Going 7-9 for Week 2 pretty much stinks. But it could have been worse. Evidence: Svelte consummate NFL insider Peter King going 4-12. I picked Green Bay over Cleveland, too, but even I didn't think the Packers would win by 27 points. Not saying King is a fool; just pointing out the folly of thinking we can know who's good and who's bad after only one game.
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
Week 2 postmortem
Sigh. After beginning the season a strong -- and league-leading -- 11-5 in Week 1, I fell back to Earth with my Week 2 selections in The Writers' Picks. I came in at 7-9 (still good enough to make the playoffs in the NFC!). Sloppy, I know, but no sloppier than the play this weekend: Poor tackling. Players caught on camera smiling after costly penalties. The Ravens' offense. The 49ers' defense. The Vikings' offense, defense, special teams and coaching. And 10 teams had nine or more penalties, the unofficial definition of "way too many": Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Washington, New England, Baltimore, Miami, Seattle, Kansas City and the Giants.
On to what I got right, what I got wrong and why:
CORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati over Minnesota: "The game wasn't at close as the score indicated." You tend to hear that when the final score is more like 24-10, and the loser's touchdown came in the last six minutes. But there's no other way to describe the Bengals' 37-8 humiliation of the Vikings. The score could easily have been 58-0: Carson Palmer overthrew Chad Johnson by inches in the end zone twice and also threw a pick in the end zone. Cincinnati had an astounding 17 penalties, which kept the game from getting even farther out of hand. As in Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay, nothing Minnesota did was working. Nothing came close to working. The Vikings have had 24 possessions this year; 12 of them -- half -- have ended in turnovers. Daunte Culpepper has eight interceptions in two games. He looked completely lost Sunday, and it's clear why. Without Randy Moss drawing double coverage, defenses have a free guy to do with what they please. Culpepper is facing coverages and fronts that he's never seen before and isn't prepared for. At the same time, on defense, Palmer exposed the Vikings' secondary on the second play of the game and just kept doing it. Are you picking up what I'm laying down? Lemme spell it out: Mike Tice, who's survived this long only because Red McCombs could pay him peanuts, better sharpen his pencil and get cracking on the resume. Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, Marvin Lewis will probably be screaming in Palmer's face this week. Palmer's end zone interception was his second in two games. One of these days (next Sunday), they'll be playing a team (Bears) much closer, and some DB (Mike Brown) will take one of those back 100 yards. Just saying.
Pittsburgh over Houston: The wonder, really, is that anybody would have picked the Texans in this game. No, I can't and won't say whether Pittsburgh will be as good this year as in 2004, but come on: It was Houston! Four years into the life of the franchise, and the team is still getting its ass handed to it weekly (and fumbling the exchange). Monday, offensive coordinator Chris Palmer lost his job. Yes, that Chris Palmer. Tim Couch is the lucky one: Palmer's schemes only destroyed his career. David Carr is being beaten within an inch of his life. No rest for Carr, however: Palmer's replacement is Joe Pendry, who has spent the past three years keeping the turnstiles greased as the Texans' offensive line coach. Fun fact: Dom Capers fired Pendry as O-coordinator in Carolina. Heads up, Dave.
Indianapolis over Jacksonville: Neither the score of the game nor its bruising nature was a surprise. This is what the Jags and Colts do. But I wonder when people are going to start talking about the switch from Astroturf to FieldTurf at the RCA Dome. Easier on the joints, harder on the 40 times.
Tampa Bay over Buffalo: Three of the top five picks in the draft were running backs. Only one reported to camp on time. In other news, Cadillac Williams has 276 yards and a 5.4 average; Ronnie Brown has 92 (2.7 avg.); and Cedric Benson, 59 (3.1). This game wasn't as hard to pick as it seemed to some. The Bills won handily last week, but they were playing Houston, and they still couldn't move the ball. This game featured the penalty of the week: Michael Clayton flagged for offensive pass interference, even though the ball wasn't even thrown his way.
Philadelphia over San Francisco: Last week, you could see the Eagles' loss to the Falcons coming from a mile away: too many distractions for Philly, too much motivation for Atlanta. Also last week, no one saw San Francisco's upset of St. Louis coming. This week, no one was going to be fooled. The Eagles were already angry over the Monday night loss; Derek Smith's trash talk about T.O. just helped them focus. When bad teams infuriate good teams, the bad teams get their teeth kicked in. Confidential to M.N. in S.F.: Going for a field goal when down by four touchdowns was a nice touch.
New York Jets over Miami: It's not so much that the Jets aren't as bad as they looked against the Chiefs. More like, the Dolphins aren't as good as they looked against the Broncos.
New York Giants over New Orleans: For all the talk about how the Saints got jobbed because the NFL was forced to make a quick decision on where to play this one, no one wants to dwell on the fact that Jim Haslett-coached teams have been far better on the road (24-16 before Monday) than at home (18-22). That said, it's going to be a long season for the Saints. The win at Carolina is already sepia-toned. Highlight of this game: Aaron Brooks and Eli Manning taking turns dropping ever-farther back to pass. Manning completed one pass that went about 15 yards forward yet gained only about three.
INCORRECT PICKS
New England over Carolina: Looking back, I can't remember why this seemed obvious to me. Everything I said last week about Philadelphia-Atlanta and Carolina-New Orleans applied double here. New England expected to win, but Carolina wanted to win. New England wanted a victory, Carolina wanted revenge. Only a fool would declare the dynasty in danger based on one lousy game, but this makes two weeks in a row the Pats came stumbling out of the tunnel. And they had 10 days to prepare for this game.
Detroit over Chicago: Two rushing TDs, one passing TD, one punt-return TD and one interception-return TD. At least no one Lions player was burned over and over. Except Joey Harrington. Who does he think he is, Daunte Culpepper? Perhaps no one wants to win the NFC North. Or maybe Chicago really is that good. We'll see. Up next: Cincinnati.
Baltimore over Tennessee: As it turns out, it wasn't Kyle Boller's fault. The Ravens' offense is utterly toothless regardless of who's calling the signals. And I don't care how good the defense is, or at least once was; it can't prevent touchdown passes when Baltimore's QB throws them. I'm sure Brian Billick is tired of hearing what Trent Dilfer is up to. Hey, speaking of which ...
Green Bay over Cleveland: I get the message. The Packers are done. Brett Favre's line from Sunday was typical of his career: 32/44, 342 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 98.9 passer rating. But he's all alone out there now. There was a time when Favre's desperate last-minute drives were game-winning, playoff-clinching. Now they produce meaningless, face-saving TDs. He's still better than a lot of QBs in the league, but he isn't among the best. It's time to plan a graceful exit, because no one wants another Jimmy Johnson-and-Dan Marino situation.
San Diego over Denver: The question of which team is "for real" has been answered: Neither.
Atlanta over Seattle: Within three games, Matt Schaub will be filling in for the injured Michael Vick in the first quarter, not the fourth. This was a toss-up, and like all my toss-ups this week, it poked me in the goddam eye. Seattle is not a top-tier team -- at least, I don't think so -- but the Seahawks didn't have to fly all the way across the country to play after a short week. So don't let it go to your watermelon head, Holmgren.
Arizona over St. Louis: There's a certain nobility in a last-minute drive that comes up just short of a game-winning touchdown. There's nothing but shame in one that ends in a false-start penalty. The Cardinals were actually favored by some, but I still viewed this as my upset special. I was half right: The Cards continue to be nothing special, and I wound up upset. The Arizona bandwagon stops here.
Oakland over Kansas City: Oakland could and should have won this game. However, the Raiders may never win another game until a) the offense understands that if you go long on every throw, opposing defenders catch on eventually; and b) the defense learns that tackling involves more than launching your body helmet-first at the ball-carrier, then waving your arms at him you sail by.
Dallas over Washington: Oh, like you saw that coming. This was my Best Bet. The Cowboys were 13-1 vs. the Redskins in the past seven years. This was a rivalry the way a hammer and a nail are rivals. And yet, ahead by 13 in the fourth quarter, Dallas' offense went feckless and its defense went witless. Pass plays on first down when all you need to do is run out the clock? Letting Santana Moss get behind the secondary not once but twice? Giving up two long TDs to the corpse of Mark Brunell? Unreal. And the worst part of it, besides seeing Joe Gibbs suffer a near-stroke on national television, is that we'll have to hear playoff talk from Redskins fans. Oh, and someone explain to me: On a night when the Cowboys were inducting Aikman, Smith and Irvin -- the core of their early-'90s dynasty -- into the ring of honor, why was the team wearing throwbacks from the early '60s? The team went a combined 13-38-3 in those outfits.
THIS WEEK: 7-9
SEASON: 18-14
POW-R-'ANKINGS AFTER WEEK 2
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet. The formula behind them, a proprietary analysis of key statistics, successfully predicted 11 of the past 15 Super Bowl winners. Unlike with other, lesser ranking systems, no opinion is involved. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest.
On to what I got right, what I got wrong and why:
CORRECT PICKS
Cincinnati over Minnesota: "The game wasn't at close as the score indicated." You tend to hear that when the final score is more like 24-10, and the loser's touchdown came in the last six minutes. But there's no other way to describe the Bengals' 37-8 humiliation of the Vikings. The score could easily have been 58-0: Carson Palmer overthrew Chad Johnson by inches in the end zone twice and also threw a pick in the end zone. Cincinnati had an astounding 17 penalties, which kept the game from getting even farther out of hand. As in Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay, nothing Minnesota did was working. Nothing came close to working. The Vikings have had 24 possessions this year; 12 of them -- half -- have ended in turnovers. Daunte Culpepper has eight interceptions in two games. He looked completely lost Sunday, and it's clear why. Without Randy Moss drawing double coverage, defenses have a free guy to do with what they please. Culpepper is facing coverages and fronts that he's never seen before and isn't prepared for. At the same time, on defense, Palmer exposed the Vikings' secondary on the second play of the game and just kept doing it. Are you picking up what I'm laying down? Lemme spell it out: Mike Tice, who's survived this long only because Red McCombs could pay him peanuts, better sharpen his pencil and get cracking on the resume. Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, Marvin Lewis will probably be screaming in Palmer's face this week. Palmer's end zone interception was his second in two games. One of these days (next Sunday), they'll be playing a team (Bears) much closer, and some DB (Mike Brown) will take one of those back 100 yards. Just saying.
Pittsburgh over Houston: The wonder, really, is that anybody would have picked the Texans in this game. No, I can't and won't say whether Pittsburgh will be as good this year as in 2004, but come on: It was Houston! Four years into the life of the franchise, and the team is still getting its ass handed to it weekly (and fumbling the exchange). Monday, offensive coordinator Chris Palmer lost his job. Yes, that Chris Palmer. Tim Couch is the lucky one: Palmer's schemes only destroyed his career. David Carr is being beaten within an inch of his life. No rest for Carr, however: Palmer's replacement is Joe Pendry, who has spent the past three years keeping the turnstiles greased as the Texans' offensive line coach. Fun fact: Dom Capers fired Pendry as O-coordinator in Carolina. Heads up, Dave.
Indianapolis over Jacksonville: Neither the score of the game nor its bruising nature was a surprise. This is what the Jags and Colts do. But I wonder when people are going to start talking about the switch from Astroturf to FieldTurf at the RCA Dome. Easier on the joints, harder on the 40 times.
Tampa Bay over Buffalo: Three of the top five picks in the draft were running backs. Only one reported to camp on time. In other news, Cadillac Williams has 276 yards and a 5.4 average; Ronnie Brown has 92 (2.7 avg.); and Cedric Benson, 59 (3.1). This game wasn't as hard to pick as it seemed to some. The Bills won handily last week, but they were playing Houston, and they still couldn't move the ball. This game featured the penalty of the week: Michael Clayton flagged for offensive pass interference, even though the ball wasn't even thrown his way.
Philadelphia over San Francisco: Last week, you could see the Eagles' loss to the Falcons coming from a mile away: too many distractions for Philly, too much motivation for Atlanta. Also last week, no one saw San Francisco's upset of St. Louis coming. This week, no one was going to be fooled. The Eagles were already angry over the Monday night loss; Derek Smith's trash talk about T.O. just helped them focus. When bad teams infuriate good teams, the bad teams get their teeth kicked in. Confidential to M.N. in S.F.: Going for a field goal when down by four touchdowns was a nice touch.
New York Jets over Miami: It's not so much that the Jets aren't as bad as they looked against the Chiefs. More like, the Dolphins aren't as good as they looked against the Broncos.
New York Giants over New Orleans: For all the talk about how the Saints got jobbed because the NFL was forced to make a quick decision on where to play this one, no one wants to dwell on the fact that Jim Haslett-coached teams have been far better on the road (24-16 before Monday) than at home (18-22). That said, it's going to be a long season for the Saints. The win at Carolina is already sepia-toned. Highlight of this game: Aaron Brooks and Eli Manning taking turns dropping ever-farther back to pass. Manning completed one pass that went about 15 yards forward yet gained only about three.
INCORRECT PICKS
New England over Carolina: Looking back, I can't remember why this seemed obvious to me. Everything I said last week about Philadelphia-Atlanta and Carolina-New Orleans applied double here. New England expected to win, but Carolina wanted to win. New England wanted a victory, Carolina wanted revenge. Only a fool would declare the dynasty in danger based on one lousy game, but this makes two weeks in a row the Pats came stumbling out of the tunnel. And they had 10 days to prepare for this game.
Detroit over Chicago: Two rushing TDs, one passing TD, one punt-return TD and one interception-return TD. At least no one Lions player was burned over and over. Except Joey Harrington. Who does he think he is, Daunte Culpepper? Perhaps no one wants to win the NFC North. Or maybe Chicago really is that good. We'll see. Up next: Cincinnati.
Baltimore over Tennessee: As it turns out, it wasn't Kyle Boller's fault. The Ravens' offense is utterly toothless regardless of who's calling the signals. And I don't care how good the defense is, or at least once was; it can't prevent touchdown passes when Baltimore's QB throws them. I'm sure Brian Billick is tired of hearing what Trent Dilfer is up to. Hey, speaking of which ...
Green Bay over Cleveland: I get the message. The Packers are done. Brett Favre's line from Sunday was typical of his career: 32/44, 342 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 98.9 passer rating. But he's all alone out there now. There was a time when Favre's desperate last-minute drives were game-winning, playoff-clinching. Now they produce meaningless, face-saving TDs. He's still better than a lot of QBs in the league, but he isn't among the best. It's time to plan a graceful exit, because no one wants another Jimmy Johnson-and-Dan Marino situation.
