Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Week 7 without honor or humanity

This week's gruesome 6-7 showing in the picks makes perfect sense when you understand that no one in the NFL wants to stand out this year. Last season, the Steelers won a Super Bowl championship by futzing around until every game became a must-win. So now everybody wants to stay on the bubble as long as possible. Thus, I lost three games on last-second field goals, one game on a boneheaded end-zone interception, and two games in which allegedly top-drawer teams rolled over for stiffs. And I also picked Arizona to win. That one's entirely on me.

CORRECT PICKS
Denver 17, Cleveland 7: How good are the Broncos? For the fourth week in a row, exactly 10 points better than the opposition. It's what they call "playing to the level of the opponent." Cleveland does it every week, too, except they lose.

New England 28, Buffalo 6: In Week 1, these two teams played in Foxboro, and the Pats barely eked out a 19-17 win. Now, suddenly the Patriots are 5-1, and the Dick Jauron hire continues to pay Buffalo exactly the kind of dividends you would expect.

Green Bay 32, Miami 24: Like I'm proud of this.

N.Y. Jets 31, Detroit 24: The Jets have already matched their win total from 2005. With the Steelers falling to pieces and the Dolphins DOA, what's to say the J-E-T-S couldn't slide into the No. 6 playoff spot in the AFC? They still have the Browns, Texans, Packers, Bills, Dolphins and Raiders to look forward to, so just beating the crappy teams on the schedule would get them to 10-6. If they can take one from the Vikings, Bears or Patriots, suddenly they'd be 11-5.

Indianapolis 36, Washington 22: Yes, Peyton Manning had a huge game, but before we get too excited, let's notice that in the box score, in the space for the visiting team, it says "Washington." These guys lost to the Titans last week. The Titans! Down and Distance isn't big on "conventional wisdom," but we live in Washington, where everybody else swears by it. And the local conventional wisdom holds that "in the offense, you gotta get the ball to your playmakers." With that in mind, some stats -- TD passes thrown to James Thrash: 1. TD passes thrown to Antwaan Randle El, Brandon Lloyd and Santana Moss combined: 0. It's a red herring, sure, but everyone else in town will be dining on it.

N.Y. Giants 36, Dallas 22: Hey, what's going on with that Tiki Barber guy? Haven't heard much about him lately. Why did I pick the Giants on the road here? Because the Cowboys are being consumed from within. Bill Parcells pulling Drew Bledsoe after one interception was the second-least-surprising thing to happen in this game. And he least surprising thing? Tony Romo throwing three interceptions after replacing Bledsoe. No, he actually isn't the answer. You didn't know that?

INCORRECT PICKS
Tampa Bay 23, Philadelphia 21: Donovan McNabb throws a career-high five touchdown passes, but only three of them to his own team, as the Buccaneers "beat" the Eagles the same way the Bears "beat" the Cardinals last Monday.

Cincinnati 17, Carolina 14: In his career, Jake Delhomme had never turned the ball over inside the opponents' 10 yard line. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Bengals could win the AFC North by default.

Atlanta 41, Pittsburgh 38 (OT): And the Steeler bandwagon throws a rod after just one week. In the first half alone we saw both how Pittsburgh rolled to two decisive wins this year -- by moving the ball at will -- and how Pittsburgh chalked up three embarrassing losses -- with all kinds of mental errors. Yet they were still ahead by three, until Ben Roethlisberger broke something else.

Kansas City 30, San Diego 27: On the way to 8-8, you're going to win a couple good ones here and there, especially when you can catch the Chargers sniffing their shorts for a half.

Houston 27, Jacksonville 7: Wow. Not even close. Suddenly the Jaguars' loss to Washington doesn't seem like such a fluke.

Minnesota 31, Seattle 13: Wow. Not even close. Suddenly the Vikings' win over Washington doesn't seem like such a fluke

Oakland 22, Arizona 6: This time the Cardinals tried spotting the other team a 14-point lead in the first quarter, and yet the result was the same. Behold the power of the red bird: Arizona has forced 11 turnovers in their last two games, and still lost both times.

THIS WEEK: 6-7
SEASON: 64-36
(64.0%)
(2005 through Week 7: 64-38)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 7
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK7 = This week's ranking. WK6 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
WK7WK6TEAMPOWWK7WK6TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001717Panthers 35.09
22 Chargers 81.171819Chiefs 33.96
33 Broncos 72.651918Seahwaks 27.69
47 Patriots 69.532021Jets 27.52
56 Ravens 65.802120Redskins 25.25
69 Colts 58.182228Packers 19.67
78 Eagles 56.392322Cardinals 18.07
84 Cowboys 54.572425Dolphins 16.07
910Saints 54.48T2524Browns 15.64
1016Vikings 51.89T2526Lions 15.64
1113Giants 50.972729Bucs 14.05
125 Jaguars 50.652823Bills 11.70
1312Falcons 46.622931Texans 10.73
1411Steelers46.26302749ers 10.39
1514Bengals 45.223130Titans 0.84
1615Rams 42.633232Raiders 0.00

Teams eliminated this week from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Redskins, Browns, Bills. Teams previously eliminated: Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Week 6, now with Retsin!

I have to say, I'd never spent a Monday night hoping that the team I picked would lose. But seeing Arizona thoroughly dominate the Bears for three quarters made me say, "Hey, this would be a really nice story if the Cardinals won." Yeah, well. Get ready for a week of how-resilient-are-the-Bears stories rather than a week of what-the-fuck-is-wrong-with-Rex stories. With Chicago's ridiculous victory, I finished 9-4 for the week in the picks, which doesn't seem like much, but no one did any better, and 16 out of 22 did worse.

Because this is Week 6, Down and Distance has begun tracking the teams that have been eliminated from consideration for the Super Bowl championship. Why Week 6? See our explanation from last year. The upshot is that no team can be expected to win the Super Bowl after losing five games in the regular season. Two teams have proved themselves exceptions: the Patriots and Steelers. So they get eliminated at six losses.

So as this rap is winding down, it's plain to see I forgot my hat ...

CORRECT PICKS
Seattle 30, St. Louis 28: In Week 3, the Rams were leading by 2 when the Cardinals turned the ball over in field goal range in the final two minutes. The Rams won to improve to 2-1. In Week 4, the Rams were leading by 7 when the Lions turned the ball over in the final two minutes. The Rams won to improve to 3-1. In Week 5, the Rams were leading by 3 when the Packers turned the ball over in field goal range in the final two minutes. The Rams won to improve to 4-1. On Sunday, Week 6, the Rams were trailing by 6 when the Seahawks turned the ball over in field goal range in the final three minutes. The Rams scored, then the Seahawks scored, and the Rams lost. Give St. Louis credit for being better than some people (me) were willing to admit, but don't give them too much credit. When you're up 21-7 on the defending division and conference champions, you have to slam the door. Referee-Administered Beatdown of the Week: Ed Hochuli tells the St. Louis crowd -- and Rams coach Scott Linehan, who's dancing around like a fool on the sideline -- that the offensive penalty against Seattle did not, in fact, end the game. Nonsensical Faux-Insight Quote of the Week: After Deion Branch caught his second TD on a sweet fade from Matt Hasselbeck, Fox commentator Ron Pitts declared, "They'll say it every time, because it's true: A perfect throw will beat perfect coverage all day long." This appears to be an attempt to adapt the baseball adage "good pitching beats good hitting" to football. The problem, Pitts, is that in football a perfect throw is, by definition, one that beats the coverage. It's like saying, "You know, if you want three points, you should kick the ball through the uprights." Idiot.

N.Y. Giants 27, Atlanta 14: I admit that I loves to make me some fun of the fact that when Michael Vick is in one of his little grooves, he couldn't hit a receiver on the hands even if he had a ruler and a nun's habit. (Does that even make any sense?) But Sunday, he ws not in one of those grooves. Five minutes into the first quarter, he laid a pass right on Roddy White's butter-coated fingers; White not only tipped the ball to Giants DB Sam Madison, he also quit on the play as Madison ran the INT back upfield. About seven minutes later, Vick launched a 65-yard rocket that came down square on the damn palms of Michael Jenkins, who dropped it. With Vick's receivers working overtime to screw him, the Giants eventually took the lead. Jeremy Shockey caught two touchdowns; I'm sure we'll all be sorry for that soon enough.

Dallas 34, Houston 6: In the football equivalent of winning the battle but losing the war, the Cowboys got the ball to Terrell Owens for three touchdowns. Here's why the Texans are the Texans: With 34 seconds left in the first half and the game tied 3-3, Houston had 3rd-and-1 at the Dallas 31. Common sense says you either take a shot at the end zone or you throw a quick out to the sideline to try to get the first down and kill the clock. So long as you don't throw an interception, you can only benefit. Houston's call? Ron Dayne off right tackle for no gain. Houston kicks the field goal -- which is all it would have been able to do even if Dayne had gotten the first down -- to go up 6-3. Dallas promptly scores 31 unanswered in the second half.

