Preseason Super Bowl data dump!

As the 2005 NFL season gets underway, fans of every team have hope. Or so they say. This could be the year your boys will win it all. Or so you say. What many don't realize is that, buried in the regular season, there are clues as to who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy come February. See, it's not who you beat, not how you win. No, it's how you lose.

BIGGEST REGULAR SEASON LOSSES
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER

PTS.	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	LOST TO	SCORE	WEEK
32	1994 49ers	Eagles	40-8	5
31	2003 Patriots	Bills	31-0	1
31	1976 Raiders	Patriots	48-17	4
28	1979 Steelers	Chargers	35-7	12
24	1992 Cowboys	Eagles	31-7	5
24	1979 Steelers	Bengals	34-10	7
22	1988 49ers	Rams	38-16	16
20	2001 Patriots	Dolphins	30-20	4
20	1970 Colts	Chiefs	44-24	2

Conclusion: Anyone can have a really bad game. Or in the case of the 1979 Steelers, two really bad games. It's best to get them out of your system early. Unless you're the 1988 49ers and you go into the last week of the season battling for a playoff spot and then get blown out the door by one of the very teams you're battling. In that case, you're just lucky the entire league is playing aimless ball, perhaps still logy from the strike.

FEWEST POINTS IN A REGULAR SEASON GAME
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER

PTS.	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	LOST TO	SCORE	WEEK
0	2003 Patriots	Bills	31-0	1
0	1974 Steelers	Raiders	17-0	3
3	2001 Patriots	Jets	10-3	2
3	2000 Ravens	Redskins	10-3	7
3	1990 Giants	49ers	7-3	13
3	1988 49ers	Raiders	9-3	11
3	1975 Steelers	Rams	10-3	14
3	1973 Dolphins	Colts	16-3	13

Conclusions: If you're going to go and get shut out, do it early in the season. If all you can muster is a field goal, the other guys can't score more than one touchdown. You're going to need a great defense if your kicker is your offense's fantasy player of the year. (The Ravens scored 6 points or less in four games in 2000 and lost all four.) Cut Lawyer Milloy at the start of camp, not the end. Or cut him in June.

What happens when teams face each other in the regular season and then in the Super Bowl? Well ...

REGULAR SEASON LOSSES AVENGED IN SUPER BOWL

SEASON	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	OPPONENT	RS RESULT	WEEK	SB RESULT
2001	Patriots	Rams	24-17, STL	10	20-17, NE
1999	Rams	Titans	24-21, TEN	8	23-16, STL
1993	Cowboys	Bills	13-10, BUF	2	30-13, DAL
1990	Giants	Bills	17-13, BUF	15	20-19, NYG
1983	Raiders	Redskins	37-35, WSH	5	38-9, LA
1980	Raiders	Eagles	10-7, PHI	12	27-10, OAK

TEAMS BEATING SAME FOE IN REGULAR SEASON, SUPER BOWL

SEASON	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	OPPONENT	RS RESULT	WEEK	SB RESULT
1994	49ers	Chargers	19-16, SF	15	49-26, SF
1986	Giants	Broncos	19-16, NYG	12	39-20, NYG
1985	Bears	Patriots	20-7, CHI	2	46-10, CHI
1981	49ers	Bengals	21-3, SF	14	26-21, SF

Conclusion: Hey man, the statistics don't lie. If you think your team might wind up playing a given week's opponent again in the Super Bowl, you're 50% better off losing that regular season game than winning it. Preferably by 3 points or so. So keep this in mind when, say, New England plays Atlanta, or when Minnesota plays Pittsburgh, or when Philadelphia plays ... I don't know, San Diego? This isn't me talking here, it's history.

TEAMS NEVER TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER

Panthers	Buccaneers	Ravens
Texans	Jaguars

Conclusion: You lose to any of these teams, start looking forward to next year.

TEAMS TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
TWICE IN THE REGULAR SEASON

SEASON	TEAM	SB CHAMP-TO-BE	RS SCORES
2002	Saints	Buccaneers	26-20, 23-20
1995	Redskins	Cowboys	27-23, 24-17
1983	Seahawks	Raiders	38-36, 34-21

Conclusion: Hm. I guess it's a good sign if you lose twice to the 2002 Saints, '95 Redskins or '83 Seahawks. What really jumps out at me is that in the seven NFL seasons that I've been living in Washington, the Redskins have gone 1-13 against the Cowboys. They can't beat Dallas even when the Cowboys are dreadful. But in 1995, the 6-10 -- 6-10! -- Redskins beat Dallas twice. Dallas lost four games that year: to the Eagles (10-6, No. 1 Wild Card), to the 49ers (11-5, NFC West champs) and twice to the Redskins. Heath Shuler started one of those games. There's nothing to be learned from this statistic. Science is about recognizing the limits of your data.