San Diego over Denver: The question of which team is "for real" has been answered: Neither.
Atlanta over Seattle: Within three games, Matt Schaub will be filling in for the injured Michael Vick in the first quarter, not the fourth. This was a toss-up, and like all my toss-ups this week, it poked me in the goddam eye. Seattle is not a top-tier team -- at least, I don't think so -- but the Seahawks didn't have to fly all the way across the country to play after a short week. So don't let it go to your watermelon head, Holmgren.
Arizona over St. Louis: There's a certain nobility in a last-minute drive that comes up just short of a game-winning touchdown. There's nothing but shame in one that ends in a false-start penalty. The Cardinals were actually favored by some, but I still viewed this as my upset special. I was half right: The Cards continue to be nothing special, and I wound up upset. The Arizona bandwagon stops here.
Oakland over Kansas City: Oakland could and should have won this game. However, the Raiders may never win another game until a) the offense understands that if you go long on every throw, opposing defenders catch on eventually; and b) the defense learns that tackling involves more than launching your body helmet-first at the ball-carrier, then waving your arms at him you sail by.
Dallas over Washington: Oh, like you saw that coming. This was my Best Bet. The Cowboys were 13-1 vs. the Redskins in the past seven years. This was a rivalry the way a hammer and a nail are rivals. And yet, ahead by 13 in the fourth quarter, Dallas' offense went feckless and its defense went witless. Pass plays on first down when all you need to do is run out the clock? Letting Santana Moss get behind the secondary not once but twice? Giving up two long TDs to the corpse of Mark Brunell? Unreal. And the worst part of it, besides seeing Joe Gibbs suffer a near-stroke on national television, is that we'll have to hear playoff talk from Redskins fans. Oh, and someone explain to me: On a night when the Cowboys were inducting Aikman, Smith and Irvin -- the core of their early-'90s dynasty -- into the ring of honor, why was the team wearing throwbacks from the early '60s? The team went a combined 13-38-3 in those outfits.
THIS WEEK: 7-9
SEASON: 18-14
POW-R-'ANKINGS AFTER WEEK 2
Down and Distance's exclusive POW-R-'ANKINGS are the most accurate assessment of team strength available on the Internet. The formula behind them, a proprietary analysis of key statistics, successfully predicted 11 of the past 15 Super Bowl winners. Unlike with other, lesser ranking systems, no opinion is involved. None. Teams are ranked on a centigrade scale, with 100 representing the NFL's strongest team and 0 its weakest.
| 1. Steelers | 100.00 | 12. Redskins | 52.89 | 23. Saints | 32.19 |
| 2. Colts | 93.13 | 13. Cowboys | 50.20 | 24. Raiders | 31.95 |
| 3. Eagles | 89.90 | 14. Rams | 49.06 | 25. Packers | 27.66 |
| 4. Bengals | 89.78 | 15. Falcons | 48.34 | 26. Broncos | 25.06 |
| 5. Bears | 89.29 | 16. Patriots | 46.99 | 27. Lions | 23.20 |
| 6. Bucs | 85.70 | 17. Bills | 45.33 | 28. Cardinals | 20.68 |
| 7. Giants | 81.52 | 18. Chargers | 40.34 | 29. 49ers | 15.92 |
| 8. Chiefs | 76.71 | 19. Seahawks | 37.36 | 30. Ravens | 5.98 |
| 9. Dolphins | 64.41 | 20. Browns | 35.71 | 31. Vikings | 5.73 |
| 10. Jaguars | 54.97 | 21. Titans | 33.64 | 32. Texans | 0.00 |
| 11.Panthers | 53.80 | 22. Jets | 32.41 |
Saturday, September 17, 2005
Programming genius
UPDATE 9/19: Yeah, oops. Sunday night's Chiefs-Raiders game was called by Mike Tirico and Sterling Sharpe, not the usual ESPN idiots. That crew got the Monday night game at the Meadowlands. Even so, bizarre programming decisions this weekend ...
CBS' No. 2 broadcast team, Dick Enberg and Dan Dierdorf, will be calling New England at Carolina, which many people believe could be a preview of Super Bowl XL.
CBS' No. 1 broadcast team, Jim Nantz and Phil Simms, will be calling Cleveland at Green Bay, two teams that lost last week by a combined score of 44-16 to opponents that have failed to make the playoffs for, respectively, the past 14 seasons and the past five seasons.
Fox's No. 2 broadcast team, Dick Stockton and Daryl Johnston, will be calling San Francisco at Philadelphia, featuring last year's NFC champion and the first appearance of Terrell Owens against his former team.
Fox's No. 1 broadcast team, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, will be calling Detroit at Chicago, featuring, well, Detroit and Chicago.
ABC's only NFL broadcast team, Al Michaels and John Madden, will be calling Washington at Dallas, which gets put on Monday night year after year for no explicable reason.
Possibly the two most compelling games of the weekend -- New York Giants vs. New Orleans and Kansas City at Oakland -- will be in the capable hands of ESPN's Mike "Would You Believe" Patrick, Paul "Let Me Just Say This" Maguire and Joe "Now Here's a Guy Who" Theismann.
CBS' No. 2 broadcast team, Dick Enberg and Dan Dierdorf, will be calling New England at Carolina, which many people believe could be a preview of Super Bowl XL.
CBS' No. 1 broadcast team, Jim Nantz and Phil Simms, will be calling Cleveland at Green Bay, two teams that lost last week by a combined score of 44-16 to opponents that have failed to make the playoffs for, respectively, the past 14 seasons and the past five seasons.
Fox's No. 2 broadcast team, Dick Stockton and Daryl Johnston, will be calling San Francisco at Philadelphia, featuring last year's NFC champion and the first appearance of Terrell Owens against his former team.
Fox's No. 1 broadcast team, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, will be calling Detroit at Chicago, featuring, well, Detroit and Chicago.
ABC's only NFL broadcast team, Al Michaels and John Madden, will be calling Washington at Dallas, which gets put on Monday night year after year for no explicable reason.
Possibly the two most compelling games of the weekend -- New York Giants vs. New Orleans and Kansas City at Oakland -- will be in the capable hands of ESPN's Mike "Would You Believe" Patrick, Paul "Let Me Just Say This" Maguire and Joe "Now Here's a Guy Who" Theismann.
Friday, September 16, 2005
Week 2 picks
My picks for Week 2 are now up at The Writers' Picks at TheMirl.com. Check 'em out, and be sure to scroll down to the bottom of the picks page for the prognosticators' standings after Week 1. Who's that tied for first place at 11-5? Why, it's my main man Down and Distance. I know that's right.
Thursday, September 15, 2005
But kickers
UPDATE 9/16: I just saw that this post is similar to some of the material in the Jets chapter of Pro Football Prospectus, the best pro football guide out there. The similarities are unintentional, but what I say still stands: The Jets were stupid.
When a team loses its opener by 20 points, when only a garbage-time TD prevents a shutout, when its starting quarterback fumbles six times, when its featured back averages less than 3 yards a carry, the fact that the kicker missed a field goal shouldn't merit much mention. Unless the team is the New York Jets.
As noted everywhere, then-Jets kicker Doug Brien missed the winning field goal -- twice -- in the closing minutes against the Steelers in last year's divisional playoffs. The team responded by throwing him off the metaphorical ledge, then going down to the metaphorical street and kicking his body under the metaphorical bus. The Jets then used their first pick in the draft -- a second-rounder -- on Ohio State kicker Mike Nugent. Sunday against the Chiefs, Nugent slipped as he planted his foot and bricked his first NFL field goal attempt.
Any other time a rookie kicker misses a 28-yard FG when his team's already down by 17, it maybe makes it into the "Notes" section of the game report in the next day's paper. (You know ... those little one-sentence items shirt-tailed onto the end of the main game story, usually under a clever heading like "Squib Kicks" or "Extra Points" or "Fair Catches" or "Torn ACLs.") But because of the Jets' hysterical reaction to Brien's breakdown, Nugent's blown figgie drew national notoriety.
Which is too bad, because Nugent doesn't deserve the opprobrium (look it up) that's bound to ensue. It isn't his fault that the Jets weren't satisfied merely with cutting Brien; they had to draft a kicker so it'd really sink in that he sucks. Nugent probably expected to get drafted -- he was the No. 1 kicker on the board -- but he also probably, and rightly, expected that he wouldn't go until the second day of the draft. Since 1982, only five kickers have been drafted in the second round or higher. Only three kickers were their team's first pick: Chip Lohmiller (Washington, Round 2, 1988), the absurd Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland, Round 1, 2000), and Nugent.
So everything Nugent does is under the microscope. And with every miss, the pressure will build, until the Jets cut him. And they will cut him, because that's what happens to most kickers. They get cut, and they move on. Brien, for example. He was a third-round pick by the 49ers in 1994. They cut him the next year. He cycled through the Saints, Colts, Buccaneers and Vikings organizations before landing in a Jets uniform and exploding all over Heinz Field. Now he's with the Bears, and that won't be his last stop. Who's kicking now for the 49ers, the team that originally drafted Brien? Why, it's Joe Nedney, who was signed as a rookie free agent by the Packers in 1995. He wasn't in Green Bay long, and he put in time with the Raiders, the Dolphins, the Cardinals, the Raiders again, the Broncos, the Panthers and the Titans before signing with San Francisco. For every team like Detroit, which has had Jason Hanson kicking since the Lions drafted him in 1992, there is a team like the Vikings, who in the same period have trotted out Fuad Reveiz, Scott Sisson, Greg Davis, Eddie Murray, Gary Anderson, Hayden Epstein, Aaron Elling, Morten Anderson and Paul Edinger.
Nugent's grim welcome to the NFL came the same weekend that two of the league's PK stalwarts kicked themselves in the teeth. David Akers went 1-for-3 on field goals in a game the Eagles lost by four points. (Those two missed FGs, by the way, were not the "difference in the game." E-mail me if you want an explanation.) Meanwhile, Matt Stover, who is in his 15th year with the Browns-cum-Ravens, honked all three of his field goal attempts. Here's what their coaches said:
"David is so consistent, he will work through this. He came back and hit one after missing two, and I am not worried about David."
-- Eagles coach Andy Reid
"Sometimes a kicker just doesn't have it."
-- Ravens coach Brian Billick
Akers wasn't a high draft choice. He wasn't drafted at all. The Panthers signed him in 1997, and he later went to the Falcons; the Eagles got him cheap as a free agent in '99. Stover was a comparative draft darling: the Giants took him in the 12th round in 1990, as the third-to-last player chosen. The 12th round doesn't exist anymore. Nor do Rounds 8-11.
Sure, Billick and Reid can afford to be sanguine about their kickers' struggles. After all, Stover was critical in getting the Ravens to the Super Bowl in 2000, and Akers has been a vital cog in the Eagles' run of excellence. But are the coaches willing to cut them a little slack because they usually deliver, or do they usually deliver because the coaches are willing to cut them a little slack?
When a team loses its opener by 20 points, when only a garbage-time TD prevents a shutout, when its starting quarterback fumbles six times, when its featured back averages less than 3 yards a carry, the fact that the kicker missed a field goal shouldn't merit much mention. Unless the team is the New York Jets.
As noted everywhere, then-Jets kicker Doug Brien missed the winning field goal -- twice -- in the closing minutes against the Steelers in last year's divisional playoffs. The team responded by throwing him off the metaphorical ledge, then going down to the metaphorical street and kicking his body under the metaphorical bus. The Jets then used their first pick in the draft -- a second-rounder -- on Ohio State kicker Mike Nugent. Sunday against the Chiefs, Nugent slipped as he planted his foot and bricked his first NFL field goal attempt.
Any other time a rookie kicker misses a 28-yard FG when his team's already down by 17, it maybe makes it into the "Notes" section of the game report in the next day's paper. (You know ... those little one-sentence items shirt-tailed onto the end of the main game story, usually under a clever heading like "Squib Kicks" or "Extra Points" or "Fair Catches" or "Torn ACLs.") But because of the Jets' hysterical reaction to Brien's breakdown, Nugent's blown figgie drew national notoriety.
Which is too bad, because Nugent doesn't deserve the opprobrium (look it up) that's bound to ensue. It isn't his fault that the Jets weren't satisfied merely with cutting Brien; they had to draft a kicker so it'd really sink in that he sucks. Nugent probably expected to get drafted -- he was the No. 1 kicker on the board -- but he also probably, and rightly, expected that he wouldn't go until the second day of the draft. Since 1982, only five kickers have been drafted in the second round or higher. Only three kickers were their team's first pick: Chip Lohmiller (Washington, Round 2, 1988), the absurd Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland, Round 1, 2000), and Nugent.
So everything Nugent does is under the microscope. And with every miss, the pressure will build, until the Jets cut him. And they will cut him, because that's what happens to most kickers. They get cut, and they move on. Brien, for example. He was a third-round pick by the 49ers in 1994. They cut him the next year. He cycled through the Saints, Colts, Buccaneers and Vikings organizations before landing in a Jets uniform and exploding all over Heinz Field. Now he's with the Bears, and that won't be his last stop. Who's kicking now for the 49ers, the team that originally drafted Brien? Why, it's Joe Nedney, who was signed as a rookie free agent by the Packers in 1995. He wasn't in Green Bay long, and he put in time with the Raiders, the Dolphins, the Cardinals, the Raiders again, the Broncos, the Panthers and the Titans before signing with San Francisco. For every team like Detroit, which has had Jason Hanson kicking since the Lions drafted him in 1992, there is a team like the Vikings, who in the same period have trotted out Fuad Reveiz, Scott Sisson, Greg Davis, Eddie Murray, Gary Anderson, Hayden Epstein, Aaron Elling, Morten Anderson and Paul Edinger.
Nugent's grim welcome to the NFL came the same weekend that two of the league's PK stalwarts kicked themselves in the teeth. David Akers went 1-for-3 on field goals in a game the Eagles lost by four points. (Those two missed FGs, by the way, were not the "difference in the game." E-mail me if you want an explanation.) Meanwhile, Matt Stover, who is in his 15th year with the Browns-cum-Ravens, honked all three of his field goal attempts. Here's what their coaches said:
"David is so consistent, he will work through this. He came back and hit one after missing two, and I am not worried about David."
-- Eagles coach Andy Reid
"Sometimes a kicker just doesn't have it."
-- Ravens coach Brian Billick
Akers wasn't a high draft choice. He wasn't drafted at all. The Panthers signed him in 1997, and he later went to the Falcons; the Eagles got him cheap as a free agent in '99. Stover was a comparative draft darling: the Giants took him in the 12th round in 1990, as the third-to-last player chosen. The 12th round doesn't exist anymore. Nor do Rounds 8-11.
