange is tricky in an all-star game, but the other five quarterbacks had one fumble combined.
• Mike Vanderjagt didn't miss a kick all year, yet honked field goals at the end of both halves, including the potential tying kick as time ran out.

Any of these occurrences would make a game memorable. They'd even make a preseason game memorable. Yet, here this game was playing on my TV, and I only faintly recalled any of it ever happening. That's because the Pro Bowl is the worst game of all. It's worse than a preseason game. At least in the preseason, guys are playing for jobs. And the games, such as they are, are a harbinger of an autumn's worth of bliss. All the Pro Bowl signals is six dark, empty months without football.

As I listened to a game a year past its freshness date, I laughed a little harder each time the ESPN crew -- calling the game as if it meant something, which was cute -- hollered that Green had fumbled. All I could think about was Atlee Hammaker. In 1983, Hammaker was a 25-year-old left-handed pitcher for the San Francisco Giants. At the All-Star break, he led the NL in ERA. He was on top of the world. Then, he was sent in to pitch the third inning of the All-Star Game. Six hits and seven runs later, he stumbled off the field. He was never the same pitcher again.

In the 2004 Pro Bowl, meanwhile, Trent Green fumbled four times in 10 minutes. Vanderjagt shanked two field goals. The AFC lost a four-touchdown lead. And by Tuesday, everyone had forgotten.

Ha!

Salisbury mistake

When the call goes out for all Michael Irvin fans to raise their hands, mine does not go up. His act on Sunday NFL Countdown -- by turns preening, shouting and giggling -- is a little hard to take, especially considering he's sitting in the chair once occupied by Sterling Sharpe, who was simultaneously erudite and a badass. Even so, Irvin's ramblings and mumblings reveal the odd insight, and when he turns out to be wrong, he can admit it. And on top of it all, the man wears three rings. I mean, those are credentials.

So where the hell does Sean Salisbury get off? The day after the Super Bowl, I'm watching a wrapup on ESPN, and Salisbury is explaining why the Patriots are a dynasty -- maybe the best ever. Hey, I'm wide open to that argument. But Salisbury, as usual, makes his case less with reason than with "attitude." He gets in Irvin's face and says the 21st-century Pats are better than Irvin's 1990s Cowboys because the 'Boys merely blew out their Super Bowl opponents, while the Patriots have "proven they can win close games."

What? I repeat: WHAT?

You can give dozens of good reasons why New England's three-of-four is more remarkable than Dallas'. Hell, Troy Aikman (three rings) has been doing that for a while now. But to say that the Patriots are better because they haven't blown out their opponents is a breed of idiocy so rare they should put it in a zoo.

Irvin then said he now agrees that the Pats are a dynasty. Salisbury reopens his blowhole and says, "That's not what you said last year!" As if Irvin is the fool here for waiting until New England established a dynasty before declaring them one. The, um, Playmaker had every right to withhold judgment until he was satisfied. That's the prerogative you earn when you have jewel-encrusted fingers.

Down and Distance isn't about trashing people. But it appears Salisbury is. Look at all the jocks-turned-talking heads on Fox, CBS, ESPN and the NFL Network. Aikman, Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, Dan Marino, Phil Simms, Ron Jaworski, Howie Long, both Sharpes, Terrell Davis, Daryl Johnston, even Boomer Esiason. Pro Bowlers. Super Bowl players. Super Bowl winners. Hall of Famers. None of them -- none -- trashes people the way Salisbury does. Maybe they don't have to. Maybe when you throw six TDs in one Super Bowl, you just don't have to puff yourself up the way a person with a career 22.4 playoff passer rating does. Maybe if you have nearly 3,849 passing yards just in playoff games, you aren't as insecure as a guy with 3,824 in the regular season for his entire career.

I'll even throw in Solomon Wilcots.

You don't need to have been a great player to be a fine commentator. Hell, you needn't have even been a player to be a fine commentator. But arrogance -- especially Salisburian arrogance -- doesn't mask the fact that you stunk between the lines. It magnifies it.