Detroit 20, Buffalo 17: A total turkey, this game. The only thing that redeemed it was Roy Williams' touchdown celebration at the end of the first half. After catching a 28-yard TD in the back corner of the end zone, Williams made a beeline for a 5- or 6-year-old kid sitting in the front row, hopped onto the rail fronting the stands, handed the kid the ball and tousled his hair. The kid was wearing Williams' No. 11 jersey. Too cute. The only thing missing was a kitty-cat, though Roary tried to stick his sorry flammable ass in there. In the fourth quarter, CBS put up a graphic purporting to show what a clutch quarterback J.P. Losman is. In the fourth quarter of games this season, it said, he had completed nearly 70% of his passes for 231 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions and a 99.4 rating. The graphic left out the fact that in the fourth quarter in Week 1, Losman took a sack in the end zone for a game-losing safety. And that one fourth-quarter TD pass? It came in the final minute against the Bears last week when the Bills were down 40-0. He's like Elway out there!

San Diego 48, San Francisco 19: Probably doesn't make Stan Humphries and Natrone Means feel any better, but there had to have been some longtime Charger fan somewhere whispering "take that" as LaDainian Tomlinson scored his fourth touchdown.

N.Y. Jets 20, Miami 17: What a dog. CBS can send its No. 1 team to the Meadowlands to hype up Jets-Dolphins as a meaningful game, but a dog's a dog.

Pittsburgh 45, Kansas City 7: The Bengals have crumbled. The Ravens, they stumbled. The Browns just bumbled. And Pittsbrugh rumbled! K.C. was humbled. Herm Edwards grumbled. Big Ben mumbled: "So what if I tumbled? It's not like I fumbled." AFC North is jumbled.

Denver 13, Oakland 3: It's always nice to win by 10 points, and Denver has done so each of the past three weeks. But a 17-7 victory over the unbeaten Patriots and a 13-3 victory over the unbeaten Ravens are considerably more impressive than a 13-3 win over the winless Raiders. Something's just wrong in the mountains when Oakland, at 0-5, is the only team to have scored fewer points than the 4-1 Broncos.

Chicago 24, Arizona 23: All week we'd been hearing about how this was going to be an ugly blowout. On offense, we'd see a team move the ball at will and build a big lead. On defense, we'd see them beat the holy hell out of ballcarriers and pressure their opponent's young quarterback into costly mistakes. And for the first three quarters, that team was the Cardinals? Then, in the fourth quarter, when all Arizona needed to do was get a few first downs and keep the clock moving, Dennis Green abandoned the short passing game that had shredded the Bears and instead played the send-Edgerrin-into-the-teeth-of-the-beast-on-every-play card. How was Chicago able to come all the way back? Because Green's play-calling extended the game by a full half-hour. Regardless of all that, what we saw at the Pink Taco was what happens when you get caught looking past an opponent -- any opponent -- in the NFL. You show up on Monday Night Football preening and dancing and flexing your muscles for the cameras and before you know it you're down 20 points -- and you're lucky it's not 30. I've already explained what the lesson of this game for the Cardinals was. You figure out what it should be for the Bears. Probably that they shouldn't let Rex Grossman read about himself in the newspaper anymore.

INCORRECT PICKS
New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24: It's not as if the Eagles were ambushed by some fired-up Division I-AA program here. The Saints were 4-1 coming in and had dismantled the Falcons on national television. Remember? That game with all the people talking about the hurricanes? The president's dad flipped the coin? That one. And yet the Eagles gagged lolly for the whole first and second quarters, showed up briefly for the third, then got their asses delivered to them in the fourth. All right, Philadelphia, laissez la panique rouler! During the game, the Fox crew threw up a graphic that was meant, I guess, to demonstrate that the Saints are the league's most woeful franchise. New Orleans is one of only three NFL teams, the Chyron said, never to have appeared in either a Super Bowl or a pre-merger NFL championship game. The others two clubs are Jacksonville and Houston, both of which are considerably younger than the Saints (and the Jaguars have at least been to a conference championship game twice). This was true, as far as it went, but let's look at it another way: How long have fans of each franchise been waiting for their team to appear in a title game? The longest waits, in years:
TEAMSEASON / EVENTYRS
Steelers 2005 Super Bowl 1
Seahawks 2005 Super Bowl 1
Patriots 2004 Super Bowl 2
Eagles 2004 Super Bowl 2
Panthers 2003 Super Bowl 3
Bucs 2002 Super Bowl 4
Raiders 2002 Super Bowl 4
Texans 2002 Expansion 4
Rams 2001 Super Bowl 5
Giants 2000 Super Bowl 6
Ravens 2000 Super Bowl 6
Titans 1999 Super Bowl 7
Broncos 1998 Super Bowl 8
Falcons 1998 Super Bowl 8
Packers 1997 Super Bowl 9
Cowboys 1995 Super Bowl 11
Jaguars 1995 Expansion 11
49ers 1994 Super Bowl 12
Chargers 1994 Super Bowl 12
Bills 1993 Super Bowl 13
Redskins 1991 Super Bowl 15
Bengals 1988 Super Bowl 18
Bears 1985 Super Bowl 21
Dolphins 1984 Super Bowl 22
Vikings 1976 Super Bowl 30
Colts 1970 Super Bowl 35
Chiefs 1969 Super Bowl 36
Browns 1969 NFL Champ. 36
Jets 1968 Super Bowl 37
Saints 1967 Expansion 39
Lions 1957 NFL Champ. 49
Cardinals 1948 NFL Champ. 58
Ah, the usual suspects!

Tennessee 25, Washington 22: Washington started out looking great, but then, as usual, they filled their underwear as soon as they fell behind. The Redskins, like the Eagles, can't say they couldn't have seen it coming. The Titans very nearly beat the Colts last week -- although nearly beating the Colts doesn't really seem to be as difficult as it once was. What made this one a real huckleberry was that it wasn't No. 1 USA Superstar Vince Young who ran wild on the Redskins, but Travis Henry. Travis Henry! I don't know what's wrong with the Redskins, though everyone else in town seems to. (Brandon Lloyd's theory: Not enough Brandon Lloyd in the gameplan. And he may be right.) It's either too many stars, or not enough stars, or not enough stars in the right places. I'll wait for the local hive mind to weigh in on Redskins Lunch. One post-game caller, though, opined that the 2-4 record is the fault of "all these defensive coordinators they keep bringing in." Has someone told Gregg Williams about these guys?

Carolina 23, Baltimore 21: I'd have picked the Panthers if I'd known Steve McNair was going to get hurt! Heh. Touchdown passes in five-plus games this year by McNair, who was brought in because Kyler Boller sucks: 5. Touchdown passes Sunday by Kyle Boller: 3. The best thing about statistics like these is that you can't tell when they've been twisted grotesquely out of context. Carolina does this to me every year: They come out and crap their pants in the opener, stumble around unimpressively for a few weeks, and then all of a sudden are 4-2. You don't want to say it's all Steve Smith, but ... you don't have to, because I just said it.

Tampa Bay 14, Cincinnati 13: I'm not saying that wasn't a touchdown on the play that got reviewed right at the end, but if there was indisputable visual evidence, I didn't see it. I watched maybe 10 minutes of this game over the course of the afternoon, and it was 10 minutes too many. Pee-yoo. Cincy appears to have peaked. The question in: Has Tampa?

THIS WEEK: 9-4
SEASON: 58-29
(66.2%)
(2005 through Week 6: 56-32)




KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 6
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. (Key: WK6 = This week's ranking. WK5 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
WK6WK5TEAMPOWWK6WK5TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001717Panthers 45.06
22 Chargers 95.711818Seahawks 44.57
39 Broncos 72.95197 Chiefs 40.24
412Cowboys 70.562019Redskins 38.87
56 Jaguars 70.462124Jets 32.76
63 Ravens 70.452222Cardinals32.60
78 Patriots 65.952323Bills 30.94
85 Eagles 65.382421Browns 30.32
911Colts 61.912526Dolphins 27.42
1010Saints 60.662628Lions 25.99
1120Steelers58.37272549ers 22.57
124 Falcons 55.852827Packers 21.87
1316Giants 54.162930Bucs 19.06
1413Bengals 52.123031Titans 14.32
1514Rams 50.423129Texans 9.52
1615Vikings 50.403232Raiders 0.00

Teams eliminated from Super Bowl championship consideration (what?): Raiders, Titans, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

In defense of Harrington
... or maybe I mean Culpepper

3 8 special

The Miami Dolphins have benched Daunte Culpepper -- possibly for the rest of the season -- and will be starting Joey Harrington at quarterback. This tells us:

A) Harrington is a better quarterback than Culpepper.
B) Culpepper's knee is not fully healed after he tore his ACL, his MCL ... pretty much every CL except NaCl.
C) The 2004 Detroit Lions offensive line was worse than the 2004 Minnesota Vikings offensive line.