Sure, Billick and Reid can afford to be sanguine about their kickers' struggles. After all, Stover was critical in getting the Ravens to the Super Bowl in 2000, and Akers has been a vital cog in the Eagles' run of excellence. But are the coaches willing to cut them a little slack because they usually deliver, or do they usually deliver because the coaches are willing to cut them a little slack?
Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Week 1 postmortem
I went 11-5 for Week 1 with my selections on The Writers' Picks.
How I got it right, and how I got it wrong:
CORRECT PICKS
New England over Oakland: There's really no compelling reason not to pick the Patriots, regardless of who they're playing. Certainly not the fantasy football all-stars.
Washington over Chicago: The Redskins' offense can't do anything, but this week they were playing a team that can do even less. Kyle Orton may very well put it together, but he wasn't going to this week.
Cincinnati over Cleveland: Too much change in Cleveland in too little time, particularly when the opponent is an intrastate rival who sees this as a must-win. Carson Palmer made a couple dumb mistakes (one interception in the end zone, another returned for a TD but called back on a phantom penalty), but at times looked scary good.
Buffalo over Houston: Buffalo's defense is just too good for a Houston offense that, four years on, has yet to show much of anything.
Kansas City over New York Jets: Chad Pennington was supposed to be healthy, but that just doesn't matter. Though Pennington is not a bad quarterback, too many people forget that he's a star more because he plays in New York than because of his ability. Six fumbles? He had five total in 13 games last year. Six words, one for each fumble: Kurt Warner in the 2003 opener.
Jacksonville over Seattle: When two overrated teams play, go with the home team.
Tampa Bay over Minnesota: No team reads its own press more closely than the Minnesota Vikings. Yes, the defense has been upgraded and will be better. And, yes, the team will be better off without Randy Moss, because when one player becomes that much larger than the rest, there's no incentive for the others to perform. But neither the defense nor the offense is better yet, various Super Bowl predictions notwithstanding. And Tampa Bay just has Minnesota's number.
Pittsburgh over Tennessee: Of course the Steelers won't go 15-1 again. But it seems everyone decided to be "bold" and "contrarian" and pick them to fall off the table. Feh. Didn't suprise me that Ben Roethlisberger completed 80% of his passes. Or that he only had to attempt 11 passes.
New York Giants over Arizona: Arizona has a very good chance of winning the NFC West. The Giants have no chance of winning the NFC East. Still, this was easy.
Indianapolis over Baltimore: No special insight here. The Colts are just better than the Ravens. The ol' WWW is abuzz with discussion of the Ravens' last-minute timeout while trailing 24-0. Both sides of the argument have some merit, but in the end, it was a waste of time. The Colts were just trying to get out of the game and not make the Ravens look bad unnecessarily. Am I saying the Ravens should have just rolled over at that point? Of course not. They'd rolled over long before that. They couldn't win. Pulling out all the stops to pull within 17 points with 13 seconds left is no less pathetic than being shut out. Me, I love scores like 41-3 and 56-7 because it's fun to imagine what was going through the losing team's heads when they scored that one time.
Atlanta over Philadelphia: This was just a gut pick. The Falcons were going to be up for this game, and the Eagles weren't. I don't know why Donovan McNabb turned the ball over three times, but it wasn't because Jeremiah Trotter got thrown out of the game.
INCORRECT PICKS
Denver over Miami: Denver isn't going to be very good this year, but I thought they could take a team undergoing a complete overhaul, humidity or no humidity. Boy was I wrong.
Carolina over New Orleans: I could never say with any certainty what role emotion played in this game, but I wouldn't discount anything. Carolina expected to win. New Orleans wanted to win. My bad. (Also, I want to address some things I heard in the past week about America "pulling" for a team. As much as I pray for the people in New Orleans, as much as I was glad to see LSU beat Arizona State, as much as I smiled at the Saints' victory, it just isn't right to declare that "all of America" was pulling for the Saints. So Panthers fans are bad Americans? Are Giants fans bad Americans this week? Similarly, last week, before the Patriots-Raiders game, there were the inevitable rehashes of the Snow Bowl in the 2001 playoffs. On SportsCenter one night, in describing Adam Vinatieri's incredible kick that tied the game, one of the commentators -- I can't be sure whom, though I have my suspicions -- said he believes God himself guided the ball because after the horrors of 9/11, America needed a team called the "Patriots" to win. Talk about asinine. Talk about bathetic. Talk about blasphemy. To say that God wouldn't intervene to stop the murder of 3,000 innocents, but would change the outcome of a football game to make us feel better about it? Sad.
Dallas over San Diego: I couldn't believe Dallas' roster of castoffs and second-chancers would grease the Chargers like that. Dan Snyder must be kicking himself. I also admit I forgot that Antonio Gates would be sitting. Duh.
Green Bay over Detroit: I thought the Lions were going to be better than the Packers this year. I just didn't think they were already better.
St. Louis over San Francisco: This was less a pick for the Rams than against the 49ers. Either way, I have no explanation. But I am not alone.
THIS WEEK: 11-5
THIS SEASON: 11-5
UPDATE: WEEK 1 POW-R-'ANKINGS COMPLETE
Down and Distance's exclusive Pow-R-'Ankings are the finest ratings of NFL team strength available to the public. They are based on proprietary analysis of key statistical indicators. Opinion plays no role. Be warned, however, that because the season is only a week old, the data set is still small, and these rankings may at this point be skewed.
How I got it right, and how I got it wrong:
CORRECT PICKS
New England over Oakland: There's really no compelling reason not to pick the Patriots, regardless of who they're playing. Certainly not the fantasy football all-stars.
Washington over Chicago: The Redskins' offense can't do anything, but this week they were playing a team that can do even less. Kyle Orton may very well put it together, but he wasn't going to this week.
Cincinnati over Cleveland: Too much change in Cleveland in too little time, particularly when the opponent is an intrastate rival who sees this as a must-win. Carson Palmer made a couple dumb mistakes (one interception in the end zone, another returned for a TD but called back on a phantom penalty), but at times looked scary good.
Buffalo over Houston: Buffalo's defense is just too good for a Houston offense that, four years on, has yet to show much of anything.
Kansas City over New York Jets: Chad Pennington was supposed to be healthy, but that just doesn't matter. Though Pennington is not a bad quarterback, too many people forget that he's a star more because he plays in New York than because of his ability. Six fumbles? He had five total in 13 games last year. Six words, one for each fumble: Kurt Warner in the 2003 opener.
Jacksonville over Seattle: When two overrated teams play, go with the home team.
Tampa Bay over Minnesota: No team reads its own press more closely than the Minnesota Vikings. Yes, the defense has been upgraded and will be better. And, yes, the team will be better off without Randy Moss, because when one player becomes that much larger than the rest, there's no incentive for the others to perform. But neither the defense nor the offense is better yet, various Super Bowl predictions notwithstanding. And Tampa Bay just has Minnesota's number.
Pittsburgh over Tennessee: Of course the Steelers won't go 15-1 again. But it seems everyone decided to be "bold" and "contrarian" and pick them to fall off the table. Feh. Didn't suprise me that Ben Roethlisberger completed 80% of his passes. Or that he only had to attempt 11 passes.
New York Giants over Arizona: Arizona has a very good chance of winning the NFC West. The Giants have no chance of winning the NFC East. Still, this was easy.
Indianapolis over Baltimore: No special insight here. The Colts are just better than the Ravens. The ol' WWW is abuzz with discussion of the Ravens' last-minute timeout while trailing 24-0. Both sides of the argument have some merit, but in the end, it was a waste of time. The Colts were just trying to get out of the game and not make the Ravens look bad unnecessarily. Am I saying the Ravens should have just rolled over at that point? Of course not. They'd rolled over long before that. They couldn't win. Pulling out all the stops to pull within 17 points with 13 seconds left is no less pathetic than being shut out. Me, I love scores like 41-3 and 56-7 because it's fun to imagine what was going through the losing team's heads when they scored that one time.
Atlanta over Philadelphia: This was just a gut pick. The Falcons were going to be up for this game, and the Eagles weren't. I don't know why Donovan McNabb turned the ball over three times, but it wasn't because Jeremiah Trotter got thrown out of the game.
INCORRECT PICKS
Denver over Miami: Denver isn't going to be very good this year, but I thought they could take a team undergoing a complete overhaul, humidity or no humidity. Boy was I wrong.
Carolina over New Orleans: I could never say with any certainty what role emotion played in this game, but I wouldn't discount anything. Carolina expected to win. New Orleans wanted to win. My bad. (Also, I want to address some things I heard in the past week about America "pulling" for a team. As much as I pray for the people in New Orleans, as much as I was glad to see LSU beat Arizona State, as much as I smiled at the Saints' victory, it just isn't right to declare that "all of America" was pulling for the Saints. So Panthers fans are bad Americans? Are Giants fans bad Americans this week? Similarly, last week, before the Patriots-Raiders game, there were the inevitable rehashes of the Snow Bowl in the 2001 playoffs. On SportsCenter one night, in describing Adam Vinatieri's incredible kick that tied the game, one of the commentators -- I can't be sure whom, though I have my suspicions -- said he believes God himself guided the ball because after the horrors of 9/11, America needed a team called the "Patriots" to win. Talk about asinine. Talk about bathetic. Talk about blasphemy. To say that God wouldn't intervene to stop the murder of 3,000 innocents, but would change the outcome of a football game to make us feel better about it? Sad.
Dallas over San Diego: I couldn't believe Dallas' roster of castoffs and second-chancers would grease the Chargers like that. Dan Snyder must be kicking himself. I also admit I forgot that Antonio Gates would be sitting. Duh.
Green Bay over Detroit: I thought the Lions were going to be better than the Packers this year. I just didn't think they were already better.
St. Louis over San Francisco: This was less a pick for the Rams than against the 49ers. Either way, I have no explanation. But I am not alone.
THIS WEEK: 11-5
THIS SEASON: 11-5
UPDATE: WEEK 1 POW-R-'ANKINGS COMPLETE
Down and Distance's exclusive Pow-R-'Ankings are the finest ratings of NFL team strength available to the public. They are based on proprietary analysis of key statistical indicators. Opinion plays no role. Be warned, however, that because the season is only a week old, the data set is still small, and these rankings may at this point be skewed.
| 1. Lions | 9. Bengals | 17. Rams | 25. Cardinals |
| 2. Steelers | 10. Jaguars | 18. Panthers | 26. Texans |
| 3. Bucs | 11. Patriots | 19. Chargers | 27. Broncos |
| 4. Chiefs | 12. Falcons | 20. Bears | 28. Ravens |
| 5. Colts | 13. Redskins | 21. Eagles | 29. Jets |
| 6. Dolphins | 14. Cowboys | 22. Raiders | 30. Vikings |
| 7. Bills | 15. Saints | 23. Seahawks | 31. Titans |
| 8. Giants | 16. 49ers | 24. Browns | 32. Packers |
Monday, September 12, 2005
Field guide to wide receivers
The call of a team on the rise
"This don't mean nothing. It's Game 1. Too soon. Holler at me when we're 5-0 or 7-0, and then we're knocking on the door of the playoffs."
-- Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati, after 27-13 win over Cleveland
The call of a team on the decline
"It goes to show that the best team doesn't always win. I think we were the better team at times today. Stats-wise, we showed we were a better team."
-- Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis, after 28-25 loss to San Francisco
"This don't mean nothing. It's Game 1. Too soon. Holler at me when we're 5-0 or 7-0, and then we're knocking on the door of the playoffs."
-- Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati, after 27-13 win over Cleveland
The call of a team on the decline
"It goes to show that the best team doesn't always win. I think we were the better team at times today. Stats-wise, we showed we were a better team."
-- Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis, after 28-25 loss to San Francisco
Sunday, September 11, 2005
Cloudy forecasts
If it's the brink of the NFL season, you're sure to find newspapers, sports magazines and sports-oriented websites offering their predictions for the coming season. All have their picks for division winners, wild cards, league champions and the Super Bowl winner. It's all fodder for debate, and there's nothing wrong with any of it. (But doesn't anyone expect Pittsburgh to be better than Cincinnati this year?)
Some sources go further, however, and try to predict the regular season record of each team. Even the people who make these predictions know they're on a fool's errand. Indianapolis can't win 13 games if Peyton Manning breaks his leg. If Neil Rackers suddenly gets the yips, Arizona finishes with three fewer wins. Some team expected to win 10 games will in fact win five, and a team expected to win maybe five or six games will instead win 11 or 12 and get at least one playoff game at home. The best a prognosticator can hope to do is say Team A should be good, Team B will probably stink and Team C should improve. But that kind of equivocation doesn't sell newspapers, move magazine subscriptions or drive Web traffic. So you get exact forecasts of won-loss records.
Writers have their reasons -- good reasons -- for predicting that, say, Arizona will go 9-7 and win the NFC West. Or that Atlanta will go 13-3. Anything's possible, and I have yet to see a preseason prediction that defies all logic. No one is saying Cleveland will go 14-2 this year. Or predicting a 3-13 finish for New England. So it's pointless to quibble with specific predictions before a down has been played.
All that said, however, there are some things every NFL seer should be taking into account when dishing up his or her predictions for the year about to kick off. Basic stuff that should be central to any attempt to forecast exact records. Whether a season preview gets those things right -- now that's something worth critiquing.
I looked at six sources that predicted final records for the 32 teams: a national magazine, a national newspaper, two local newspapers and two independent websites. They are:
The results point to the dangers of a) looking at each team, division or conference in isolation, and b) splitting your forecast among several writers. If I'm responsible for breaking down only the AFC East, I'll say New England's going 13-3, the Jets will be 11-5, Buffalo 9-7 and Miami 5-11. Reasonable, right? But that's a division record of 38-26. Somewhere, some team or combination of teams has to lose 12 more games than they win in order to balance it out. Now, if several writers have divvied up the eight divisions, no one is looking at the big picture. And because the tendency is to give teams the benefit of the doubt, the balance sheet becomes skewed in favor of wins. USA Today had several writers assemble its forecast and wound up with a forecast 26 games out of balance. The Buffalo News had one writer for each conference and came out eight games out of whack. The Tampa Tribune, however, had one writer, Ira Kaufman, take on the whole league, and his forecast is balanced. Sports Illustrated also was in balance. Adam Hoff at WhatIfSports.com, a site that pits teams from different areas against each other, came close enough -- one game out of balance -- that it may just be a mistake. (Credit to Hoff for being the only one to err on the side of more losses, though.)