The Championship Championships

After the Eagles lost Super Bowl XXXIX, we all read that Philadelphia holds the longest title drought among markets that have franchises in "all four major team sports." I guess hockey is still considered a major team sport. ("Better pull them pants up, Chief.") If it were up to me, I'd replace it with Arena football. At least you can count on those guys to play. Anyway, here are the title drought standings:

CITY/MARKET	LAST TITLE	CHAMP
Boston	2004	Red Sox, Patriots
Detroit	2004	Pistons
Miami	2003	Marlins
Arizona	2001	Diamondbacks
Denver	2001	Avalanche
New York	2000	Yankees
Dallas	1999	Stars
Chicago	1998	Bulls
Atlanta	1995	Braves
Washington*	1991	Redskins
Minnesota	1991	Twins
Philadelphia	1983	76ers

*D.C., of course, has all four sports as of April 2005. Also, one could argue for including the Bay Area here, as it has the 49ers, Raiders, Giants, A's, Warriors and Sharks. If you insist on including it, I won't stop you. Last championship: 49ers, 1994.

As a native Minnesotan, I guess I'm rooting for the Eagles to keep losing, then.

Compiling that list got me wondering which city is the overall sports champion: all leagues, all years. So I put together a database of all title winners in the big four pro leagues going back to the beginning of the Super Bowl era. Here are your standings (see end of post for the specific championship years):

NO.	CITY/MARKET	NFL*	MLB	NBA	NHL
14	New York	3	8	2	1
13	Boston	3	1	7	2
12	Los Angeles	1	2	9	0
10	Montreal	--	0	--	10
8	Detroit	0	2	3	3
8	Pittsburgh	4	2	--	2
7	Chicago	1	0	6	0
7	Oakland	2	4	1	--
6	Dallas	5	0	0	1
5	Baltimore	2	3	--	--
5	San Francisco	5	0	--	--
5	Philadelphia	0	1	2	2
5	Edmonton	--	--	--	5
4	Miami	2	2	0	0
4	Denver	2	0	0	2
4	Washington	3	0	1	0
4	Long Island	--	--	--	4
3	New Jersey	--	--	0	3
3	St. Louis	1	2	--	0
3	Green Bay	3	--	--	--
3	Toronto	--	2	0	1
3	Cincinnati	0	3	--	--
2	Tampa	1	0	--	1
2	San Antonio	--	--	2	--
2	Houston	0	0	2	--
2	Minnesota	0	2	0	0
2	Kansas City	1	1	0	--
1	Anaheim	--	1	--	0
1	Arizona	0	1	0	0
1	Atlanta	0	1	0	0
1	Calgary	--	--	--	1
1	Seattle	0	0	1	--
1	Portland	--	--	1	--
1	Milwaukee	--	0	1	--

*NFL denotes Super Bowl champion, including the '68 Jets and '69 Chiefs of the AFL
(If a city had a franchise during the covered period but it won no titles, it gets a "0" for the sport. If the city had no franchise, the sport is marked with "--")

Obviously New York is always going to come out ahead, no matter how you count and how far back you go. The city has two football teams and two baseball teams, and all have won championships. Boston has had a hell of a run lately (Pats, Sox) and in the past (Celtics). L.A. has the Lakers. But ... Montreal? Sure, the Canadiens have historically been a dominant hockey team, but they haven't won the Cup since 1993. And now that Les Nationales are gone, the Habs are it for Montreal. I can't in good conscience equate an NHL title with a Super Bowl victory. So I tweaked these standings again.