The answer, obviously, is C. Because whenever a multiple-choice answer is a total non sequitur like that, it has to be the correct one. Congratulations. You just learned one of the secrets of journalism and mass communication.

In the Dolphins' first four games -- a sluggish loss to the Steelers, a shocking loss to the Bills, a gruesome win over the Titans and a humiliating loss to the Texans -- Culpepper was sacked 21 times. Last Sunday, in a predictable loss to the Patriots, Harrington was sacked just once. The numbers make sense if you noticed the subtle differences in the way they played. For example, when the rush closed in on Culpepper, he'd hold the ball, hold the ball, hold the ball, then do a little cha-cha-cha before going down in an embarrassing pile. When the rush closed in on Harrington, on the other hand, his eyes would get big like pie plates and he would dump the ball off or throw it away. Neither quarterback was making Miami fans forget Dan Marino, or even Jay Fiedler, but our pal Joey at least helped the cause by not losing 12 yards every other time he dropped back. Hell, if Harrington hadn't thrown two interceptions, the Dolphins might have even beaten the Patriots. Which is sort of like saying that except for that business at Dealey Plaza, Jackie had a great time in Dallas.

The question has been circulating for a year now: What's wrong with Culpepper? The conventional wisdom -- the kind of thinking Down and Distance sneers at unless we can get a funny joke out of it -- held that Culpepper was lost without his longtime favorite target, Randy Moss, who was run out of Minnesota for miscreant behavior a season before Culpepper had the same thing done to him. (To be fair, if I had to pick a player to live in my neighborhood, I'd rather have the one who played dice on a boat full of strippers rather than the one who tried to run over a meter maid. But I'm a native Minnesotan.) And yes, Culpepper did indeed go ass-up as soon as he had to play without Moss: Coming off an incredible season in 2004, he opened 2005 with 8 interceptions and no touchdowns in his first two games. Last year, in games against teams that weren't living out of suitcases in San Antonio, he threw just three touchdowns and 12 interceptions before his knee was destroyed (a medical term) against Carolina in the seventh game of the season.

The most significant difference between the 2004 Vikings and the 2005 Vikings, however, wasn't the disappearance of Randy Moss; it was the loss of four-time Pro Bowl center Matt Birk, who sat out the year recovering both from hip surgery and from the team's well-thought-out, cheap-ass way of doing business. Without Birk to keep the bad guys out of the pocket, Culpepper was missing a critical element of his success: not Moss, but time. Facing the kind of relentless pocket pressure he had never before experienced, he started off dreadfully in 2005. And just when he seemed to be adjusting -- we forget that the week before his injury, he had a passer rating of 123.1 against the Packers -- he was out for the year.

So we zip forward to 2006, and here's Culpepper in Miami. Remember? The Dolphins were going to challenge the Pats for the AFC East title? They had an outside shot at the Super Bowl? And then the season started, and Miami went plunk! right into the toilet, and the first thing we heard was the old Victrola playing Culpepper Can't Do It Without Moss (which is a Lindy, I think). The second thing we heard was "Culpepper is no good if he can't run." Which is pretty silly, too, because even if he didn't have a knee rebuilt out of an Erector Set, where's he going to run to? A "mobile" quarterback, however you want to define that, isn't out there by himself. He has to have a line in front of him holding off the rush so he either has the time to wait for a receiver to get open or has an escape route should he pull the ball down and run with it. Michael Vick is an exciting guy and a tough little bastard, but if he didn't have a halfway-decent line, his career would be over by now. (It'll be short enough as it is.) Culpepper wasn't getting any protection from his line, but he didn't seem to realize it. This is not a guy who's used to the pocket collapsing around him. In Minnesota, pre-2005, he occasionally experienced protection problems and from time to time took a "coverage sack." But in Miami he's been stuck behind the Maginot Line. He holds the ball too long because throughout his career he's never had to get rid of it in a hurry. He tries to run because he thinks there's going to be someplace to go. And, of course, on some level he doesn't realize that the knee still ain't right. Oh yeah, and no Randy Moss. Put it together, and you've got a disaster.

And this all leads us back to Harrington, who still, resolutely, goes by "Joey" when it's really got to be easier in the locker room if you're a "Joe." Down and Distance has always been something of a Joey Harrington fan, though not really for his play. The guy is probably a career backup, and there's no shame in that. What you have to respect about Harrington, though, is that he hung in there as long as he did in Detroit, where he was set up to fail from the time he arrived as the third overall pick in the 2002 draft. (Please note that he went to Oregon, the school that hyped the Smith brothers, Akili and Onterrio, all the way into the NFL. Oregon's mascot should probably be the Red Herring rather than the Duck.) Once Harrington got into the league, Detroit Lions resident genius Matt Millen stuck him first with a coach who didn't know what he was doing (Marty Mornhinwheg), then one who never had any intention of giving him a shot (Steve Mariucci). Millen supplied Harrington a cadre of receivers whose egos were as fragile as their clavicles, plus a twelfth-rate offensive line. And when Harrington proved himself only an average quarterback, which, considering the circumstances, was not too shabby, Millen let him take all the blame for the franchise's pathetic condition.

But as it turns out, Harrington may get the last laugh. (Or, he would if anyone in Miami can laugh anymore.) As it turns out, three-and-a-half years running for your life in Detroit prepares you perfectly to play quarterback for the 2006 Miami Dolphins. As it turns out, the Dolphins didn't need a quarterback who won games with a good team; they needed one who lost games on a bad team. Culpepper put up fantastic numbers in Minnesota by throwing the ball to trapeze artists from behind the Berlin Wall. Harrington put up mediocre numbers in Detroit by throwing the ball sideways as the building collapsed around him. Who do you think is better prepared for the job in Miami?

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Week 5 recap, mostly T.O.-free

After two weeks in which I barely kept my head above water at 8-6, I turned in a solid 12-2 this week in The Writers Picks, posted here. Of course, I wasn't the only one at 12-2. And several people went 14-0, so it's not like I climbed in the standings. I could have gone 14-0, too. If, say, Brett Favre had not gone Kurt Warner and fumbled the ball away in field goal range. And if, say, Drew Bledsoe had thrown fewer passes to a) Terrell Owens, and b) Eagles defenders. Then I would have been undefeated, and everyone else would be looking up at me. Now, if you'll excuse me. I have some tile to regrout in the bathroom.

CORRECT PICKS
Indianapolis 14, Tennessee 13: The Colts continue to crumble. You can any-given-Sunday this all you want, but a come-from-behind victory over a Titans team that got waxed by Dallas last week is even less impressive than last week's come-from-behind victory over a Jets team that got waxed by the Jaguars this week. Don't let 5-0 fool you: Indianapolis is falling apart. The line on this game, by the way, was Colts by 18 1/2 points. Only the worst kind of sucker would fall for that.

Chicago 40, Buffalo 7: The Bears are the anti-Colts. Both teams are 5-0, but while Indianapolis is eking out increasingly tiny victories over increasingly lousy teams, Chicago is kicking the crap out of all comers, from the defending NFC champions of Seattle to the meandering boys of Buffalo. There are as yet no visible weaknesses. The defense eats children 5 and up for breakfast. The running game is clomping waffle marks into opposing linebackers. Rex Grossman is firing on as many cylinders as you want to give him. And we're getting into the part of the season where Lovie Smith wears that hat so unapologetically. This is the most dominant team the league has had in years. Notice I didn't say the "best" team. It's too early to make that kind of judgment. I said the "most dominant" team. The way they're blowing people into Lake Michigan is incredible.

New York Giants 19, Washington 3: The Redskins are better than this. They have to be. Seeing Eli Manning hang in there and deliver the ball knowing that he was going to get blasted almost makes me want to take back some of the bad things I said about him last year. And last week. (I said almost.) Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora both got a sack Sunday, so we can all shut up about that for a while. It's Mark Brunell -- he's 55 years old. You could sack him from a wheelchair.

Carolina 20, Cleveland 12: This week's least-surprising result.

Minnesota 26, Detroit 17: Purple and fool's gold. This was the first time the Vikings scored more than 20 points this season, no thanks to the offense. You can't count on your defense to score two touchdowns every week, nor can you count on the other team to give the game away in the waning minutes.

New Orleans 24, Tampa Bay 21: At halftime, Fox's Jimmy Johnson declared that when Chris Simms returns, he'll probably do so as Bruce Gradkowski's backup. Maybe so, but jeez. Perhaps we could give Gradkowski more than one TD pass -- and let Simms' body get cold -- before we start bending over backwards with the Tom Brady comparisons. He lost the game, for God's sake.