Another element a forecast should consider is the share of winners and losers. Though the number of wins and losses is always equal, the numbers of teams with winning records and losing records are rarely the same. Say you have a four-team league. You could have teams finishing 14-2, 7-9, 6-10 and 5-11. The league would have an even 32 wins and 32 losses, but would have just one winning team and three losing teams. Complicating matters is the fact that the NFL usually has some teams that finish as neither losers nor winners. These are the ones that go 8-8.
For a sense of what an "average" NFL season produces in terms of winners and losers, I looked at the past 15 years, 1990-2004. Raw numbers can't be compared from year to year because for the period in question, the league grew from 28 teams (1999-94) to 30 teams (1995-98) to 31 teams (1999-2001) to 32 teams (2002-present). So for each year, I converted the numbers of winners, losers and 8-8 teams to a percentage of the teams in the league. I then got the average of those percentages over the 15-year span and applied it to the current 32-team league.
On average, over the past 15 years, 45.3% of the teams in a given year finished 9-7 or better; 43.9% finished 7-9 or worse; and 10.9% finished 8-8. Projected to an "average" year in a 32-team league, that comes out to 14.5 winners, 14 losers and 3.5 teams at 8-8. Here's how the six forecasts compare with the hypothetical average year:
The only number here that's completely out of the range seen in the past 15 years is USA Today's multi-writer forecast of eight losers, or only 25% of the teams in the league. But here's what's really remarkable about the table:
Every forecast calls for more winners than losers. In only six of the 15 seasons examined were there more winners than losers. In another six seasons, there were more losers than winners. In the remaining three seasons, the numbers were equal.
Every forecast is for a higher-than-average percentage of winners. All three of the newspapers predict 17 winners this year, or 53.1% of the league. Only once in 15 years has the NFL seen more than half its teams finish 9-7 or better: 2000, when 16 of 31 (51.6%) did it. Sports Illustrated and Sports E-Cyclopedia get as close to the average as possible, yet still go to the high side of it. WhatIfSports goes for an even half of the league finishing above .500. For those interested, the lowest percentage of winners in the past 15 years came in 1999: 11 of 31 teams (35.5%).
All forecasts except one are for a lower-than-average percentage of losers. WhatIfSports hits the 15-year average of 14 losses, or 43.9%. Three sources predict 12 losers, or 37.5%. One picks 11 (34.4%), and we already discussed USAT at 25%. But only once in the past 15 years have fewer than 39% of the league's teams been losers: 1999, when 11 of 31, or 35.5%, finished 7-9 or worse.
(Yes, that's correct about 1999: 11 teams were winners, 11 were losers and nine were 8-8. Now that's parity. Of a sort.)
The last issue I'll bring up related to forecasts is extremes. Generally, if you get 11 or 12 wins, you're good. But if you get 13 wins, you're considered really good. Conversely, if you win only five or six games, you're pretty bad. But you finish 3-13 or worse, you stink. So let's compare how many teams the forecasts say will finish with 13 to 15 wins or 1 to 3 wins, compared with the league averages over the past 15 years:
There's something a little misleading about this table: No source predicted that any team would finish with one, 14 or 15 wins, and only one source predicted that any team would finish 2-14 (Cleveland, as picked by Sports E-Cyclopedia). So almost all predictions at the extremes are for 3-13 or 13-3. To top it off, all but one forecast lowballed the number of teams at the extremes. The reason for that is obvious: Forecasters can stand to be wrong, but no one wants to go that far out on a limb. I know I wouldn't.
The intention here is not to mock out the forecasts. They're done in fun, and they provide great grist for football talk. But by adhering to certain rules -- evening out wins and losses, sticking to reasonable ratios of winners to losers -- we could devise forecasts that come closer to reality, and thus would prompt even livelier discussion.
Some sources go further, however, and try to predict the regular season record of each team. Even the people who make these predictions know they're on a fool's errand. Indianapolis can't win 13 games if Peyton Manning breaks his leg. If Neil Rackers suddenly gets the yips, Arizona finishes with three fewer wins. Some team expected to win 10 games will in fact win five, and a team expected to win maybe five or six games will instead win 11 or 12 and get at least one playoff game at home. The best a prognosticator can hope to do is say Team A should be good, Team B will probably stink and Team C should improve. But that kind of equivocation doesn't sell newspapers, move magazine subscriptions or drive Web traffic. So you get exact forecasts of won-loss records.
Writers have their reasons -- good reasons -- for predicting that, say, Arizona will go 9-7 and win the NFC West. Or that Atlanta will go 13-3. Anything's possible, and I have yet to see a preseason prediction that defies all logic. No one is saying Cleveland will go 14-2 this year. Or predicting a 3-13 finish for New England. So it's pointless to quibble with specific predictions before a down has been played.
All that said, however, there are some things every NFL seer should be taking into account when dishing up his or her predictions for the year about to kick off. Basic stuff that should be central to any attempt to forecast exact records. Whether a season preview gets those things right -- now that's something worth critiquing.
I looked at six sources that predicted final records for the 32 teams: a national magazine, a national newspaper, two local newspapers and two independent websites. They are:
- Sports Illustrated. Picks
- USA Today. AFC | NFC (projected records appeared in print edition; not available online)
- Tampa Tribune. Picks
- Buffalo News. AFC | NFC
- The Sports E-Cyclopedia. Picks
- WhatIfSports.com Insider. Picks
| FORECAST | TOTAL WINS | TOTAL LOSSES |
| Sports Illustrated | 256 | 256 |
| USA Today | 282 | 230 |
| Tampa Tribune | 256 | 256 |
| Buffalo News | 264 | 248 |
| Sports E-Cyclopedia | 260 | 252 |
| WhatIfSports.com | 255 | 257 |
The results point to the dangers of a) looking at each team, division or conference in isolation, and b) splitting your forecast among several writers. If I'm responsible for breaking down only the AFC East, I'll say New England's going 13-3, the Jets will be 11-5, Buffalo 9-7 and Miami 5-11. Reasonable, right? But that's a division record of 38-26. Somewhere, some team or combination of teams has to lose 12 more games than they win in order to balance it out. Now, if several writers have divvied up the eight divisions, no one is looking at the big picture. And because the tendency is to give teams the benefit of the doubt, the balance sheet becomes skewed in favor of wins. USA Today had several writers assemble its forecast and wound up with a forecast 26 games out of balance. The Buffalo News had one writer for each conference and came out eight games out of whack. The Tampa Tribune, however, had one writer, Ira Kaufman, take on the whole league, and his forecast is balanced. Sports Illustrated also was in balance. Adam Hoff at WhatIfSports.com, a site that pits teams from different areas against each other, came close enough -- one game out of balance -- that it may just be a mistake. (Credit to Hoff for being the only one to err on the side of more losses, though.)
Another element a forecast should consider is the share of winners and losers. Though the number of wins and losses is always equal, the numbers of teams with winning records and losing records are rarely the same. Say you have a four-team league. You could have teams finishing 14-2, 7-9, 6-10 and 5-11. The league would have an even 32 wins and 32 losses, but would have just one winning team and three losing teams. Complicating matters is the fact that the NFL usually has some teams that finish as neither losers nor winners. These are the ones that go 8-8.
For a sense of what an "average" NFL season produces in terms of winners and losers, I looked at the past 15 years, 1990-2004. Raw numbers can't be compared from year to year because for the period in question, the league grew from 28 teams (1999-94) to 30 teams (1995-98) to 31 teams (1999-2001) to 32 teams (2002-present). So for each year, I converted the numbers of winners, losers and 8-8 teams to a percentage of the teams in the league. I then got the average of those percentages over the 15-year span and applied it to the current 32-team league.
On average, over the past 15 years, 45.3% of the teams in a given year finished 9-7 or better; 43.9% finished 7-9 or worse; and 10.9% finished 8-8. Projected to an "average" year in a 32-team league, that comes out to 14.5 winners, 14 losers and 3.5 teams at 8-8. Here's how the six forecasts compare with the hypothetical average year:
| AVG. | SI | USAT | Tampa | Buffalo | E-Cyclo | WhatIf | |
| Winners | 14.5 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 16 |
| Losers | 14 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 8-8 | 3.5 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
The only number here that's completely out of the range seen in the past 15 years is USA Today's multi-writer forecast of eight losers, or only 25% of the teams in the league. But here's what's really remarkable about the table:
Every forecast calls for more winners than losers. In only six of the 15 seasons examined were there more winners than losers. In another six seasons, there were more losers than winners. In the remaining three seasons, the numbers were equal.
Every forecast is for a higher-than-average percentage of winners. All three of the newspapers predict 17 winners this year, or 53.1% of the league. Only once in 15 years has the NFL seen more than half its teams finish 9-7 or better: 2000, when 16 of 31 (51.6%) did it. Sports Illustrated and Sports E-Cyclopedia get as close to the average as possible, yet still go to the high side of it. WhatIfSports goes for an even half of the league finishing above .500. For those interested, the lowest percentage of winners in the past 15 years came in 1999: 11 of 31 teams (35.5%).
All forecasts except one are for a lower-than-average percentage of losers. WhatIfSports hits the 15-year average of 14 losses, or 43.9%. Three sources predict 12 losers, or 37.5%. One picks 11 (34.4%), and we already discussed USAT at 25%. But only once in the past 15 years have fewer than 39% of the league's teams been losers: 1999, when 11 of 31, or 35.5%, finished 7-9 or worse.
(Yes, that's correct about 1999: 11 teams were winners, 11 were losers and nine were 8-8. Now that's parity. Of a sort.)
The last issue I'll bring up related to forecasts is extremes. Generally, if you get 11 or 12 wins, you're good. But if you get 13 wins, you're considered really good. Conversely, if you win only five or six games, you're pretty bad. But you finish 3-13 or worse, you stink. So let's compare how many teams the forecasts say will finish with 13 to 15 wins or 1 to 3 wins, compared with the league averages over the past 15 years:
| AVG. | SI | USAT | Tampa | Buffalo | E-Cyclo | WhatIf | |
| 13-15 wins | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 1-3 wins | 2.2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Combined | 4.4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
There's something a little misleading about this table: No source predicted that any team would finish with one, 14 or 15 wins, and only one source predicted that any team would finish 2-14 (Cleveland, as picked by Sports E-Cyclopedia). So almost all predictions at the extremes are for 3-13 or 13-3. To top it off, all but one forecast lowballed the number of teams at the extremes. The reason for that is obvious: Forecasters can stand to be wrong, but no one wants to go that far out on a limb. I know I wouldn't.
The intention here is not to mock out the forecasts. They're done in fun, and they provide great grist for football talk. But by adhering to certain rules -- evening out wins and losses, sticking to reasonable ratios of winners to losers -- we could devise forecasts that come closer to reality, and thus would prompt even livelier discussion.
Thursday, September 08, 2005
Vikings: 28 next years and counting
Take a look at this chart. It ranks NFL teams by the number of playoff appearances they have made in the 39 years of the Super Bowl era. Also included are the number of conference (or league, pre-1970) championship games the teams have reached, how many Super Bowls they have played in, and the number of Super Bowl titles each has won:
The chart is all you need to know about being a Vikings fan.
I grew up in Minneapolis, and the first NFL game I can remember watching was Super Bowl XI: Minnesota Vikings vs. Oakland Raiders. Particularly when you're a 7-year-old kid, your first experience with something becomes your point of reference, so I just assumed that the Vikings were in the Super Bowl every year. This wasn't entirely ridiculous: The 1976 season marked the fourth time the Vikings had reached the Super Bowl, meaning they had appeared in more than one-third of the games to that point, and half of the past eight. (Dallas and Miami had each been there three times.) Midway through the fourth quarter, when Willie Brown intercepted a Fran Tarkenton pass and ran it back 75 yards for the nail-in-the-coffin TD, I thought something along the lines of "we'll get 'em next year."
Twenty-eight next years later, the Vikings have yet to return to the Super Bowl. Purple Power!
The research that produced the chart above came from a hunch. I suspected that the Vikings just had to be the team with the most playoff appearances without a ring. They made the postseason eight times in the 1970s, five times in the '80s and seven times in the '90s. In addition to their four Super Bowl appearances, they played in the NFC Championship Game four times. I assumed that repeat champions like the Steelers, Raiders, Cowboys and 49ers had made more trips to the playoffs, but no one could match the Vikes for the sheer number of postseason trips with nothing to show for them.
When I got all the numbers together, it was even more depressing. The Vikings have been to the playoffs more than any team except Dallas. There are teams with a total of 15 titles weirdly clustered at 21 appearances each, three fewer than the Vikings. The Patriots have been in the playoffs half as many times yet have been to one more Super Bowl and have won three rings. The Redskins and Packers have each been to the dance 10 fewer times, yet each club has three titles.
Now, I have long since quit living and dying by the Vikings. But understand that this is what it's like to be a Minnesotan: Year after year, you think you have a shot, and you get nothing. You can lose big (e.g. Walter Mondale in 1984; or Giants 41, Vikings 0 in the 2000 NFC Championship Game). You can lose narrrowly (Hubert Humphrey in 1968; or Falcons 30, Vikings 27 in overtime in the 1998 NFC Championship Game). You can lose year after year after year (Harold Stassen, the Jerry Burns era). But you will lose. Oh, sure, the Minneapolis Lakers didn't lose; they won several NBA titles. But the state lost the team to L.A. The Minnesota North Stars lost the 1991 Stanley Cup Finals, and the state soon lost that team to the burgeoning hockey hotbed of Dallas/Fort Worth. The Minnesota Twins -- God love 'em, the only team that can still make me cry -- won the World Series twice in five years, and Major League Baseball put out a contract on them, or whatever that was. This is sports life in the Gopher State.
But back to the Viqueens, as Morgan Mundane loved to call them. The deeper you look into the numbers, the more maddening they become. Many of the teams at the top of the list went dry at one time or another. The Rams, for example, made the playoffs in 1989, when they were still in Los Angeles, and didn't get back until 1999, by which time they had moved to St. Louis. The Raiders went in 1993, while they were in Los Angeles, and their next appearance wasn't until 2000, by which time they had moved back to Oakland. The 49ers played in the NFC Championship Game in 1970 and '71, made the playoffs in '73, then disappeared until '81. The Cowboys were out of it from 1986 through 1990. The Vikings' longest stretch without a playoff appearance: four years, 1983-86. That matches the worst stretches of the Dolphins (two rings) and Steelers (four). The Vikings are always a threat to make the playoffs; they just don't do anything to make you proud while there.