Now, I'm sure that for a hockey player, a Stanley Cup championship is just as good as a Super Bowl victory. But I'm not a hockey player. I'm a sports fan, sitting on the couch. I decided to weight these titles according to their impact on the general sports population (meaning me, but I'm sure we can all agree on the principle). So let's weight them like this:

Super Bowl title = 3
World Series title = 3
NBA championship = 2
Stanley Cup title = 1

That seems about right to me. I'm not happy about equating baseball and football -- this is Down and Distance, after all, not Foul Line and Rosin Bag -- but I'm also a realist. OK, weighting the titles gives us this:

38   New York	10   Montreal	4   San Antonio
28   Boston	9   Philadelphia	4   Houston
27   Los Angeles	9   St. Louis	3   New Jersey
20   Pittsburgh	9   Green Bay	3   Anaheim
19   Oakland	9   Cincinnati	3   Arizona
16   Dallas	8   Denver	3   Atlanta
15   San Francisco	7   Toronto	2   Seattle
15   Detroit	6   Minnesota	2   Portland
15   Chicago	6   Kansas City	2   Milwaukee
12   Miami	4   Edmonton	1   Calgary
12   Baltimore	4   Long Island
10   Washington	4   Tampa

Oh man, we're getting warm. But there's one other factor to consider. Look at Anaheim and Arizona. The Angels are just two years removed from winning the World Series, the Diamondbacks just three years. Yet both trail Long Island, which is still coasting on decades-old Stanley Cup titles. That ain't right. Similarly, look at Atlanta. Yes, the city's lone World Series title was 10 years ago, but how can it be only one point behind Milwaukee, winner of the 1970 NBA title and nothing else? Obviously, we can't just weight for sport. We have to add in a time element.

I developed a formula that assigns points based on a) the sport in which each title was won, and b) the year in which it was won. The most recent title in each sport has a value 39 times that of the oldest title (there have been 39 years in the Super Bowl era). By sport, titles are valued in the same proportion as above: NFL 3, MLB 3, NBA 2, NHL 1.

The Patriots' 2004 NFL title, for example, is worth about twice as much as the Bears' title from 1985. That Bears title, meanwhile, is worth about the same as the Houston Rockets' NBA 1995 title and is worth more than any Stanley Cup. (The most recent Cup equates to the 1978 World Series and Super Bowl.)

So, finally, we have our standings:

THE DOWN AND DISTANCE CHAMPIONSHIP CHAMPIONSHIPS

.963   New York	.246   Baltimore	.133   Philadelphia
.813   Boston	.214   Toronto	.132   New Jersey
.763   Los Angeles	.204   St. Louis	.131   Green Bay
.531   Chicago	.192   Tampa	.115   Atlanta
.441   Detroit	.185   Minnesota	.092   Kansas City
.440   Dallas	.185   San Antonio	.085   Long Island
.427   San Francisco	.177   Cincinnati	.036   Seattle
.336   Denver	.154   Montreal	.031   Portland
.327   Miami	.151   Houston	.031   Calgary
.322   Pittsburgh	.142   Anaheim	.015   Milwaukee
.310   Oakland	.140   Edmonton
.283   Washington	.138   Arizona

Based on the weighting of the sports (3+3+2+1), there were 9 total points awarded. The fractions above don't add up to 9, however, because the .112 points reserved for the 1994 World Series winner are unclaimed.

Now, chew that over.

---

Each city's championship teams and years are as follows:

New York (Giants 90,86; Jets 68; Yankees 00,99,98,96,78,77; Mets 86,69; Knicks 73,70; Rangers 94)
Boston (Patriots 04,03,01; Red Sox 04; Celtics 86,84,81,76,74,69,68; Bruins 72,70)
Los Angeles (Raiders 84; Dodgers 88,81; Lakers 02,01,00,88,87,85,82,80,72)
Montreal (Canadiens 93,86,79,78,77,76,73,71,69,68)
Detroit (Tigers 84,68; Pistons 04,90,89; Red Wings 02,98,97)
Pittsburgh (Steelers 79,78,75,74; Pirates 79,71; Penguins 92,91)
Chicago (Bears 85; Bulls 98,97,96,93,92,91)
Oakland (Raiders 80,76; A's 89,74,73,72; Warriors 75)
Dallas (Cowboys 95,93,92,77,71; Stars 99)
Baltimore (Ravens 00; Colts 70; Orioles 83,70,66)
San Francisco (49ers 94,89,88,84,81)
Philadelphia (Phillies 80; 76ers 83,67; Flyers 75,74)
Edmonton (Oilers 90,88,87,85,84)
Miami (Dolphins 72,73; Marlins 03,97)
Denver (Broncos 98,97; Avalanche 01,96)
Washington (Redskins 91,87,82; Bullets 78)
Long Island (Islanders 83,82,81,80)
New Jersey (Devils 03,00,95)
St. Louis (Rams 99; Cardinals 82,67)
Green Bay (Packers 96,67,66)
Toronto (Blue Jays 93,92; Maple Leafs 67)
Cincinnati (Reds 90,76,75)
Tampa (Buccaneers 02; Lightning 04)
San Antonio (Spurs 03,99 )
Houston (Rockets 94,95 )
Minnesota (Twins 91,87)
Kansas City (Chiefs 69; Royals 85)
Anaheim (Angels 02)
Arizona (Diamondbacks 01)
Atlanta (Braves 95)
Calgary (Flames 89)
Seattle (SuperSonics 79)
Portland (Trail Blazers 77)
Milwaukee (Bucks 71)

When things can't get worse ...

Here are the raw numbers for the post of Feb. 5, "$100 on the over, and Charge it." These are the teams that have gone 4-12 or worse since 1992, with their records for the following year, and the victory differential from the first year to the next. Obviously, as this is not the NBA, none of these teams qualified for the postseason in the first year. Those that made the playoffs in the second season are indicated by (P).

YEAR	TEAM	W-L	NEXT SEASON	CHANGE
1992	Patriots	2-14	5-11	+3
	Seahawks	2-14	6-10	+4
	Cardinals	4-12	7-9	+5
1993	Bengals	3-13	3-13	--
	Colts	4-12	8-8	+4
	Redskins	4-12	3-13	-1
1994	Oilers	2-14	7-9	+5
	Bengals	3-13	7-9	+4
	Redskins	4-12	6-10	+2
	Rams	4-12	7-9	+5
1995	Jets	3-13	1-15	-2
	Jaguars	4-12	9-7 (P)	+5
	Cardinals	4-12	7-9	+3
1996	Jets	1-15	9-7	+8
	Saints	3-13	6-10	+3
	Falcons	3-13	7-9	+4
	Ravens	4-12	6-9-1	+2.5
1997	Colts	3-13	3-13	--
	Chargers	4-12	5-11	+1
	Cardinals	4-12	9-7 (P)	+5
	Raiders	4-12	8-8	+4
	Bears	4-12	4-12	--
1998	Eagles	3-13	5-11	+2
	Bengals	3-13	4-12	+1
	Colts	3-13	13-3 (P)	+10
	Bears	4-12	6-10	+2
	Rams	4-12	13-3 (P)	+9
	Panthers	4-12	8-8	+4
1999	Browns	2-14	3-13	+1
	Saints	3-13	10-6 (P)	+7
	49ers	4-12	6-10	+2
	Bengals	4-12	4-12	--
2000	Chargers	1-15	5-11	+4
	Cardinals	3-13	7-9	+4
	Browns	3-13	7-9	+4
	Bengals	4-12	6-10	+2
	Falcons	4-12	7-9	+3
2001	Panthers	1-15	7-9	+6
	Lions	2-14	3-13	+1
	Bills	3-13	8-8	+5
2002	Bengals	2-14	8-8	+6
	Lions	3-13	5-11	+2
	Texans	4-12	5-11	+1
	Bears	4-12	7-9	+3
2003	Chargers	4-12	12-4 (P)	+8
	Raiders	4-12	5-11	+1
	Cardinals	4-12	6-10	+2
	Giants	4-12	6-10	+2
2004	49ers	2-14	??	??
	Dolphins	4-12	??	??
	Browns	4-12	??	??