New England 20, Miami 10: Speaking of the Hollerin' Yokels of Fox NFL Sunday, Terry Bradshaw declared on the pregame: "I never was a Culpepper fan because I thought Randy Moss made him the great quarterback that he was in Minnesota. Without Moss, Culpepper is a just a good quarterback." Actually, without Moss, Culpepper hasn't even been a good quarterback. Without Moss, Culpepper has been the kind of quarterback who makes people in South Florida suggest that Joey Harrington should start for a while. Harrington did start on Sunday, and for about a half he played better than Tom Brady. But only for a half. He'll hold the job until Culpepper recovers from his knee injury (for real, rather than in Dolphins Front Office Fantasy Land), which is the way it should have been back in August.

Kansas City 23, Arizona 20: Having a budding superstar like Matt Leinart taking the snaps is great, but when the clock ticks down to zero, it's the Cardinal on the helmet, not the name on the jersey, that matters most.

Jacksonville 41, N.Y. Jets 0: Watching the Jaguars choke away the game in Washington last week, it was inevitable that they'd come home and take out their aggression on the poor Jets. AP refers to this one as "the worst Jets loss in 20 years." I mean, yeah, it's embarrassing, but is it really worse than that cold January day in Pittsburgh when Doug Brien died? Here's the kind of day it was for Gang Green: Coach Eric Mangini ran quarterback-of-the-future Kellen Clemens out there for the last series just to get his feet wet in what would have been garbage time if the score had been 41-3. But it was 41-0, and the Jags were gunning for the shutout. So Clemens got sacked twice and fumbled the ball away. Welcome to the NFL. Now, kneel before Zod.

San Francisco 34, Oakland 20: The resistible force meets the movable object, and we have our answer: It's better to have a team full of marginal grinders than a team full of talented loafers.

San Diego 23, Pittsburgh 13: No doubt about it, Philip Rivers has made the Chargers "his" team. Meanwhile, his fellow member of the Class of 2004, Ben Roethlisberger, had nowhere to go but down after winning the Super Bowl. And down he goes.

Denver 13, New England 3: Another Monday night shootout. Remember when Steve McNair was going to invigorate the Baltimore offense? Remember when Jake Plummer quit making bad decisions? Regardless, the most important thing about this game is that Chris McAlister's fumble recovery appears to have made the difference in giving me my first-ever (and likely last-ever) fantasy football victory. My team, the Ramshackle Hobos, came into the weekend last in the league at 0-4. Lucky for me, my opponent was also 0-4 and appears to have already given up on his team. I didn't know Randy Moss played fantasy football!

INCORRECT PICKS
St. Louis 23, Green Bay 20: The upset special once again comes up one or two plays short. One of these days I'm gonna look like a genius, and you're all gonna say you knew me back when. Did I mention that I correctly picked the Ravens to upset the Steelers last year? After three straight narrow victories over the likes of the Cardinals, Lions and Packers, suddenly the Rams -- the Rams! -- are 4-1 and leading the NFC West. My, do cupcakes taste delicious!

Philadelphia 38, Dallas 24: The real shame of the T.O.-returns-to-Philly hoax was that it reduced Donovan McNabb, a decent man and a great damn quarterback, to a kind of grotesque sideshow -- one-half of a song-and-dance number of which he never wanted to be a part. So although I called this game wrong, it was pleasing to see McNabb put up ridiculous numbers (18-of-33 for 354 yards and 2 TDs) while Owens metastasized up and down the Dallas sideline.

THIS WEEK: 12-2
SEASON: 49-25
(66.2%)
(2005 through Week 3: 46-28)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 5
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team's ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK5 = This week's ranking. WK4 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score.)
WK5WK4TEAMPOWWK5WK4TEAMPOW
11 Bears 100.001722Panthers 37.57
22 Chargers 86.221819Seahawks 36.77
33 Ravens 70.461917Redskins 33.21
46 Falcons 63.202020Steelers 28.58
57 Eagles 61.942123Browns 25.55
616Jaguars 61.852225Cardinals 25.32
75 Chiefs 60.202314Bills 24.93
810Patriots 57.772415Jets 24.54
911Broncos 57.18252949ers 24.01
108 Saints 54.882624Dolphins 20.74
119 Colts 54.112728Packers 17.91
124 Cowboys 52.842826Lions 17.45
1312Bengals 46.612927Texans 14.45
1413Rams 45.753030Bucs 9.94
1518Vikings 43.703131Titans 2.69
1621Giants 42.233232Raiders 0.00

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Week 4 with a side of slaw

Another 8-6 week in the picks. I'm lucky I came out ahead at all after the events of the past week. First I mistook my Vicodin for Mentos, and then that dude cleated me in the melon. I'm a Cowboy, on a steel horse I ride.

CORRECT PICKS
Atlanta 32, Arizona 10: Michael Vick messed around and got a double-triple as the ... You know, it's just more fun to write about the Cardinals. After Sunday, Edgerrin James' per-carry average is down to 3.1 yards, a full yard lower than in all but one of his seasons in the league (2002, after he tore the ACL). At this rate, he'll need 323 carries just to reach 1,000 yards, but he won't be alive long enough to get them. That's what happens when your passing game is a mess. Last week, Kurt Warner was threatened with benching after he threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. What an improvement: only two fumbles (one lost) and an interception returned for a touchdown. Performances like that had Cardinals fans calling for Matt Leinart, who then came into the game, lost a fumble and threw an interception. Atlanta fans can enjoy the win, but should perhaps ask themselves why they could muster only one offensive touchdown vs. six field goals against the hardly stout Cardinals.

Kansas City 41, San Francisco 0: Now there's the 49ers we know and love. Poor San Francisco gets caught in the middle of the highway as Damon Huard takes out the accumulated road rage of 5 years of carrying a clipboard.

Dallas 45, Tennessee 14: The Cowboys went out and stomped the Titans. Only one Titan stomped back.

Indianapolis 31, New York Jets 28: Oh, the collapse is looming. The Colts barely beat the Giants, clobbered the Texans (which doesn't count), squeaked past the Jaguars and, Sunday, needed nearly every second of the game to edge the Jets. They're the weakest of the three remaining unbeaten teams. After watching Sunday's limp game plan by the Colts -- 3 yard run, 3 yard run, incomplete pass, punt -- I was left asking: The Colts do realize that although it's Eric Mangini standing over there, he isn't coaching the Patriots secondary anymore, right? Talk about traumatized. And I'd think that Colts special teams coach Russ Purnell would get an earful from Tony Dungy this week after giving up an onside kick and a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Except that I'm not sure anybody ever gets an earful from Tony Dungy.

Carolina 21, New Orleans 18: Carolina's now 2-2. At least no one had to get killed this week.

Cleveland 24, Oakland 21: The Fox Sports Game Trax report says, "The Cleveland Browns staged an improbable rally, winning 24-21 after trailing 21-3 in the first half." What's improbable about it? It's the Raiders. And if you don't know who Leigh Bodden is, just ask Randy Moss.

Chicago 37, Seattle 6: Wow, have the Seahawks fallen that far? More likely, the Bears have risen this far. Want trouble? Take a team that's tired of hearing about being the best in a soft division, put them on national TV against the defending conference champions, and then keep your head down. Will Rex Grossman get this team to the Super Bowl before the chip breaks his shoulder?

Philadelphia 31, Green Bay 9: Well, for a couple quarters that was uglier than it should have been. Attention Eagles equipment manager: You grease the footballs in practice, not in the real games.

INCORRECT PICKS

Baltimore 16, San Diego 13: Late in the game, with San Diego up 13-7, the Chargers recovered a fumble at the Baltimore 25. In such a tight game, another field goal might well have iced it for the Chargers, but they shot themselves in the face: A sloppy clipping penalty pushed them back 15 yards, then Mike Scifres bobbled a perfect snap on the field goal attempt. The CBS announcer declared: "The Ravens defense always comes up with the big play!" With Ben Roethlisberger regressing to the mean (and he hopes it's his mean rather than Mike Tomczak's) and the Bengals reading their own press clippings, the early answer to the AFC North's big question -- Steelers or Bengals? -- is "Ravens."

Buffalo 17, Minnesota 12: Another week, another four field goals for Minnesota. This time around, it wasn't enough, but hey, it never is.

Houston 17, Miami 15: The Down and Distance Curse-in-Reverse strikes again! The week after we trash a team, that team invariably goes out and plays inspired ball. "Plays inspired ball," in this case, means "hangs on by their toenails as the league's most feckless offense stumbles toward a comeback like a chicken with its head and both legs cut off." The big difference for Houston this week was that David Carr's fourth-quarter heroics (one TD running, one TD passing) came when the team was down by less than four touchdowns. And look at this: Mario Williams got one and a half sacks! I don't see how the Dolphins can sink any lower than this, but they have the Packers on the schedule in Week 7 and the Lions in Week 12, so there's ample opportunity to do just that.