The Vikings' postseason futility spans all eras. Since their last Super Bowl, they've lost the conference title game after the 1977 season (under Bud Grant), 1987 (Jerry Burns) and 1998 and 2000 (Dennis Green). The only Vikings coaches (except Norm Van Brocklin in the post-expansion years) who haven't made it to -- and lost -- the NFC Championsip Game are Mike Tice (working on it) and Les Steckel (3-13 in 1984). Further, it wasn't just losing those games; it was the way they were lost:
1977: Defending NFC champion Minnesota goes into Texas Stadium and gets throttled 23-6. Dallas goes on to wipe its shoes with the Denver Broncos.
1987: The Vikings, who had been on strike and unloved while the Twins were becoming World Series champions, win back the hearts of Minnesotans in the playoffs by crushing the Saints 44-10 and shocking the 49ers 36-24, both on the road. They proceed to break those same hearts in the NFC title game when Darrin Nelson drops the tying touchdown in the end zone, the Redskins win 17-10, and Washington disassembles the Broncos in the Super Bowl.
1998: The original Greatest Show on Turf. Randall Cunningham, Cris Carter, Randy Moss, Robert Smith and the rest of the boys in violet set a league record with 556 points scored. They go 15-1, winning games by gaudy scores of 41-7, 50-10 and 31-7. Gary Anderson, who was a million years old even back then, misses only one kick all year: the winning field goal in the NFC Championship Game. Atlanta wins in OT and goes on to face the damn Broncos. At least this time the Broncos win. Cold comfort.
2000: Minnesotans see this loss coming, though not the size: Giants over Vikings, 41-0. Kerry Collins, who two weeks later would turn in the most dreadful appearance by a quarterback in Super Bowl history, looks like Y.A. Tittle in slicing the Vikings to ribbons. At least the Giants, rather than the Vikings, go on to get killed by the Ravens. At least, at least, at least. Even colder comfort.
A reasonable person could say that this is being awfully hard on the Vikings. After all, they've made the playoffs. If the chart above proves something else, it's that the St. Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals are truly the pits of the league. But nowadays, people in Arizona are thinking about going to the playoffs and are excited about the prospect. Vikings fans don't get excited by being in the playoffs. They're like Atlanta Braves fans that way: They want to know, what are you going to DO with this opportunity? I'd venture to say that Vikings fans would trade all those 9-7 seasons, all those losses in the wild-card round, all those shellackings in someone else's stadium, for a single five-year stretch that ends in a Super Bowl victory. Like Tampa Bay in 2002 or Baltimore in 2000. Or, hell, the Minnesota Twins in 1987 and 1991.
As it stands now, Minnesotans know tht the Vikings could make the playoffs this year. They're almost dreading it.
----------
Note: Yes, the Vikings were officially NFL champions in 1969, the last year before the merger. They even wore a patch on their uniforms to that effect in 1994 (the 25th anniversary season). But they lost the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. The championship was only a technicality.
| TEAM | PLAYOFFS | CH. GAMES | SUPER BOWLS | SB TITLES |
| Cowboys | 27 | 16 | 8 | 5 |
| Vikings | 24 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| 49ers | 21 | 12 | 5 | 5 |
| Steelers | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 |
| Raiders | 21 | 14 | 5 | 3 |
| Dolphins | 21 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Rams | 21 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Broncos | 16 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| Oilers/Titans | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Eagles | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Redskins | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Packers | 14 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Colts | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Bills | 14 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Browns | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chiefs | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Patriots | 12 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Bears | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Jets | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Giants | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Lions | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Buccaneers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Chargers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Falcons | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bengals | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Seahawks | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Saints | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaguars | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ravens | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Panthers | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
The chart is all you need to know about being a Vikings fan.
I grew up in Minneapolis, and the first NFL game I can remember watching was Super Bowl XI: Minnesota Vikings vs. Oakland Raiders. Particularly when you're a 7-year-old kid, your first experience with something becomes your point of reference, so I just assumed that the Vikings were in the Super Bowl every year. This wasn't entirely ridiculous: The 1976 season marked the fourth time the Vikings had reached the Super Bowl, meaning they had appeared in more than one-third of the games to that point, and half of the past eight. (Dallas and Miami had each been there three times.) Midway through the fourth quarter, when Willie Brown intercepted a Fran Tarkenton pass and ran it back 75 yards for the nail-in-the-coffin TD, I thought something along the lines of "we'll get 'em next year."
Twenty-eight next years later, the Vikings have yet to return to the Super Bowl. Purple Power!
The research that produced the chart above came from a hunch. I suspected that the Vikings just had to be the team with the most playoff appearances without a ring. They made the postseason eight times in the 1970s, five times in the '80s and seven times in the '90s. In addition to their four Super Bowl appearances, they played in the NFC Championship Game four times. I assumed that repeat champions like the Steelers, Raiders, Cowboys and 49ers had made more trips to the playoffs, but no one could match the Vikes for the sheer number of postseason trips with nothing to show for them.
When I got all the numbers together, it was even more depressing. The Vikings have been to the playoffs more than any team except Dallas. There are teams with a total of 15 titles weirdly clustered at 21 appearances each, three fewer than the Vikings. The Patriots have been in the playoffs half as many times yet have been to one more Super Bowl and have won three rings. The Redskins and Packers have each been to the dance 10 fewer times, yet each club has three titles.
Now, I have long since quit living and dying by the Vikings. But understand that this is what it's like to be a Minnesotan: Year after year, you think you have a shot, and you get nothing. You can lose big (e.g. Walter Mondale in 1984; or Giants 41, Vikings 0 in the 2000 NFC Championship Game). You can lose narrrowly (Hubert Humphrey in 1968; or Falcons 30, Vikings 27 in overtime in the 1998 NFC Championship Game). You can lose year after year after year (Harold Stassen, the Jerry Burns era). But you will lose. Oh, sure, the Minneapolis Lakers didn't lose; they won several NBA titles. But the state lost the team to L.A. The Minnesota North Stars lost the 1991 Stanley Cup Finals, and the state soon lost that team to the burgeoning hockey hotbed of Dallas/Fort Worth. The Minnesota Twins -- God love 'em, the only team that can still make me cry -- won the World Series twice in five years, and Major League Baseball put out a contract on them, or whatever that was. This is sports life in the Gopher State.
But back to the Viqueens, as Morgan Mundane loved to call them. The deeper you look into the numbers, the more maddening they become. Many of the teams at the top of the list went dry at one time or another. The Rams, for example, made the playoffs in 1989, when they were still in Los Angeles, and didn't get back until 1999, by which time they had moved to St. Louis. The Raiders went in 1993, while they were in Los Angeles, and their next appearance wasn't until 2000, by which time they had moved back to Oakland. The 49ers played in the NFC Championship Game in 1970 and '71, made the playoffs in '73, then disappeared until '81. The Cowboys were out of it from 1986 through 1990. The Vikings' longest stretch without a playoff appearance: four years, 1983-86. That matches the worst stretches of the Dolphins (two rings) and Steelers (four). The Vikings are always a threat to make the playoffs; they just don't do anything to make you proud while there.
The Vikings' postseason futility spans all eras. Since their last Super Bowl, they've lost the conference title game after the 1977 season (under Bud Grant), 1987 (Jerry Burns) and 1998 and 2000 (Dennis Green). The only Vikings coaches (except Norm Van Brocklin in the post-expansion years) who haven't made it to -- and lost -- the NFC Championsip Game are Mike Tice (working on it) and Les Steckel (3-13 in 1984). Further, it wasn't just losing those games; it was the way they were lost:
1977: Defending NFC champion Minnesota goes into Texas Stadium and gets throttled 23-6. Dallas goes on to wipe its shoes with the Denver Broncos.
1987: The Vikings, who had been on strike and unloved while the Twins were becoming World Series champions, win back the hearts of Minnesotans in the playoffs by crushing the Saints 44-10 and shocking the 49ers 36-24, both on the road. They proceed to break those same hearts in the NFC title game when Darrin Nelson drops the tying touchdown in the end zone, the Redskins win 17-10, and Washington disassembles the Broncos in the Super Bowl.
1998: The original Greatest Show on Turf. Randall Cunningham, Cris Carter, Randy Moss, Robert Smith and the rest of the boys in violet set a league record with 556 points scored. They go 15-1, winning games by gaudy scores of 41-7, 50-10 and 31-7. Gary Anderson, who was a million years old even back then, misses only one kick all year: the winning field goal in the NFC Championship Game. Atlanta wins in OT and goes on to face the damn Broncos. At least this time the Broncos win. Cold comfort.
2000: Minnesotans see this loss coming, though not the size: Giants over Vikings, 41-0. Kerry Collins, who two weeks later would turn in the most dreadful appearance by a quarterback in Super Bowl history, looks like Y.A. Tittle in slicing the Vikings to ribbons. At least the Giants, rather than the Vikings, go on to get killed by the Ravens. At least, at least, at least. Even colder comfort.
A reasonable person could say that this is being awfully hard on the Vikings. After all, they've made the playoffs. If the chart above proves something else, it's that the St. Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals are truly the pits of the league. But nowadays, people in Arizona are thinking about going to the playoffs and are excited about the prospect. Vikings fans don't get excited by being in the playoffs. They're like Atlanta Braves fans that way: They want to know, what are you going to DO with this opportunity? I'd venture to say that Vikings fans would trade all those 9-7 seasons, all those losses in the wild-card round, all those shellackings in someone else's stadium, for a single five-year stretch that ends in a Super Bowl victory. Like Tampa Bay in 2002 or Baltimore in 2000. Or, hell, the Minnesota Twins in 1987 and 1991.
As it stands now, Minnesotans know tht the Vikings could make the playoffs this year. They're almost dreading it.
----------
Note: Yes, the Vikings were officially NFL champions in 1969, the last year before the merger. They even wore a patch on their uniforms to that effect in 1994 (the 25th anniversary season). But they lost the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. The championship was only a technicality.
Weekly picks
This season I'll be taking taking part in The Writers' Picks over at TheMirl.com. We're going to try to find out who's the top prognosticator. The Week 1 picks have been posted. Check it out.
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
The Ballad of the Redskins QBs
I've quit reading the Washington Post, so I'm not sure of the status of the alleged quarterback controversy here in DC. But considering that Patrick Ramsey looked unimpressive in the preseason while Mark Brunell looked sharp against second-team defenses, I assume Redskins fans will be calling for the hook after Washington's seemingly inevitable slow start. In no city is it more true that the most popular player on the team is the backup QB.
For as long as I've lived in the DC area, it's always been thus. I moved here early in 1998, as the Redskins were coming off one of their infrequent winning seasons -- and at 8-7-1, it was pretty much the least-winningest season that can still be classified as a winning season. Though the Capitals were advancing to the Stanley Cup finals, all the sports talk in DC was about the Redskins, as it always is. Specifically, the talk was about Gus Frerotte.
Since 1994, Frerotte had been strapped in on a quarterback carousel with mad Norv Turner at the controls. First the "competition" was John Friesz. Then it was Heath Shuler, the No. 3 pick in the 1994 draft. (Shuler was an epic bust, sure, but I don't think he was a bad pick. He put up huge numbers at Tennessee in a pro-style offense and was generally labeled a can't-miss. He missed, but at least he wasn't a basket case in the Leaf model. He's since made a fortune in business. Good for him.) After Shuler crapped out, Jeff Hostetler came in to push Frerotte. He didn't push all that hard, and in the 1997 season, it appeared Frerotte had finally won the job.
And so it was that in Week 13 of the 1997 season, trailing the Giants 7-0 on national television on Sunday night, Frerotte took a snap on the goal line. He's gonna take it in himself! Touchdown. And Frerotte chose to celebrate by head-butting the padded wall along the end zone. I can't explain it. It was the first season at Jack Kent Cooke Stadium (now FedEx Field); maybe the walls at RFK had more give. Regardless, Frerotte hurt his neck and was essentially done for the year. The game ended in a tie. (Also notable about the game was that with 48 seconds left in overtime, the reliably petulant Michael Westbrook took off his helmet to argue a call and got flagged for 15, pushing the Skins out of field-goal range. It was his signature moment as a Redskin, except for the time he beat up Stephen Davis in training camp.)
Frerotte was to return for the 1998 season but wouldn't stay long, as the carousel had begun to pick up speed. Over the ensuing seven seasons it would spin madly through five coaches and a dozen quarterbacks. Other teams may have played more quarterbacks during the period, owing to injuries or free-agent losses. But no club switched QBs based on coaches' whims or owner's box pressure more frequently than the Redskins. This team goes through quarterbacks like digital cameras go through batteries.
The 1998 season began with Frerotte the starter. It also started with seven consecutive losses. Paper Bag City in the stands at the Cookie. Frerotte went to the bench, and 28-year-old Trent Green became the starter. Green put up acceptable numbers (55 percent completions, 3400 yards and, most important, 23 TDs against only 11 interceptions), and it appeared the Redskins had their quarterback of the future. So naturally the team lost him in free agency. He signed with St. Louis, which had decided Tony Banks (remember that name) was not the answer.
The loss of Green was tempered somewhat by the signing of Brad Johnson, who had done well in Minnesota before getting thrown off Denny Green's own carousel in favor of Randall Cunningham, who would later be tossed for Jeff George (remember that name), who in turn would lose his job to Daunte Culpepper, but not before Green played footsie with Dan Marino. Got all that? The upshot was that with Brad Johnson at quarterback, Tre Johnson providing Pro Bowl protection, Stephen Davis developing into a featured back, rookie Champ Bailey turning into a shutdown corner, and new owner Dan Snyder not yet ready to start playing with the buttons, the team finished 10-6 and won the NFC East and its first playoff game.
With the Redskins seemingly poised to take the next step in 2000, the team signed as free agents the declining Bruce Smith, the decrepit Mark Carrier, the disinterested Deion Sanders and the disastrous Jeff George (as a "backup"). They thus ensured that that next step would be taken on surgically repaired, arthritic knees. On the first drive in the opening game, the Redskins offense marched straight down the field and scored a TD on the Panthers. And that was about it for 2000. Though the team started 6-2, someone upstairs wanted to see George play. In George went. Down went the season. A 2-6 finish got Turner fired (when the team was still 7-6), and interim coach Terry Robiskie came in to mop up.
