When things can't get worse ...

Here are the raw numbers for the post of Feb. 5, "$100 on the over, and Charge it." These are the teams that have gone 4-12 or worse since 1992, with their records for the following year, and the victory differential from the first year to the next. Obviously, as this is not the NBA, none of these teams qualified for the postseason in the first year. Those that made the playoffs in the second season are indicated by (P).

YEAR	TEAM	W-L	NEXT SEASON	CHANGE
1992	Patriots	2-14	5-11	+3
	Seahawks	2-14	6-10	+4
	Cardinals	4-12	7-9	+5
1993	Bengals	3-13	3-13	--
	Colts	4-12	8-8	+4
	Redskins	4-12	3-13	-1
1994	Oilers	2-14	7-9	+5
	Bengals	3-13	7-9	+4
	Redskins	4-12	6-10	+2
	Rams	4-12	7-9	+5
1995	Jets	3-13	1-15	-2
	Jaguars	4-12	9-7 (P)	+5
	Cardinals	4-12	7-9	+3
1996	Jets	1-15	9-7	+8
	Saints	3-13	6-10	+3
	Falcons	3-13	7-9	+4
	Ravens	4-12	6-9-1	+2.5
1997	Colts	3-13	3-13	--
	Chargers	4-12	5-11	+1
	Cardinals	4-12	9-7 (P)	+5
	Raiders	4-12	8-8	+4
	Bears	4-12	4-12	--
1998	Eagles	3-13	5-11	+2
	Bengals	3-13	4-12	+1
	Colts	3-13	13-3 (P)	+10
	Bears	4-12	6-10	+2
	Rams	4-12	13-3 (P)	+9
	Panthers	4-12	8-8	+4
1999	Browns	2-14	3-13	+1
	Saints	3-13	10-6 (P)	+7
	49ers	4-12	6-10	+2
	Bengals	4-12	4-12	--
2000	Chargers	1-15	5-11	+4
	Cardinals	3-13	7-9	+4
	Browns	3-13	7-9	+4
	Bengals	4-12	6-10	+2
	Falcons	4-12	7-9	+3
2001	Panthers	1-15	7-9	+6
	Lions	2-14	3-13	+1
	Bills	3-13	8-8	+5
2002	Bengals	2-14	8-8	+6
	Lions	3-13	5-11	+2
	Texans	4-12	5-11	+1
	Bears	4-12	7-9	+3
2003	Chargers	4-12	12-4 (P)	+8
	Raiders	4-12	5-11	+1
	Cardinals	4-12	6-10	+2
	Giants	4-12	6-10	+2
2004	49ers	2-14	??	??
	Dolphins	4-12	??	??
	Browns	4-12	??	??

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Update 2/10/05: And just for hoots, here are the teams that have finished 12-4 or better since 1992. All made the playoffs in the first year. "P?" indicates whether the team made the playoffs in the second year. As you would expect, when a team wins three-quarters of its games, it's awfully hard to improve. Of the 46 teams here, only 3 improved; 35 got worse; and 8 had no change. On average, teams had 3.2 fewer victories the next year. The median result was 2.75 fewer victories. The most common result was no change at all.

Interestingly, all of 2003's top teams had over/unders of 11.5 or lower for 2004. Apparently, the oddsmakers were flat-out positive that the Chargers weren't going to improve, yet they hedged on the good teams.

YEAR	TEAM	W-L	NEXT SEASON	CHANGE	P?
1992	49ers	14-2	10-6	-4	Y
	Cowboys	13-3	12-4	-1	Y
	Saints	12-4	8-8	-4	N
1993	Cowboys	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	Bills	12-4	7-9	-3	N
	Oilers	12-4	2-14	-10	N
1994	49ers	13-3	11-5	-2	Y
	Cowboys	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	Steelers	12-4	11-5	-1	Y
1995	Chiefs	13-3	9-7	-4	N
	Cowboys	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
1996	Packers	13-3	13-3	--	Y
	Broncos	13-3	12-4	-1	Y
	Panthers	12-4	7-9	-5	N
	49ers	12-4	13-3	+1	Y
1997	Packers	13-3	11-5	-2	Y
	Chiefs	13-3	7-9	-4	N
	49ers	13-3	12-4	-1	Y
	Broncos	12-4	14-2	+2	Y
1998	Vikings	15-1	10-6	-5	Y
	Broncos	14-2	6-10	-8	N
	Falcons	14-2	5-11	-9	N
	49ers	12-4	4-12	-8	N
	Jets	12-4	8-8	-4	N
1999	Jaguars	14-2	7-9	-7	N
	Rams	13-3	10-6	-4	Y
	Titans	13-3	13-3	--	Y
	Colts	13-3	10-6	-3	Y
2000	Titans	13-3	7-9	-6	N
	Ravens	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
	Giants	12-4	7-9	-5	N
	Raiders	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
2001	Rams	14-2	7-9	-7	N
	Steelers	13-3	10-5-1	-2.5	Y
	Bears	13-3	4-12	-9	N
	Packers	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	49ers	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
2002	Buccaneers	12-4	7-9	-5	N
	Eagles	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	Packers	12-4	10-6	-2	Y
2003	Patriots	14-2	14-2	--	Y
	Chiefs	13-3	7-9	-6	N
	Colts	12-4	12-4	--	Y
	Titans	12-4	5-11	-7	N
	Eagles	12-4	13-3	+1	Y
	Rams	12-4	8-8	-4	Y
2004	Steelers	15-1	??	??
	Patriots	14-2	??	??
	Eagles	13-3	??	??
	Colts	12-4	??	??
	Chargers	12-4	??	??