St. Louis 41, Detroit 34: This was my upset special, and it nearly went my way. I'm trying to get worked up over this, but it's just not happening. Good gravy: St. Louis is 3-1 and tied with Seattle for the division lead. The STL should enjoy it while it lasts.

New England 38, Cincinnati 13: Marvin Lewis is a great coach, and he's worked a near-miracle in Cincinnati. But he's just the latest coach to discover that no one knows his shit like Bill Belichick knows his shit. Everyone in The Writers Picks chose the Bengals to win this week because everyone forgot that Belichick and the Patriots always find a way to win when they have to -- except when their opponent is the Denver Broncos. Why did we forget it this week? Because last week's opponent was the Denver Broncos. When did you know this game was over? Down and Distance has long maintained that whenever an offense-oriented team scores a field goal on the opening drive of the game, that team is probably going to lose. If you get deep enough into enemy territory to kick the field goal, you should be able to score a touchdown. It's the first drive of the game; the defense hasn't had time to adjust. It's now or never! If you can't score a TD now, you probably won't later. And sure enough, that's what happened to Cincinnati on Sunday: Their opening drive fizzled out on the New England 22, and the Patriots would up rolling right over them. Offense-oriented teams need to jump out to the early lead. There's a reason Peyton Manning isn't known for his fourth-quarter comebacks.

Washington 36, Jacksonville 30: A solid win for the Redskins over a Jaguars team that must be feeling punch-drunk after consecutive games against the Cowboys (9-7 in 2005), Steelers (Super Bowl champs), Colts (14-2 and the No. 1 AFC seed) and Redskins (10-6 and a playoff team). Serves Jacksonville right after skating to a "12-4" record last year. Again, great win for the Redskins, though I wouldn't go so far as to say it's the "biggest Redskins win in five years." I don't have to. Everybody else in town is saying it. Pooh.

THIS WEEK: 8-6
SEASON: 37-23
(61.7%)
(2005 through Week 3: 38-22)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 4
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team's ranked? Blame science. (Key: WK4 = This week's ranking. WK3 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score.)
WK4WK3TEAMPOWWK4WK3TEAMPOW
13 Bears 100.001718Redskins45.98
21 Chargers 95.731815 Vikings 43.55
32 Ravens 85.82196 Seahawks 42.14
49 Cowboys 72.422020Steelers 39.59
5T27Chiefs 70.742121Giants 39.15
612Falcons 67.292223Panthers 37.34
78 Eagles 66.222326Browns 33.38
85 Saints 61.712425Dolphins 29.95
97 Colts 59.972519Cardinals29.33
1017Patriots59.4626T27Lions 23.29
1111Broncos 51.8327T27Texans 20.91
124 Bengals 51.502824Packers 20.80
1314Rams 50.51292249ers 19.38
1416Bills 48.383031Bucs 5.96
1513Jets 47.433130Titans 4.59
1610Jaguars 46.803232Raiders 0.00

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Our annual Houston hit-and-run!

And yet they still leave a bad taste in your mouth

In the hair-raising underground classic You Are Going to Prison, Jim Hogshire discusses the grim reality of life as a prison "punk":
"Once this transformation (to punk) has taken place, there is no turning back. Even a man who fought with all his might and even suffered serious injury ... is still suspect. ... He has lost at least some, if not all, of his manhood, he's slid to the bottom of the heap and will stay there. The possibility of coming back is almost nonexistent -- although it is possible.

"It would require a concerted and sustained fight with the whole fuckin' population, and the guards, to overcome. Physically overcoming it is the only way. This means a man may have to fight day after day for months or years, and probably have to kill someone or be killed himself. ...

"As awful as life is for the punk, some guys choose to accept it as a way of surviving -- literally surviving, continuing to live -- until their sentence is finished. ... It is an awful choice. But it's the only choice some guys get. And the choice is final."
All you have to do is replace the word "punk" with "member of the Houston Texans" in the above passage, and you get a sense of how far the NFL's newest franchise has managed to slide into the sewer in its five short years of existence. The Texans came into the league in 2002 with big talk and big expectations. Today they're a travesty, an abomination, a joke. They're worse than detestable -- punchless and pointless. It's tempting to also call the team worthless except that owner Bob McNair paid the league a record $700 million franchise fee for the right to be punked by his fellow owners and mocked by everyone else.

But that's getting ahead of ourselves.

I spent last Sunday afternoon the way I spend every Sunday afternoon from September to January: on the couch with the Sunday Ticket in full effect. As a cosmopolitan Washington "man about town," it's important for me to be up to speed on the performance of the local club, so I flipped over to the Redskins game several times over the course of the day. Washington was playing Houston, giving me my first extended look at the 2006 Texans.

What a disgrace.

In every aspect of the game, the Texans are just awful. Their offense is toothless, their defense is useless, their special teams are irrelevant. After losing to the Redskins on Sunday by the deceptively close score of 31-15, cornerback Dunta Robinson assessed the team's direction. "That's disgusting," Robinson said. "What else can go wrong? If we don't play better, we're going to be the laughingstock of the NFL again." Going to be a laughingstock? That's what passes for optimism in the Houston locker room. Shit, in Houston these days, that's close to boasting.

The problem is not simply that the Texans are awful. Every year has its bad teams, and every team has its bad years. And the problem is not that the Texans have been bad for an extended time. That happens in sports. No, the problem is that the Texans are awful in so many ways. Losers on the field, stooges and stumblebums in the front office, suckers and marks in the stands. Asinine from top to bottom. They are the worst kind of losers.

Some losers are lovable. The expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers of 1976-77 lost their first 26 games, 11 of them by shutout. Their play was as ugly as their Creamsicle orange uniforms. And yet, in their seamless ineptitude, they were endearing, almost cuddly. Even their coach seemed to be in on the joke. The 1-15 New Orleans Ain'ts of 1980 famously inspired their fans to come to the games with paper bags on their heads -- but at least they came to the games.

Some losers are pitiable -- so pathetic that you can't help but feel sorry for them. You might even choose to root for them in a patronizing sort of way. The 2004 San Francisco 49ers (2-14) fall into this category, as do the Detroit Lions of the Matt Millen era (21-61). The 2001 Carolina Panthers (1-15) count, too. Pitiable teams like these are often full of nice guys for whom all the hard work in the world just isn't going to make much of a difference. Other times they're full of lollygaggers, head cases and jakes who get exactly what they deserve. (In the case of the Lions, all of the above, and more!)

Some losers are chronic charity cases. They spend year after year in the cellar without getting so much as a sniff of playoff contention ... but they never get much out of the high draft position that comes with their wretchedness, either. The Bengals spent 15 years as just such a team. The Cardinals have fit this bill for 30 of the last 31 years.

And some losers are just contemptible. Like the prison punk, they are helpless at the bottom of the heap. The strong prey upon them, abuse them, break them -- and despise them for their own weakness. This is where you find the Houston Texans.

LOSERS: A TAXONOMY
Type of NFL loserBaseball equivalent
Lovable Chicago Cubs
Pitiable Kansas City Royals
Chronic Milwaukee Brewers
ContemptibleTampa Bay Devil Rays

The history of the Texans is in many ways a sweeping epic of the execrable, a story of shame and degradation that traces back to the team's genesis in the franchise free agency period of the mid-1990s. The Houston Texans, simply put, were born of civic gutlessness and community hypocrisy. And, boy, does it show.

The Houston Oilers had been a charter member of the American Football League in 1960 and had been playing in the once-state-of-the-art Astrodome since 1965. A lot of time passed, however, and Oilers owner Bud Adams eventually declared that the Eighth Wonder of the World had become a hellhole and that if he didn't get a new football-only stadium he would move the team to Tennessee and take up banjo and force people to watch Kerry Collins try to throw the ball from his side of over-the-hill. In an admirable but ultimately hollow assertion of principle, Houston told Adams to say hello to everyone in Nashville. Thus were born the Tennessee Oilers.

Houstonians patted themselves on the back awhile and crowed about drawing the line at building a new football stadium when the city had so many other pressing needs. Then they set about building a new $350 million football stadium despite the city's so many other pressing needs. And what a beauty it is, too. People love to make fun of the "cookie-cutter" multipurpose stadiums of the 1970s. But hasn't the league just traded one set of characterless clones for another? Are airtight, charmless, gold-plated turds like Reliant Stadium, the Edward Jones Dome and Ford Field really an improvement? Well, they have something like twice as many bathrooms, and seafood salad at the concession stands, plus baby-changing stations, so ... yeah, perhaps so.