---

Update 2/10/05: And just for hoots, here are the teams that have finished 12-4 or better since 1992. All made the playoffs in the first year. "P?" indicates whether the team made the playoffs in the second year. As you would expect, when a team wins three-quarters of its games, it's awfully hard to improve. Of the 46 teams here, only 3 improved; 35 got worse; and 8 had no change. On average, teams had 3.2 fewer victories the next year. The median result was 2.75 fewer victories. The most common result was no change at all.

Interestingly, all of 2003's top teams had over/unders of 11.5 or lower for 2004. Apparently, the oddsmakers were flat-out positive that the Chargers weren't going to improve, yet they hedged on the good teams.

YEAR	TEAM	W-L	NEXT SEASON	CHANGE	P?
1992	49ers	14-2	10-6	-4	Y
	Cowboys	13-3	12-4	-1	Y
	Saints	12-4	8-8	-4	N
1993	Cowboys	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	Bills	12-4	7-9	-3	N
	Oilers	12-4	2-14	-10	N
1994	49ers	13-3	11-5	-2	Y
	Cowboys	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	Steelers	12-4	11-5	-1	Y
1995	Chiefs	13-3	9-7	-4	N
	Cowboys	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
1996	Packers	13-3	13-3	--	Y
	Broncos	13-3	12-4	-1	Y
	Panthers	12-4	7-9	-5	N
	49ers	12-4	13-3	+1	Y
1997	Packers	13-3	11-5	-2	Y
	Chiefs	13-3	7-9	-4	N
	49ers	13-3	12-4	-1	Y
	Broncos	12-4	14-2	+2	Y
1998	Vikings	15-1	10-6	-5	Y
	Broncos	14-2	6-10	-8	N
	Falcons	14-2	5-11	-9	N
	49ers	12-4	4-12	-8	N
	Jets	12-4	8-8	-4	N
1999	Jaguars	14-2	7-9	-7	N
	Rams	13-3	10-6	-4	Y
	Titans	13-3	13-3	--	Y
	Colts	13-3	10-6	-3	Y
2000	Titans	13-3	7-9	-6	N
	Ravens	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
	Giants	12-4	7-9	-5	N
	Raiders	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
2001	Rams	14-2	7-9	-7	N
	Steelers	13-3	10-5-1	-2.5	Y
	Bears	13-3	4-12	-9	N
	Packers	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	49ers	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
2002	Buccaneers	12-4	7-9	-5	N
	Eagles	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	Packers	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
2003	Patriots	14-2	14-2	--	Y
	Chiefs	13-3	7-9	-6	N
	Colts	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	Titans	12-4	5-11	-7	N
	Eagles	12-4	13-3	+1	Y
	Rams	12-4	8-8	-4	Y
2004	Steelers	15-1	??	??
	Patriots	14-2	??	??
	Eagles	13-3	??	??
	Colts	12-4	??	??
	Chargers	12-4	??	??

Headbands and bodyslams

Charles Martin, a defensive tackle who played for the Packers, Oilers and Falcons from 1984-1988 (and the USFL Stallions in '83), died recently at age 46. Martin's footnote in football history is being kicked out of a game in 1986, and suspended for two more, for pile-driving Jim McMahon. A Packer-fan friend of mine maintains that because McMahon had thrown an interception on the play, Martin was within his rights to stuff him, as the QB had become a defender. This is a good point. The fact that Martin had written down a hit list of Bears jersey numbers (including No. 9) and was literally wearing that list compromises this argument only a little bit

The news of Martin's passing got me thinking about McMahon. You say "McMahon," and the typical fan responds, "Bears." But ...

With the Bears, the guy was hated -- absolutely despised -- across the NFC Central. Yet he started for the Vikings in the '93 season. All of Green Bay cheered when Martin pasted him. Yet guess which one -- Martin or McMahon -- was a member of the world champion Packers?