George's ridiculous contract meant that the next coach, Marty Schottenheimer, was obligated to make him the starter in 2001. When a quarterback known for a huge arm and a tiny head is asked to run a short passing game, you can predict the results. George, whose most notable accomplishment in Washington was declaring that leadership is an overrated quality in a quarterback, was cut after two games, which the Redskins lost 30-3 and 37-0. The backup was newly signed Tony Banks. A year earlier, the Ravens, like the Rams, had decided that Banks wasn't the answer. And the Ravens, like the Rams, won the Super Bowl after doing so. The Redskins had no choice but to make him their answer. And to make newly signed Kent Graham their backup answer. At this point, rookie Sage Rosenfels, a fifth-round draft choice, had the most experience in Schottenheimer's system. It's no surprise then, that after five games, the team was 0-5 and had been outscored 135-25, including a 45-13 loss in Week 3 to the Trent Green-led Chiefs. The Skins won their next five and finished 8-8. Schottenheimer had patched up his differences with some of the veterans, and the club looked ready to move forward. But Snyder's longtime crush, Steve Spurrier, was looking for an NFL job, so Marty was out.
Banks was out, too, and was off to Dallas, where Bill Parcells made an example of him by cutting him before he even got to camp. For 2002, Spurrier figured that the key to the offense that was so successful in college was putting it in the hands of two quarterbacks who had failed in the NFL: Florida alumni Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerffel. Rookie Patrick Ramsey was also in camp, because Snyder had wanted to pick a quarterback in the first round, regardless of whether there were any QBs worthy of a first-round selection available. Spurrier never seemed to like Ramsey but appeared resigned to having to play him at some point. Rosenfels moved on to Miami, where today he's third on the depth chart behind Gus Frerotte (there he is again!). The University of Florida guys immediately endeared themselves to the city by letting Spurrier give them Joe Theismann's and Sonny Jurgensen's jersey numbers (7 for Wuerffel, 9 for Matthews). That didn't go over well, and they got 17 and 6 instead. Of the two, Matthews showed the most promise, so Spurrier was determined to play Wuerffel. All three quarterbacks got playing time in the Fun N' Gun offense, and the Redskins finished 7-9, despite the Fun N' Gun offense.
By 2003, Matthews and Wuerffel were gone, and Ramsey was the starter. Washington watched with gruesome fascination as Ramsey was beaten within an inch of his life every Sunday and Spurrier slowly came unglued. Ramsey lasted 12 weeks, which frankly was a miracle, and the far-less-talented Hasselbeck brother, Tim, took over. Spurrier tried to talk Wuerffel into coming back. Wuerffel, however, knew he was done, which is the sort of thing you really expect the coach to figure out before the player. The Redskins and their $25 million coach finished 5-11, the team's worst record in nine years. Unable to cut his own throat with his visor brim, Spurrier quit instead.
Joe Gibbs, the legendary Redskins coach and really the only trick Snyder had left to pull out of the hat, returned to the team in 2004. His first acquisition was quarterback Mark Brunell. Though no one else wanted Brunell, though he had replaced by a rookie in Jacksonville, though he was in his mid-30s and five years removed from his last Pro Bowl season, the Redskins gave him an $8.6 million signing bonus that rendered him uncuttable. He was also unplayable. On the season's first play from scrimmage, Brunell handed off to Clinton Portis, who ran 60-some yards for a touchdown. It was Brunell's best work of the year. Pretty soon Ramsey was playing again. It wasn't until the 13th game of the season that the team scored 19 points in a game. The record: 6-10. Better than Spurrier's the year before, at least!
Which brings us to today. The preseason has folks in DC muttering again. Ramsey will start, but Brunell is on the bench, and the Redskins traded up in the draft to get Jason Campbell. Snyder's going to want to see him play, as will Gibbs.
Gus Frerotte, Jeff Hostetler, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Tony Banks, Kent Graham, Shane Matthews, Danny Wuerffel, Patrick Ramsey, Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell. Norv Turner, Terry Robiskie, Marty Schottenheimer, Steve Spurrier, Joe Gibbs. The coaches change, the names change, the seasons change, but the carousel turns, turns, turns.
For as long as I've lived in the DC area, it's always been thus. I moved here early in 1998, as the Redskins were coming off one of their infrequent winning seasons -- and at 8-7-1, it was pretty much the least-winningest season that can still be classified as a winning season. Though the Capitals were advancing to the Stanley Cup finals, all the sports talk in DC was about the Redskins, as it always is. Specifically, the talk was about Gus Frerotte.
Since 1994, Frerotte had been strapped in on a quarterback carousel with mad Norv Turner at the controls. First the "competition" was John Friesz. Then it was Heath Shuler, the No. 3 pick in the 1994 draft. (Shuler was an epic bust, sure, but I don't think he was a bad pick. He put up huge numbers at Tennessee in a pro-style offense and was generally labeled a can't-miss. He missed, but at least he wasn't a basket case in the Leaf model. He's since made a fortune in business. Good for him.) After Shuler crapped out, Jeff Hostetler came in to push Frerotte. He didn't push all that hard, and in the 1997 season, it appeared Frerotte had finally won the job.
And so it was that in Week 13 of the 1997 season, trailing the Giants 7-0 on national television on Sunday night, Frerotte took a snap on the goal line. He's gonna take it in himself! Touchdown. And Frerotte chose to celebrate by head-butting the padded wall along the end zone. I can't explain it. It was the first season at Jack Kent Cooke Stadium (now FedEx Field); maybe the walls at RFK had more give. Regardless, Frerotte hurt his neck and was essentially done for the year. The game ended in a tie. (Also notable about the game was that with 48 seconds left in overtime, the reliably petulant Michael Westbrook took off his helmet to argue a call and got flagged for 15, pushing the Skins out of field-goal range. It was his signature moment as a Redskin, except for the time he beat up Stephen Davis in training camp.)
Frerotte was to return for the 1998 season but wouldn't stay long, as the carousel had begun to pick up speed. Over the ensuing seven seasons it would spin madly through five coaches and a dozen quarterbacks. Other teams may have played more quarterbacks during the period, owing to injuries or free-agent losses. But no club switched QBs based on coaches' whims or owner's box pressure more frequently than the Redskins. This team goes through quarterbacks like digital cameras go through batteries.
The 1998 season began with Frerotte the starter. It also started with seven consecutive losses. Paper Bag City in the stands at the Cookie. Frerotte went to the bench, and 28-year-old Trent Green became the starter. Green put up acceptable numbers (55 percent completions, 3400 yards and, most important, 23 TDs against only 11 interceptions), and it appeared the Redskins had their quarterback of the future. So naturally the team lost him in free agency. He signed with St. Louis, which had decided Tony Banks (remember that name) was not the answer.
The loss of Green was tempered somewhat by the signing of Brad Johnson, who had done well in Minnesota before getting thrown off Denny Green's own carousel in favor of Randall Cunningham, who would later be tossed for Jeff George (remember that name), who in turn would lose his job to Daunte Culpepper, but not before Green played footsie with Dan Marino. Got all that? The upshot was that with Brad Johnson at quarterback, Tre Johnson providing Pro Bowl protection, Stephen Davis developing into a featured back, rookie Champ Bailey turning into a shutdown corner, and new owner Dan Snyder not yet ready to start playing with the buttons, the team finished 10-6 and won the NFC East and its first playoff game.
With the Redskins seemingly poised to take the next step in 2000, the team signed as free agents the declining Bruce Smith, the decrepit Mark Carrier, the disinterested Deion Sanders and the disastrous Jeff George (as a "backup"). They thus ensured that that next step would be taken on surgically repaired, arthritic knees. On the first drive in the opening game, the Redskins offense marched straight down the field and scored a TD on the Panthers. And that was about it for 2000. Though the team started 6-2, someone upstairs wanted to see George play. In George went. Down went the season. A 2-6 finish got Turner fired (when the team was still 7-6), and interim coach Terry Robiskie came in to mop up.
George's ridiculous contract meant that the next coach, Marty Schottenheimer, was obligated to make him the starter in 2001. When a quarterback known for a huge arm and a tiny head is asked to run a short passing game, you can predict the results. George, whose most notable accomplishment in Washington was declaring that leadership is an overrated quality in a quarterback, was cut after two games, which the Redskins lost 30-3 and 37-0. The backup was newly signed Tony Banks. A year earlier, the Ravens, like the Rams, had decided that Banks wasn't the answer. And the Ravens, like the Rams, won the Super Bowl after doing so. The Redskins had no choice but to make him their answer. And to make newly signed Kent Graham their backup answer. At this point, rookie Sage Rosenfels, a fifth-round draft choice, had the most experience in Schottenheimer's system. It's no surprise then, that after five games, the team was 0-5 and had been outscored 135-25, including a 45-13 loss in Week 3 to the Trent Green-led Chiefs. The Skins won their next five and finished 8-8. Schottenheimer had patched up his differences with some of the veterans, and the club looked ready to move forward. But Snyder's longtime crush, Steve Spurrier, was looking for an NFL job, so Marty was out.
Banks was out, too, and was off to Dallas, where Bill Parcells made an example of him by cutting him before he even got to camp. For 2002, Spurrier figured that the key to the offense that was so successful in college was putting it in the hands of two quarterbacks who had failed in the NFL: Florida alumni Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerffel. Rookie Patrick Ramsey was also in camp, because Snyder had wanted to pick a quarterback in the first round, regardless of whether there were any QBs worthy of a first-round selection available. Spurrier never seemed to like Ramsey but appeared resigned to having to play him at some point. Rosenfels moved on to Miami, where today he's third on the depth chart behind Gus Frerotte (there he is again!). The University of Florida guys immediately endeared themselves to the city by letting Spurrier give them Joe Theismann's and Sonny Jurgensen's jersey numbers (7 for Wuerffel, 9 for Matthews). That didn't go over well, and they got 17 and 6 instead. Of the two, Matthews showed the most promise, so Spurrier was determined to play Wuerffel. All three quarterbacks got playing time in the Fun N' Gun offense, and the Redskins finished 7-9, despite the Fun N' Gun offense.
By 2003, Matthews and Wuerffel were gone, and Ramsey was the starter. Washington watched with gruesome fascination as Ramsey was beaten within an inch of his life every Sunday and Spurrier slowly came unglued. Ramsey lasted 12 weeks, which frankly was a miracle, and the far-less-talented Hasselbeck brother, Tim, took over. Spurrier tried to talk Wuerffel into coming back. Wuerffel, however, knew he was done, which is the sort of thing you really expect the coach to figure out before the player. The Redskins and their $25 million coach finished 5-11, the team's worst record in nine years. Unable to cut his own throat with his visor brim, Spurrier quit instead.
Joe Gibbs, the legendary Redskins coach and really the only trick Snyder had left to pull out of the hat, returned to the team in 2004. His first acquisition was quarterback Mark Brunell. Though no one else wanted Brunell, though he had replaced by a rookie in Jacksonville, though he was in his mid-30s and five years removed from his last Pro Bowl season, the Redskins gave him an $8.6 million signing bonus that rendered him uncuttable. He was also unplayable. On the season's first play from scrimmage, Brunell handed off to Clinton Portis, who ran 60-some yards for a touchdown. It was Brunell's best work of the year. Pretty soon Ramsey was playing again. It wasn't until the 13th game of the season that the team scored 19 points in a game. The record: 6-10. Better than Spurrier's the year before, at least!
Which brings us to today. The preseason has folks in DC muttering again. Ramsey will start, but Brunell is on the bench, and the Redskins traded up in the draft to get Jason Campbell. Snyder's going to want to see him play, as will Gibbs.
Gus Frerotte, Jeff Hostetler, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Tony Banks, Kent Graham, Shane Matthews, Danny Wuerffel, Patrick Ramsey, Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell. Norv Turner, Terry Robiskie, Marty Schottenheimer, Steve Spurrier, Joe Gibbs. The coaches change, the names change, the seasons change, but the carousel turns, turns, turns.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
Preseason Super Bowl data dump!
As the 2005 NFL season gets underway, fans of every team have hope. Or so they say. This could be the year your boys will win it all. Or so you say. What many don't realize is that, buried in the regular season, there are clues as to who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy come February. See, it's not who you beat, not how you win. No, it's how you lose.
BIGGEST REGULAR SEASON LOSSES
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
Conclusion: Anyone can have a really bad game. Or in the case of the 1979 Steelers, two really bad games. It's best to get them out of your system early. Unless you're the 1988 49ers and you go into the last week of the season battling for a playoff spot and then get blown out the door by one of the very teams you're battling. In that case, you're just lucky the entire league is playing aimless ball, perhaps still logy from the strike.
FEWEST POINTS IN A REGULAR SEASON GAME
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
Conclusions: If you're going to go and get shut out, do it early in the season. If all you can muster is a field goal, the other guys can't score more than one touchdown. You're going to need a great defense if your kicker is your offense's fantasy player of the year. (The Ravens scored 6 points or less in four games in 2000 and lost all four.) Cut Lawyer Milloy at the start of camp, not the end. Or cut him in June.
What happens when teams face each other in the regular season and then in the Super Bowl? Well ...
REGULAR SEASON LOSSES AVENGED IN SUPER BOWL
TEAMS BEATING SAME FOE IN REGULAR SEASON, SUPER BOWL
Conclusion: Hey man, the statistics don't lie. If you think your team might wind up playing a given week's opponent again in the Super Bowl, you're 50% better off losing that regular season game than winning it. Preferably by 3 points or so. So keep this in mind when, say, New England plays Atlanta, or when Minnesota plays Pittsburgh, or when Philadelphia plays ... I don't know, San Diego? This isn't me talking here, it's history.
TEAMS NEVER TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
Conclusion: You lose to any of these teams, start looking forward to next year.
TEAMS TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
TWICE IN THE REGULAR SEASON
Conclusion: Hm. I guess it's a good sign if you lose twice to the 2002 Saints, '95 Redskins or '83 Seahawks. What really jumps out at me is that in the seven NFL seasons that I've been living in Washington, the Redskins have gone 1-13 against the Cowboys. They can't beat Dallas even when the Cowboys are dreadful. But in 1995, the 6-10 -- 6-10! -- Redskins beat Dallas twice. Dallas lost four games that year: to the Eagles (10-6, No. 1 Wild Card), to the 49ers (11-5, NFC West champs) and twice to the Redskins. Heath Shuler started one of those games. There's nothing to be learned from this statistic. Science is about recognizing the limits of your data.