Houston isn't the first city that refused to build a stadium, then lost its football team, then turned around and built a new stadium after all to attract a new team. Baltimore did it, as did St, Louis. Those cities, however, at least waited a few years to towel themselves off, whereas Houston pretty much started pouring concrete as soon as Adams got the vans loaded up.

(In case you're wondering: The situation in Cleveland was considerably different. Starting in the 1970s, Browns owner Art Modell argued that if the city would essentially give him control of Cleveland Stadium, he would use the revenue to improve the facility and would never ask for a new one. The city went ahead and handed over the keys. Modell's subsequent mismanagement of the stadium landed him so deep in debt that even a new stadium wouldn't have gotten him out of the hole. Baltimore essentially promised to make that debt go away. That's why he moved the team. The fitting postscript to the tale was that even the Baltimore bailout couldn't save Modell from his own incompetence, and he wound up having to sell the Ravens anyway. Modell is rightly despised in Cleveland as a thief and a whore. He's also a hypocrite, having been the loudest, most public and most dogged critic of Al Davis' attempts to move the Raiders.)

St. Louis and Baltimore also built their new stadiums to lure existing franchises to town. Both cities had been forced to bend over for the league during the expansion-application process in the 1990s, only to see teams awarded to the booming North/South Carolina market and to ... the fifth-largest metro area in Florida (which is really working out well). They learned from that experience that expansion is a screw job, so they went out and stole teams from other cities just as theirs had been stolen in the 1980s. And it paid off: The St. Louis Rams and Baltimore Ravens both won the Super Bowl within five years of relocating. And the Rams did it by beating Bud Adams' Tennessee Titans.

Houston went the other route and applied for an expansion team. At the time, the league had 31 teams, and everyone knew that the next new franchise would be the last added for some time. The NFL made it clear that it really, really, really wanted that franchise to be in Los Angeles, but the people of L.A. showed little interest in laying out the necessary billion dollars for a brand new facility when the area already had at least three stadiums that could do the job (though they're tragically short of baby-changing stations). In October 1999, the league awarded the team to Houston and owner Bob McNair. Cost: $700 million, significantly higher than the $530 million charged to the owners of the reborn Browns franchise right around the same time. The NFL had, of course, promised the city of Cleveland after Art Modell skipped town that it would receive a new franchise, so that limited the pool of bidders. In the case of Houston, however, the league used the phony competition with Los Angeles to goose the price and get the city nice and lubed up.

Once the franchise was awarded, McNair and company set about acquiring the accoutrements of an NFL club: nickname, colors, logo, uniforms and all that. Oh yeah, and players. Predictably, it didn't get anything right:

Nickname: Texas pro sports franchises have nicknames that speak to aspects of the state's identity. The Texas Rangers, Dallas Cowboys, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks all evoke the Old West. The Houston Astros and Houston Rockets are fitting names in the home of Mission Control (though the Rockets originated in San Diego). And the Oilers referenced the state's signature industry, petroleum. So in the spirit of Davy Crockett and Sam Houston, the new franchise held focus groups to come up with a name, and the team put forth five possibilities: Stallions (Old West), Bobcats (owner's name; see Charlotte's new NBA team), Apollos (space program), Wildcatters (oil industry) and Texans (inoffensive, marketing-driven cop-out). Saddled with a name devoid of any imagery, imagination or daring, is it any wonder that the players sleepwalk through their games?

Colors: Red, white and blue are the kick-assingest colors in world history. But there's a huge difference between this version of the color scheme, with its vibrant red and deep blue, and this one, which looks like it accidentally went into the wash with a brand new black sweatshirt. Drab and uninspired, these are the colors of a gas station attendant. And, you know, "Pump Jockeys" wouldn't have been a half-bad name for the team. At least it's oil-related.

Logo: This thing is supposed to be a ... a codpiece, right? No, a breastplate. A lobster claw? Some newly discovered species of pubic lice? What? A cow's head? Really? What's with the Paul Stanley makeup?

Uniforms: The name offers no inspiration, the colors are lifeless, the logo is dumb. Put them all together, and you get a uniform that looks like something you'd see on a fake team in a shitty football movie. To top it all off, the Texans wear white jerseys at home. Because if you're going to surrender without a fight, you'd better dress the part.

Mascot: For the fuzzy face of a $700 million franchise, Toro looks terribly cheap. Secondhand, even. "Run you stupid f------ blue bull! Run!"

And then there are the players. The most amazing thing when you analyze the Houston franchise is that for all the putrescence that defines this team and clings to it in a foul green cloud, the Texans players are just not that bad. No, none of these guys is headed to the Hall of Fame, but they aren't supreme stumblebums, either. There is talent, but it cannot and will not shine. There is potential, but it cannot and will not develop.

The one thing that great teams have in common is that they are all greater than the sum of their parts. The recent history of the New England Patriots provides a perfect example. Bill Belichick took a few high draft picks, some low picks, a mess of undrafted free agents and assorted cast-offs and spare parts from other teams and assembled a legitimate dynasty out of them. The Pittsburgh Steelers of the 1970s won four Super Bowls with a cocktail of bonus babies, tough little bastards and tough little bonus bastards (plus an honest-to-God war hero, a soldier, and I don't mean that in the Kellen Winslow sense).

Most NFL teams, of course, add up to exactly the sum of their parts. No rounding necessary. The Minnesota Vikings spring to mind. Since Bud Grant retired (the first time), the Vikings have never been any better or any worse than their record indicated. Remember when they went 15-1 in 1998? They were really, really good -- but not perfect. The 3-13 Les Steckel Experience of 1984? Every bid as bad as the record.

And the truly bad teams, the bottom-feeders, the scummiest of the scummy, the Texans and their ilk, fall far short of the sum of their parts. People asked last year: How can the Oakland Raiders be so bad when they have so much talent? Because that's what it means to be bad: Talent becomes irrelevant. So it is with the Texans. Is David Carr the worst quarterback in NFL history? Oh, no, not by a long shot. He's not the worst quarterback in the league this year, or the worst starting quarterback in the league this year. (Though I wonder who that could be?) How about No. 1 overall draft pick Mario Williams? The guy was a wrecking crew at North Carolina State, but now he just looks sad and lost. Of course he does! He's wearing a Texans uniform. Marco Polo would get lost in a Texans uniform. Should the Texans have picked Reggie Bush in the draft -- especially now that Domanick Davis is out for the year? Does it matter? In a Texans uniform, everyone's on injured reserve; they just don't know it yet. Remember, the first player the team ever picked -- offensive lineman Tony Boselli, in the 2002 expansion draft -- retired without playing a down in "red," white and "blue." Wideout and kick returner Jermaine Lewis was taken in the same draft and promptly fell off the face of the Earth.

(OK, to be fair, there's one Texans move I applaud wholeheartedly: With its 17th pick in the expansion draft, Houston plucked quarterback Danny Wuerffel off the Bears roster despite having no plans, or desire, to play him. The Texans figured that foolish new Washington Redkins coach Steve Spurrier was going to want Wuerffel's familiar face around and would be willing to trade something -- anything! -- to get him. This proved to be the case. Houston didn't get anything of note out of the trade, but it was still a pretty crafty move. Texans fans are still waiting for the next one.)

The guys the Texans sign as free agents or trade for often have done well in other towns on other teams, and then they come to Houston and ... disappear. Phillip Buchanon's career got off to a promising start in Oakland, then: Poof! Traded to Houston. Ron Dayne had finally worked his way up to something in Denver, then: Bang! Suddenly he's in Houston. Seth Payne. N.D. Kalu. Eric Moulds. Jeb Putzier. Dexter McCleon. These are guys we've heard of. Pro Bowlers, some of them. Guys who played in Super Bowls. Stars, some of them. They're living in Houston now, all of them. Getting paid to play a game they love, sure, and you have to admire them for that. They work out diligently, they go to the gym and lift weights and grunt. They do that everybody-bouncy-bouncy thing before games to get psyched up. They try hard and love their mommas.

And they lose. Over and over. Week in and week out. Not because they are bad men but because they are a bad team. Because the Texans are a bad franchise. Because the Texans are a bad idea.

The Houston players and the Houston fans must tell themselves this: It will get better. One day it will get better. It must get better. It cannot get worse.

Please, dear God, don't let it get worse.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Week 3 from the bottom of the well

Yabba-dabba don't! For the first bye week of the season, I turned in a pathetic 8-6 for my picks. If Carolina, Chicago, Baltimore and Miami had not all hit field goals at the final gun, I'd have gone 4-10. Then again, if Kurt Warner could have just held onto the ball with his big damn Hamburger Helper hands, I could've been 9-7. Of course, if Marc Bulger could have just held onto the ball with his big damn Hamburger Helper hands, I'd be 8-6 again. Anyway, I once again proved that I am next to useless in picking big divisional games: 1-3 this weekend in games in which first place was at stake.