McMahon was a Bears icon, but how many years of his 15-year career did he play in Chicago? Seven -- and never a full season. McMahon ... the tough guy ... the, er, punky QB. Yet, what do Vince Evans, Steve Fuller, Rusty Lisch, Greg Landry (for God's sake), Bob Avellini, Mike Tomczak, Doug Flutie and Jim Harbaugh have in common? Each spent significant time under center for the Bears because McMahon was hurt. In the end, McMahon spent as many games in Chargers, Eagles, Cardinals(!), Vikings, Browns and Packers colors as he did in Bears attire.

The persistence of memory ...

$100 on the over, and Charge it

While doing research for something or other, I came across this piece on About.com listing Las Vegas' supposed over/under on regular season wins for NFL teams in 2004. The predictions don't really interest me. For the most part, they appear to have been keyed to the teams' 2003 finish. Miami, for instance, was at 9.5; taking the over would have been a sucker bet even before Ricky Williams retired.

I was drawn, however, to the end of the list. The over/under on San Diego -- which finished 4-12 in 2003 -- was 4.5. If I were a betting man, I'd have taken the over on that without hesitation. Talk about easy money. And I would have said that even before the Chargers "surprised" the league by winning the AFC West. Reasons:

1. For sure, the '03 Chargers were not a good team. But they weren't what TMQ would call cover-your-eyes awful. They got blown out a couple times, lost some close ones, kicked the crap out of a near-playoff team in the Vikings. Their 4-12 record wasn't pretty, but it wasn't so ugly that you'd get the impression the 2003 season was the start of a long stretch of ineptitude.

2. That 4-12 record was the best "worst" record in the NFL since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. The Chargers' .250 winning percentage was the best by the NFL's "worst" team since 1957, when the Packers and Cardinals both went 3-9. (In the AFL, the '65 Oilers and Broncos both went 4-10, or .286). Further, the Chargers were one of four teams at 4-12 in 2003 (others: Raiders, Cardinals, Giants). Six other teams finished 5-11: Browns, Jaguars, Texans, Falcons, Redskins, Lions. San Diego wound up tabbed the league's worst team (and got the No. 1 pick in the draft) by way of tiebreakers. There just wasn't much difference among the bottom 10 teams.

3. We're talking about a Marty Schottenheimer-coached team. The knock on Marty has never been that he's a bad coach. It's that his teams stink in the playoffs. That 4-12 record was, by far, the worst of a Schottenheimer-coached team. This is a coach who, in 17 full seasons before '03, had 12 winning years, two losing ones and three 8-8s (Including one that, despite closing the season 8-3, got him replaced by Steve Spurrier).

4. Most important of all, the teams at the bottom of the NFL standings one year almost always get better the next year. I looked at every two-year period since 1992-93, the beginning of free agency and thus the start of today's competitive structure. Out of 12 such periods, only once did the team with the fewest victories post a worse mark the next year: The Jets went from 3-13 in 1995 to 1-15 in 1996. In two cases, the worst team's record stayed the same: The Bengals went 3-13 in 1993, then again in 1994; and the Colts posted identical 3-13 records in 1997 and 1998. The other nine teams got better. But there's more: The '95 Jets, '93 Bengals and '97 Colts were far and away the worst in the league in those seasons. San Diego was just one of several teams huddled together in the NFL cellar in '03. So, to get a better sense of how the league's entire lower rung fares, I again went back to 1992. I looked at the performance of teams that finished 4-12 or worse. The numbers may surprise you:

• Of 48 teams finishing 4-12 or worse, 42 finished with a better record the next year, 4 showed no improvement, and just 2 got worse.
• The average change was an improvement of 3.18 games.
• The median change was an improvement of 3 games.
• The most common result was an improvement of 4 games -- nine out of the 48 teams.

There are so many reasons for these numbers. Bad teams can't get much worse, at least record-wise, so they almost have to get better. Bad teams replace their head coaches, coordinators, GMs, players. Bad teams get high draft picks. All true. But the fact remains: You finish 4-12, you're almost guaranteed to get better. The Chargers would've had to pick up just one more win to top the over/under. That's a no-brainer.

(Update 02/07/05: Raw numbers posted.)