BIGGEST REGULAR SEASON LOSSES
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
| PTS. | SB CHAMP-TO-BE | LOST TO | SCORE | WEEK |
| 32 | 1994 49ers | Eagles | 40-8 | 5 |
| 31 | 2003 Patriots | Bills | 31-0 | 1 |
| 31 | 1976 Raiders | Patriots | 48-17 | 4 |
| 28 | 1979 Steelers | Chargers | 35-7 | 12 |
| 24 | 1992 Cowboys | Eagles | 31-7 | 5 |
| 24 | 1979 Steelers | Bengals | 34-10 | 7 |
| 22 | 1988 49ers | Rams | 38-16 | 16 |
| 20 | 2001 Patriots | Dolphins | 30-20 | 4 |
| 20 | 1970 Colts | Chiefs | 44-24 | 2 |
FEWEST POINTS IN A REGULAR SEASON GAME
BY AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
| PTS. | SB CHAMP-TO-BE | LOST TO | SCORE | WEEK |
| 0 | 2003 Patriots | Bills | 31-0 | 1 |
| 0 | 1974 Steelers | Raiders | 17-0 | 3 |
| 3 | 2001 Patriots | Jets | 10-3 | 2 |
| 3 | 2000 Ravens | Redskins | 10-3 | 7 |
| 3 | 1990 Giants | 49ers | 7-3 | 13 |
| 3 | 1988 49ers | Raiders | 9-3 | 11 |
| 3 | 1975 Steelers | Rams | 10-3 | 14 |
| 3 | 1973 Dolphins | Colts | 16-3 | 13 |
What happens when teams face each other in the regular season and then in the Super Bowl? Well ...
REGULAR SEASON LOSSES AVENGED IN SUPER BOWL
| SEASON | SB CHAMP-TO-BE | OPPONENT | RS RESULT | WEEK | SB RESULT |
| 2001 | Patriots | Rams | 24-17, STL | 10 | 20-17, NE |
| 1999 | Rams | Titans | 24-21, TEN | 8 | 23-16, STL |
| 1993 | Cowboys | Bills | 13-10, BUF | 2 | 30-13, DAL |
| 1990 | Giants | Bills | 17-13, BUF | 15 | 20-19, NYG |
| 1983 | Raiders | Redskins | 37-35, WSH | 5 | 38-9, LA |
| 1980 | Raiders | Eagles | 10-7, PHI | 12 | 27-10, OAK |
| SEASON | SB CHAMP-TO-BE | OPPONENT | RS RESULT | WEEK | SB RESULT |
| 1994 | 49ers | Chargers | 19-16, SF | 15 | 49-26, SF |
| 1986 | Giants | Broncos | 19-16, NYG | 12 | 39-20, NYG |
| 1985 | Bears | Patriots | 20-7, CHI | 2 | 46-10, CHI |
| 1981 | 49ers | Bengals | 21-3, SF | 14 | 26-21, SF |
TEAMS NEVER TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
| Panthers | Buccaneers | Ravens |
| Texans | Jaguars |
TEAMS TO BEAT AN EVENTUAL SUPER BOWL WINNER
TWICE IN THE REGULAR SEASON
| SEASON | TEAM | SB CHAMP-TO-BE | RS SCORES |
| 2002 | Saints | Buccaneers | 26-20, 23-20 |
| 1995 | Redskins | Cowboys | 27-23, 24-17 |
| 1983 | Seahawks | Raiders | 38-36, 34-21 |
Monday, September 05, 2005
Holding out for a hero
When a player (a drafted rookie, for example) does not have a signed contract, he is under no obligation to report to camp. When a player does in fact have a contract, one that he has signed, he does have a legal obligation to report. It's unfair to use the same term -- "holdout" -- to refer to these dissimilar circumstances.
Adam Smith, TE, London
I believe that NFL players should be well compensated for the punishment they put their bodies through. I believe they are entitled to a substantial chunk of the revenue that their dangerous labor produces. But I have long tired of the demand by NFL players and other pro athletes that they should be allowed to pursue whatever dollar amount they can get in the "free market."
The NFL is not a free market. No sports league is a free market. Never has been. And this has nothing to do with the structure of the collective bargaining agreement.
Say I own a muffler shop. If you're my competitor, you can lure my best installers away by paying them higher salaries. They may then go to work for you, in your shop -- but only in your shop. You can't send them to my shop to install mufflers in front of my customers.
Also, if you're my competitor in the muffler business, your aim is to run me and your other competition out of business. You don't need me to stay in business for you to continue installing mufflers.
And if you're a talented muffler installer, and you don't think you're getting paid enough by me or any other shop, then you can go down the street and start your own shop.
Let's contrast this with the NFL. League rules force me to bring my competitors into my establishment and forces my competitors to let me come into theirs. If the NFL were truly a free market, you couldn't force us to compete with you. I could just decide that I didn't want to play you. Maybe nobody would want to play you. After all, you took our best talent. And then what will all your spending have gotten you?
In the NFL, your aim in taking away my best talent is not to drive me out of business. Indeed, to ruin your competitors is to ruin yourself, because you'll have no one to play. Your team is worthless without mine and the others in the league. We are not separate businesses. We are divisions within the same business.
Finally, there are 32 teams in the NFL. Anyone is welcome to assemble their own pro football team, of course. But good luck trying to get anyone from the NFL to play you. The NFL is a closed economy.
Yes, if the NFL were truly a free market, there would be no salary cap, no franchise tag. But there would also be no union, no guaranteed minimums. Existing teams would be driven out of business, and new ones would be killed on the vine. There would thus be fewer teams, which means fewer jobs, which means greater competition among workers, which means lower salaries.
I write all this because of something I heard on Dan Patrick's radio show last week. Robert Smith, the former Vikings running back, said something I had never heard before. He said that nowhere in the collective bargaining agreement does it say NFL contracts cannot be guaranteed. If all contracts were guaranteed, he said, no one would get anything longer than a one-year contract, because it would be insane to sign a player to seven guaranteed years when he could blow out his knee next week.
Players want both guaranteed money and long-term deals, but owners will never, ever give them both. Ever. Let me say it again: Never. So you get the system we have now: Players get their signing bonus up front. That's their guaranteed money. (Listening, Maurice Clarett?) Hope they enjoy it. They also get a long-term deal, if that's important to them. But they can be cut whenever the team wants. That's the trade-off for the bonus.
Are there ways to a player could cut-proof his contract? Sure. I bet there are. But I doubt agents would be interested in pursuing that option, because it would mean less money up front. Better to keep making noise about the charade of the free market.
But whatever.
The NFL is not a free market. No sports league is a free market. Never has been. And this has nothing to do with the structure of the collective bargaining agreement.
Say I own a muffler shop. If you're my competitor, you can lure my best installers away by paying them higher salaries. They may then go to work for you, in your shop -- but only in your shop. You can't send them to my shop to install mufflers in front of my customers.
Also, if you're my competitor in the muffler business, your aim is to run me and your other competition out of business. You don't need me to stay in business for you to continue installing mufflers.
And if you're a talented muffler installer, and you don't think you're getting paid enough by me or any other shop, then you can go down the street and start your own shop.
Let's contrast this with the NFL. League rules force me to bring my competitors into my establishment and forces my competitors to let me come into theirs. If the NFL were truly a free market, you couldn't force us to compete with you. I could just decide that I didn't want to play you. Maybe nobody would want to play you. After all, you took our best talent. And then what will all your spending have gotten you?
In the NFL, your aim in taking away my best talent is not to drive me out of business. Indeed, to ruin your competitors is to ruin yourself, because you'll have no one to play. Your team is worthless without mine and the others in the league. We are not separate businesses. We are divisions within the same business.
Finally, there are 32 teams in the NFL. Anyone is welcome to assemble their own pro football team, of course. But good luck trying to get anyone from the NFL to play you. The NFL is a closed economy.
Yes, if the NFL were truly a free market, there would be no salary cap, no franchise tag. But there would also be no union, no guaranteed minimums. Existing teams would be driven out of business, and new ones would be killed on the vine. There would thus be fewer teams, which means fewer jobs, which means greater competition among workers, which means lower salaries.
I write all this because of something I heard on Dan Patrick's radio show last week. Robert Smith, the former Vikings running back, said something I had never heard before. He said that nowhere in the collective bargaining agreement does it say NFL contracts cannot be guaranteed. If all contracts were guaranteed, he said, no one would get anything longer than a one-year contract, because it would be insane to sign a player to seven guaranteed years when he could blow out his knee next week.
Players want both guaranteed money and long-term deals, but owners will never, ever give them both. Ever. Let me say it again: Never. So you get the system we have now: Players get their signing bonus up front. That's their guaranteed money. (Listening, Maurice Clarett?) Hope they enjoy it. They also get a long-term deal, if that's important to them. But they can be cut whenever the team wants. That's the trade-off for the bonus.
Are there ways to a player could cut-proof his contract? Sure. I bet there are. But I doubt agents would be interested in pursuing that option, because it would mean less money up front. Better to keep making noise about the charade of the free market.
But whatever.
Sunday, September 04, 2005
Season previews in 50 words or less
BALTIMORE: Unless the Competition Committee votes to let receivers carry lacrosse sticks, it doesn't matter who Kyle Boller is throwing the ball to.
BUFFALO: Fact: J.P. Losman is the reincarnation of Kenny Dorsey
CINCINNATI: 1-0. 1-1. 2-1. 3-1. Palmer for MVP! 3-2. 3-3. 3-4. 4-4. 4-5. Bye week. 4-6. 4-7. 4-8. Kitna for MVP! 5-8. 6-8. 7-8. 8-8. I'm sorry. The numbers don't lie.
CLEVELAND: If Ohio had a mandatory knee-brace law, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
DENVER: The definition of insanity is putting Ron Dayne in the backfield and expecting different results.
HOUSTON: This is the year the Texans take the next step. I guarantee it. Just you watch. 2005. Next step.
INDIANAPOLIS: People keep talking about Marino's Dolphins, but doesn't that just give short shrift to Fouts' Chargers?
JACKSONVILLE: Late in the season, in the thick of the playoff hunt, playing at home in front of 15,000 empty seats.
KANSAS CITY: The Joe Montana era was all of two years long, yet those are "the good old days" in Kansas City.
MIAMI: Scott Mitchell played well for the Dolphins after Marino went down, then cashed in. Hey, look who's here: A.J. Feeley!
NEW ENGLAND: Last season, Corey Dillon came to Foxboro determined to prove he had been unfairly labeled a malcontent. This season, David Terrell came to Foxboro determined to prove he had been unfairly labeled a malcontent. Corey Dillon should have another great year.
NEW YORK: The Jets are high on this Pennington kid and are looking forward to seeing what he can do.
OAKLAND: Randy Moss, blah blah, LaMont Jordan, blah blah. 7-9.
PITTSBURGH: Here's hoping the name Mark Fidrych doesn't mean anything in Pittsburgh this year.
SAN DIEGO: Say Drew Brees starts really slow, then Philip Rivers comes in and pukes in the punch bowl. There's the Chargers we know and love.
TENNESSEE: All that talk about Travis Henry, and he ends up superfluous again.
ARIZONA: If Kurt Warner doesn't do something stupid and get replaced, Denny Green will do something stupid and replace Kurt Warner.
ATLANTA: Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the NFL and will leave a beautiful corpse.
CAROLINA: Wearing throwback '90s uniforms this year, again.
CHICAGO: Expect Kyle Orton to be starting as soon as the Bears are out of playoff contention. What? Imagine that.
DALLAS: If Freeman McNeil were still playing, it'd be in Dallas.
DETROIT: You can't tell me Joey Harrington wasn't pleased to see Steve Mariucci's new best friend break his leg.
GREEN BAY: Aaron Rodgers will learn from the master how to throw the crazy heave-ho when the line can't stop the rush.
MINNESOTA: When "turning it around" means starting 3-6.
NEW ORLEANS: The Saints won't play any better this year, but life has a way of keeping crummy football in perspective. Much love.
NEW YORK: Ken Brett had a fine career, too.
PHILADELPHIA: Many athletes are willing to take less money if it means a chance at a ring. Just saying.
SAN FRANCISCO: There's nothing wrong with sitting a high draft choice in order to "win now." But why are the 49ers sitting Alex Smith?
ST. LOUIS: Mike Martz goes for two in the third quarter, loses by one. Rinse. Repeat.
SEATTLE: 9-7. 6-10. 9-7. 7-9. 10-6. 9-7. This is the year Seattle finally goes 8-8.
TAMPA BAY: Brian Griese and Chris Simms tire of Coach asking whether Dad has anything left in the tank.
WASHINGTON: There's a nascent QB controversy between Patrick Ramsey and Mark Brunell. I mean, think about that.
BUFFALO: Fact: J.P. Losman is the reincarnation of Kenny Dorsey
CINCINNATI: 1-0. 1-1. 2-1. 3-1. Palmer for MVP! 3-2. 3-3. 3-4. 4-4. 4-5. Bye week. 4-6. 4-7. 4-8. Kitna for MVP! 5-8. 6-8. 7-8. 8-8. I'm sorry. The numbers don't lie.
CLEVELAND: If Ohio had a mandatory knee-brace law, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
DENVER: The definition of insanity is putting Ron Dayne in the backfield and expecting different results.
HOUSTON: This is the year the Texans take the next step. I guarantee it. Just you watch. 2005. Next step.
INDIANAPOLIS: People keep talking about Marino's Dolphins, but doesn't that just give short shrift to Fouts' Chargers?
JACKSONVILLE: Late in the season, in the thick of the playoff hunt, playing at home in front of 15,000 empty seats.
KANSAS CITY: The Joe Montana era was all of two years long, yet those are "the good old days" in Kansas City.
MIAMI: Scott Mitchell played well for the Dolphins after Marino went down, then cashed in. Hey, look who's here: A.J. Feeley!
NEW ENGLAND: Last season, Corey Dillon came to Foxboro determined to prove he had been unfairly labeled a malcontent. This season, David Terrell came to Foxboro determined to prove he had been unfairly labeled a malcontent. Corey Dillon should have another great year.
NEW YORK: The Jets are high on this Pennington kid and are looking forward to seeing what he can do.
OAKLAND: Randy Moss, blah blah, LaMont Jordan, blah blah. 7-9.
PITTSBURGH: Here's hoping the name Mark Fidrych doesn't mean anything in Pittsburgh this year.
SAN DIEGO: Say Drew Brees starts really slow, then Philip Rivers comes in and pukes in the punch bowl. There's the Chargers we know and love.
TENNESSEE: All that talk about Travis Henry, and he ends up superfluous again.
ARIZONA: If Kurt Warner doesn't do something stupid and get replaced, Denny Green will do something stupid and replace Kurt Warner.
ATLANTA: Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the NFL and will leave a beautiful corpse.
CAROLINA: Wearing throwback '90s uniforms this year, again.
CHICAGO: Expect Kyle Orton to be starting as soon as the Bears are out of playoff contention. What? Imagine that.
DALLAS: If Freeman McNeil were still playing, it'd be in Dallas.
DETROIT: You can't tell me Joey Harrington wasn't pleased to see Steve Mariucci's new best friend break his leg.