So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.

CORRECT PICKS
Carolina 26, Tampa Bay 24: Well, crud. First I say nice stuff about Chris Simms right before the season starts, then I take it all back when he pollutes the league in the first two weeks, then he nearly dies out there against the Panthers. Makes you wonder what the hell Jon Gruden was thinking when he not only put the clearly injured Simms back into the game in the fourth quarter, but also called a bootleg that got the quarterback pounded into the turf. If you're like me, you're still waiting for Steve Young to say whether he still thinks Simms is a candy-ass mama's boy like he said last year.

Chicago 19, Minnesota 16: Vikings coach Brad Childress' strategy is becoming clear: Make every one of his team's games so fucking boring that no one can stand to watch them, let alone scout his team. Sorry, Minnesota. If you live by the freak late turnover, you die by the freak late turnover. And Chicago, wipe that smile off your strangely pasty face.

Green Bay 31, Detroit 24: There are worse teams than the Packers.

Washington 31, Houston 15: Turnaround fever has of course gripped Washington, as it always does whenever the Redskins put up their first win. (Remember the 2001 season? After starting 0-5, the 'Skins won five in a row. After only the second of those wins, with the team just 2-5, a caller to WTEM asked: "What's it gonna take for this team to make the playoffs?") People, people, before we start casting Mark Brunell's bust for Canton, remember that it's the Texans.

Miami 13, Tennessee 10: This was the only game this week in which I didn't see a single down. Why would you want to? Miami is in deep, deep trouble, and that starts with a T and that rhymes with G and that stands for, "Gee, I didn't think Miami would suck this bad, and yet they do." Why is Kerry Collins still starting for the Titans?

Baltimore 15, Cleveland 14: Holy cow. Teams in the rear-view mirror are even worse than they appear. After smoking Tampa Bay and Oakland by a combined 55-6, the Ravens rolled into Cleveland seemingly guaranteed of another dominating victory over another girls JV squad. Then they went poo in their pants. Fortunately for them, in Cleveland everyone has a dirty brown towel to help you wipe.

Seattle 42, New York Giants 30: Once again, Eli Manning stages one of his famous comebacks by running back interceptions for touchdowns and getting sloppy play from the opposing quarterback and bizarre strategy from the opposing coach. If there's anything we can learn from the past two weeks, it's that against the Giants, there's no such thing as "running up the score" because Manning is such a "great fourth-quarter quarterback."

Philadelphia 38, San Francisco 24: Last year when these two teams met, the Eagles won 42-3. This year, at least San Francisco was able to get in a couple glancing blows while it was getting its head kicked in.

INCORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati 28, Pittsburgh 20: It wouldn't be nice to point out that for the second straight week, Ben Roethlisberger killed his team with a late interception. An early interception, too. But there it is. How's this for an optical illusion: Charlie Batch, 1-0; Roethlisberger, 0-2.

Indianapolis 21, Jacksonville 14: Sigh. I guess I'm just never going to be right about the Colts. You know they're never going to actually win the "big game." You're just never sure which game is going to be the "big" one they're going to lie down for. Last Monday night, Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio urged his team to "leave it all out on the field" when they played the Steelers. It seems they forgot to retrieve their special teams when they left Pittsburgh.

New York Jets 28, Buffalo 20: A graphic on Sunday Night Football told me that this week the Jets became the first team to win a game in which their opponent (the Bills) had a 300-yard passer (J.P. Losman) and a 150-yard rusher (Willis McGahee). It just goes to show you, you can rack up an awful lot of yards just going in circles. Even if you don't fumble a couple times while you're at it.

St. Louis 16, Arizona 14: If you're looking for an explanation from me, I don't have one. These are two NFC West teams. What's worse than fumbling the ball away late in the game when you're up by 2? Fumbling the ball away in field-goal range late in the game when you're down by 2!

Denver 17, New England 7: The Patriots finally put it all together! Week 1: Bad first half, good second half, win. Week 2: Good first half, bad second half, win. Week 3: Bad first half, bad second half, loss. Denver always seems to get the best of New England, but Sunday night the Patriots were sluggish from the coin toss. It's like they really laid it on at the pregame taco bar or somthing. (Hey, maybe the Pats finally hate their coach over the Deion Branch thing!) Whatever the case, Jake Plummer easily shrugged the monkey off his back for at least one more week. Then he kept his helmet on all through the postgame interview with NBC. That boy ain't right.

New Orleans 23, Atlanta 3: OK, I thought we'd established that the Falcons were going to win this year by having Michael Vick run whenever the opportunity presented itself? That he would throw only when he needed to? That he would feed Warrick Dunn? Midway through the fourth quarter, Vick had run the ball four times and thrown it 26 times. (Dunn had run it 12 times.) Of those 26 passes, eight were complete and the rest fell anywhere from 5 to 25 feet from their intended receivers. Atlanta fell behind 14-0 early, but they had the whole game to make up those two touchdowns. Jeremy Shockey would tell you what he thinks about that kind of coaching. Sure, the Saints were high on emotion. And sure, they're good enough to have won this game regardless, but Atlanta's obsession with teaching us whatever the week's lesson about Vick was essentially handed the game over.

THIS WEEK: 8-6
SEASON: 29-17
(63.0%)
(2005 through Week 3: 27-19)



KA-POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 3
Down and Distance's exclusive KA-POWER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KA-POWER RANKINGS system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team's ranked? It's not my fault they suck. (Key: WK3 = This week's ranking. WK2 = last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score.) NOTE: Due to a data error, the Eagles were ranked No. 21 last week when they should have been No. 14. "WK2" rankings below reflect the corrected data.
WK3WK2TEAMPOWWK3WK2TEAMPOW
11 Chargers 100.001712Patriots 49.15
22 Ravens 84.191823Redskins 47.67
33 Bears 83.781920Cardinals46.72
45 Bengals 67.602015Steelers 46.12
511Saints 66.292117Giants 45.83
67 Seahawks 63.4222T1849ers 44.21
78 Colts 62.662324Panthers 40.92
814Eagles 58.852428Packers 38.42
910Cowboys 57.712525Dolphins 37.38
106 Jaguars 56.332622Browns 37.16
1121Broncos 54.39T2730Lions 29.12
124 Falcons 54.26T2726Texans 29.12
13T18Jets 53.64T2727Chiefs 29.12
1416Rams 51.813029Titans 25.33
1513Vikings 51.643132Bucs 23.40
169 Bills 49.773231Raiders 0.00

Friday, September 22, 2006

Week 3 picks

The picks for Week 3 have been posted over at Breakaway Beach. It's an interesting week, with what appears to be a lot of good games, though it's still just Week 3, so maybe they aren't good games at all. Funny how that works. Here's what I'm thinking:

WinnerLoserBut why?
Panthers BUCS Two teams, four games, 22 total points -- and Carolina has 19 of them.
Bears VIKINGS Chicago has blown out two 0-2 teams. Minnesota has squeaked out victories over two 0-2 teams.
STEELERS Bengals Pittsburgh's angry. Cincinnati's beat up. Game's in Pennsylvania.
Packers LIONS Odds are against a 0-0 tie, so go with the team that has shown any ability to move the ball, regardless of who they moved it against.
Jaguars COLTS Indianapolis is so over. The collapse begins Sunday.
BILLS Jets Buffalo may not be "for real," but their near-victory over New England was more convincing than the Jets'.
DOLPHINS Titans Miami's backs are against the wall. And yet Culpepper might still get hit from behind.
Redskins TEXANS Washington is getting worse every week, but they're not this bad. Yet. I think.
Ravens BROWNS The Ravens' offense is still sputtering. It won't matter.
SEAHAWKS Giants New York has lost a game it should have won and won a game it should have lost. Their luck, or whatever it is, will run out, and this week they'll lose a game they should have lost.
Eagles 49ERS San Francisco has improved, but not enough to beat a pissed-off Philadelphia team.
CARDINALS Rams Believe it or not, home-field advantage makes the difference for Arizona.
PATRIOTS Broncos Denver has had New England's number for the past few years. But they haven't been so good with numbers lately.
Falcons SAINTS Atlanta has finally figured out what to do with Michael Vick. It only took six years.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Week 2 in a can

This weekend I was saddened to see that the Fox announcing team of Sam Rosen and Bill Maas -- my nominee for the worst duo on TV two years running -- had been split up. However, I was absolutely delighted to discover that the mad scientists at Non-Stop Fox had seized on this opportunity to assemble an even worse pairing: Maas and Steve Byrnes. Listening to these two call Sunday's Carolina-Minnesota game was like listening to sports radio at the nursing home. Maas, as usual, played the role of your ignorant but overbearing neighbor with short thumbs, leading every sentence with "There's no doubt in my mind that ..." or "Everyone in the NFL knows ..." Byrnes, usually the trackside reporter for Fox's NASCAR coverage, was the rat-voiced host with material skimmed off Joe Buck's reject pile. If you live in one of the markets at the bottom of the NFC ladder, pay attention the next Sunday Fox has a seven- or eight-game package. Your afternoon might be spent at the mercy of the Nobody (Byrnes) and the Know-Nothing (Maas).

Having calibrated the instruments after the Week 1 shakedown cruise, my record in the picks improved from a middling 9-7 to a could-have-been worse 12-4. If Ben Roethlisberger had done something rather than just sit around on his fat appendix, I could have been 13-3.

CORRECT PICKS:
Atlanta 14, Tampa Bay 3: What could be worse than having Atlanta kicker Michael Koenen (4 missed field goals Sunday) on your fantasy team? Having Tampa Bay quarterback Chris Simms (0 TDs, 3 interceptions in each of his first two games) on your fantasy team. And what could be better than having Warrick Dunn (21 rushes, 134 yards) as your fantasy running back? Having Michael Vick (14 rushes, 127 yards, 1 TD) as your fantasy running back. Because God help you if you have him as your quarterback. Hey, how 'bout them Falcons? They've outscored two division rivals, the Panthers and Bucs, by a total of 34-9 in the first two weeks of the season. If the Panthers or Bucs ever get it together and beat ... well, anyone this year, Atlanta's 2-0 record will be looking My-T-Fine.

Minnesota 16, Carolina 13 (OT): Ryan Longwell now has as many touchdown passes as Brad Johnson this season. Every year, some team starts out with a couple close wins and gains a reputation as a gritty contender when in fact it was just lucky. In 2004, it was the Lions. In 2005, the Falcons. And in 2006, the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota's narrow victory over the Panthers, who looked terrible against a control sample (Atlanta) in Week 1, followed its narrow win against the Redskins, who looked worse than terrible against a control sample (Dallas) in Week 2. Lucky for the Vikings, they have four games still to come against the Lions and Packers. They're halfway to wildcard weekend already!

Baltimore 28, Oakland 6: It says here that the last time the Ravens started the season 2-0 was in 2000, when they won the Super Bowl. This perhaps says more about the 2001-05 Ravens than the '06 Ravens. Regardless, what's more impressive than the Ravens holding their first two opponents to a total of 6 points? How about the Ravens scoring 27 and 28 points two weeks in a row. Buccaneers fans: If Oakland, the worst team in the NFL, loses to Baltimore 28-6, what does it say about your team?

Indianapolis 43, Houston 24: Nothing builds self-esteem like a game against the Houston Texans. Looking to prove your offense can be high-powered even without T.O.? Play the Texans! Embarrassed about playing tight against your own brother on national TV? Play the Texans! Afraid of facing Reggie Bush? Play the Texans! Fantasy players should consider adding David Carr to their rosters. If any QB is guaranteed to get plenty of snaps against third-stringers playing prevent defense, it would be Carr. Sunday, he threw for 146 yards and three touchdowns in the fourth quarter after Indy had built a 30-3 lead.

New Orleans 34, Green Bay 27: After suffering the first shutout of his career against the Bears last week, Brett Favre rebounded with 340 yards and 3 touchdowns. And here's what proved he was back to his old self: Down just 14-13 in the third quarter, Favre lofted a lazy pop fly into the end zone. Saints DB Omar Stoutmire drifted under it and recorded the out. Suddenly the New Orleans Saints are 2-0, and you know what that means: 6-8 from here on out.

Cincinnati 34, Cleveland 17: For the Bengals, so far, so good. For the Browns, so many games, so little hope.

Chicago 34, Detroit 7: The Lions can make just about any quarterback look great, so long as he's not wearing Honolulu blue and silver. That's not to say Rex Grossman isn't a great quarterback. He's been Roman Fucking Gabriel these first two weeks. But we're still dealing with a small sample size for Grossman, and Green Bay and Detroit appear to be way out on the shitty end of the bell curve.

Seattle 21, Arizona 10: I was about to make a snide comment about Edgerrin James' 3.6-yards-per-carry average on Sunday, but then I got a load of Shaun Alexander's 3.4-yards-per-carry average. And that was against the Cardinals. Matt Hasselbeck, lauded in this space not two weeks ago as the best quarterback in the NFC, put up Tim Hasselbeck-like numbers for the second week in a row: 12-of-27 for 221 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions. Blame Delilah.

New England 27, New York Jets 24: Bill Belichick and Andy Reid both set out to lose big leads Sunday. Reid's a closer.

San Diego 40, Tennessee 7: The Vince Young era in Tennessee began not a moment too soon, but 117 minutes too late. Young led the first scoring drive of his career Sunday, throwing a touchdown pass with 3 minutes left to cut San Diego's lead to 33-7. The Chargers then tacked on another touchdown -- with their second-stringers, who were just trying to run out the clock. Tennessee plays at Miami next Sunday. San Diego enjoys its third consecutive bye week.

Denver 9, Kansas City 6 (OT): Any Bronco fan who tells you he isn't panicking is lying.

San Francisco 20, St. Louis 13: If the 49ers could play the Rams four times a year, they could rebuild in half the time. The pregame line had St. Louis favored by a field goal, which was fitting, because with Scott Linehan as their coach, the Rams will be scoring a lot of field goals. When Linehan gets in the red zone, he's like a freshman at prom, all elbows and awkwardness. The Niners had problems of their own in the red zone Sunday -- two field goals and a turnover on three trips -- but got around them by scoring two TDs from outside the Rams' 20. Brilliant!

INCORRECT PICKS:
Philadelphia 30, New York Giants 24 (OT): Once again, Eli Manning stumbles through three quarters, has the game handed to him by his opponent in the fourth and comes away hailed as some kind of cardiac kid. I'm as sick of that act as I am of Tom Coughlin's "disciplinarian" bit -- though I suspect the Giants will take Manning's charade over Couchlin's any day of the week.

Buffalo 16, Miami 6: You know, maybe the Bills are good after all. You know, maybe the Dolphins aren't good after all.

Dallas 27, Washington 10: The playbook that Al Saunders famously brought to the Redskins is 700 pages long. Those 700 pages produced 3 Washington points Sunday night. Meanwhile, busted coverage by the Dallas special teams produced 7 Washington points. Imagine what would have happened if Washington had only the second-highest-paid offensive coordinator in the NFL. The Cowboys' victory gives their quarterback one more week to believe the crowd is chanting "Drew" rather than ...

Jacksonville 9, Pittsburgh 0: Last year against the Jaguars, Tommy Maddox cost the Steelers the game when he threw a late interception to Rashean Mathis. Never to be outdone, Ben Roethlisberger threw two late interceptions to Mathis. Roethlisberger played like ... well, like a guy who crashed his motorcycle, burst his appendix and pulled his hamstring. And who hadn't practiced since February. On the other side of the ball, last year I wondered whether and when a team would beat the Steelers by exploiting the free-lancing tendencies of Pittsburgh defenders, particularly Troy Polamalu. Answers: "Yes," and "Week 2 of 2006."

THIS WEEK: 12-4
SEASON: 21-11
(65.6%)
(2005 through Week 2: 18-14)



KAPOW-ER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 2
Down and Distance's exclusive KAPOW-ER RANKINGS are back for their second year. The product of a simple formula, the rankings have predicted 10 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners. Further, 14 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners finished the regular season No. 1 or No. 2 in the KAPOW-ER system. Unlike with other, lesser rating systems, no opinion is involved in formulating these rankings. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest. Don't like where your team is ranked? Sheesh, it's only Week 2. (Key: WK2 = This week's ranking. WK1 = Last week's ranking. POW = KAPOW-ER centigrade score)
WK2WK1TEAMPOWWK2WK1TEAMPOW
1T1 Chargers100.00T1710Jets 51.58
2T1 Ravens 99.55T172049ers 51.58
3T1 Bears 98.821913Cardinals48.98
44 Falcons 86.302026Broncos 44.63
56 Bengals 72.91215 Eagles 41.38
611 Jaguars 70.692221Browns 35.94
79 Seahawks 69.752318Redskins 34.99
814 Colts 64.152429Panthers 33.12
917 Bills 59.812525Dolphins 32.86
1022Cowboys 59.232628Texans 32.06
1112Saints 59.202727Chiefs 31.67
1216Patriots58.5628T30Packers 28.92
1315Vikings 57.182923Titans 23.80
148 Steelers53.793024Lions 19.58
157 Rams 52.5631T30Raiders 3.60
1619Giants 52.1732T30Bucs 0.00