GREEN BAY: Aaron Rodgers will learn from the master how to throw the crazy heave-ho when the line can't stop the rush.
MINNESOTA: When "turning it around" means starting 3-6.
NEW ORLEANS: The Saints won't play any better this year, but life has a way of keeping crummy football in perspective. Much love.
NEW YORK: Ken Brett had a fine career, too.
PHILADELPHIA: Many athletes are willing to take less money if it means a chance at a ring. Just saying.
SAN FRANCISCO: There's nothing wrong with sitting a high draft choice in order to "win now." But why are the 49ers sitting Alex Smith?
ST. LOUIS: Mike Martz goes for two in the third quarter, loses by one. Rinse. Repeat.
SEATTLE: 9-7. 6-10. 9-7. 7-9. 10-6. 9-7. This is the year Seattle finally goes 8-8.
TAMPA BAY: Brian Griese and Chris Simms tire of Coach asking whether Dad has anything left in the tank.
WASHINGTON: There's a nascent QB controversy between Patrick Ramsey and Mark Brunell. I mean, think about that.
Lowlights of the preseason
So much happens in the preseason, yet so little means anything.
THROWS LIKE A GIRL: I have no idea how anyone could have looked at the three-headed monster that was the 2004 Chicago Bears' reserve quarterbacking corps and decided that any of these guys was the answer. Regardless of what the qquestion might be. Yet as the preseason opened, all three of these guys had their names on the back of NFL jerseys (good luck finding them at Sports Authority, tho). Chad Hutchinson was penciled in as the Bears' starter after Rex Grossman got hurt. Jonathan Quinn, who spent six years working toward his chance to start and blew it pretty much immediately, was on the Chiefs roster. And Craig Krenzel -- Craig Krenzel! was third on the Bengals depth chart behind Carson Palmer and Jon Kitna.
This is preposterous. As a trio, these boys had a passer rating of 63.9, meaning that all of them, pooling their talents, made for a lousy quarterback. Why would you want one-third of a lousy quarterback?
It appears sanity has two-thirds prevailed. Hutchinson, given his chance to be The Man, promptly threw it to the opposing cornerback and was flushed out the bottom of the depth chart. It's not a good sign when a team keeps four quarterbacks on its 53-man roster, and you aren't one of them. Quinn, meanwhile, did a little bit of this, a little bit of that, and got cut. The Chiefs decided they'd be better off with Damon Huard and Todd Collins backing up the somewhat-wobbly Trent Green, which tells you all you need to know about Jonathan Quinn.
But amazingly, future Nobel Prize winner Craig Krenzel will go into the 2005 regular season drawing a full paycheck. It's tempting to say it doesn't much matter who's No.3 in Cincinnati, because Palmer is starting to look like the real deal and Kitna may well be the best backup in the game, but remember, Krenzel started last year as a glimmer in nobody's eye in Chicago, yet still managed to start a handful of games. The man is a molecular biologist. God knows what he's slipping into the FroYo at the training table.
IT'S NOT THAT DIFFICULT: Here are some things I know ...
I know that when a punt touches a player on the receiving team but that player does not establish possession, then it is a muff, not a fumble. I know that you cannot advance a muff.
I know that pass rushers are not allowed to slap the quarterback in the head. I know that this was once not a penalty, but it is now. (And yes, I know -- I KNOW -- that "pretty soon you're not going to be able to touch the quarterback at all.")
I know that "down by contact" is not subject to replay review, and I know that even when a call is subject to review, if it occurs in the last two minutes of a half, then it is up to the booth official, not coaches, to initiate a replay.
I know these things. You know these things. Why do the ninnies who call the preseason games not know these things? Watching preseason on NFL Network is really something, because you get one team's local announcers in the first half, and the other team's in the second half. Many of these guys are national pros tuning up for the regular season: During the second half of the Bucs-Titans game, you got to hear the Bucs' team of Fox's Chris Meyers and ESPN's Ron Jaworski. But during the first half of the same game, you got Team Titans: Eddie George (who was all right, actually) and some local sports guy. Yee. The locals seem to have trouble grasping the rules. And they seem to judge NFL players by their fantasy value. So too often during the preseason, I found myself screaming at the screen. There's no need to scream during the preseason.
THEY'LL PLAY THE JETS FOR HOMECOMING: Some teams' redesigned uniforms (Broncos, Patriots, Eagles and, surprisingly, Cardinals) are better than what came before. Others are worse (Seahawks, Bills and, not surprisingly, Bengals). But whether the new unis are bootiful are boot-oogly, someone will always declare them to look like college or high school uniforms. That's not always fair, or true. The Lions' new alternate jerseys, with the blue numbers on black, are rather handsome. They really pop. But in the final analysis, they have an air of desperation about them. I say "Arena Football League." The Giants, who last year trotted out ridiculous red home jerseys, now have a road jersey with red numbers and red stripes on white. Look like barber poles out there. Yes, they look like college uniforms, but NAIA.
THROWS LIKE A GIRL: I have no idea how anyone could have looked at the three-headed monster that was the 2004 Chicago Bears' reserve quarterbacking corps and decided that any of these guys was the answer. Regardless of what the qquestion might be. Yet as the preseason opened, all three of these guys had their names on the back of NFL jerseys (good luck finding them at Sports Authority, tho). Chad Hutchinson was penciled in as the Bears' starter after Rex Grossman got hurt. Jonathan Quinn, who spent six years working toward his chance to start and blew it pretty much immediately, was on the Chiefs roster. And Craig Krenzel -- Craig Krenzel! was third on the Bengals depth chart behind Carson Palmer and Jon Kitna.
This is preposterous. As a trio, these boys had a passer rating of 63.9, meaning that all of them, pooling their talents, made for a lousy quarterback. Why would you want one-third of a lousy quarterback?
It appears sanity has two-thirds prevailed. Hutchinson, given his chance to be The Man, promptly threw it to the opposing cornerback and was flushed out the bottom of the depth chart. It's not a good sign when a team keeps four quarterbacks on its 53-man roster, and you aren't one of them. Quinn, meanwhile, did a little bit of this, a little bit of that, and got cut. The Chiefs decided they'd be better off with Damon Huard and Todd Collins backing up the somewhat-wobbly Trent Green, which tells you all you need to know about Jonathan Quinn.
But amazingly, future Nobel Prize winner Craig Krenzel will go into the 2005 regular season drawing a full paycheck. It's tempting to say it doesn't much matter who's No.3 in Cincinnati, because Palmer is starting to look like the real deal and Kitna may well be the best backup in the game, but remember, Krenzel started last year as a glimmer in nobody's eye in Chicago, yet still managed to start a handful of games. The man is a molecular biologist. God knows what he's slipping into the FroYo at the training table.
IT'S NOT THAT DIFFICULT: Here are some things I know ...
I know that when a punt touches a player on the receiving team but that player does not establish possession, then it is a muff, not a fumble. I know that you cannot advance a muff.
I know that pass rushers are not allowed to slap the quarterback in the head. I know that this was once not a penalty, but it is now. (And yes, I know -- I KNOW -- that "pretty soon you're not going to be able to touch the quarterback at all.")
I know that "down by contact" is not subject to replay review, and I know that even when a call is subject to review, if it occurs in the last two minutes of a half, then it is up to the booth official, not coaches, to initiate a replay.
I know these things. You know these things. Why do the ninnies who call the preseason games not know these things? Watching preseason on NFL Network is really something, because you get one team's local announcers in the first half, and the other team's in the second half. Many of these guys are national pros tuning up for the regular season: During the second half of the Bucs-Titans game, you got to hear the Bucs' team of Fox's Chris Meyers and ESPN's Ron Jaworski. But during the first half of the same game, you got Team Titans: Eddie George (who was all right, actually) and some local sports guy. Yee. The locals seem to have trouble grasping the rules. And they seem to judge NFL players by their fantasy value. So too often during the preseason, I found myself screaming at the screen. There's no need to scream during the preseason.
THEY'LL PLAY THE JETS FOR HOMECOMING: Some teams' redesigned uniforms (Broncos, Patriots, Eagles and, surprisingly, Cardinals) are better than what came before. Others are worse (Seahawks, Bills and, not surprisingly, Bengals). But whether the new unis are bootiful are boot-oogly, someone will always declare them to look like college or high school uniforms. That's not always fair, or true. The Lions' new alternate jerseys, with the blue numbers on black, are rather handsome. They really pop. But in the final analysis, they have an air of desperation about them. I say "Arena Football League." The Giants, who last year trotted out ridiculous red home jerseys, now have a road jersey with red numbers and red stripes on white. Look like barber poles out there. Yes, they look like college uniforms, but NAIA.
Tuesday, August 23, 2005
Great moments in preseason analysis
"That's what Bill Parcells wanted to see from this offense: Taking the ball, moving it down the field and scoring a touchdown."
--John Madden, Cowboys at Seahawks, 2nd quarter
--John Madden, Cowboys at Seahawks, 2nd quarter
Tuesday, June 14, 2005
P in his Koffee
Monday Morning Quarterback, Peter King's weekly "football" column on SI.com, is occasionally good, frequently bad, and always -- always -- infuriating. The most dependably infuriating part, of course, is the coffee talk. Every week, King wastes a few sentences discussing his latest infatuation, peeve or observation based on his latest visit to Starbucks. He labels these musings "Coffeenerdness."
Now, the problem is not that a sports columnist or commentator shouldn't be writing about coffee. Tony Kornheiser has made a lucrative second career out of discussing everything except athletes. Jim Rome is always funniest when he's talking about something other than sports. No, the problem is that King is only pretending to write about coffee. What he's really writing about, of course, is his favorite subject: himself. More specifically, what a connoisseur he is.
By labeling these items "Coffeenerdness," King pretends to let us in on a joke: Look at what a geek I am about my coffee! I'm such a nerd that I talk about the right balance of milk flavor and coffee flavor! Laugh along with me! But read closely! Look at how much I know about coffee! Look at what a discriminating palate I have! Recognize how little you know about coffee compared with me!
Coffee talk, I'm fine with. But the phony self-deprecating BS, that's what I can't stand.
Now, the problem is not that a sports columnist or commentator shouldn't be writing about coffee. Tony Kornheiser has made a lucrative second career out of discussing everything except athletes. Jim Rome is always funniest when he's talking about something other than sports. No, the problem is that King is only pretending to write about coffee. What he's really writing about, of course, is his favorite subject: himself. More specifically, what a connoisseur he is.
By labeling these items "Coffeenerdness," King pretends to let us in on a joke: Look at what a geek I am about my coffee! I'm such a nerd that I talk about the right balance of milk flavor and coffee flavor! Laugh along with me! But read closely! Look at how much I know about coffee! Look at what a discriminating palate I have! Recognize how little you know about coffee compared with me!
Coffee talk, I'm fine with. But the phony self-deprecating BS, that's what I can't stand.
Tuesday, May 31, 2005
Non-football item
I don't expect science fiction to be "realistic." I wouldn't watch a "realistic" science fiction movie. The spaceships couldn't launch in bad weather, or could be destroyed in orbit by a loose ball bearing. It'd take a thousand years to get from one star to the next, even with sequels. But I do expect a science fiction movie to be internally consistent. Set the ground rules however you want -- go ahead and give Jedis telekinesis, or put a spaceship at Area 51 -- but for pete's sake. the characters have to live by them.
I just saw The Chronicles of Riddick on the HBO. At one point, mercenaries take the fugitive Riddick to a prison on the planet Crematoria. We're told that on this planet, it's 700 degrees on the day side and "300 below" on the night side. The only time it's safe to be outside is just before dawn. When the sun rises, the ground cooks and the air catches fire (more or less). When the sun sets, everything freezes solid. Those are the ground rules.
If I demanded realism, I'd wonder how in hell Crematoria has a breathable atmosphere. I'd also ask how anyone managed to build anything on the planet, even an underground prison. But under the ground rules, Crematoria does have breathable air and an underground prison. So I won't quiblble.
The problem comes after Riddick and the other convicts break out of the prison. They light out across the scorched earth (or, the scorched crematoria, I suppose), headed for the hangar where the mercs have parked their ship. The sun rises. The air begins to explode. One of the convicts is vaporized. It's 700 degrees now. Riddick and his surviving compatriots, as well as the fleeing prison guards and the newly arrived Necromongers, survive by staying in the shade.
Now, when it's hot out, it's hot whether you're standing in the sun or not. When it's 700 degrees and the air itself is bursting into flame, standing in the shade is not going to help you. Even if you wear shorts.
Further, in order to rescue a friend who has gotten trapped in the sun, Riddick pours water over his head, which makes him immune to the heat. We've just seen a man have the flesh vaporized off his body, and Riddick fends off 700 degree worth of solar oomph with a bottle of water. Must have been Propel.
By the by, I couldn't help but notice how similar the Necromongers were to the invading aliens(?) of Dean Koontz's The Taking. But to point that out would make me a total science fiction geek, and we can't have that.
I just saw The Chronicles of Riddick on the HBO. At one point, mercenaries take the fugitive Riddick to a prison on the planet Crematoria. We're told that on this planet, it's 700 degrees on the day side and "300 below" on the night side. The only time it's safe to be outside is just before dawn. When the sun rises, the ground cooks and the air catches fire (more or less). When the sun sets, everything freezes solid. Those are the ground rules.
If I demanded realism, I'd wonder how in hell Crematoria has a breathable atmosphere. I'd also ask how anyone managed to build anything on the planet, even an underground prison. But under the ground rules, Crematoria does have breathable air and an underground prison. So I won't quiblble.
The problem comes after Riddick and the other convicts break out of the prison. They light out across the scorched earth (or, the scorched crematoria, I suppose), headed for the hangar where the mercs have parked their ship. The sun rises. The air begins to explode. One of the convicts is vaporized. It's 700 degrees now. Riddick and his surviving compatriots, as well as the fleeing prison guards and the newly arrived Necromongers, survive by staying in the shade.
Now, when it's hot out, it's hot whether you're standing in the sun or not. When it's 700 degrees and the air itself is bursting into flame, standing in the shade is not going to help you. Even if you wear shorts.
Further, in order to rescue a friend who has gotten trapped in the sun, Riddick pours water over his head, which makes him immune to the heat. We've just seen a man have the flesh vaporized off his body, and Riddick fends off 700 degree worth of solar oomph with a bottle of water. Must have been Propel.
By the by, I couldn't help but notice how similar the Necromongers were to the invading aliens(?) of Dean Koontz's The Taking. But to point that out would make me a total science fiction geek, and we can't have that.
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